********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28460.04 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 241 CALLS 1321 TOTAL EDM= .74E-05 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 23.739 .11587E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .0000 2.3828 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 norm 1.7808 2.3295 .78408E-03 -1.5681 4 norm 1.2744 .75621 .98407E-03 -1.5685 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3297 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor 95.688 114.97 .10223E-03 -1.5512 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.6513 .57327E-03 -1.5673 8 norm .61356 .42553 .68012E-03 -1.5692 9 Prefactor 10.332 29.439 .31154E-03 -1.5644 10 norm 4.0404 .56544 .50140E-03 -1.5668 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0786 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 11.977 8.0569 .28938E-03 -1.5639 13 Prefactor 1.5670 15.654 .84989E-03 -1.5683 14 norm 3.9104 .82260 .50994E-03 -1.5668 15 Normalizat .76496 .13800 .10890 -1.0138 16 Prefactor .99833 .44704E-01 .32685E-01 -.92785 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 7.35922e-06 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00114188 2 2.98068e-06 3 2.32953 4 0.756206 5 1.27199e-05 6 114.977 7 3.65126 8 0.425528 9 29.4398 10 0.56544 11 0.000116988 12 8.05686 13 9.90566 14 0.822605 15 0.138065 16 0.0447054 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0361458 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 6.136e-01 4.255e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.983e-01 4.471e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.650e-01 1.381e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.17 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.67e-08 +/- 1.85e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.08e-05 +/- 7.49e-06 TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.33005108808e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 2.56389943375e-05 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/32676684/likelihoodResults_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9862202 delta logL = 0.049925585161 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836075 delta logL = 0.0525382881315 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .58767 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'alpha ' 2.3402 1.0000 .0000 5.0000 3 'Normalizat' .76044 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99911 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 28459.98 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 215 TOTAL EDM= .54E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .58789 7.4375 .70339E-03 .48060E-01 2 alpha 2.3402 3.6326 .41258 .10867E-03 3 Normalizat .76050 .46077E-01 .10919 .14369E-03 4 Prefactor .99905 .15236E-01 .32674E-01 -.26658E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0.587886 alpha = 2.34016 Normalizat = 0.7605 Prefactor = 0.999049 /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/pyfits/__init__.py:22: PyFITSDeprecationWarning: PyFITS is deprecated, please use astropy.io.fits PyFITSDeprecationWarning) # noqa ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28459.98 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 33 CALLS 248 TOTAL EDM= .89E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .58789 .42382 .83231E-05 -1.5693 2 alpha 2.3402 .53833 .26726E-01 -.63978E-01 3 Normalizat .76050 .13895 .48414E-03 -1.0155 4 Prefactor .99905 .47065E-01 .14438E-03 -.92761 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.86582e-09 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.423823 2 0.542593 3 0.139011 4 0.0470665 Likelihood Analysis Tool Support Contact: Daniel Kocevski (daniel.kocevski@nasa.gov) Importing modules... This is make3FGLxml version 01r0. The default diffuse model files and names are for pass 8 and assume you have v10r00p05 of the Fermi Science Tools or higher. This is make4FGLDR3xml version 01r09. The default diffuse model files and names are for P8R3, 4FGL DRs, and the default fermitools directory locations. WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/matplotlib/cbook/deprecation.py:106: MatplotlibDeprecationWarning: The mpl_toolkits.axes_grid module was deprecated in version 2.1. Use mpl_toolkits.axes_grid1 and mpl_toolkits.axisartist provies the same functionality instead. warnings.warn(message, mplDeprecation, stacklevel=1) shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836058 delta logL = 0.0525399762701 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 5.879e-01 4.238e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.340e+00 5.426e-01 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.990e-01 4.707e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.605e-01 1.390e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.19 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.34 +/- 0.54 Photon Flux (Free Index): 3.05e-08 +/- 2.21e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.03e-05 +/- 7.18e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/32676684/cmap_HighResolution_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.56e-05', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.67e-08', energy_flux2='1.03e-05', photon_flux_error='1.85e-08', dlogl='5.25e-02', energy_flux='1.08e-05', photon_flux2='3.05e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-21 19:26:22.700126', photon_index_error2='0.54', photon_index2='2.34', ts='3.08', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.33e-08', energy_flux_error2='7.18e-06', EG='0.76', time_epoch_completed='1784687182.7', return_code='0', job_id='32676684', GAL2='1.00', EG2='0.76', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='7.49e-06', photon_flux_error2='2.21e-08', ts2='3.19', photon_index='2.17' WHERE bin_id='937' AND source_name='4FGL J2157.5+3127' AND cadence='weekly'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Jul 21 19:26:23 PDT 2026 WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32677292/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/32677292/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits .....................! real 18.97 user 17.76 sys 0.30 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32677292/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32677292/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/32677292/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32677292/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/32677292/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits .....................! real 71.10 user 65.42 sys 4.31 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Extended source Cygnus Loop in ROI, make sure /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/ExtendedSources/Extended_8years/Templates/CygnusLoop.fits is the correct path to the extended template. Extended source gamma Cygni in ROI with RadialDisk spatial model. Extended source Cygnus Cocoon in ROI with RadialGaussian spatial model. Added 186 point sources and 3 extended sources If using unbinned likelihood you will need to rerun gtdiffrsp for the extended sources or rerun the makeModel function with optional argument psForce=True Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J2157.5+3127 @ 329.386 31.4552 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32677292/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32677292/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32677292/cmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=329.386 yref=31.4552 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 1.09 user 0.23 sys 0.14 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32677292/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32677292/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32677292/cmap_HighResolution_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=329.386 yref=31.4552 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.92 user 0.23 sys 0.15 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32677929/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32676929/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/32676929/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source Cygnus Cocoon adding source Cygnus Loop adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 adding source gamma Cygni Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/32676929/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits.....................! real 159.64 user 156.66 sys 1.42 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/32676929/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/32676929/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/32676929/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/32676929/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/32676929/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J2157.5+3127' 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 1.006e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/32676929/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/32676929/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/32676929/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/32676929/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/32676929/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0362352 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0409704 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .21077 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .97609E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'norm ' 1.7803 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' 1.2747 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .14463E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' 95.696 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' 3.1250 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .61368 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 10.328 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'norm ' 4.0405 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .63466E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 11.962 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 1.5650 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' 3.9106 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'Normalizat' .76505 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 16 'Prefactor ' .99827 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 28460.04 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 82 CALLS 1080 TOTAL EDM= .84E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= .6% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 24.118 .70090E-07** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .0000 2.4029 .36258E-07** at limit ** 3 norm 1.7808 2.3014 -.66074E-08 -.30407E-03 4 norm 1.2744 .77125 -.18278E-07 -.92036E-02 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3282 -.41057E-07** at limit ** 6 Prefactor 95.688 4.4517 -.11729E-07 .21751 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.5763 .12736E-07 .41636E-03 8 norm .61356 .41777 -.16506E-07 -.10741E-01 9 Prefactor 10.332 4.0040 -.31107E-07 .56423E-01 10 norm 4.0404 .56597 .15687E-07 .42039E-01 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0668 -.13830E-06** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 11.977 7.9249 -.37926E-07 -.73483E-01 13 Prefactor 1.5670 2.4280 .40121E-07 -.52673E-02 14 norm 3.9104 .82294 -.13297E-07 -.15354E-01 15 Normalizat .76496 .14126 .55169E-06 .11969E-03 16 Prefactor .99833 .47644E-01 .22130E-07 .44638E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 1.37113e-08 Prefactor = 0 norm = 1.78077 norm = 1.27438 norm = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 95.6881 Prefactor = 3.136 norm = 0.613559 Prefactor = 10.3318 norm = 4.04044 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 Prefactor = 11.9772 Prefactor = 1.56699 norm = 3.91037 Normalizat = 0.764965 Prefactor = 0.998333 868/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32676868/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/32676868/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source Cygnus Cocoon adding source Cygnus Loop adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 adding source gamma Cygni Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/32676868/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits.....................! real 163.13 user 160.21 sys 0.99 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/32676868/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/32676868/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/32676868/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/32676868/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/32676868/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J2157.5+3127' 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 1.006e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/32676868/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/32676868/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/32676868/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/32676868/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/32676868/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0362352 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0409704 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .21077 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .97609E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'norm ' 1.7803 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' 1.2747 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .14463E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' 95.696 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' 3.1250 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .61368 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 10.328 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'norm ' 4.0405 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .63466E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 11.962 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 1.5650 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' 3.9106 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'Normalizat' .76505 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 16 'Prefactor ' .99827 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0361458 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 6.136e-01 4.255e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.983e-01 4.471e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.650e-01 1.381e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.17 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.67e-08 +/- 1.85e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.08e-05 +/- 7.49e-06 TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.33005108808e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 2.56389943375e-05 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/32676724/likelihoodResults_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9862202 delta logL = 0.049925585161 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836075 delta logL = 0.0525382881315 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .58767 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'alpha ' 2.3402 1.0000 .0000 5.0000 3 'Normalizat' .76044 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99911 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 28459.98 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 215 TOTAL EDM= .54E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .58789 7.4375 .70339E-03 .48060E-01 2 alpha 2.3402 3.6326 .41258 .10867E-03 3 Normalizat .76050 .46077E-01 .10919 .14369E-03 4 Prefactor .99905 .15236E-01 .32674E-01 -.26658E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0.587886 alpha = 2.34016 Normalizat = 0.7605 Prefactor = 0.999049 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28459.98 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 33 CALLS 248 TOTAL EDM= .89E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .58789 .42382 .83231E-05 -1.5693 2 alpha 2.3402 .53833 .26726E-01 -.63978E-01 3 Normalizat .76050 .13895 .48414E-03 -1.0155 4 Prefactor .99905 .47065E-01 .14438E-03 -.92761 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.86582e-09 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.423823 2 0.542593 3 0.139011 4 0.0470665 .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 28460.04 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 82 CALLS 1080 TOTAL EDM= .84E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= .6% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 24.118 .70090E-07** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .0000 2.4029 .36258E-07** at limit ** 3 norm 1.7808 2.3014 -.66074E-08 -.30407E-03 4 norm 1.2744 .77125 -.18278E-07 -.92036E-02 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3282 -.41057E-07** at limit ** 6 Prefactor 95.688 4.4517 -.11729E-07 .21751 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.5763 .12736E-07 .41636E-03 8 norm .61356 .41777 -.16506E-07 -.10741E-01 9 Prefactor 10.332 4.0040 -.31107E-07 .56423E-01 10 norm 4.0404 .56597 .15687E-07 .42039E-01 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0668 -.13830E-06** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 11.977 7.9249 -.37926E-07 -.73483E-01 13 Prefactor 1.5670 2.4280 .40121E-07 -.52673E-02 14 norm 3.9104 .82294 -.13297E-07 -.15354E-01 15 Normalizat .76496 .14126 .55169E-06 .11969E-03 16 Prefactor .99833 .47644E-01 .22130E-07 .44638E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 1.37113e-08 Prefactor = 0 norm = 1.78077 norm = 1.27438 norm = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 95.6881 Prefactor = 3.136 norm = 0.613559 Prefactor = 10.3318 norm = 4.04044 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 Prefactor = 11.9772 Prefactor = 1.56699 norm = 3.91037 Normalizat = 0.764965 Prefactor = 0.998333 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836058 delta logL = 0.0525399762701 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 5.879e-01 4.238e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.340e+00 5.426e-01 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.990e-01 4.707e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.605e-01 1.390e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.19 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.34 +/- 0.54 Photon Flux (Free Index): 3.05e-08 +/- 2.21e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.03e-05 +/- 7.18e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/32676724/cmap_HighResolution_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.56e-05', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.67e-08', energy_flux2='1.03e-05', photon_flux_error='1.85e-08', dlogl='5.25e-02', energy_flux='1.08e-05', photon_flux2='3.05e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-21 19:27:40.571291', photon_index_error2='0.54', photon_index2='2.34', ts='3.08', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.33e-08', energy_flux_error2='7.18e-06', EG='0.76', time_epoch_completed='1784687260.57', return_code='0', job_id='32676724', GAL2='1.00', EG2='0.76', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='7.49e-06', photon_flux_error2='2.21e-08', ts2='3.19', photon_index='2.17' WHERE bin_id='937' AND source_name='4FGL J2157.5+3127' AND cadence='weekly'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Jul 21 19:27:41 PDT 2026 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28460.04 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 241 CALLS 1321 TOTAL EDM= .74E-05 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 23.739 .11587E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .0000 2.3828 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 norm 1.7808 2.3295 .78408E-03 -1.5681 4 norm 1.2744 .75621 .98407E-03 -1.5685 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3297 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor 95.688 114.97 .10223E-03 -1.5512 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.6513 .57327E-03 -1.5673 8 norm .61356 .42553 .68012E-03 -1.5692 9 Prefactor 10.332 29.439 .31154E-03 -1.5644 10 norm 4.0404 .56544 .50140E-03 -1.5668 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0786 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 11.977 8.0569 .28938E-03 -1.5639 13 Prefactor 1.5670 15.654 .84989E-03 -1.5683 14 norm 3.9104 .82260 .50994E-03 -1.5668 15 Normalizat .76496 .13800 .10890 -1.0138 16 Prefactor .99833 .44704E-01 .32685E-01 -.92785 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 7.35922e-06 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00114188 2 2.98068e-06 3 2.32953 4 0.756206 5 1.27199e-05 6 114.977 7 3.65126 8 0.425528 9 29.4398 10 0.56544 11 0.000116988 12 8.05686 13 9.90566 14 0.822605 15 0.138065 16 0.0447054 64/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32676964/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/32676964/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source Cygnus Cocoon adding source Cygnus Loop adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 adding source gamma Cygni Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/32676964/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits.....................! real 153.84 user 151.31 sys 0.97 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/32676964/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/32676964/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/32676964/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/32676964/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/32676964/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J2157.5+3127' 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 1.006e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/32676964/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/32676964/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/32676964/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/32676964/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/32676964/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0362352 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0409704 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .21077 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .97609E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'norm ' 1.7803 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' 1.2747 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .14463E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' 95.696 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' 3.1250 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .61368 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 10.328 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'norm ' 4.0405 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .63466E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 11.962 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 1.5650 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' 3.9106 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'Normalizat' .76505 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 16 'Prefactor ' .99827 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 28460.04 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 82 CALLS 1080 TOTAL EDM= .84E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= .6% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 24.118 .70090E-07** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .0000 2.4029 .36258E-07** at limit ** 3 norm 1.7808 2.3014 -.66074E-08 -.30407E-03 4 norm 1.2744 .77125 -.18278E-07 -.92036E-02 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3282 -.41057E-07** at limit ** 6 Prefactor 95.688 4.4517 -.11729E-07 .21751 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.5763 .12736E-07 .41636E-03 8 norm .61356 .41777 -.16506E-07 -.10741E-01 9 Prefactor 10.332 4.0040 -.31107E-07 .56423E-01 10 norm 4.0404 .56597 .15687E-07 .42039E-01 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0668 -.13830E-06** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 11.977 7.9249 -.37926E-07 -.73483E-01 13 Prefactor 1.5670 2.4280 .40121E-07 -.52673E-02 14 norm 3.9104 .82294 -.13297E-07 -.15354E-01 15 Normalizat .76496 .14126 .55169E-06 .11969E-03 16 Prefactor .99833 .47644E-01 .22130E-07 .44638E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 1.37113e-08 Prefactor = 0 norm = 1.78077 norm = 1.27438 norm = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 95.6881 Prefactor = 3.136 norm = 0.613559 Prefactor = 10.3318 norm = 4.04044 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 Prefactor = 11.9772 Prefactor = 1.56699 norm = 3.91037 Normalizat = 0.764965 Prefactor = 0.998333 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28460.04 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 241 CALLS 1321 TOTAL EDM= .74E-05 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 23.739 .11587E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .0000 2.3828 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 norm 1.7808 2.3295 .78408E-03 -1.5681 4 norm 1.2744 .75621 .98407E-03 -1.5685 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3297 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor 95.688 114.97 .10223E-03 -1.5512 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.6513 .57327E-03 -1.5673 8 norm .61356 .42553 .68012E-03 -1.5692 9 Prefactor 10.332 29.439 .31154E-03 -1.5644 10 norm 4.0404 .56544 .50140E-03 -1.5668 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0786 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 11.977 8.0569 .28938E-03 -1.5639 13 Prefactor 1.5670 15.654 .84989E-03 -1.5683 14 norm 3.9104 .82260 .50994E-03 -1.5668 15 Normalizat .76496 .13800 .10890 -1.0138 16 Prefactor .99833 .44704E-01 .32685E-01 -.92785 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 7.35922e-06 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00114188 2 2.98068e-06 3 2.32953 4 0.756206 5 1.27199e-05 6 114.977 7 3.65126 8 0.425528 9 29.4398 10 0.56544 11 0.000116988 12 8.05686 13 9.90566 14 0.822605 15 0.138065 16 0.0447054 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28460.04 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 241 CALLS 1321 TOTAL EDM= .74E-05 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 23.739 .11587E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .0000 2.3828 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 norm 1.7808 2.3295 .78408E-03 -1.5681 4 norm 1.2744 .75621 .98407E-03 -1.5685 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3297 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor 95.688 114.97 .10223E-03 -1.5512 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.6513 .57327E-03 -1.5673 8 norm .61356 .42553 .68012E-03 -1.5692 9 Prefactor 10.332 29.439 .31154E-03 -1.5644 10 norm 4.0404 .56544 .50140E-03 -1.5668 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0786 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 11.977 8.0569 .28938E-03 -1.5639 13 Prefactor 1.5670 15.654 .84989E-03 -1.5683 14 norm 3.9104 .82260 .50994E-03 -1.5668 15 Normalizat .76496 .13800 .10890 -1.0138 16 Prefactor .99833 .44704E-01 .32685E-01 -.92785 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 7.35922e-06 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00114188 2 2.98068e-06 3 2.32953 4 0.756206 5 1.27199e-05 6 114.977 7 3.65126 8 0.425528 9 29.4398 10 0.56544 11 0.000116988 12 8.05686 13 9.90566 14 0.822605 15 0.138065 16 0.0447054 139/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32677139/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/32677139/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source Cygnus Cocoon adding source Cygnus Loop adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 adding source gamma Cygni Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/32677139/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits.....................! real 155.98 user 153.25 sys 1.07 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/32677139/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/32677139/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/32677139/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/32677139/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/32677139/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J2157.5+3127' 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 1.006e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/32677139/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/32677139/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/32677139/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/32677139/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/32677139/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0362352 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0409704 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .21077 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .97609E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'norm ' 1.7803 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' 1.2747 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .14463E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' 95.696 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' 3.1250 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .61368 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 10.328 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'norm ' 4.0405 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .63466E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 11.962 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 1.5650 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' 3.9106 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'Normalizat' .76505 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 16 'Prefactor ' .99827 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0361458 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 6.136e-01 4.255e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.983e-01 4.471e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.650e-01 1.381e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.17 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.67e-08 +/- 1.85e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.08e-05 +/- 7.49e-06 TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.33005108808e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 2.56389943375e-05 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/32676929/likelihoodResults_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9862202 delta logL = 0.049925585161 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836075 delta logL = 0.0525382881315 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .58767 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'alpha ' 2.3402 1.0000 .0000 5.0000 3 'Normalizat' .76044 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99911 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 28459.98 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 215 TOTAL EDM= .54E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .58789 7.4375 .70339E-03 .48060E-01 2 alpha 2.3402 3.6326 .41258 .10867E-03 3 Normalizat .76050 .46077E-01 .10919 .14369E-03 4 Prefactor .99905 .15236E-01 .32674E-01 -.26658E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0.587886 alpha = 2.34016 Normalizat = 0.7605 Prefactor = 0.999049 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28459.98 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 33 CALLS 248 TOTAL EDM= .89E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .58789 .42382 .83231E-05 -1.5693 2 alpha 2.3402 .53833 .26726E-01 -.63978E-01 3 Normalizat .76050 .13895 .48414E-03 -1.0155 4 Prefactor .99905 .47065E-01 .14438E-03 -.92761 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.86582e-09 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.423823 2 0.542593 3 0.139011 4 0.0470665 147/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32677147/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/32677147/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source Cygnus Cocoon adding source Cygnus Loop adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 adding source gamma Cygni Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/32677147/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits.....................! real 151.00 user 148.70 sys 0.79 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/32677147/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/32677147/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/32677147/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/32677147/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/32677147/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J2157.5+3127' 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 1.006e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/32677147/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/32677147/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/32677147/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/32677147/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/32677147/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0362352 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0409704 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .21077 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .97609E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'norm ' 1.7803 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' 1.2747 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .14463E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' 95.696 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' 3.1250 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .61368 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 10.328 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'norm ' 4.0405 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .63466E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 11.962 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 1.5650 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' 3.9106 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'Normalizat' .76505 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 16 'Prefactor ' .99827 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 28460.04 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 82 CALLS 1080 TOTAL EDM= .84E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= .6% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 24.118 .70090E-07** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .0000 2.4029 .36258E-07** at limit ** 3 norm 1.7808 2.3014 -.66074E-08 -.30407E-03 4 norm 1.2744 .77125 -.18278E-07 -.92036E-02 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3282 -.41057E-07** at limit ** 6 Prefactor 95.688 4.4517 -.11729E-07 .21751 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.5763 .12736E-07 .41636E-03 8 norm .61356 .41777 -.16506E-07 -.10741E-01 9 Prefactor 10.332 4.0040 -.31107E-07 .56423E-01 10 norm 4.0404 .56597 .15687E-07 .42039E-01 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0668 -.13830E-06** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 11.977 7.9249 -.37926E-07 -.73483E-01 13 Prefactor 1.5670 2.4280 .40121E-07 -.52673E-02 14 norm 3.9104 .82294 -.13297E-07 -.15354E-01 15 Normalizat .76496 .14126 .55169E-06 .11969E-03 16 Prefactor .99833 .47644E-01 .22130E-07 .44638E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 1.37113e-08 Prefactor = 0 norm = 1.78077 norm = 1.27438 norm = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 95.6881 Prefactor = 3.136 norm = 0.613559 Prefactor = 10.3318 norm = 4.04044 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 Prefactor = 11.9772 Prefactor = 1.56699 norm = 3.91037 Normalizat = 0.764965 Prefactor = 0.998333 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836058 delta logL = 0.0525399762701 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 5.879e-01 4.238e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.340e+00 5.426e-01 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.990e-01 4.707e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.605e-01 1.390e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.19 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.34 +/- 0.54 Photon Flux (Free Index): 3.05e-08 +/- 2.21e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.03e-05 +/- 7.18e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/32676929/cmap_HighResolution_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.56e-05', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.67e-08', energy_flux2='1.03e-05', photon_flux_error='1.85e-08', dlogl='5.25e-02', energy_flux='1.08e-05', photon_flux2='3.05e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-21 19:29:21.297411', photon_index_error2='0.54', photon_index2='2.34', ts='3.08', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.33e-08', energy_flux_error2='7.18e-06', EG='0.76', time_epoch_completed='1784687361.3', return_code='0', job_id='32676929', GAL2='1.00', EG2='0.76', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='7.49e-06', photon_flux_error2='2.21e-08', ts2='3.19', photon_index='2.17' WHERE bin_id='937' AND source_name='4FGL J2157.5+3127' AND cadence='weekly'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Jul 21 19:29:22 PDT 2026 .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 28460.04 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 82 CALLS 1080 TOTAL EDM= .84E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= .6% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 24.118 .70090E-07** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .0000 2.4029 .36258E-07** at limit ** 3 norm 1.7808 2.3014 -.66074E-08 -.30407E-03 4 norm 1.2744 .77125 -.18278E-07 -.92036E-02 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3282 -.41057E-07** at limit ** 6 Prefactor 95.688 4.4517 -.11729E-07 .21751 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.5763 .12736E-07 .41636E-03 8 norm .61356 .41777 -.16506E-07 -.10741E-01 9 Prefactor 10.332 4.0040 -.31107E-07 .56423E-01 10 norm 4.0404 .56597 .15687E-07 .42039E-01 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0668 -.13830E-06** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 11.977 7.9249 -.37926E-07 -.73483E-01 13 Prefactor 1.5670 2.4280 .40121E-07 -.52673E-02 14 norm 3.9104 .82294 -.13297E-07 -.15354E-01 15 Normalizat .76496 .14126 .55169E-06 .11969E-03 16 Prefactor .99833 .47644E-01 .22130E-07 .44638E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 1.37113e-08 Prefactor = 0 norm = 1.78077 norm = 1.27438 norm = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 95.6881 Prefactor = 3.136 norm = 0.613559 Prefactor = 10.3318 norm = 4.04044 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 Prefactor = 11.9772 Prefactor = 1.56699 norm = 3.91037 Normalizat = 0.764965 Prefactor = 0.998333 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0361458 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 6.136e-01 4.255e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.983e-01 4.471e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.650e-01 1.381e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.17 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.67e-08 +/- 1.85e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.08e-05 +/- 7.49e-06 TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.33005108808e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 2.56389943375e-05 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/32676868/likelihoodResults_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9862202 delta logL = 0.049925585161 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836075 delta logL = 0.0525382881315 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .58767 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'alpha ' 2.3402 1.0000 .0000 5.0000 3 'Normalizat' .76044 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99911 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 28459.98 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 215 TOTAL EDM= .54E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .58789 7.4375 .70339E-03 .48060E-01 2 alpha 2.3402 3.6326 .41258 .10867E-03 3 Normalizat .76050 .46077E-01 .10919 .14369E-03 4 Prefactor .99905 .15236E-01 .32674E-01 -.26658E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0.587886 alpha = 2.34016 Normalizat = 0.7605 Prefactor = 0.999049 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28459.98 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 33 CALLS 248 TOTAL EDM= .89E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .58789 .42382 .83231E-05 -1.5693 2 alpha 2.3402 .53833 .26726E-01 -.63978E-01 3 Normalizat .76050 .13895 .48414E-03 -1.0155 4 Prefactor .99905 .47065E-01 .14438E-03 -.92761 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.86582e-09 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.423823 2 0.542593 3 0.139011 4 0.0470665 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836058 delta logL = 0.0525399762701 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 5.879e-01 4.238e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.340e+00 5.426e-01 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.990e-01 4.707e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.605e-01 1.390e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.19 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.34 +/- 0.54 Photon Flux (Free Index): 3.05e-08 +/- 2.21e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.03e-05 +/- 7.18e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/32676868/cmap_HighResolution_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.56e-05', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.67e-08', energy_flux2='1.03e-05', photon_flux_error='1.85e-08', dlogl='5.25e-02', energy_flux='1.08e-05', photon_flux2='3.05e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-21 19:29:54.677477', photon_index_error2='0.54', photon_index2='2.34', ts='3.08', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.33e-08', energy_flux_error2='7.18e-06', EG='0.76', time_epoch_completed='1784687394.68', return_code='0', job_id='32676868', GAL2='1.00', EG2='0.76', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='7.49e-06', photon_flux_error2='2.21e-08', ts2='3.19', photon_index='2.17' WHERE bin_id='937' AND source_name='4FGL J2157.5+3127' AND cadence='weekly'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Jul 21 19:29:55 PDT 2026 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28460.04 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 241 CALLS 1321 TOTAL EDM= .74E-05 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 23.739 .11587E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .0000 2.3828 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 norm 1.7808 2.3295 .78408E-03 -1.5681 4 norm 1.2744 .75621 .98407E-03 -1.5685 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3297 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor 95.688 114.97 .10223E-03 -1.5512 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.6513 .57327E-03 -1.5673 8 norm .61356 .42553 .68012E-03 -1.5692 9 Prefactor 10.332 29.439 .31154E-03 -1.5644 10 norm 4.0404 .56544 .50140E-03 -1.5668 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0786 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 11.977 8.0569 .28938E-03 -1.5639 13 Prefactor 1.5670 15.654 .84989E-03 -1.5683 14 norm 3.9104 .82260 .50994E-03 -1.5668 15 Normalizat .76496 .13800 .10890 -1.0138 16 Prefactor .99833 .44704E-01 .32685E-01 -.92785 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 7.35922e-06 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00114188 2 2.98068e-06 3 2.32953 4 0.756206 5 1.27199e-05 6 114.977 7 3.65126 8 0.425528 9 29.4398 10 0.56544 11 0.000116988 12 8.05686 13 9.90566 14 0.822605 15 0.138065 16 0.0447054 number of points = 17284 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937 RA = 329.386, Dec = 31.4552 tmin = 805680001, tmax = 806284801 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='32678013', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2026-07-21 19:21:10.611869', time_epoch_executed='1784686870.61' WHERE source_name='4FGL J2157.5+3127' and cadence='weekly' and bin_id='937' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/32678013 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/32678013/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=805680001.0 && nMetStart<806284801.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=805680001.0 && nMetStart<806284801.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 107 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft1_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=805680001.0 && nMetStart<806284801.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 107 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft1_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits ra=329.386 dec=31.4552 rad=12.0 tmin=805680001.0 tmax=806284801.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 5.14 user 3.99 sys 0.26 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 1.02 user 0.22 sys 0.14 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 2751 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits sctable="SC_DATA" ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28460.04 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 241 CALLS 1321 TOTAL EDM= .74E-05 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 23.739 .11587E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .0000 2.3828 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 norm 1.7808 2.3295 .78408E-03 -1.5681 4 norm 1.2744 .75621 .98407E-03 -1.5685 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3297 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor 95.688 114.97 .10223E-03 -1.5512 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.6513 .57327E-03 -1.5673 8 norm .61356 .42553 .68012E-03 -1.5692 9 Prefactor 10.332 29.439 .31154E-03 -1.5644 10 norm 4.0404 .56544 .50140E-03 -1.5668 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0786 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 11.977 8.0569 .28938E-03 -1.5639 13 Prefactor 1.5670 15.654 .84989E-03 -1.5683 14 norm 3.9104 .82260 .50994E-03 -1.5668 15 Normalizat .76496 .13800 .10890 -1.0138 16 Prefactor .99833 .44704E-01 .32685E-01 -.92785 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 7.35922e-06 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00114188 2 2.98068e-06 3 2.32953 4 0.756206 5 1.27199e-05 6 114.977 7 3.65126 8 0.425528 9 29.4398 10 0.56544 11 0.000116988 12 8.05686 13 9.90566 14 0.822605 15 0.138065 16 0.0447054 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0361458 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 6.136e-01 4.255e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.983e-01 4.471e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.650e-01 1.381e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.17 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.67e-08 +/- 1.85e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.08e-05 +/- 7.49e-06 TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.33005108808e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 2.56389943375e-05 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/32676964/likelihoodResults_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9862202 delta logL = 0.049925585161 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836075 delta logL = 0.0525382881315 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .58767 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'alpha ' 2.3402 1.0000 .0000 5.0000 3 'Normalizat' .76044 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99911 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 28459.98 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 215 TOTAL EDM= .54E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .58789 7.4375 .70339E-03 .48060E-01 2 alpha 2.3402 3.6326 .41258 .10867E-03 3 Normalizat .76050 .46077E-01 .10919 .14369E-03 4 Prefactor .99905 .15236E-01 .32674E-01 -.26658E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0.587886 alpha = 2.34016 Normalizat = 0.7605 Prefactor = 0.999049 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28459.98 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 33 CALLS 248 TOTAL EDM= .89E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .58789 .42382 .83231E-05 -1.5693 2 alpha 2.3402 .53833 .26726E-01 -.63978E-01 3 Normalizat .76050 .13895 .48414E-03 -1.0155 4 Prefactor .99905 .47065E-01 .14438E-03 -.92761 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.86582e-09 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.423823 2 0.542593 3 0.139011 4 0.0470665 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836058 delta logL = 0.0525399762701 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 5.879e-01 4.238e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.340e+00 5.426e-01 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.990e-01 4.707e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.605e-01 1.390e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.19 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.34 +/- 0.54 Photon Flux (Free Index): 3.05e-08 +/- 2.21e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.03e-05 +/- 7.18e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/32676964/cmap_HighResolution_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.56e-05', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.67e-08', energy_flux2='1.03e-05', photon_flux_error='1.85e-08', dlogl='5.25e-02', energy_flux='1.08e-05', photon_flux2='3.05e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-21 19:30:20.243900', photon_index_error2='0.54', photon_index2='2.34', ts='3.08', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.33e-08', energy_flux_error2='7.18e-06', EG='0.76', time_epoch_completed='1784687420.24', return_code='0', job_id='32676964', GAL2='1.00', EG2='0.76', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='7.49e-06', photon_flux_error2='2.21e-08', ts2='3.19', photon_index='2.17' WHERE bin_id='937' AND source_name='4FGL J2157.5+3127' AND cadence='weekly'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Jul 21 19:30:20 PDT 2026 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0361458 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 6.136e-01 4.255e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.983e-01 4.471e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.650e-01 1.381e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.17 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.67e-08 +/- 1.85e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.08e-05 +/- 7.49e-06 TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.33005108808e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 2.56389943375e-05 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/32677139/likelihoodResults_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9862202 delta logL = 0.049925585161 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836075 delta logL = 0.0525382881315 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .58767 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'alpha ' 2.3402 1.0000 .0000 5.0000 3 'Normalizat' .76044 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99911 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 28459.98 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 215 TOTAL EDM= .54E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .58789 7.4375 .70339E-03 .48060E-01 2 alpha 2.3402 3.6326 .41258 .10867E-03 3 Normalizat .76050 .46077E-01 .10919 .14369E-03 4 Prefactor .99905 .15236E-01 .32674E-01 -.26658E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0.587886 alpha = 2.34016 Normalizat = 0.7605 Prefactor = 0.999049 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28459.98 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 33 CALLS 248 TOTAL EDM= .89E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .58789 .42382 .83231E-05 -1.5693 2 alpha 2.3402 .53833 .26726E-01 -.63978E-01 3 Normalizat .76050 .13895 .48414E-03 -1.0155 4 Prefactor .99905 .47065E-01 .14438E-03 -.92761 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.86582e-09 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.423823 2 0.542593 3 0.139011 4 0.0470665 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836058 delta logL = 0.0525399762701 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 5.879e-01 4.238e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.340e+00 5.426e-01 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.990e-01 4.707e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.605e-01 1.390e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.19 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.34 +/- 0.54 Photon Flux (Free Index): 3.05e-08 +/- 2.21e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.03e-05 +/- 7.18e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/32677139/cmap_HighResolution_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.56e-05', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.67e-08', energy_flux2='1.03e-05', photon_flux_error='1.85e-08', dlogl='5.25e-02', energy_flux='1.08e-05', photon_flux2='3.05e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-21 19:31:31.109693', photon_index_error2='0.54', photon_index2='2.34', ts='3.08', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.33e-08', energy_flux_error2='7.18e-06', EG='0.76', time_epoch_completed='1784687491.11', return_code='0', job_id='32677139', GAL2='1.00', EG2='0.76', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='7.49e-06', photon_flux_error2='2.21e-08', ts2='3.19', photon_index='2.17' WHERE bin_id='937' AND source_name='4FGL J2157.5+3127' AND cadence='weekly'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Jul 21 19:31:31 PDT 2026 outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits .....................! real 18.20 user 17.01 sys 0.28 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits .....................! real 66.40 user 61.38 sys 3.93 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Extended source Cygnus Loop in ROI, make sure /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/ExtendedSources/Extended_8years/Templates/CygnusLoop.fits is the correct path to the extended template. Extended source gamma Cygni in ROI with RadialDisk spatial model. Extended source Cygnus Cocoon in ROI with RadialGaussian spatial model. Added 186 point sources and 3 extended sources If using unbinned likelihood you will need to rerun gtdiffrsp for the extended sources or rerun the makeModel function with optional argument psForce=True Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J2157.5+3127 @ 329.386 31.4552 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/cmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=329.386 yref=31.4552 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.95 user 0.24 sys 0.13 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/cmap_HighResolution_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=329.386 yref=31.4552 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 1.11 user 0.24 sys 0.14 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678206/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32677206/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/32677206/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source Cygnus Cocoon adding source Cygnus Loop adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 adding source gamma Cygni Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/32677206/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits.....................! real 169.34 user 166.56 sys 1.10 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/32677206/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/32677206/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/32677206/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/32677206/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/32677206/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J2157.5+3127' 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 1.006e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/32677206/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/32677206/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/32677206/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/32677206/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/32677206/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0362352 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0409704 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .21077 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .97609E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'norm ' 1.7803 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' 1.2747 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .14463E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' 95.696 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' 3.1250 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .61368 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 10.328 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'norm ' 4.0405 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .63466E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 11.962 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 1.5650 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' 3.9106 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'Normalizat' .76505 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 16 'Prefactor ' .99827 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0361458 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 6.136e-01 4.255e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.983e-01 4.471e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.650e-01 1.381e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.17 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.67e-08 +/- 1.85e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.08e-05 +/- 7.49e-06 TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.33005108808e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 2.56389943375e-05 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/32677147/likelihoodResults_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9862202 delta logL = 0.049925585161 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836075 delta logL = 0.0525382881315 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .58767 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'alpha ' 2.3402 1.0000 .0000 5.0000 3 'Normalizat' .76044 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99911 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 28459.98 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 215 TOTAL EDM= .54E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .58789 7.4375 .70339E-03 .48060E-01 2 alpha 2.3402 3.6326 .41258 .10867E-03 3 Normalizat .76050 .46077E-01 .10919 .14369E-03 4 Prefactor .99905 .15236E-01 .32674E-01 -.26658E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0.587886 alpha = 2.34016 Normalizat = 0.7605 Prefactor = 0.999049 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28459.98 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 33 CALLS 248 TOTAL EDM= .89E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .58789 .42382 .83231E-05 -1.5693 2 alpha 2.3402 .53833 .26726E-01 -.63978E-01 3 Normalizat .76050 .13895 .48414E-03 -1.0155 4 Prefactor .99905 .47065E-01 .14438E-03 -.92761 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.86582e-09 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.423823 2 0.542593 3 0.139011 4 0.0470665 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836058 delta logL = 0.0525399762701 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 5.879e-01 4.238e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.340e+00 5.426e-01 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.990e-01 4.707e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.605e-01 1.390e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.19 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.34 +/- 0.54 Photon Flux (Free Index): 3.05e-08 +/- 2.21e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.03e-05 +/- 7.18e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/32677147/cmap_HighResolution_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.56e-05', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.67e-08', energy_flux2='1.03e-05', photon_flux_error='1.85e-08', dlogl='5.25e-02', energy_flux='1.08e-05', photon_flux2='3.05e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-21 19:31:47.634504', photon_index_error2='0.54', photon_index2='2.34', ts='3.08', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.33e-08', energy_flux_error2='7.18e-06', EG='0.76', time_epoch_completed='1784687507.63', return_code='0', job_id='32677147', GAL2='1.00', EG2='0.76', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='7.49e-06', photon_flux_error2='2.21e-08', ts2='3.19', photon_index='2.17' WHERE bin_id='937' AND source_name='4FGL J2157.5+3127' AND cadence='weekly'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Jul 21 19:31:48 PDT 2026 .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 28460.04 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 82 CALLS 1080 TOTAL EDM= .84E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= .6% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 24.118 .70090E-07** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .0000 2.4029 .36258E-07** at limit ** 3 norm 1.7808 2.3014 -.66074E-08 -.30407E-03 4 norm 1.2744 .77125 -.18278E-07 -.92036E-02 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3282 -.41057E-07** at limit ** 6 Prefactor 95.688 4.4517 -.11729E-07 .21751 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.5763 .12736E-07 .41636E-03 8 norm .61356 .41777 -.16506E-07 -.10741E-01 9 Prefactor 10.332 4.0040 -.31107E-07 .56423E-01 10 norm 4.0404 .56597 .15687E-07 .42039E-01 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0668 -.13830E-06** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 11.977 7.9249 -.37926E-07 -.73483E-01 13 Prefactor 1.5670 2.4280 .40121E-07 -.52673E-02 14 norm 3.9104 .82294 -.13297E-07 -.15354E-01 15 Normalizat .76496 .14126 .55169E-06 .11969E-03 16 Prefactor .99833 .47644E-01 .22130E-07 .44638E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 1.37113e-08 Prefactor = 0 norm = 1.78077 norm = 1.27438 norm = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 95.6881 Prefactor = 3.136 norm = 0.613559 Prefactor = 10.3318 norm = 4.04044 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 Prefactor = 11.9772 Prefactor = 1.56699 norm = 3.91037 Normalizat = 0.764965 Prefactor = 0.998333 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28460.04 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 241 CALLS 1321 TOTAL EDM= .74E-05 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 23.739 .11587E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .0000 2.3828 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 norm 1.7808 2.3295 .78408E-03 -1.5681 4 norm 1.2744 .75621 .98407E-03 -1.5685 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3297 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor 95.688 114.97 .10223E-03 -1.5512 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.6513 .57327E-03 -1.5673 8 norm .61356 .42553 .68012E-03 -1.5692 9 Prefactor 10.332 29.439 .31154E-03 -1.5644 10 norm 4.0404 .56544 .50140E-03 -1.5668 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0786 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 11.977 8.0569 .28938E-03 -1.5639 13 Prefactor 1.5670 15.654 .84989E-03 -1.5683 14 norm 3.9104 .82260 .50994E-03 -1.5668 15 Normalizat .76496 .13800 .10890 -1.0138 16 Prefactor .99833 .44704E-01 .32685E-01 -.92785 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 7.35922e-06 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00114188 2 2.98068e-06 3 2.32953 4 0.756206 5 1.27199e-05 6 114.977 7 3.65126 8 0.425528 9 29.4398 10 0.56544 11 0.000116988 12 8.05686 13 9.90566 14 0.822605 15 0.138065 16 0.0447054 292/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32677292/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/32677292/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source Cygnus Cocoon adding source Cygnus Loop adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 adding source gamma Cygni Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/32677292/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits.....................! real 169.65 user 166.22 sys 1.59 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/32677292/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/32677292/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/32677292/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/32677292/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/32677292/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J2157.5+3127' 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 1.006e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/32677292/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/32677292/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/32677292/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/32677292/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/32677292/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0362352 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0409704 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .21077 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .97609E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'norm ' 1.7803 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' 1.2747 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .14463E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' 95.696 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' 3.1250 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .61368 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 10.328 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'norm ' 4.0405 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .63466E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 11.962 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 1.5650 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' 3.9106 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'Normalizat' .76505 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 16 'Prefactor ' .99827 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 28460.04 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 82 CALLS 1080 TOTAL EDM= .84E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= .6% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 24.118 .70090E-07** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .0000 2.4029 .36258E-07** at limit ** 3 norm 1.7808 2.3014 -.66074E-08 -.30407E-03 4 norm 1.2744 .77125 -.18278E-07 -.92036E-02 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3282 -.41057E-07** at limit ** 6 Prefactor 95.688 4.4517 -.11729E-07 .21751 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.5763 .12736E-07 .41636E-03 8 norm .61356 .41777 -.16506E-07 -.10741E-01 9 Prefactor 10.332 4.0040 -.31107E-07 .56423E-01 10 norm 4.0404 .56597 .15687E-07 .42039E-01 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0668 -.13830E-06** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 11.977 7.9249 -.37926E-07 -.73483E-01 13 Prefactor 1.5670 2.4280 .40121E-07 -.52673E-02 14 norm 3.9104 .82294 -.13297E-07 -.15354E-01 15 Normalizat .76496 .14126 .55169E-06 .11969E-03 16 Prefactor .99833 .47644E-01 .22130E-07 .44638E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 1.37113e-08 Prefactor = 0 norm = 1.78077 norm = 1.27438 norm = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 95.6881 Prefactor = 3.136 norm = 0.613559 Prefactor = 10.3318 norm = 4.04044 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 Prefactor = 11.9772 Prefactor = 1.56699 norm = 3.91037 Normalizat = 0.764965 Prefactor = 0.998333 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28460.04 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 241 CALLS 1321 TOTAL EDM= .74E-05 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 23.739 .11587E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .0000 2.3828 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 norm 1.7808 2.3295 .78408E-03 -1.5681 4 norm 1.2744 .75621 .98407E-03 -1.5685 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3297 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor 95.688 114.97 .10223E-03 -1.5512 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.6513 .57327E-03 -1.5673 8 norm .61356 .42553 .68012E-03 -1.5692 9 Prefactor 10.332 29.439 .31154E-03 -1.5644 10 norm 4.0404 .56544 .50140E-03 -1.5668 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0786 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 11.977 8.0569 .28938E-03 -1.5639 13 Prefactor 1.5670 15.654 .84989E-03 -1.5683 14 norm 3.9104 .82260 .50994E-03 -1.5668 15 Normalizat .76496 .13800 .10890 -1.0138 16 Prefactor .99833 .44704E-01 .32685E-01 -.92785 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 7.35922e-06 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00114188 2 2.98068e-06 3 2.32953 4 0.756206 5 1.27199e-05 6 114.977 7 3.65126 8 0.425528 9 29.4398 10 0.56544 11 0.000116988 12 8.05686 13 9.90566 14 0.822605 15 0.138065 16 0.0447054 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0361458 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 6.136e-01 4.255e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.983e-01 4.471e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.650e-01 1.381e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.17 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.67e-08 +/- 1.85e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.08e-05 +/- 7.49e-06 TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.33005108808e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 2.56389943375e-05 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/32677206/likelihoodResults_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9862202 delta logL = 0.049925585161 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836075 delta logL = 0.0525382881315 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .58767 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'alpha ' 2.3402 1.0000 .0000 5.0000 3 'Normalizat' .76044 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99911 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 28459.98 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 215 TOTAL EDM= .54E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .58789 7.4375 .70339E-03 .48060E-01 2 alpha 2.3402 3.6326 .41258 .10867E-03 3 Normalizat .76050 .46077E-01 .10919 .14369E-03 4 Prefactor .99905 .15236E-01 .32674E-01 -.26658E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0.587886 alpha = 2.34016 Normalizat = 0.7605 Prefactor = 0.999049 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28459.98 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 33 CALLS 248 TOTAL EDM= .89E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .58789 .42382 .83231E-05 -1.5693 2 alpha 2.3402 .53833 .26726E-01 -.63978E-01 3 Normalizat .76050 .13895 .48414E-03 -1.0155 4 Prefactor .99905 .47065E-01 .14438E-03 -.92761 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.86582e-09 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.423823 2 0.542593 3 0.139011 4 0.0470665 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836058 delta logL = 0.0525399762701 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 5.879e-01 4.238e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.340e+00 5.426e-01 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.990e-01 4.707e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.605e-01 1.390e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.19 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.34 +/- 0.54 Photon Flux (Free Index): 3.05e-08 +/- 2.21e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.03e-05 +/- 7.18e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/32677206/cmap_HighResolution_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.56e-05', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.67e-08', energy_flux2='1.03e-05', photon_flux_error='1.85e-08', dlogl='5.25e-02', energy_flux='1.08e-05', photon_flux2='3.05e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-21 19:34:15.823265', photon_index_error2='0.54', photon_index2='2.34', ts='3.08', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.33e-08', energy_flux_error2='7.18e-06', EG='0.76', time_epoch_completed='1784687655.82', return_code='0', job_id='32677206', GAL2='1.00', EG2='0.76', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='7.49e-06', photon_flux_error2='2.21e-08', ts2='3.19', photon_index='2.17' WHERE bin_id='937' AND source_name='4FGL J2157.5+3127' AND cadence='weekly'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Jul 21 19:34:16 PDT 2026 number of points = 17284 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937 RA = 329.386, Dec = 31.4552 tmin = 805680001, tmax = 806284801 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='32678662', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2026-07-21 19:25:31.764719', time_epoch_executed='1784687131.76' WHERE source_name='4FGL J2157.5+3127' and cadence='weekly' and bin_id='937' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/32678662 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/32678662/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=805680001.0 && nMetStart<806284801.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=805680001.0 && nMetStart<806284801.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 107 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft1_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=805680001.0 && nMetStart<806284801.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 107 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft1_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits ra=329.386 dec=31.4552 rad=12.0 tmin=805680001.0 tmax=806284801.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 5.12 user 4.11 sys 0.23 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 1.04 user 0.21 sys 0.13 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 2751 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits sctable="SC_DATA"Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0361458 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 6.136e-01 4.255e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.983e-01 4.471e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.650e-01 1.381e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.17 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.67e-08 +/- 1.85e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.08e-05 +/- 7.49e-06 TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.33005108808e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 2.56389943375e-05 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/32677292/likelihoodResults_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9862202 delta logL = 0.049925585161 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836075 delta logL = 0.0525382881315 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .58767 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'alpha ' 2.3402 1.0000 .0000 5.0000 3 'Normalizat' .76044 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99911 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 28459.98 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 215 TOTAL EDM= .54E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .58789 7.4375 .70339E-03 .48060E-01 2 alpha 2.3402 3.6326 .41258 .10867E-03 3 Normalizat .76050 .46077E-01 .10919 .14369E-03 4 Prefactor .99905 .15236E-01 .32674E-01 -.26658E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0.587886 alpha = 2.34016 Normalizat = 0.7605 Prefactor = 0.999049 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28459.98 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 33 CALLS 248 TOTAL EDM= .89E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .58789 .42382 .83231E-05 -1.5693 2 alpha 2.3402 .53833 .26726E-01 -.63978E-01 3 Normalizat .76050 .13895 .48414E-03 -1.0155 4 Prefactor .99905 .47065E-01 .14438E-03 -.92761 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.86582e-09 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.423823 2 0.542593 3 0.139011 4 0.0470665 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836058 delta logL = 0.0525399762701 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 5.879e-01 4.238e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.340e+00 5.426e-01 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.990e-01 4.707e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.605e-01 1.390e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.19 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.34 +/- 0.54 Photon Flux (Free Index): 3.05e-08 +/- 2.21e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.03e-05 +/- 7.18e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/32677292/cmap_HighResolution_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.56e-05', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.67e-08', energy_flux2='1.03e-05', photon_flux_error='1.85e-08', dlogl='5.25e-02', energy_flux='1.08e-05', photon_flux2='3.05e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-21 19:35:23.153859', photon_index_error2='0.54', photon_index2='2.34', ts='3.08', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.33e-08', energy_flux_error2='7.18e-06', EG='0.76', time_epoch_completed='1784687723.15', return_code='0', job_id='32677292', GAL2='1.00', EG2='0.76', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='7.49e-06', photon_flux_error2='2.21e-08', ts2='3.19', photon_index='2.17' WHERE bin_id='937' AND source_name='4FGL J2157.5+3127' AND cadence='weekly'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Jul 21 19:35:23 PDT 2026 number of points = 17284 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937 RA = 329.386, Dec = 31.4552 tmin = 805680001, tmax = 806284801 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='32678729', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2026-07-21 19:26:32.962494', time_epoch_executed='1784687192.96' WHERE source_name='4FGL J2157.5+3127' and cadence='weekly' and bin_id='937' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/32678729 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/32678729/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=805680001.0 && nMetStart<806284801.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=805680001.0 && nMetStart<806284801.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 107 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft1_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=805680001.0 && nMetStart<806284801.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 107 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft1_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits ra=329.386 dec=31.4552 rad=12.0 tmin=805680001.0 tmax=806284801.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 5.26 user 4.30 sys 0.20 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 0.99 user 0.22 sys 0.13 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 2751 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits sctable="SC_DATA" outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits .....................! real 17.69 user 16.77 sys 0.23 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits .....................! real 66.25 user 61.48 sys 3.82 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Extended source Cygnus Loop in ROI, make sure /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/ExtendedSources/Extended_8years/Templates/CygnusLoop.fits is the correct path to the extended template. Extended source gamma Cygni in ROI with RadialDisk spatial model. Extended source Cygnus Cocoon in ROI with RadialGaussian spatial model. Added 186 point sources and 3 extended sources If using unbinned likelihood you will need to rerun gtdiffrsp for the extended sources or rerun the makeModel function with optional argument psForce=True Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J2157.5+3127 @ 329.386 31.4552 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/cmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=329.386 yref=31.4552 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.96 user 0.23 sys 0.13 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/cmap_HighResolution_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=329.386 yref=31.4552 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.98 user 0.22 sys 0.15 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678 outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits .....................! real 18.65 user 17.55 sys 0.25 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits .....................! real 69.11 user 64.05 sys 4.13 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Extended source Cygnus Loop in ROI, make sure /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/ExtendedSources/Extended_8years/Templates/CygnusLoop.fits is the correct path to the extended template. Extended source gamma Cygni in ROI with RadialDisk spatial model. Extended source Cygnus Cocoon in ROI with RadialGaussian spatial model. Added 186 point sources and 3 extended sources If using unbinned likelihood you will need to rerun gtdiffrsp for the extended sources or rerun the makeModel function with optional argument psForce=True Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J2157.5+3127 @ 329.386 31.4552 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/cmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=329.386 yref=31.4552 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 1.10 user 0.23 sys 0.13 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/cmap_HighResolution_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=329.386 yref=31.4552 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.99 user 0.23 sys 0.13 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source Cygnus Cocoon adding source Cygnus Loop adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 adding source gamma Cygni Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits.....................! real 157.79 user 154.66 sys 1.56 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/32678013/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J2157.5+3127' 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 1.006e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/32678013/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/32678013/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/32678013/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0362352 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0409704 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .21077 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .97609E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'norm ' 1.7803 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' 1.2747 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .14463E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' 95.696 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' 3.1250 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .61368 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 10.328 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'norm ' 4.0405 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .63466E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 11.962 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 1.5650 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' 3.9106 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'Normalizat' .76505 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 16 'Prefactor ' .99827 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 28460.04 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 82 CALLS 1080 TOTAL EDM= .84E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= .6% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 24.118 .70090E-07** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .0000 2.4029 .36258E-07** at limit ** 3 norm 1.7808 2.3014 -.66074E-08 -.30407E-03 4 norm 1.2744 .77125 -.18278E-07 -.92036E-02 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3282 -.41057E-07** at limit ** 6 Prefactor 95.688 4.4517 -.11729E-07 .21751 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.5763 .12736E-07 .41636E-03 8 norm .61356 .41777 -.16506E-07 -.10741E-01 9 Prefactor 10.332 4.0040 -.31107E-07 .56423E-01 10 norm 4.0404 .56597 .15687E-07 .42039E-01 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0668 -.13830E-06** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 11.977 7.9249 -.37926E-07 -.73483E-01 13 Prefactor 1.5670 2.4280 .40121E-07 -.52673E-02 14 norm 3.9104 .82294 -.13297E-07 -.15354E-01 15 Normalizat .76496 .14126 .55169E-06 .11969E-03 16 Prefactor .99833 .47644E-01 .22130E-07 .44638E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 1.37113e-08 Prefactor = 0 norm = 1.78077 norm = 1.27438 norm = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 95.6881 Prefactor = 3.136 norm = 0.613559 Prefactor = 10.3318 norm = 4.04044 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 Prefactor = 11.9772 Prefactor = 1.56699 norm = 3.91037 Normalizat = 0.764965 Prefactor = 0.998333 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28460.04 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 241 CALLS 1321 TOTAL EDM= .74E-05 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 23.739 .11587E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .0000 2.3828 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 norm 1.7808 2.3295 .78408E-03 -1.5681 4 norm 1.2744 .75621 .98407E-03 -1.5685 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3297 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor 95.688 114.97 .10223E-03 -1.5512 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.6513 .57327E-03 -1.5673 8 norm .61356 .42553 .68012E-03 -1.5692 9 Prefactor 10.332 29.439 .31154E-03 -1.5644 10 norm 4.0404 .56544 .50140E-03 -1.5668 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0786 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 11.977 8.0569 .28938E-03 -1.5639 13 Prefactor 1.5670 15.654 .84989E-03 -1.5683 14 norm 3.9104 .82260 .50994E-03 -1.5668 15 Normalizat .76496 .13800 .10890 -1.0138 16 Prefactor .99833 .44704E-01 .32685E-01 -.92785 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 7.35922e-06 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00114188 2 2.98068e-06 3 2.32953 4 0.756206 5 1.27199e-05 6 114.977 7 3.65126 8 0.425528 9 29.4398 10 0.56544 11 0.000116988 12 8.05686 13 9.90566 14 0.822605 15 0.138065 16 0.0447054 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0361458 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 6.136e-01 4.255e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.983e-01 4.471e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.650e-01 1.381e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.17 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.67e-08 +/- 1.85e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.08e-05 +/- 7.49e-06 TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.33005108808e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 2.56389943375e-05 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/32678013/likelihoodResults_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9862202 delta logL = 0.049925585161 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836075 delta logL = 0.0525382881315 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .58767 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'alpha ' 2.3402 1.0000 .0000 5.0000 3 'Normalizat' .76044 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99911 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 28459.98 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 215 TOTAL EDM= .54E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .58789 7.4375 .70339E-03 .48060E-01 2 alpha 2.3402 3.6326 .41258 .10867E-03 3 Normalizat .76050 .46077E-01 .10919 .14369E-03 4 Prefactor .99905 .15236E-01 .32674E-01 -.26658E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0.587886 alpha = 2.34016 Normalizat = 0.7605 Prefactor = 0.999049 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28459.98 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 33 CALLS 248 TOTAL EDM= .89E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .58789 .42382 .83231E-05 -1.5693 2 alpha 2.3402 .53833 .26726E-01 -.63978E-01 3 Normalizat .76050 .13895 .48414E-03 -1.0155 4 Prefactor .99905 .47065E-01 .14438E-03 -.92761 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.86582e-09 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.423823 2 0.542593 3 0.139011 4 0.0470665 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836058 delta logL = 0.0525399762701 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 5.879e-01 4.238e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.340e+00 5.426e-01 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.990e-01 4.707e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.605e-01 1.390e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.19 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.34 +/- 0.54 Photon Flux (Free Index): 3.05e-08 +/- 2.21e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.03e-05 +/- 7.18e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/32678013/cmap_HighResolution_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.56e-05', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.67e-08', energy_flux2='1.03e-05', photon_flux_error='1.85e-08', dlogl='5.25e-02', energy_flux='1.08e-05', photon_flux2='3.05e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-21 19:39:53.816384', photon_index_error2='0.54', photon_index2='2.34', ts='3.08', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.33e-08', energy_flux_error2='7.18e-06', EG='0.76', time_epoch_completed='1784687993.82', return_code='0', job_id='32678013', GAL2='1.00', EG2='0.76', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='7.49e-06', photon_flux_error2='2.21e-08', ts2='3.19', photon_index='2.17' WHERE bin_id='937' AND source_name='4FGL J2157.5+3127' AND cadence='weekly'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Jul 21 19:39:54 PDT 2026 662/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source Cygnus Cocoon adding source Cygnus Loop adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 adding source gamma Cygni Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits.....................! real 155.18 user 152.69 sys 1.04 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/32678662/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J2157.5+3127' 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 1.006e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/32678662/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/32678662/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/32678662/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0362352 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0409704 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .21077 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .97609E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'norm ' 1.7803 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' 1.2747 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .14463E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' 95.696 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' 3.1250 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .61368 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 10.328 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'norm ' 4.0405 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .63466E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 11.962 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 1.5650 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' 3.9106 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'Normalizat' .76505 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 16 'Prefactor ' .99827 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 28460.04 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 82 CALLS 1080 TOTAL EDM= .84E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= .6% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 24.118 .70090E-07** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .0000 2.4029 .36258E-07** at limit ** 3 norm 1.7808 2.3014 -.66074E-08 -.30407E-03 4 norm 1.2744 .77125 -.18278E-07 -.92036E-02 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3282 -.41057E-07** at limit ** 6 Prefactor 95.688 4.4517 -.11729E-07 .21751 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.5763 .12736E-07 .41636E-03 8 norm .61356 .41777 -.16506E-07 -.10741E-01 9 Prefactor 10.332 4.0040 -.31107E-07 .56423E-01 10 norm 4.0404 .56597 .15687E-07 .42039E-01 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0668 -.13830E-06** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 11.977 7.9249 -.37926E-07 -.73483E-01 13 Prefactor 1.5670 2.4280 .40121E-07 -.52673E-02 14 norm 3.9104 .82294 -.13297E-07 -.15354E-01 15 Normalizat .76496 .14126 .55169E-06 .11969E-03 16 Prefactor .99833 .47644E-01 .22130E-07 .44638E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 1.37113e-08 Prefactor = 0 norm = 1.78077 norm = 1.27438 norm = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 95.6881 Prefactor = 3.136 norm = 0.613559 Prefactor = 10.3318 norm = 4.04044 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 Prefactor = 11.9772 Prefactor = 1.56699 norm = 3.91037 Normalizat = 0.764965 Prefactor = 0.998333 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28460.04 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 241 CALLS 1321 TOTAL EDM= .74E-05 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 23.739 .11587E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .0000 2.3828 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 norm 1.7808 2.3295 .78408E-03 -1.5681 4 norm 1.2744 .75621 .98407E-03 -1.5685 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3297 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor 95.688 114.97 .10223E-03 -1.5512 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.6513 .57327E-03 -1.5673 8 norm .61356 .42553 .68012E-03 -1.5692 9 Prefactor 10.332 29.439 .31154E-03 -1.5644 10 norm 4.0404 .56544 .50140E-03 -1.5668 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0786 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 11.977 8.0569 .28938E-03 -1.5639 13 Prefactor 1.5670 15.654 .84989E-03 -1.5683 14 norm 3.9104 .82260 .50994E-03 -1.5668 15 Normalizat .76496 .13800 .10890 -1.0138 16 Prefactor .99833 .44704E-01 .32685E-01 -.92785 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 7.35922e-06 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00114188 2 2.98068e-06 3 2.32953 4 0.756206 5 1.27199e-05 6 114.977 7 3.65126 8 0.425528 9 29.4398 10 0.56544 11 0.000116988 12 8.05686 13 9.90566 14 0.822605 15 0.138065 16 0.0447054 729/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source Cygnus Cocoon adding source Cygnus Loop adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 adding source gamma Cygni Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits.....................! real 165.37 user 163.21 sys 0.72 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/32678729/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J2157.5+3127' 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 1.006e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ft2_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/32678729/expmap_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/32678729/ltcube_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/32678729/Model_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0362352 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0409704 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .21077 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .97609E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'norm ' 1.7803 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' 1.2747 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .14463E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' 95.696 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' 3.1250 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .61368 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 10.328 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'norm ' 4.0405 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .63466E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 11.962 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 1.5650 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' 3.9106 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'Normalizat' .76505 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 16 'Prefactor ' .99827 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 28460.04 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 82 CALLS 1080 TOTAL EDM= .84E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= .6% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 24.118 .70090E-07** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .0000 2.4029 .36258E-07** at limit ** 3 norm 1.7808 2.3014 -.66074E-08 -.30407E-03 4 norm 1.2744 .77125 -.18278E-07 -.92036E-02 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3282 -.41057E-07** at limit ** 6 Prefactor 95.688 4.4517 -.11729E-07 .21751 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.5763 .12736E-07 .41636E-03 8 norm .61356 .41777 -.16506E-07 -.10741E-01 9 Prefactor 10.332 4.0040 -.31107E-07 .56423E-01 10 norm 4.0404 .56597 .15687E-07 .42039E-01 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0668 -.13830E-06** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 11.977 7.9249 -.37926E-07 -.73483E-01 13 Prefactor 1.5670 2.4280 .40121E-07 -.52673E-02 14 norm 3.9104 .82294 -.13297E-07 -.15354E-01 15 Normalizat .76496 .14126 .55169E-06 .11969E-03 16 Prefactor .99833 .47644E-01 .22130E-07 .44638E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 1.37113e-08 Prefactor = 0 norm = 1.78077 norm = 1.27438 norm = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 95.6881 Prefactor = 3.136 norm = 0.613559 Prefactor = 10.3318 norm = 4.04044 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 Prefactor = 11.9772 Prefactor = 1.56699 norm = 3.91037 Normalizat = 0.764965 Prefactor = 0.998333 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0361458 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 6.136e-01 4.255e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.983e-01 4.471e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.650e-01 1.381e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.17 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.67e-08 +/- 1.85e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.08e-05 +/- 7.49e-06 TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.33005108808e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 2.56389943375e-05 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/32678662/likelihoodResults_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9862202 delta logL = 0.049925585161 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836075 delta logL = 0.0525382881315 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .58767 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'alpha ' 2.3402 1.0000 .0000 5.0000 3 'Normalizat' .76044 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99911 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 28459.98 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 215 TOTAL EDM= .54E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .58789 7.4375 .70339E-03 .48060E-01 2 alpha 2.3402 3.6326 .41258 .10867E-03 3 Normalizat .76050 .46077E-01 .10919 .14369E-03 4 Prefactor .99905 .15236E-01 .32674E-01 -.26658E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0.587886 alpha = 2.34016 Normalizat = 0.7605 Prefactor = 0.999049 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28460.04 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 241 CALLS 1321 TOTAL EDM= .74E-05 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .13711E-07 23.739 .11587E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .0000 2.3828 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 norm 1.7808 2.3295 .78408E-03 -1.5681 4 norm 1.2744 .75621 .98407E-03 -1.5685 5 norm .55511E-10 1.3297 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor 95.688 114.97 .10223E-03 -1.5512 7 Prefactor 3.1360 3.6513 .57327E-03 -1.5673 8 norm .61356 .42553 .68012E-03 -1.5692 9 Prefactor 10.332 29.439 .31154E-03 -1.5644 10 norm 4.0404 .56544 .50140E-03 -1.5668 11 Prefactor .44409E-09 8.0786 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 11.977 8.0569 .28938E-03 -1.5639 13 Prefactor 1.5670 15.654 .84989E-03 -1.5683 14 norm 3.9104 .82260 .50994E-03 -1.5668 15 Normalizat .76496 .13800 .10890 -1.0138 16 Prefactor .99833 .44704E-01 .32685E-01 -.92785 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 7.35922e-06 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00114188 2 2.98068e-06 3 2.32953 4 0.756206 5 1.27199e-05 6 114.977 7 3.65126 8 0.425528 9 29.4398 10 0.56544 11 0.000116988 12 8.05686 13 9.90566 14 0.822605 15 0.138065 16 0.0447054 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28459.98 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 33 CALLS 248 TOTAL EDM= .89E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .58789 .42382 .83231E-05 -1.5693 2 alpha 2.3402 .53833 .26726E-01 -.63978E-01 3 Normalizat .76050 .13895 .48414E-03 -1.0155 4 Prefactor .99905 .47065E-01 .14438E-03 -.92761 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.86582e-09 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.423823 2 0.542593 3 0.139011 4 0.0470665 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836058 delta logL = 0.0525399762701 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 5.879e-01 4.238e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.340e+00 5.426e-01 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.990e-01 4.707e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.605e-01 1.390e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.19 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.34 +/- 0.54 Photon Flux (Free Index): 3.05e-08 +/- 2.21e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.03e-05 +/- 7.18e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/32678662/cmap_HighResolution_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.56e-05', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.67e-08', energy_flux2='1.03e-05', photon_flux_error='1.85e-08', dlogl='5.25e-02', energy_flux='1.08e-05', photon_flux2='3.05e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-21 19:44:04.358718', photon_index_error2='0.54', photon_index2='2.34', ts='3.08', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.33e-08', energy_flux_error2='7.18e-06', EG='0.76', time_epoch_completed='1784688244.36', return_code='0', job_id='32678662', GAL2='1.00', EG2='0.76', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='7.49e-06', photon_flux_error2='2.21e-08', ts2='3.19', photon_index='2.17' WHERE bin_id='937' AND source_name='4FGL J2157.5+3127' AND cadence='weekly'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Jul 21 19:44:05 PDT 2026 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 28460.0361458 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 6.136e-01 4.255e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.171e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.983e-01 4.471e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.650e-01 1.381e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.17 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.67e-08 +/- 1.85e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.08e-05 +/- 7.49e-06 TS (Fixed Index): 3.08 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.33005108808e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 2.56389943375e-05 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/32678729/likelihoodResults_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9862202 delta logL = 0.049925585161 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836075 delta logL = 0.0525382881315 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .58767 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'alpha ' 2.3402 1.0000 .0000 5.0000 3 'Normalizat' .76044 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99911 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6630E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 28459.98 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 215 TOTAL EDM= .54E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .58789 7.4375 .70339E-03 .48060E-01 2 alpha 2.3402 3.6326 .41258 .10867E-03 3 Normalizat .76050 .46077E-01 .10919 .14369E-03 4 Prefactor .99905 .15236E-01 .32674E-01 -.26658E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0.587886 alpha = 2.34016 Normalizat = 0.7605 Prefactor = 0.999049 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 28459.98 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 33 CALLS 248 TOTAL EDM= .89E-08 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .58789 .42382 .83231E-05 -1.5693 2 alpha 2.3402 .53833 .26726E-01 -.63978E-01 3 Normalizat .76050 .13895 .48414E-03 -1.0155 4 Prefactor .99905 .47065E-01 .14438E-03 -.92761 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.86582e-09 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.423823 2 0.542593 3 0.139011 4 0.0470665 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 28459.9836058 delta logL = 0.0525399762701 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2157.5+3127 Spectrum: LogParabola 368 norm: 5.879e-01 4.238e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-11) 369 alpha: 2.340e+00 5.426e-01 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) 370 beta: 1.366e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 371 Eb: 6.818e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 656 Prefactor: 9.990e-01 4.707e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 657 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 658 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 655 Normalization: 7.605e-01 1.390e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.19 Ra Dec: 329.386 31.455 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.34 +/- 0.54 Photon Flux (Free Index): 3.05e-08 +/- 2.21e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.03e-05 +/- 7.18e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/32678729/cmap_HighResolution_805680001_806284801_4FGL_J2157.5+3127_weekly_bin937.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.56e-05', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.67e-08', energy_flux2='1.03e-05', photon_flux_error='1.85e-08', dlogl='5.25e-02', energy_flux='1.08e-05', photon_flux2='3.05e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-21 19:45:45.305343', photon_index_error2='0.54', photon_index2='2.34', ts='3.08', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.33e-08', energy_flux_error2='7.18e-06', EG='0.76', time_epoch_completed='1784688345.31', return_code='0', job_id='32678729', GAL2='1.00', EG2='0.76', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='7.49e-06', photon_flux_error2='2.21e-08', ts2='3.19', photon_index='2.17' WHERE bin_id='937' AND source_name='4FGL J2157.5+3127' AND cadence='weekly'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Jul 21 19:45:45 PDT 2026