********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 19472.08 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 253 CALLS 1470 TOTAL EDM= .85E-05 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm 1.1036 3.4614 .11259E-02 -1.5687 2 Prefactor .10000E-03 1.2886 .90712E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 norm 22.795 25.868 .20956E-03 -1.5612 4 Prefactor .21483E-07 9.9099 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 Prefactor 53.952 81.813 .13607E-03 -1.5561 6 Prefactor .25231E-05 64.479 .99614E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor .55622E-07 17.130 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 Prefactor .0000 1.9113 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 norm .33307E-09 4.3989 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 10 norm .0000 .49639 .42118E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 11 norm .0000 .99052 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 norm .16653E-09 4.5989 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 13 Prefactor .17104E-05 64.488 .94794E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 14 Prefactor .0000 2.8541 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm 1.0068 .74304 .44004E-03 -1.5688 16 Normalizat .99393 .21728 .14774 -.93234 17 Prefactor 1.0242 .44457E-01 .29987E-01 -.91927 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.47968e-06 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 3.46139 2 6.45822e-06 3 25.8676 4 0.000923263 5 81.8143 6 0.0255104 7 0.00195274 8 4.14965e-06 9 7.35478e-05 10 4.34054e-06 11 4.65132e-06 12 5.42541e-05 13 0.0210047 14 5.48926e-06 15 0.743044 16 0.217478 17 0.0444583 /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/pyfits/__init__.py:22: PyFITSDeprecationWarning: PyFITS is deprecated, please use astropy.io.fits PyFITSDeprecationWarning) # noqa Likelihood Analysis Tool Support Contact: Daniel Kocevski (daniel.kocevski@nasa.gov) Importing modules... This is make3FGLxml version 01r0. The default diffuse model files and names are for pass 8 and assume you have v10r00p05 of the Fermi Science Tools or higher. This is make4FGLDR3xml version 01r09. The default diffuse model files and names are for P8R3, 4FGL DRs, and the default fermitools directory locations. WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/matplotlib/cbook/deprecation.py:106: MatplotlibDeprecationWarning: The mpl_toolkits.axes_grid module was deprecated in version 2.1. Use mpl_toolkits.axes_grid1 and mpl_toolkits.axisartist provies the same functionality instead. warnings.warn(message, mplDeprecation, stacklevel=1) WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 19472.0790772 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2115.4+2932 Spectrum: LogParabola 472 norm: 3.331e-10 7.355e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 473 alpha: 2.243e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 474 beta: 1.080e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 475 Eb: 8.394e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 748 Prefactor: 1.024e+00 4.446e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 749 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 750 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 747 Normalization: 9.939e-01 2.175e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 318.874 29.546 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 7.51987151042e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 2.97861583501e-05 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/31853972/likelihoodResults_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 19472.0793181 delta logL = -0.000240906811086 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 19472.0790774 delta logL = -1.42244971357e-07 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .37231E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'alpha ' 1.6730 1.0000 .0000 5.0000 3 'Normalizat' .99388 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.0242 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .7590E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 19472.08 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 40 CALLS 250 TOTAL EDM= .67E-12 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .0000 3.6398 .42118E-03** at limit ** 2 alpha 2.4966 1.0747 -.10469E-04 .0000 3 Normalizat .99393 1.3240 -.50820E-05 -.20085E-04 4 Prefactor 1.0242 1.2292 .33601E-06 -.56038E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0 alpha = 2.49663 Normalizat = 0.993934 Prefactor = 1.02419 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 19472.08 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 9 CALLS 259 TOTAL EDM= .67E-12 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .0000 3.6398 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 alpha 1.2766 1.2203 -.10469E-04 -.13498E-02 3 Normalizat .99393 1.3240 -.50820E-05 -.93234 4 Prefactor 1.0242 1.2292 .33601E-06 -.91927 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 6.70098e-13 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 2.87874e-06 2 1.11093 3 1.37202 4 1.26568 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 19472.0790772 delta logL = 4.0017766878e-11 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2115.4+2932 Spectrum: LogParabola 472 norm: 0.000e+00 2.879e-06 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 473 alpha: 2.497e+00 1.111e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) 474 beta: 1.080e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 475 Eb: 8.394e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 748 Prefactor: 1.024e+00 1.266e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 749 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 750 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 747 Normalization: 9.939e-01 1.372e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 318.874 29.546 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/31853972/cmap_HighResolution_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.98e-05', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='7.52e-08', time_completed='2026-07-16 01:00:26.049714', job_id='31853972', GAL2='1.02', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.99', EG='0.99', time_epoch_completed='1784188826.05', return_code2='101', ts='-0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='1.02', dlogl='4.00e-11', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.24' WHERE bin_id='2173' AND source_name='4FGL J2115.4+2932' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Thu Jul 16 01:00:26 PDT 2026 number of points = 7429 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173 RA = 318.874, Dec = 29.5456 tmin = 802569601, tmax = 802828801 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='31854797', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2026-07-16 00:59:21.229652', time_epoch_executed='1784188761.23' WHERE source_name='4FGL J2115.4+2932' and cadence='daily' and bin_id='2173' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/31854797 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/31854797/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=802569601.0 && nMetStart<802828801.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=802569601.0 && nMetStart<802828801.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 46 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft1_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=802569601.0 && nMetStart<802828801.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 46 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft2_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft1_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits ra=318.874 dec=29.5456 rad=12.0 tmin=802569601.0 tmax=802828801.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 3.23 user 2.46 sys 0.17 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft2_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft2_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 0.87 user 0.18 sys 0.13 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 1940 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft2_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits sctable="SC_DATA" outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ltcube_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft2_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits .....................! real 8.13 user 7.16 sys 0.26 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft2_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ltcube_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/expmap_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ltcube_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits .....................! real 62.69 user 58.31 sys 3.69 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Extended source Cygnus Loop in ROI, make sure /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/ExtendedSources/Extended_8years/Templates/CygnusLoop.fits is the correct path to the extended template. Extended source gamma Cygni in ROI with RadialDisk spatial model. Extended source Cygnus Cocoon in ROI with RadialGaussian spatial model. Extended source HB 21 in ROI with RadialDisk spatial model. Added 208 point sources and 4 extended sources If using unbinned likelihood you will need to rerun gtdiffrsp for the extended sources or rerun the makeModel function with optional argument psForce=True Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J2115.4+2932 @ 318.874 29.5456 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft2_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/cmap_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=318.874 yref=29.5456 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.71 user 0.20 sys 0.14 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft2_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/cmap_HighResolution_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=318.874 yref=29.5456 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.86 user 0.21 sys 0.13 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft2_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/Model_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source Cygnus Cocoon adding source Cygnus Loop adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 adding source HB 21 adding source gamma Cygni Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits....................! real 125.00 user 122.59 sys 1.33 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft2_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/expmap_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ltcube_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/31854797/Model_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J2115.4+2932' 4FGL J2115.4+2932 Spectrum: LogParabola 472 norm: 6.398e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 473 alpha: 2.243e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 474 beta: 1.080e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 475 Eb: 8.394e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ft2_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/31854797/expmap_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/31854797/ltcube_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/31854797/Model_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 19472.0796579 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 19472.0852544 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' 1.1058 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .10013E-03 1.0000 .10000E-03 10000. 3 'norm ' 22.782 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' .14480E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'Prefactor ' 54.018 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .31848 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' .67889E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' .15822E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'norm ' .77985E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'norm ' .30431E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'norm ' .33307E-09 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'norm ' .34217E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' .35583 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'Prefactor ' .31049E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' 1.0068 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'Normalizat' .99379 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 17 'Prefactor ' 1.0241 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .7590E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 19472.08 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 124 CALLS 1217 TOTAL EDM= .87E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 2.1% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm 1.1036 3.4997 .27033E-06 -.48297E-03 2 Prefactor .10000E-03 1.2859 .17916E-05** at limit ** 3 norm 22.795 1.1008 .46668E-08 -.54686E-02 4 Prefactor .21483E-07 9.9001 -.80779E-06** at limit ** 5 Prefactor 53.952 7.4073 -.45320E-07 .25985 6 Prefactor .25231E-05 24.983 -.10504E-06** at limit ** 7 Prefactor .55622E-07 17.119 -.86661E-06** at limit ** 8 Prefactor .0000 1.9183 .29125E-08** at limit ** 9 norm .33307E-09 4.4280 .22729E-06** at limit ** 10 norm .0000 1.6982 .25792E-06** at limit ** 11 norm .0000 .99569 .18695E-06** at limit ** 12 norm .16653E-09 4.6017 .12150E-06** at limit ** 13 Prefactor .17104E-05 39.993 -.49879E-07** at limit ** 14 Prefactor .0000 2.8574 .32670E-06** at limit ** 15 norm 1.0068 .73830 -.38574E-07 .25576E-02 16 Normalizat .99393 .21498 .40929E-05 .18461E-04 17 Prefactor 1.0242 .45322E-01 -.77828E-06 .83267E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 1.10358 Prefactor = 0.0001 norm = 22.7949 Prefactor = 2.14828e-08 Prefactor = 53.9516 Prefactor = 2.52315e-06 Prefactor = 5.56222e-08 Prefactor = 0 norm = 3.33067e-10 norm = 0 norm = 0 norm = 1.66533e-10 Prefactor = 1.71035e-06 Prefactor = 0 norm = 1.00682 Normalizat = 0.993934 Prefactor = 1.02419 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 19472.08 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 253 CALLS 1470 TOTAL EDM= .85E-05 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm 1.1036 3.4614 .11259E-02 -1.5687 2 Prefactor .10000E-03 1.2886 .90712E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 norm 22.795 25.868 .20956E-03 -1.5612 4 Prefactor .21483E-07 9.9099 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 Prefactor 53.952 81.813 .13607E-03 -1.5561 6 Prefactor .25231E-05 64.479 .99614E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor .55622E-07 17.130 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 Prefactor .0000 1.9113 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 norm .33307E-09 4.3989 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 10 norm .0000 .49639 .42118E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 11 norm .0000 .99052 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 norm .16653E-09 4.5989 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 13 Prefactor .17104E-05 64.488 .94794E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 14 Prefactor .0000 2.8541 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm 1.0068 .74304 .44004E-03 -1.5688 16 Normalizat .99393 .21728 .14774 -.93234 17 Prefactor 1.0242 .44457E-01 .29987E-01 -.91927 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.47968e-06 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 3.46139 2 6.45822e-06 3 25.8676 4 0.000923263 5 81.8143 6 0.0255104 7 0.00195274 8 4.14965e-06 9 7.35478e-05 10 4.34054e-06 11 4.65132e-06 12 5.42541e-05 13 0.0210047 14 5.48926e-06 15 0.743044 16 0.217478 17 0.0444583 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 19472.0790772 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2115.4+2932 Spectrum: LogParabola 472 norm: 3.331e-10 7.355e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 473 alpha: 2.243e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 474 beta: 1.080e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 475 Eb: 8.394e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 748 Prefactor: 1.024e+00 4.446e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 749 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 750 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 747 Normalization: 9.939e-01 2.175e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 318.874 29.546 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 7.51987151042e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 2.97861583501e-05 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/31854797/likelihoodResults_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 19472.0793181 delta logL = -0.000240906811086 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 19472.0790774 delta logL = -1.42244971357e-07 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .37231E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'alpha ' 1.6730 1.0000 .0000 5.0000 3 'Normalizat' .99388 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.0242 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .7590E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 19472.08 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 40 CALLS 250 TOTAL EDM= .67E-12 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .0000 3.6398 .42118E-03** at limit ** 2 alpha 2.4966 1.0747 -.10469E-04 .0000 3 Normalizat .99393 1.3240 -.50820E-05 -.20085E-04 4 Prefactor 1.0242 1.2292 .33601E-06 -.56038E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0 alpha = 2.49663 Normalizat = 0.993934 Prefactor = 1.02419 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 19472.08 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 9 CALLS 259 TOTAL EDM= .67E-12 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .0000 3.6398 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 alpha 1.2766 1.2203 -.10469E-04 -.13498E-02 3 Normalizat .99393 1.3240 -.50820E-05 -.93234 4 Prefactor 1.0242 1.2292 .33601E-06 -.91927 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 6.70098e-13 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 2.87874e-06 2 1.11093 3 1.37202 4 1.26568 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 19472.0790772 delta logL = 4.0017766878e-11 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2115.4+2932 Spectrum: LogParabola 472 norm: 0.000e+00 2.879e-06 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 473 alpha: 2.497e+00 1.111e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) 474 beta: 1.080e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 475 Eb: 8.394e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 748 Prefactor: 1.024e+00 1.266e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 749 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 750 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 747 Normalization: 9.939e-01 1.372e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 318.874 29.546 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/31854797/cmap_HighResolution_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2115.4+2932_daily_bin2173.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.98e-05', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='7.52e-08', time_completed='2026-07-16 01:09:44.478606', job_id='31854797', GAL2='1.02', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.99', EG='0.99', time_epoch_completed='1784189384.48', return_code2='101', ts='-0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='1.02', dlogl='4.00e-11', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.24' WHERE bin_id='2173' AND source_name='4FGL J2115.4+2932' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Thu Jul 16 01:09:44 PDT 2026