********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 9703.160 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 23 CALLS 311 TOTAL EDM= .28E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm 7.7049 15.598 .57780E-06 -1.5652 2 alpha 1.0096 1.3054 .26722E-03 -.63871 3 Normalizat .50042 .21666 .19396E-04 -1.1240 4 Prefactor 1.1835 .10217 .30376E-04 -.86841 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 2.78621e-11 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 15.5982 2 1.42116 3 0.217027 4 0.102187 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 9703.1595975 delta logL = 0.171794893367 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2031.2-4121 Spectrum: LogParabola 278 norm: 7.705e+00 1.560e+01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 279 alpha: 1.010e+00 1.421e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) 280 beta: 5.212e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 281 Eb: 1.567e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 556 Prefactor: 1.183e+00 1.022e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 557 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 558 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 555 Normalization: 5.004e-01 2.170e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 0.00 Ra Dec: 307.811 -41.357 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/31817306/cmap_HighResolution_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.19e-05', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='2.80e-08', time_completed='2026-07-15 17:42:47.388231', job_id='31817306', GAL2='1.18', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.50', EG='0.49', time_epoch_completed='1784162567.39', return_code2='0', ts='0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='1.19', dlogl='1.72e-01', ts2='0.35', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.28' WHERE bin_id='2173' AND source_name='4FGL J2031.2-4121' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Wed Jul 15 17:42:47 PDT 2026 /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/pyfits/__init__.py:22: PyFITSDeprecationWarning: PyFITS is deprecated, please use astropy.io.fits PyFITSDeprecationWarning) # noqa Likelihood Analysis Tool Support Contact: Daniel Kocevski (daniel.kocevski@nasa.gov) Importing modules... This is make3FGLxml version 01r0. The default diffuse model files and names are for pass 8 and assume you have v10r00p05 of the Fermi Science Tools or higher. This is make4FGLDR3xml version 01r09. The default diffuse model files and names are for P8R3, 4FGL DRs, and the default fermitools directory locations. WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/matplotlib/cbook/deprecation.py:106: MatplotlibDeprecationWarning: The mpl_toolkits.axes_grid module was deprecated in version 2.1. Use mpl_toolkits.axes_grid1 and mpl_toolkits.axisartist provies the same functionality instead. warnings.warn(message, mplDeprecation, stacklevel=1) WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). e GAL_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/31817458/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits.....................! real 32.70 user 31.03 sys 1.06 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/31817458/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/31817458/ft2_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/31817458/expmap_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/31817458/ltcube_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/31817458/Model_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J2031.2-4121' 4FGL J2031.2-4121 Spectrum: LogParabola 278 norm: 1.668e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 279 alpha: 2.281e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 280 beta: 5.212e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 281 Eb: 1.567e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31817458/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31817458/ft2_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/31817458/expmap_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/31817458/ltcube_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/31817458/Model_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 9703.3491042 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 9703.33168718 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .51862E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .13455E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' 12.286 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' .99453E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'Prefactor ' 4.3556 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'norm ' 1.8944 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' .38858E-09 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' 13.421 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'norm ' .78682 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'norm ' 1.3895 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'norm ' 12.497 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'norm ' .63500 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 9.8498 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'Prefactor ' .57525E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' .26898E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'Prefactor ' 24.019 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' 9.5406 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' .83989E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Normalizat' .49455 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 20 'Prefactor ' 1.1874 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .5590E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 9703.331 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 120 CALLS 1193 TOTAL EDM= .12E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.5% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 4.8758 -.13266E-05** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .16653E-09 15.631 .44199E-06** at limit ** 3 Prefactor 12.327 8.4990 -.23600E-05 .66610E-03 4 norm .0000 5.5723 .33510E-06** at limit ** 5 Prefactor 4.3131 4.3647 -.16696E-06 .13455E-03 6 norm 1.8959 .92214 .24997E-06 .46044E-02 7 norm .0000 1.9245 -.61218E-06** at limit ** 8 norm 13.402 1.1128 .70989E-07 -.24798E-01 9 norm .78553 .83119 .35613E-06 -.26835E-02 10 norm 1.3873 1.9638 .39638E-06 .23345E-03 11 norm 12.461 1.9133 -.38119E-06 .38411E-02 12 norm .54931 .61241 .13249E-06 .60993E-02 13 Prefactor 10.190 44.844 .13311E-04 .52485E-03 14 Prefactor .0000 8.7391 .66092E-06** at limit ** 15 norm .0000 .59131 -.12599E-05** at limit ** 16 Prefactor 23.958 1.2092 .92006E-07 -.58925E-02 17 Prefactor 9.5322 6.9690 -.32871E-06 -.83410E-03 18 Prefactor .0000 4.2199 .51628E-06** at limit ** 19 Normalizat .49446 .22002 -.17319E-04 -.68479E-05 20 Prefactor 1.1875 .10430 .21009E-05 .15889E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 1.66533e-10 Prefactor = 12.3266 norm = 0 Prefactor = 4.31305 norm = 1.89593 norm = 0 norm = 13.4023 norm = 0.785528 norm = 1.38728 norm = 12.4612 norm = 0.549309 Prefactor = 10.1902 Prefactor = 0 norm = 0 Prefactor = 23.9581 Prefactor = 9.53217 Prefactor = 0 Normalizat = 0.494462 Prefactor = 1.18747 number of points = 7429 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173 RA = 307.811, Dec = -41.3574 tmin = 802569601, tmax = 802828801 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='31817795', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2026-07-15 17:42:56.422923', time_epoch_executed='1784162576.42' WHERE source_name='4FGL J2031.2-4121' and cadence='daily' and bin_id='2173' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/31817795 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/31817795/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=802569601.0 && nMetStart<802828801.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=802569601.0 && nMetStart<802828801.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 46 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft1_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=802569601.0 && nMetStart<802828801.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 46 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft2_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft1_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits ra=307.811 dec=-41.3574 rad=12.0 tmin=802569601.0 tmax=802828801.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 3.20 user 2.85 sys 0.18 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft2_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft2_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 0.57 user 0.20 sys 0.13 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 912 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft2_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits sctable="SC_DATA" ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 9703.331 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 335 CALLS 1528 TOTAL EDM= .23E-07 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 4.8647 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .16653E-09 15.665 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor 12.327 8.6253 .28553E-03 -1.5638 4 norm .0000 5.5719 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 Prefactor 4.3131 4.3673 .48239E-03 -1.5666 6 norm 1.8959 .92822 .75556E-03 -1.5680 7 norm .0000 1.9245 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 norm 13.402 14.405 .27316E-03 -1.5635 9 norm .78553 .82878 .53923E-03 -1.5690 10 norm 1.3873 2.0010 .92170E-03 -1.5684 11 norm 12.461 8.2263 .28311E-03 -1.5637 12 norm .54931 36.810 .66149E-03 -1.5693 13 Prefactor 10.190 44.654 .31904E-03 -1.5644 14 Prefactor .0000 8.7364 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .0000 .58351 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 Prefactor 23.958 18.218 .20409E-03 -1.5610 17 Prefactor 9.5322 7.0046 .32420E-03 -1.5646 18 Prefactor .0000 4.2231 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 19 Normalizat .49446 .21500 .11002 -1.1267 20 Prefactor 1.1875 .98689E-01 .34936E-01 -.86718 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 2.256e-08 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 5.84978e-06 2 9.65337e-05 3 8.62535 4 9.3131e-07 5 4.36728 6 0.928221 7 3.28164e-06 8 14.405 9 0.82878 10 2.00104 11 8.22629 12 8.99345 13 42.6637 14 1.08942e-05 15 1.90416e-06 16 18.2177 17 7.00457 18 9.96625e-07 19 0.21536 20 0.098704 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 9703.3313924 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2031.2-4121 Spectrum: LogParabola 278 norm: 5.493e-01 8.993e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 279 alpha: 2.281e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 280 beta: 5.212e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 281 Eb: 1.567e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 556 Prefactor: 1.187e+00 9.870e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 557 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 558 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 555 Normalization: 4.945e-01 2.154e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 0.00 Ra Dec: 307.811 -41.357 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 2.79626578392e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 2.19173855336e-05 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/31817458/likelihoodResults_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 9703.15965109 delta logL = 0.171741304357 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 9703.15959754 delta logL = 0.171794857793 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' 7.7007 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'alpha ' 1.0096 1.0000 .0000 5.0000 3 'Normalizat' .50042 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1835 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .5590E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 9703.160 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 75 CALLS 288 TOTAL EDM= .28E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm 7.7049 15.593 .14445E-04 .37935E-03 2 alpha 1.0096 1.3051 .66805E-02 -.32844E-05 3 Normalizat .50042 .21665 .48491E-03 -.67568E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1835 .10216 .15188E-03 -.26112E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 7.70492 alpha = 1.00959 Normalizat = 0.50042 Prefactor = 1.18347 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 9703.160 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 23 CALLS 311 TOTAL EDM= .28E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm 7.7049 15.598 .57780E-06 -1.5652 2 alpha 1.0096 1.3054 .26722E-03 -.63871 3 Normalizat .50042 .21666 .19396E-04 -1.1240 4 Prefactor 1.1835 .10217 .30376E-04 -.86841 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 2.78621e-11 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 15.5982 2 1.42116 3 0.217027 4 0.102187 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 9703.1595975 delta logL = 0.171794893367 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2031.2-4121 Spectrum: LogParabola 278 norm: 7.705e+00 1.560e+01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 279 alpha: 1.010e+00 1.421e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) 280 beta: 5.212e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 281 Eb: 1.567e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 556 Prefactor: 1.183e+00 1.022e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 557 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 558 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 555 Normalization: 5.004e-01 2.170e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 0.00 Ra Dec: 307.811 -41.357 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/31817458/cmap_HighResolution_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.19e-05', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='2.80e-08', time_completed='2026-07-15 17:44:16.863462', job_id='31817458', GAL2='1.18', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.50', EG='0.49', time_epoch_completed='1784162656.86', return_code2='0', ts='0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='1.19', dlogl='1.72e-01', ts2='0.35', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.28' WHERE bin_id='2173' AND source_name='4FGL J2031.2-4121' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Wed Jul 15 17:44:16 PDT 2026 outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ltcube_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft2_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits .....................! real 8.76 user 8.26 sys 0.23 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft2_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ltcube_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/expmap_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ltcube_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits .....................! real 73.89 user 68.77 sys 4.26 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 167 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J2031.2-4121 @ 307.811 -41.3574 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft2_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/cmap_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=307.811 yref=-41.3574 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.55 user 0.23 sys 0.13 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft2_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/cmap_HighResolution_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=307.811 yref=-41.3574 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.61 user 0.23 sys 0.13 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft2_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/Model_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits.....................! real 32.68 user 31.01 sys 1.04 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft2_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/expmap_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ltcube_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/31817795/Model_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J2031.2-4121' 4FGL J2031.2-4121 Spectrum: LogParabola 278 norm: 1.668e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 279 alpha: 2.281e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 280 beta: 5.212e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 281 Eb: 1.567e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ft2_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/31817795/expmap_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/31817795/ltcube_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/31817795/Model_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 9703.3491042 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 9703.33168718 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .51862E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .13455E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' 12.286 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' .99453E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'Prefactor ' 4.3556 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'norm ' 1.8944 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' .38858E-09 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' 13.421 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'norm ' .78682 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'norm ' 1.3895 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'norm ' 12.497 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'norm ' .63500 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 9.8498 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'Prefactor ' .57525E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' .26898E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'Prefactor ' 24.019 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' 9.5406 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' .83989E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Normalizat' .49455 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 20 'Prefactor ' 1.1874 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .5590E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 9703.331 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 120 CALLS 1193 TOTAL EDM= .12E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.5% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 4.8758 -.13266E-05** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .16653E-09 15.631 .44199E-06** at limit ** 3 Prefactor 12.327 8.4990 -.23600E-05 .66610E-03 4 norm .0000 5.5723 .33510E-06** at limit ** 5 Prefactor 4.3131 4.3647 -.16696E-06 .13455E-03 6 norm 1.8959 .92214 .24997E-06 .46044E-02 7 norm .0000 1.9245 -.61218E-06** at limit ** 8 norm 13.402 1.1128 .70989E-07 -.24798E-01 9 norm .78553 .83119 .35613E-06 -.26835E-02 10 norm 1.3873 1.9638 .39638E-06 .23345E-03 11 norm 12.461 1.9133 -.38119E-06 .38411E-02 12 norm .54931 .61241 .13249E-06 .60993E-02 13 Prefactor 10.190 44.844 .13311E-04 .52485E-03 14 Prefactor .0000 8.7391 .66092E-06** at limit ** 15 norm .0000 .59131 -.12599E-05** at limit ** 16 Prefactor 23.958 1.2092 .92006E-07 -.58925E-02 17 Prefactor 9.5322 6.9690 -.32871E-06 -.83410E-03 18 Prefactor .0000 4.2199 .51628E-06** at limit ** 19 Normalizat .49446 .22002 -.17319E-04 -.68479E-05 20 Prefactor 1.1875 .10430 .21009E-05 .15889E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 1.66533e-10 Prefactor = 12.3266 norm = 0 Prefactor = 4.31305 norm = 1.89593 norm = 0 norm = 13.4023 norm = 0.785528 norm = 1.38728 norm = 12.4612 norm = 0.549309 Prefactor = 10.1902 Prefactor = 0 norm = 0 Prefactor = 23.9581 Prefactor = 9.53217 Prefactor = 0 Normalizat = 0.494462 Prefactor = 1.18747 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 9703.331 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 335 CALLS 1528 TOTAL EDM= .23E-07 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 4.8647 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .16653E-09 15.665 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor 12.327 8.6253 .28553E-03 -1.5638 4 norm .0000 5.5719 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 Prefactor 4.3131 4.3673 .48239E-03 -1.5666 6 norm 1.8959 .92822 .75556E-03 -1.5680 7 norm .0000 1.9245 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 norm 13.402 14.405 .27316E-03 -1.5635 9 norm .78553 .82878 .53923E-03 -1.5690 10 norm 1.3873 2.0010 .92170E-03 -1.5684 11 norm 12.461 8.2263 .28311E-03 -1.5637 12 norm .54931 36.810 .66149E-03 -1.5693 13 Prefactor 10.190 44.654 .31904E-03 -1.5644 14 Prefactor .0000 8.7364 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .0000 .58351 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 Prefactor 23.958 18.218 .20409E-03 -1.5610 17 Prefactor 9.5322 7.0046 .32420E-03 -1.5646 18 Prefactor .0000 4.2231 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 19 Normalizat .49446 .21500 .11002 -1.1267 20 Prefactor 1.1875 .98689E-01 .34936E-01 -.86718 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 2.256e-08 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 5.84978e-06 2 9.65337e-05 3 8.62535 4 9.3131e-07 5 4.36728 6 0.928221 7 3.28164e-06 8 14.405 9 0.82878 10 2.00104 11 8.22629 12 8.99345 13 42.6637 14 1.08942e-05 15 1.90416e-06 16 18.2177 17 7.00457 18 9.96625e-07 19 0.21536 20 0.098704 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 9703.3313924 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2031.2-4121 Spectrum: LogParabola 278 norm: 5.493e-01 8.993e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 279 alpha: 2.281e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 280 beta: 5.212e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 281 Eb: 1.567e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 556 Prefactor: 1.187e+00 9.870e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 557 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 558 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 555 Normalization: 4.945e-01 2.154e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 0.00 Ra Dec: 307.811 -41.357 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 2.79626578392e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 2.19173855336e-05 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/31817795/likelihoodResults_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 9703.15965109 delta logL = 0.171741304357 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 9703.15959754 delta logL = 0.171794857793 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' 7.7007 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'alpha ' 1.0096 1.0000 .0000 5.0000 3 'Normalizat' .50042 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1835 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .5590E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 9703.160 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 75 CALLS 288 TOTAL EDM= .28E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm 7.7049 15.593 .14445E-04 .37935E-03 2 alpha 1.0096 1.3051 .66805E-02 -.32844E-05 3 Normalizat .50042 .21665 .48491E-03 -.67568E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1835 .10216 .15188E-03 -.26112E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 7.70492 alpha = 1.00959 Normalizat = 0.50042 Prefactor = 1.18347 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 9703.160 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 23 CALLS 311 TOTAL EDM= .28E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm 7.7049 15.598 .57780E-06 -1.5652 2 alpha 1.0096 1.3054 .26722E-03 -.63871 3 Normalizat .50042 .21666 .19396E-04 -1.1240 4 Prefactor 1.1835 .10217 .30376E-04 -.86841 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 2.78621e-11 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 15.5982 2 1.42116 3 0.217027 4 0.102187 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 9703.1595975 delta logL = 0.171794893367 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J2031.2-4121 Spectrum: LogParabola 278 norm: 7.705e+00 1.560e+01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 279 alpha: 1.010e+00 1.421e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) 280 beta: 5.212e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 281 Eb: 1.567e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 556 Prefactor: 1.183e+00 1.022e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 557 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 558 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 555 Normalization: 5.004e-01 2.170e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 0.00 Ra Dec: 307.811 -41.357 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/31817795/cmap_HighResolution_802569601_802828801_4FGL_J2031.2-4121_daily_bin2173.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.19e-05', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='2.80e-08', time_completed='2026-07-15 17:47:48.424891', job_id='31817795', GAL2='1.18', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.50', EG='0.49', time_epoch_completed='1784162868.42', return_code2='0', ts='0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='1.19', dlogl='1.72e-01', ts2='0.35', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.28' WHERE bin_id='2173' AND source_name='4FGL J2031.2-4121' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Wed Jul 15 17:47:48 PDT 2026