RGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MACHINE ACCURACY LIMITS FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 13631.26 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 343 CALLS 1259 TOTAL EDM= .12E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .0000 .65160 .0000 ** at limit ** 2 norm 110.29 75.335 .0000 .34250E-04 3 Prefactor .0000 24.652 .0000 ** at limit ** 4 norm .0000 2.2771 .0000 ** at limit ** 5 Prefactor 2.4292 4.3061 .0000 .17845 6 Prefactor 14.970 15.346 .0000 -.35466E-03 7 Prefactor 10.702 12.123 .0000 .74507E-03 8 norm .0000 18.443 .0000 ** at limit ** 9 norm 1.6510 4.3839 .0000 .16859E-01 10 norm 1.2617 3.4829 .0000 .23393E-01 11 Prefactor .0000 4.4958 .0000 ** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 15.879 18.481 .0000 -.62826E-02 13 Prefactor .49960E-09 72.252 .0000 ** at limit ** 14 Normalizat 1.6592 .24662 .0000 .11774E-04 15 Prefactor .97515 .56955E-01 .0000 -.12267E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0 norm = 110.287 Prefactor = 0 norm = 0 Prefactor = 2.42922 Prefactor = 14.9702 Prefactor = 10.7019 norm = 0 norm = 1.65098 norm = 1.26172 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 15.8785 Prefactor = 4.996e-10 Normalizat = 1.65921 Prefactor = 0.97515 /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/pyfits/__init__.py:22: PyFITSDeprecationWarning: PyFITS is deprecated, please use astropy.io.fits PyFITSDeprecationWarning) # noqa Likelihood Analysis Tool Support Contact: Daniel Kocevski (daniel.kocevski@nasa.gov) Importing modules... This is make3FGLxml version 01r0. The default diffuse model files and names are for pass 8 and assume you have v10r00p05 of the Fermi Science Tools or higher. This is make4FGLDR3xml version 01r09. The default diffuse model files and names are for P8R3, 4FGL DRs, and the default fermitools directory locations. WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/matplotlib/cbook/deprecation.py:106: MatplotlibDeprecationWarning: The mpl_toolkits.axes_grid module was deprecated in version 2.1. Use mpl_toolkits.axes_grid1 and mpl_toolkits.axisartist provies the same functionality instead. warnings.warn(message, mplDeprecation, stacklevel=1) WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 13631.26 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 180 CALLS 1439 TOTAL EDM= .89E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .0000 .65226 .84235E-04 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 norm 110.29 75.382 .38504E-05 -1.5498 3 Prefactor .0000 25.152 .84235E-04 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 norm .0000 2.2772 .84235E-04 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 Prefactor 2.4292 4.2874 .13056E-03 -1.5677 6 Prefactor 14.970 15.352 .10281E-04 -1.5631 7 Prefactor 10.702 12.035 .12186E-04 -1.5643 8 norm .0000 18.444 .84235E-04 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 norm 1.6510 3.9093 .28139E-04 -1.5682 10 norm 1.2617 3.0841 .24558E-04 -1.5685 11 Prefactor .0000 4.4974 .84235E-04 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 15.879 18.482 .10028E-04 -1.5628 13 Prefactor .49960E-09 72.266 .18066E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 14 Normalizat 1.6592 .26840 .49013E-03 -.73398 15 Prefactor .97515 .62272E-01 .14824E-03 -.93563 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.92871e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.25358e-07 2 75.3825 3 1.69882e-05 4 1.80193e-06 5 4.28737 6 15.3523 7 12.0349 8 3.60573e-05 9 3.90928 10 3.08408 11 1.70084e-06 12 18.4821 13 0.000387551 14 0.268633 15 0.0622765 number of points = 7529 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212 RA = 282.146, Dec = 32.7309 tmin = 812678401, tmax = 812937601 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='40061715', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2026-10-06 16:40:34.683109', time_epoch_executed='1791330034.68' WHERE source_name='4FGL J1848.5+3243' and cadence='daily' and bin_id='2212' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/40061715 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/40061715/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=812678401.0 && nMetStart<812937601.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=812678401.0 && nMetStart<812937601.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 47 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft1_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=812678401.0 && nMetStart<812937601.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 47 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft2_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft1_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits ra=282.146 dec=32.7309 rad=12.0 tmin=812678401.0 tmax=812937601.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 3.82 user 3.05 sys 0.23 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft2_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft2_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 0.51 user 0.23 sys 0.14 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 1303 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft2_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits sctable="SC_DATA" outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061658/ltcube_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/40061658/ft2_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits .....................! real 8.80 user 8.33 sys 0.22 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061658/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061658/ft2_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/40061658/ltcube_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061658/expmap_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/40061658/ltcube_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits .....................! real 73.85 user 68.98 sys 4.13 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Extended source W 51C in ROI, make sure /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/ExtendedSources/Extended_8years/Templates/W51C.fits is the correct path to the extended template. Extended source gamma Cygni in ROI with RadialDisk spatial model. Extended source Cygnus Cocoon in ROI with RadialGaussian spatial model. Added 241 point sources and 3 extended sources If using unbinned likelihood you will need to rerun gtdiffrsp for the extended sources or rerun the makeModel function with optional argument psForce=True Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J1848.5+3243 @ 282.146 32.7309 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061658/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061658/ft2_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061658/cmap_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=282.146 yref=32.7309 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.54 user 0.25 sys 0.12 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061658/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061658/ft2_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061658/cmap_HighResolution_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=282.146 yref=32.7309 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.52 user 0.26 sys 0.13 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061658/ft1_filteredDone. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 13631.2637866 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1848.5+3243 Spectrum: LogParabola 371 norm: 1.262e+00 3.084e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 372 alpha: 2.484e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 373 beta: 1.039e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 374 Eb: 1.215e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 850 Prefactor: 9.751e-01 6.228e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 851 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 852 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 849 Normalization: 1.659e+00 2.686e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 0.30 Ra Dec: 282.146 32.731 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 1.56577802534e-07 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 5.16134435028e-05 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/40061471/likelihoodResults_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 13629.8278931 delta logL = 1.43589351705 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 13629.5438251 delta logL = 1.71996154378 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .49847E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'alpha ' 5.0000 1.0000 .0000 5.0000 3 'Normalizat' 1.5048 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99369 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .8610E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 13629.54 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 95 CALLS 358 TOTAL EDM= .61E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .49809E-01 .33781E-01 .14355E-04** at limit ** 2 alpha 5.0000 .46057 .50000 ** at limit ** 3 Normalizat 1.5050 .27427 .50932E-03 -.78392E-04 4 Prefactor .99361 .63063E-01 .14695E-03 -.33610E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0.049809 alpha = 5 Normalizat = 1.50502 Prefactor = 0.993609 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 13629.54 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 31 CALLS 389 TOTAL EDM= .84E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .49809E-01 .32725E-01 .57421E-06 -1.5703 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 alpha 5.0000 .43387 .50000 1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Normalizat 1.5050 .27490 .20373E-04 -.77637 4 Prefactor .99361 .63117E-01 .29390E-04 -.92943 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.36024e-11 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.0327249 2 2.35458e-05 3 0.27517 4 0.0631219 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 13629.5438204 delta logL = 1.71996617947 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1848.5+3243 Spectrum: LogParabola 371 norm: 4.981e-02 3.272e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 372 alpha: 5.000e+00 2.355e-05 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) 373 beta: 1.039e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 374 Eb: 1.215e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 850 Prefactor: 9.936e-01 6.312e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 851 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 852 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 849 Normalization: 1.505e+00 2.752e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 4.12 Ra Dec: 282.146 32.731 Photon Index (Free Index): 5.00 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Free Index): 1.96e-07 +/- 1.28e-07 Energy Flux (Free Index): 2.70e-05 +/- 1.77e-05 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/40061471/cmap_HighResolution_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='5.16e-05', comment='SUCCESS', energy_flux2='2.70e-05', dlogl='1.72e+00', photon_flux2='1.96e-07', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-10-06 16:42:10.263508', photon_index_error2='0.00', photon_index2='5.00', ts='0.30', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='0.98', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='1.57e-07', energy_flux_error2='1.77e-05', EG='1.66', time_epoch_completed='1791330130.26', return_code='0', job_id='40061471', GAL2='0.99', EG2='1.51', return_code2='0', photon_flux_error2='1.28e-07', ts2='4.12', photon_index='2.48' WHERE bin_id='2212' AND source_name='4FGL J1848.5+3243' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Oct 6 16:42:10 PDT 2026 utfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ltcube_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft2_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits .....................! real 12.85 user 12.28 sys 0.23 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft2_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ltcube_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/expmap_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ltcube_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits .....................! real 76.39 user 71.46 sys 4.16 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Extended source W 51C in ROI, make sure /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/ExtendedSources/Extended_8years/Templates/W51C.fits is the correct path to the extended template. Extended source gamma Cygni in ROI with RadialDisk spatial model. Extended source Cygnus Cocoon in ROI with RadialGaussian spatial model. Added 241 point sources and 3 extended sources If using unbinned likelihood you will need to rerun gtdiffrsp for the extended sources or rerun the makeModel function with optional argument psForce=True Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J1848.5+3243 @ 282.146 32.7309 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft2_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/cmap_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=282.146 yref=32.7309 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.50 user 0.25 sys 0.13 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft2_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/cmap_HighResolution_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=282.146 yref=32.7309 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.48 user 0.27 sys 0.13 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft1_filter_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061658/ft2_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/40061658/Model_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source Cygnus Cocoon adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 adding source W 51C adding source gamma Cygni Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/40061658/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits.....................! real 103.08 user 101.04 sys 1.24 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/40061658/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/40061658/ft2_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/40061658/expmap_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/40061658/ltcube_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/40061658/Model_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1848.5+3243' 4FGL J1848.5+3243 Spectrum: LogParabola 371 norm: 2.020e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 372 alpha: 2.484e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 373 beta: 1.039e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 374 Eb: 1.215e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/40061658/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/40061658/ft2_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/40061658/expmap_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/40061658/ltcube_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/40061658/Model_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 13631.3021016 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 13631.2671941 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .63510E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'norm ' 107.94 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' .15558E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' .92493E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'Prefactor ' 2.4531 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' 15.155 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' 10.798 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .18334E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'norm ' 1.6351 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'norm ' 1.2677 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .12491E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 15.927 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' .39274 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'Normalizat' 1.6594 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 15 'Prefactor ' .97502 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .8610E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MACHINE ACCURACY LIMITS FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 13631.26 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 343 CALLS 1259 TOTAL EDM= .12E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .0000 .65160 .0000 ** at limit ** 2 norm 110.29 75.335 .0000 .34250E-04 3 Prefactor .0000 24.652 .0000 ** at limit ** 4 norm .0000 2.2771 .0000 ** at limit ** 5 Prefactor 2.4292 4.3061 .0000 .17845 6 Prefactor 14.970 15.346 .0000 -.35466E-03 7 Prefactor 10.702 12.123 .0000 .74507E-03 8 norm .0000 18.443 .0000 ** at limit ** 9 norm 1.6510 4.3839 .0000 .16859E-01 10 norm 1.2617 3.4829 .0000 .23393E-01 11 Prefactor .0000 4.4958 .0000 ** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 15.879 18.481 .0000 -.62826E-02 13 Prefactor .49960E-09 72.252 .0000 ** at limit ** 14 Normalizat 1.6592 .24662 .0000 .11774E-04 15 Prefactor .97515 .56955E-01 .0000 -.12267E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0 norm = 110.287 Prefactor = 0 norm = 0 Prefactor = 2.42922 Prefactor = 14.9702 Prefactor = 10.7019 norm = 0 norm = 1.65098 norm = 1.26172 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 15.8785 Prefactor = 4.996e-10 Normalizat = 1.65921 Prefactor = 0.97515 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 13631.26 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 180 CALLS 1439 TOTAL EDM= .89E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .0000 .65226 .84235E-04 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 norm 110.29 75.382 .38504E-05 -1.5498 3 Prefactor .0000 25.152 .84235E-04 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 norm .0000 2.2772 .84235E-04 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 Prefactor 2.4292 4.2874 .13056E-03 -1.5677 6 Prefactor 14.970 15.352 .10281E-04 -1.5631 7 Prefactor 10.702 12.035 .12186E-04 -1.5643 8 norm .0000 18.444 .84235E-04 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 norm 1.6510 3.9093 .28139E-04 -1.5682 10 norm 1.2617 3.0841 .24558E-04 -1.5685 11 Prefactor .0000 4.4974 .84235E-04 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 15.879 18.482 .10028E-04 -1.5628 13 Prefactor .49960E-09 72.266 .18066E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 14 Normalizat 1.6592 .26840 .49013E-03 -.73398 15 Prefactor .97515 .62272E-01 .14824E-03 -.93563 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.92871e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.25358e-07 2 75.3825 3 1.69882e-05 4 1.80193e-06 5 4.28737 6 15.3523 7 12.0349 8 3.60573e-05 9 3.90928 10 3.08408 11 1.70084e-06 12 18.4821 13 0.000387551 14 0.268633 15 0.0622765 ed_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft2_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/Model_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source Cygnus Cocoon adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 adding source W 51C adding source gamma Cygni Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits.....................! real 105.01 user 102.98 sys 1.31 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft2_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/expmap_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ltcube_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/40061715/Model_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1848.5+3243' 4FGL J1848.5+3243 Spectrum: LogParabola 371 norm: 2.020e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 372 alpha: 2.484e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 373 beta: 1.039e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 374 Eb: 1.215e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ft2_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/40061715/expmap_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/40061715/ltcube_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/40061715/Model_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 13631.3021016 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 13631.2671941 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .63510E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'norm ' 107.94 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' .15558E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' .92493E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'Prefactor ' 2.4531 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' 15.155 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' 10.798 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .18334E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'norm ' 1.6351 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'norm ' 1.2677 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .12491E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 15.927 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' .39274 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'Normalizat' 1.6594 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 15 'Prefactor ' .97502 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .8610E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MACHINE ACCURACY LIMITS FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 13631.26 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 343 CALLS 1259 TOTAL EDM= .12E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .0000 .65160 .0000 ** at limit ** 2 norm 110.29 75.335 .0000 .34250E-04 3 Prefactor .0000 24.652 .0000 ** at limit ** 4 norm .0000 2.2771 .0000 ** at limit ** 5 Prefactor 2.4292 4.3061 .0000 .17845 6 Prefactor 14.970 15.346 .0000 -.35466E-03 7 Prefactor 10.702 12.123 .0000 .74507E-03 8 norm .0000 18.443 .0000 ** at limit ** 9 norm 1.6510 4.3839 .0000 .16859E-01 10 norm 1.2617 3.4829 .0000 .23393E-01 11 Prefactor .0000 4.4958 .0000 ** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 15.879 18.481 .0000 -.62826E-02 13 Prefactor .49960E-09 72.252 .0000 ** at limit ** 14 Normalizat 1.6592 .24662 .0000 .11774E-04 15 Prefactor .97515 .56955E-01 .0000 -.12267E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0 norm = 110.287 Prefactor = 0 norm = 0 Prefactor = 2.42922 Prefactor = 14.9702 Prefactor = 10.7019 norm = 0 norm = 1.65098 norm = 1.26172 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 15.8785 Prefactor = 4.996e-10 Normalizat = 1.65921 Prefactor = 0.97515 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 13631.2637866 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1848.5+3243 Spectrum: LogParabola 371 norm: 1.262e+00 3.084e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 372 alpha: 2.484e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 373 beta: 1.039e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 374 Eb: 1.215e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 850 Prefactor: 9.751e-01 6.228e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 851 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 852 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 849 Normalization: 1.659e+00 2.686e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 0.30 Ra Dec: 282.146 32.731 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 1.56577802534e-07 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 5.16134435028e-05 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/40061658/likelihoodResults_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 13629.8278931 delta logL = 1.43589351705 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 13629.5438251 delta logL = 1.71996154378 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .49847E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'alpha ' 5.0000 1.0000 .0000 5.0000 3 'Normalizat' 1.5048 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99369 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .8610E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 13629.54 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 95 CALLS 358 TOTAL EDM= .61E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .49809E-01 .33781E-01 .14355E-04** at limit ** 2 alpha 5.0000 .46057 .50000 ** at limit ** 3 Normalizat 1.5050 .27427 .50932E-03 -.78392E-04 4 Prefactor .99361 .63063E-01 .14695E-03 -.33610E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0.049809 alpha = 5 Normalizat = 1.50502 Prefactor = 0.993609 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 13629.54 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 31 CALLS 389 TOTAL EDM= .84E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .49809E-01 .32725E-01 .57421E-06 -1.5703 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 alpha 5.0000 .43387 .50000 1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Normalizat 1.5050 .27490 .20373E-04 -.77637 4 Prefactor .99361 .63117E-01 .29390E-04 -.92943 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.36024e-11 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.0327249 2 2.35458e-05 3 0.27517 4 0.0631219 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 13629.5438204 delta logL = 1.71996617947 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1848.5+3243 Spectrum: LogParabola 371 norm: 4.981e-02 3.272e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 372 alpha: 5.000e+00 2.355e-05 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) 373 beta: 1.039e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 374 Eb: 1.215e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 850 Prefactor: 9.936e-01 6.312e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 851 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 852 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 849 Normalization: 1.505e+00 2.752e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 4.12 Ra Dec: 282.146 32.731 Photon Index (Free Index): 5.00 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Free Index): 1.96e-07 +/- 1.28e-07 Energy Flux (Free Index): 2.70e-05 +/- 1.77e-05 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/40061658/cmap_HighResolution_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='5.16e-05', comment='SUCCESS', energy_flux2='2.70e-05', dlogl='1.72e+00', photon_flux2='1.96e-07', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-10-06 16:47:25.932580', photon_index_error2='0.00', photon_index2='5.00', ts='0.30', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='0.98', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='1.57e-07', energy_flux_error2='1.77e-05', EG='1.66', time_epoch_completed='1791330445.93', return_code='0', job_id='40061658', GAL2='0.99', EG2='1.51', return_code2='0', photon_flux_error2='1.28e-07', ts2='4.12', photon_index='2.48' WHERE bin_id='2212' AND source_name='4FGL J1848.5+3243' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Oct 6 16:47:25 PDT 2026 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 13631.26 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 180 CALLS 1439 TOTAL EDM= .89E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .0000 .65226 .84235E-04 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 norm 110.29 75.382 .38504E-05 -1.5498 3 Prefactor .0000 25.152 .84235E-04 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 norm .0000 2.2772 .84235E-04 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 Prefactor 2.4292 4.2874 .13056E-03 -1.5677 6 Prefactor 14.970 15.352 .10281E-04 -1.5631 7 Prefactor 10.702 12.035 .12186E-04 -1.5643 8 norm .0000 18.444 .84235E-04 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 norm 1.6510 3.9093 .28139E-04 -1.5682 10 norm 1.2617 3.0841 .24558E-04 -1.5685 11 Prefactor .0000 4.4974 .84235E-04 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 15.879 18.482 .10028E-04 -1.5628 13 Prefactor .49960E-09 72.266 .18066E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 14 Normalizat 1.6592 .26840 .49013E-03 -.73398 15 Prefactor .97515 .62272E-01 .14824E-03 -.93563 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.92871e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.25358e-07 2 75.3825 3 1.69882e-05 4 1.80193e-06 5 4.28737 6 15.3523 7 12.0349 8 3.60573e-05 9 3.90928 10 3.08408 11 1.70084e-06 12 18.4821 13 0.000387551 14 0.268633 15 0.0622765 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 13631.2637866 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1848.5+3243 Spectrum: LogParabola 371 norm: 1.262e+00 3.084e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 372 alpha: 2.484e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 373 beta: 1.039e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 374 Eb: 1.215e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 850 Prefactor: 9.751e-01 6.228e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 851 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 852 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 849 Normalization: 1.659e+00 2.686e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 0.30 Ra Dec: 282.146 32.731 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 1.56577802534e-07 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 5.16134435028e-05 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/40061715/likelihoodResults_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 13629.8278931 delta logL = 1.43589351705 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 13629.5438251 delta logL = 1.71996154378 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .49847E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'alpha ' 5.0000 1.0000 .0000 5.0000 3 'Normalizat' 1.5048 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99369 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .8610E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 13629.54 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 95 CALLS 358 TOTAL EDM= .61E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .49809E-01 .33781E-01 .14355E-04** at limit ** 2 alpha 5.0000 .46057 .50000 ** at limit ** 3 Normalizat 1.5050 .27427 .50932E-03 -.78392E-04 4 Prefactor .99361 .63063E-01 .14695E-03 -.33610E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0.049809 alpha = 5 Normalizat = 1.50502 Prefactor = 0.993609 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 13629.54 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 31 CALLS 389 TOTAL EDM= .84E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .49809E-01 .32725E-01 .57421E-06 -1.5703 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 alpha 5.0000 .43387 .50000 1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Normalizat 1.5050 .27490 .20373E-04 -.77637 4 Prefactor .99361 .63117E-01 .29390E-04 -.92943 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.36024e-11 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.0327249 2 2.35458e-05 3 0.27517 4 0.0631219 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 13629.5438204 delta logL = 1.71996617947 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1848.5+3243 Spectrum: LogParabola 371 norm: 4.981e-02 3.272e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 372 alpha: 5.000e+00 2.355e-05 0.000e+00 5.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) 373 beta: 1.039e-01 0.000e+00 -5.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 374 Eb: 1.215e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 850 Prefactor: 9.936e-01 6.312e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 851 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 852 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 849 Normalization: 1.505e+00 2.752e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 4.12 Ra Dec: 282.146 32.731 Photon Index (Free Index): 5.00 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Free Index): 1.96e-07 +/- 1.28e-07 Energy Flux (Free Index): 2.70e-05 +/- 1.77e-05 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/40061715/cmap_HighResolution_812678401_812937601_4FGL_J1848.5+3243_daily_bin2212.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='5.16e-05', comment='SUCCESS', energy_flux2='2.70e-05', dlogl='1.72e+00', photon_flux2='1.96e-07', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-10-06 16:48:47.606374', photon_index_error2='0.00', photon_index2='5.00', ts='0.30', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='0.98', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='1.57e-07', energy_flux_error2='1.77e-05', EG='1.66', time_epoch_completed='1791330527.61', return_code='0', job_id='40061715', GAL2='0.99', EG2='1.51', return_code2='0', photon_flux_error2='1.28e-07', ts2='4.12', photon_index='2.48' WHERE bin_id='2212' AND source_name='4FGL J1848.5+3243' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Oct 6 16:48:47 PDT 2026