********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 11927.35 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 157 CALLS 1050 TOTAL EDM= .75E-07 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor 7.5641 9.3036 .36450E-03 -1.5653 2 Prefactor 7.6367 6.9837 .36266E-03 -1.5653 3 Prefactor 6.9733 10.298 .37954E-03 -1.5655 4 Prefactor .41103 3.2180 .60227E-02 -1.5695 5 Prefactor .24425E-08 11.792 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor 43.616 33.487 .15145E-03 -1.5576 7 Prefactor 25.882 24.015 .19660E-03 -1.5606 8 Prefactor .16653E-09 9.1727 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 norm .55511E-10 2.4588 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 10 norm .55511E-09 22.682 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 11 Normalizat 1.0003 .16868 .75893E-01 -.93019 12 Prefactor .98204 .79417E-01 .46041E-01 -.93331 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 7.49879e-08 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 9.30362 2 6.98366 3 10.2981 4 2.30016 5 0.000339848 6 33.4872 7 24.0152 8 7.70422e-05 9 2.6349e-05 10 0.000222248 11 0.168772 12 0.0794267 number of points = 7465 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207 RA = 252.023, Dec = 22.3523 tmin = 811382401, tmax = 811641601 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='38741612', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2026-09-21 14:15:44.068949', time_epoch_executed='1790025344.07' WHERE source_name='4FGL J1648.0+2221' and cadence='daily' and bin_id='2207' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/38741612 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/38741612/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=811382401.0 && nMetStart<811641601.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=811382401.0 && nMetStart<811641601.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 46 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft1_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=811382401.0 && nMetStart<811641601.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 46 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft1_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits ra=252.023 dec=22.3523 rad=12.0 tmin=811382401.0 tmax=811641601.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 2.37 user 1.82 sys 0.16 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 0.61 user 0.20 sys 0.13 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 1113 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits sctable="SC_DATA" o/sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/pyfits/__init__.py:22: PyFITSDeprecationWarning: PyFITS is deprecated, please use astropy.io.fits PyFITSDeprecationWarning) # noqa Likelihood Analysis Tool Support Contact: Daniel Kocevski (daniel.kocevski@nasa.gov) Importing modules... This is make3FGLxml version 01r0. The default diffuse model files and names are for pass 8 and assume you have v10r00p05 of the Fermi Science Tools or higher. This is make4FGLDR3xml version 01r09. The default diffuse model files and names are for P8R3, 4FGL DRs, and the default fermitools directory locations. WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/matplotlib/cbook/deprecation.py:106: MatplotlibDeprecationWarning: The mpl_toolkits.axes_grid module was deprecated in version 2.1. Use mpl_toolkits.axes_grid1 and mpl_toolkits.axisartist provies the same functionality instead. warnings.warn(message, mplDeprecation, stacklevel=1) WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). L_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/38741536/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits.....................! real 39.27 user 37.38 sys 1.10 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/38741536/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/38741536/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/38741536/expmap_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/38741536/ltcube_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/38741536/Model_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1648.0+2221' 4FGL J1648.0+2221 Spectrum: PowerLaw 305 Prefactor: 1.436e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 306 Index: 2.645e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 307 Scale: 6.242e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/38741536/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/38741536/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/38741536/expmap_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/38741536/ltcube_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/38741536/Model_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11927.3494722 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11927.3468268 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' 7.5598 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' 7.6363 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' 6.9781 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' .35751 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'Prefactor ' .15654E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' 43.602 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' 25.881 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' .68445E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'norm ' .25258E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'norm ' .43854E-08 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Normalizat' 1.0007 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 12 'Prefactor ' .98193 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6560E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 11927.35 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 85 CALLS 893 TOTAL EDM= .34E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.3% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor 7.5641 2.4391 .49989E-06 .35220E-01 2 Prefactor 7.6367 6.9311 -.20641E-05 -.46436E-02 3 Prefactor 6.9733 9.9551 -.47491E-05 .55109E-02 4 Prefactor .41103 15.168 .67763E-05 .70838E-03 5 Prefactor .24425E-08 11.835 -.11343E-05** at limit ** 6 Prefactor 43.616 1.1457 -.87841E-07 .46347E-01 7 Prefactor 25.882 1.0062 .17176E-07 -.58268E-02 8 Prefactor .16653E-09 9.1467 .23995E-05** at limit ** 9 norm .55511E-10 2.4921 .29864E-06** at limit ** 10 norm .55511E-09 22.756 .23855E-05** at limit ** 11 Normalizat 1.0003 .19967 .14808E-04 -.22762E-03 12 Prefactor .98204 .95618E-01 -.31137E-05 -.73420E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 7.56408 Prefactor = 7.6367 Prefactor = 6.97332 Prefactor = 0.411031 Prefactor = 2.44249e-09 Prefactor = 43.6159 Prefactor = 25.8819 Prefactor = 1.66533e-10 norm = 5.55112e-11 norm = 5.55112e-10 Normalizat = 1.00033 Prefactor = 0.982035 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 11927.35 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 157 CALLS 1050 TOTAL EDM= .75E-07 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor 7.5641 9.3036 .36450E-03 -1.5653 2 Prefactor 7.6367 6.9837 .36266E-03 -1.5653 3 Prefactor 6.9733 10.298 .37954E-03 -1.5655 4 Prefactor .41103 3.2180 .60227E-02 -1.5695 5 Prefactor .24425E-08 11.792 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor 43.616 33.487 .15145E-03 -1.5576 7 Prefactor 25.882 24.015 .19660E-03 -1.5606 8 Prefactor .16653E-09 9.1727 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 norm .55511E-10 2.4588 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 10 norm .55511E-09 22.682 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 11 Normalizat 1.0003 .16868 .75893E-01 -.93019 12 Prefactor .98204 .79417E-01 .46041E-01 -.93331 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 7.49879e-08 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 9.30362 2 6.98366 3 10.2981 4 2.30016 5 0.000339848 6 33.4872 7 24.0152 8 7.70422e-05 9 2.6349e-05 10 0.000222248 11 0.168772 12 0.0794267 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11927.3467687 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1648.0+2221 Spectrum: PowerLaw 305 Prefactor: 4.110e-01 2.300e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 306 Index: 2.645e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 307 Scale: 6.242e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 653 Prefactor: 9.820e-01 7.943e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 654 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 655 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 652 Normalization: 1.000e+00 1.688e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 0.01 Ra Dec: 252.023 22.352 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 8.79771510155e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00690356629018 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/38741524/likelihoodResults_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 11927.2204218 delta logL = 0.126346886196 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 11927.1573322 delta logL = 0.189436502842 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .28280 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 4.4436 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .96825 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99084 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6560E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MACHINE ACCURACY LIMITS FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 11927.16 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 92 CALLS 270 TOTAL EDM= .17E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .28236 3.8256 .89566E-05 .33281E-02 2 Index 4.4451 3.9295 .81075E-03 .13994E-04 3 Normalizat .96820 .20244 .34081E-03 .24084E-04 4 Prefactor .99084 .96796E-01 .16431E-03 -.61524E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0.282359 Index = 4.44508 Normalizat = 0.9682 Prefactor = 0.990841 number of points = 7465 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 11927.16 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 23 CALLS 293 TOTAL EDM= .17E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .28236 1.8950 .35827E-06 -1.5697 2 Index 4.4451 2.9753 .32430E-04 -.11121 3 Normalizat .96820 .20266 .13632E-04 -.94103 4 Prefactor .99084 .96853E-01 .32862E-04 -.93035 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.70549e-11 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.46295 2 3.18997 3 0.202817 4 0.0968705 Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207 RA = 252.023, Dec = 22.3523 tmin = 811382401, tmax = 811641601 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='38741636', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2026-09-21 14:16:43.300029', time_epoch_executed='1790025403.3' WHERE source_name='4FGL J1648.0+2221' and cadence='daily' and bin_id='2207' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/38741636 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/38741636/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=811382401.0 && nMetStart<811641601.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=811382401.0 && nMetStart<811641601.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 46 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft1_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=811382401.0 && nMetStart<811641601.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 46 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft1_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits ra=252.023 dec=22.3523 rad=12.0 tmin=811382401.0 tmax=811641601.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 2.39 user 1.88 sys 0.15 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 0.73 user 0.20 sys 0.13 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 1113 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits sctable="SC_DATA" oushell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11927.1573319 delta logL = 0.189436788731 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1648.0+2221 Spectrum: PowerLaw 305 Prefactor: 2.824e-01 1.463e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 306 Index: 4.445e+00 3.190e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 307 Scale: 6.242e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 653 Prefactor: 9.908e-01 9.687e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 654 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 655 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 652 Normalization: 9.682e-01 2.028e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 0.01 Ra Dec: 252.023 22.352 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/38741524/cmap_HighResolution_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='6.90e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='8.80e-08', time_completed='2026-09-21 14:17:16.219154', job_id='38741524', GAL2='0.99', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.97', EG='1.00', time_epoch_completed='1790025436.22', return_code2='0', ts='0.01', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='0.98', dlogl='1.89e-01', ts2='0.41', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.64' WHERE bin_id='2207' AND source_name='4FGL J1648.0+2221' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Mon Sep 21 14:17:16 PDT 2026 utfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741581/ltcube_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/38741581/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits .....................! real 9.45 user 8.80 sys 0.20 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741581/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741581/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/38741581/ltcube_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741581/expmap_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/38741581/ltcube_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits .....................! real 74.44 user 69.43 sys 4.25 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 199 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J1648.0+2221 @ 252.023 22.3523 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741581/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741581/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741581/cmap_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=252.023 yref=22.3523 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.67 user 0.23 sys 0.12 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741581/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741581/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741581/cmap_HighResolution_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=252.023 yref=22.3523 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.66 user 0.24 sys 0.13 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741581/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741581/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/38741581/Model_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding source GADone. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11927.3467687 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1648.0+2221 Spectrum: PowerLaw 305 Prefactor: 4.110e-01 2.300e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 306 Index: 2.645e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 307 Scale: 6.242e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 653 Prefactor: 9.820e-01 7.943e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 654 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 655 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 652 Normalization: 1.000e+00 1.688e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 0.01 Ra Dec: 252.023 22.352 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 8.79771510155e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00690356629018 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/38741536/likelihoodResults_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 11927.2204218 delta logL = 0.126346886196 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 11927.1573322 delta logL = 0.189436502842 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .28280 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 4.4436 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .96825 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99084 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6560E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MACHINE ACCURACY LIMITS FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 11927.16 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 92 CALLS 270 TOTAL EDM= .17E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .28236 3.8256 .89566E-05 .33281E-02 2 Index 4.4451 3.9295 .81075E-03 .13994E-04 3 Normalizat .96820 .20244 .34081E-03 .24084E-04 4 Prefactor .99084 .96796E-01 .16431E-03 -.61524E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0.282359 Index = 4.44508 Normalizat = 0.9682 Prefactor = 0.990841 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 11927.16 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 23 CALLS 293 TOTAL EDM= .17E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .28236 1.8950 .35827E-06 -1.5697 2 Index 4.4451 2.9753 .32430E-04 -.11121 3 Normalizat .96820 .20266 .13632E-04 -.94103 4 Prefactor .99084 .96853E-01 .32862E-04 -.93035 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.70549e-11 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.46295 2 3.18997 3 0.202817 4 0.0968705 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11927.1573319 delta logL = 0.189436788731 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1648.0+2221 Spectrum: PowerLaw 305 Prefactor: 2.824e-01 1.463e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 306 Index: 4.445e+00 3.190e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 307 Scale: 6.242e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 653 Prefactor: 9.908e-01 9.687e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 654 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 655 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 652 Normalization: 9.682e-01 2.028e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 0.01 Ra Dec: 252.023 22.352 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/38741536/cmap_HighResolution_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='6.90e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='8.80e-08', time_completed='2026-09-21 14:17:58.794005', job_id='38741536', GAL2='0.99', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.97', EG='1.00', time_epoch_completed='1790025478.79', return_code2='0', ts='0.01', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='0.98', dlogl='1.89e-01', ts2='0.41', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.64' WHERE bin_id='2207' AND source_name='4FGL J1648.0+2221' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Mon Sep 21 14:17:58 PDT 2026 utfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ltcube_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits .....................! real 9.39 user 8.76 sys 0.22 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ltcube_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/expmap_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ltcube_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits .....................! real 74.36 user 69.20 sys 4.06 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 199 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J1648.0+2221 @ 252.023 22.3523 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/cmap_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=252.023 yref=22.3523 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.61 user 0.23 sys 0.12 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/cmap_HighResolution_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=252.023 yref=22.3523 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.50 user 0.23 sys 0.13 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/Model_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/38741581/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits.....................! real 38.92 user 37.04 sys 1.04 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/38741581/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/38741581/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/38741581/expmap_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/38741581/ltcube_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/38741581/Model_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1648.0+2221' 4FGL J1648.0+2221 Spectrum: PowerLaw 305 Prefactor: 1.436e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 306 Index: 2.645e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 307 Scale: 6.242e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/38741581/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/38741581/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/38741581/expmap_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/38741581/ltcube_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/38741581/Model_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11927.3494722 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11927.3468268 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' 7.5598 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' 7.6363 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' 6.9781 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' .35751 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'Prefactor ' .15654E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' 43.602 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' 25.881 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' .68445E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'norm ' .25258E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'norm ' .43854E-08 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Normalizat' 1.0007 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 12 'Prefactor ' .98193 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6560E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 11927.35 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 85 CALLS 893 TOTAL EDM= .34E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.3% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor 7.5641 2.4391 .49989E-06 .35220E-01 2 Prefactor 7.6367 6.9311 -.20641E-05 -.46436E-02 3 Prefactor 6.9733 9.9551 -.47491E-05 .55109E-02 4 Prefactor .41103 15.168 .67763E-05 .70838E-03 5 Prefactor .24425E-08 11.835 -.11343E-05** at limit ** 6 Prefactor 43.616 1.1457 -.87841E-07 .46347E-01 7 Prefactor 25.882 1.0062 .17176E-07 -.58268E-02 8 Prefactor .16653E-09 9.1467 .23995E-05** at limit ** 9 norm .55511E-10 2.4921 .29864E-06** at limit ** 10 norm .55511E-09 22.756 .23855E-05** at limit ** 11 Normalizat 1.0003 .19967 .14808E-04 -.22762E-03 12 Prefactor .98204 .95618E-01 -.31137E-05 -.73420E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 7.56408 Prefactor = 7.6367 Prefactor = 6.97332 Prefactor = 0.411031 Prefactor = 2.44249e-09 Prefactor = 43.6159 Prefactor = 25.8819 Prefactor = 1.66533e-10 norm = 5.55112e-11 norm = 5.55112e-10 Normalizat = 1.00033 Prefactor = 0.982035 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 11927.35 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 157 CALLS 1050 TOTAL EDM= .75E-07 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor 7.5641 9.3036 .36450E-03 -1.5653 2 Prefactor 7.6367 6.9837 .36266E-03 -1.5653 3 Prefactor 6.9733 10.298 .37954E-03 -1.5655 4 Prefactor .41103 3.2180 .60227E-02 -1.5695 5 Prefactor .24425E-08 11.792 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor 43.616 33.487 .15145E-03 -1.5576 7 Prefactor 25.882 24.015 .19660E-03 -1.5606 8 Prefactor .16653E-09 9.1727 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 norm .55511E-10 2.4588 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 10 norm .55511E-09 22.682 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 11 Normalizat 1.0003 .16868 .75893E-01 -.93019 12 Prefactor .98204 .79417E-01 .46041E-01 -.93331 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 7.49879e-08 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 9.30362 2 6.98366 3 10.2981 4 2.30016 5 0.000339848 6 33.4872 7 24.0152 8 7.70422e-05 9 2.6349e-05 10 0.000222248 11 0.168772 12 0.0794267 tfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ltcube_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits .....................! real 9.92 user 9.09 sys 0.18 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ltcube_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/expmap_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ltcube_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits .....................! real 78.32 user 72.03 sys 4.43 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 199 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J1648.0+2221 @ 252.023 22.3523 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/cmap_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=252.023 yref=22.3523 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.65 user 0.24 sys 0.13 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/cmap_HighResolution_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=252.023 yref=22.3523 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.62 user 0.24 sys 0.12 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/Model_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding source GALDone. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11927.3467687 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1648.0+2221 Spectrum: PowerLaw 305 Prefactor: 4.110e-01 2.300e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 306 Index: 2.645e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 307 Scale: 6.242e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 653 Prefactor: 9.820e-01 7.943e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 654 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 655 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 652 Normalization: 1.000e+00 1.688e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 0.01 Ra Dec: 252.023 22.352 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 8.79771510155e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00690356629018 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/38741581/likelihoodResults_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 11927.2204218 delta logL = 0.126346886196 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 11927.1573322 delta logL = 0.189436502842 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .28280 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 4.4436 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .96825 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99084 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6560E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MACHINE ACCURACY LIMITS FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 11927.16 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 92 CALLS 270 TOTAL EDM= .17E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .28236 3.8256 .89566E-05 .33281E-02 2 Index 4.4451 3.9295 .81075E-03 .13994E-04 3 Normalizat .96820 .20244 .34081E-03 .24084E-04 4 Prefactor .99084 .96796E-01 .16431E-03 -.61524E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0.282359 Index = 4.44508 Normalizat = 0.9682 Prefactor = 0.990841 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 11927.16 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 23 CALLS 293 TOTAL EDM= .17E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .28236 1.8950 .35827E-06 -1.5697 2 Index 4.4451 2.9753 .32430E-04 -.11121 3 Normalizat .96820 .20266 .13632E-04 -.94103 4 Prefactor .99084 .96853E-01 .32862E-04 -.93035 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.70549e-11 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.46295 2 3.18997 3 0.202817 4 0.0968705 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11927.1573319 delta logL = 0.189436788731 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1648.0+2221 Spectrum: PowerLaw 305 Prefactor: 2.824e-01 1.463e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 306 Index: 4.445e+00 3.190e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 307 Scale: 6.242e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 653 Prefactor: 9.908e-01 9.687e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 654 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 655 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 652 Normalization: 9.682e-01 2.028e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 0.01 Ra Dec: 252.023 22.352 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/38741581/cmap_HighResolution_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='6.90e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='8.80e-08', time_completed='2026-09-21 14:19:46.242952', job_id='38741581', GAL2='0.99', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.97', EG='1.00', time_epoch_completed='1790025586.24', return_code2='0', ts='0.01', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='0.98', dlogl='1.89e-01', ts2='0.41', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.64' WHERE bin_id='2207' AND source_name='4FGL J1648.0+2221' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Mon Sep 21 14:19:46 PDT 2026 L_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits.....................! real 39.03 user 37.37 sys 1.04 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/expmap_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ltcube_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/38741612/Model_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1648.0+2221' 4FGL J1648.0+2221 Spectrum: PowerLaw 305 Prefactor: 1.436e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 306 Index: 2.645e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 307 Scale: 6.242e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/38741612/expmap_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/38741612/ltcube_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/38741612/Model_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11927.3494722 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11927.3468268 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' 7.5598 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' 7.6363 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' 6.9781 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' .35751 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'Prefactor ' .15654E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' 43.602 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' 25.881 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' .68445E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'norm ' .25258E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'norm ' .43854E-08 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Normalizat' 1.0007 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 12 'Prefactor ' .98193 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6560E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 11927.35 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 85 CALLS 893 TOTAL EDM= .34E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.3% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor 7.5641 2.4391 .49989E-06 .35220E-01 2 Prefactor 7.6367 6.9311 -.20641E-05 -.46436E-02 3 Prefactor 6.9733 9.9551 -.47491E-05 .55109E-02 4 Prefactor .41103 15.168 .67763E-05 .70838E-03 5 Prefactor .24425E-08 11.835 -.11343E-05** at limit ** 6 Prefactor 43.616 1.1457 -.87841E-07 .46347E-01 7 Prefactor 25.882 1.0062 .17176E-07 -.58268E-02 8 Prefactor .16653E-09 9.1467 .23995E-05** at limit ** 9 norm .55511E-10 2.4921 .29864E-06** at limit ** 10 norm .55511E-09 22.756 .23855E-05** at limit ** 11 Normalizat 1.0003 .19967 .14808E-04 -.22762E-03 12 Prefactor .98204 .95618E-01 -.31137E-05 -.73420E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 7.56408 Prefactor = 7.6367 Prefactor = 6.97332 Prefactor = 0.411031 Prefactor = 2.44249e-09 Prefactor = 43.6159 Prefactor = 25.8819 Prefactor = 1.66533e-10 norm = 5.55112e-11 norm = 5.55112e-10 Normalizat = 1.00033 Prefactor = 0.982035 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 11927.35 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 157 CALLS 1050 TOTAL EDM= .75E-07 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor 7.5641 9.3036 .36450E-03 -1.5653 2 Prefactor 7.6367 6.9837 .36266E-03 -1.5653 3 Prefactor 6.9733 10.298 .37954E-03 -1.5655 4 Prefactor .41103 3.2180 .60227E-02 -1.5695 5 Prefactor .24425E-08 11.792 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor 43.616 33.487 .15145E-03 -1.5576 7 Prefactor 25.882 24.015 .19660E-03 -1.5606 8 Prefactor .16653E-09 9.1727 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 norm .55511E-10 2.4588 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 10 norm .55511E-09 22.682 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 11 Normalizat 1.0003 .16868 .75893E-01 -.93019 12 Prefactor .98204 .79417E-01 .46041E-01 -.93331 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 7.49879e-08 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 9.30362 2 6.98366 3 10.2981 4 2.30016 5 0.000339848 6 33.4872 7 24.0152 8 7.70422e-05 9 2.6349e-05 10 0.000222248 11 0.168772 12 0.0794267 _V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits.....................! real 40.76 user 38.52 sys 1.11 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/expmap_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ltcube_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/38741636/Model_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1648.0+2221' 4FGL J1648.0+2221 Spectrum: PowerLaw 305 Prefactor: 1.436e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 306 Index: 2.645e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 307 Scale: 6.242e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ft2_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/38741636/expmap_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/38741636/ltcube_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/38741636/Model_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11927.3494722 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11927.3468268 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' 7.5598 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' 7.6363 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' 6.9781 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' .35751 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'Prefactor ' .15654E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' 43.602 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' 25.881 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' .68445E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'norm ' .25258E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'norm ' .43854E-08 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Normalizat' 1.0007 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 12 'Prefactor ' .98193 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6560E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 11927.35 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 85 CALLS 893 TOTAL EDM= .34E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.3% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor 7.5641 2.4391 .49989E-06 .35220E-01 2 Prefactor 7.6367 6.9311 -.20641E-05 -.46436E-02 3 Prefactor 6.9733 9.9551 -.47491E-05 .55109E-02 4 Prefactor .41103 15.168 .67763E-05 .70838E-03 5 Prefactor .24425E-08 11.835 -.11343E-05** at limit ** 6 Prefactor 43.616 1.1457 -.87841E-07 .46347E-01 7 Prefactor 25.882 1.0062 .17176E-07 -.58268E-02 8 Prefactor .16653E-09 9.1467 .23995E-05** at limit ** 9 norm .55511E-10 2.4921 .29864E-06** at limit ** 10 norm .55511E-09 22.756 .23855E-05** at limit ** 11 Normalizat 1.0003 .19967 .14808E-04 -.22762E-03 12 Prefactor .98204 .95618E-01 -.31137E-05 -.73420E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 7.56408 Prefactor = 7.6367 Prefactor = 6.97332 Prefactor = 0.411031 Prefactor = 2.44249e-09 Prefactor = 43.6159 Prefactor = 25.8819 Prefactor = 1.66533e-10 norm = 5.55112e-11 norm = 5.55112e-10 Normalizat = 1.00033 Prefactor = 0.982035 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11927.3467687 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1648.0+2221 Spectrum: PowerLaw 305 Prefactor: 4.110e-01 2.300e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 306 Index: 2.645e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 307 Scale: 6.242e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 653 Prefactor: 9.820e-01 7.943e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 654 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 655 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 652 Normalization: 1.000e+00 1.688e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 0.01 Ra Dec: 252.023 22.352 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 8.79771510155e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00690356629018 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/38741612/likelihoodResults_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 11927.2204218 delta logL = 0.126346886196 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 11927.1573322 delta logL = 0.189436502842 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .28280 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 4.4436 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .96825 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99084 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6560E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MACHINE ACCURACY LIMITS FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 11927.16 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 92 CALLS 270 TOTAL EDM= .17E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .28236 3.8256 .89566E-05 .33281E-02 2 Index 4.4451 3.9295 .81075E-03 .13994E-04 3 Normalizat .96820 .20244 .34081E-03 .24084E-04 4 Prefactor .99084 .96796E-01 .16431E-03 -.61524E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0.282359 Index = 4.44508 Normalizat = 0.9682 Prefactor = 0.990841 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 11927.16 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 23 CALLS 293 TOTAL EDM= .17E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .28236 1.8950 .35827E-06 -1.5697 2 Index 4.4451 2.9753 .32430E-04 -.11121 3 Normalizat .96820 .20266 .13632E-04 -.94103 4 Prefactor .99084 .96853E-01 .32862E-04 -.93035 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.70549e-11 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.46295 2 3.18997 3 0.202817 4 0.0968705 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11927.1573319 delta logL = 0.189436788731 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1648.0+2221 Spectrum: PowerLaw 305 Prefactor: 2.824e-01 1.463e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 306 Index: 4.445e+00 3.190e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 307 Scale: 6.242e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 653 Prefactor: 9.908e-01 9.687e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 654 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 655 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 652 Normalization: 9.682e-01 2.028e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 0.01 Ra Dec: 252.023 22.352 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/38741612/cmap_HighResolution_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='6.90e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='8.80e-08', time_completed='2026-09-21 14:21:07.912056', job_id='38741612', GAL2='0.99', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.97', EG='1.00', time_epoch_completed='1790025667.91', return_code2='0', ts='0.01', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='0.98', dlogl='1.89e-01', ts2='0.41', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.64' WHERE bin_id='2207' AND source_name='4FGL J1648.0+2221' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Mon Sep 21 14:21:08 PDT 2026 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 11927.35 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 157 CALLS 1050 TOTAL EDM= .75E-07 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor 7.5641 9.3036 .36450E-03 -1.5653 2 Prefactor 7.6367 6.9837 .36266E-03 -1.5653 3 Prefactor 6.9733 10.298 .37954E-03 -1.5655 4 Prefactor .41103 3.2180 .60227E-02 -1.5695 5 Prefactor .24425E-08 11.792 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor 43.616 33.487 .15145E-03 -1.5576 7 Prefactor 25.882 24.015 .19660E-03 -1.5606 8 Prefactor .16653E-09 9.1727 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 norm .55511E-10 2.4588 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 10 norm .55511E-09 22.682 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 11 Normalizat 1.0003 .16868 .75893E-01 -.93019 12 Prefactor .98204 .79417E-01 .46041E-01 -.93331 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 7.49879e-08 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 9.30362 2 6.98366 3 10.2981 4 2.30016 5 0.000339848 6 33.4872 7 24.0152 8 7.70422e-05 9 2.6349e-05 10 0.000222248 11 0.168772 12 0.0794267 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11927.3467687 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1648.0+2221 Spectrum: PowerLaw 305 Prefactor: 4.110e-01 2.300e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 306 Index: 2.645e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 307 Scale: 6.242e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 653 Prefactor: 9.820e-01 7.943e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 654 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 655 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 652 Normalization: 1.000e+00 1.688e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 0.01 Ra Dec: 252.023 22.352 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 8.79771510155e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00690356629018 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/38741636/likelihoodResults_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 11927.2204218 delta logL = 0.126346886196 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 11927.1573322 delta logL = 0.189436502842 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .28280 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 4.4436 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .96825 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99084 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6560E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MACHINE ACCURACY LIMITS FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 11927.16 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 92 CALLS 270 TOTAL EDM= .17E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .28236 3.8256 .89566E-05 .33281E-02 2 Index 4.4451 3.9295 .81075E-03 .13994E-04 3 Normalizat .96820 .20244 .34081E-03 .24084E-04 4 Prefactor .99084 .96796E-01 .16431E-03 -.61524E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0.282359 Index = 4.44508 Normalizat = 0.9682 Prefactor = 0.990841 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 11927.16 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 23 CALLS 293 TOTAL EDM= .17E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .28236 1.8950 .35827E-06 -1.5697 2 Index 4.4451 2.9753 .32430E-04 -.11121 3 Normalizat .96820 .20266 .13632E-04 -.94103 4 Prefactor .99084 .96853E-01 .32862E-04 -.93035 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.70549e-11 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.46295 2 3.18997 3 0.202817 4 0.0968705 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11927.1573319 delta logL = 0.189436788731 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1648.0+2221 Spectrum: PowerLaw 305 Prefactor: 2.824e-01 1.463e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 306 Index: 4.445e+00 3.190e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 307 Scale: 6.242e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 653 Prefactor: 9.908e-01 9.687e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 654 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 655 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 652 Normalization: 9.682e-01 2.028e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 0.01 Ra Dec: 252.023 22.352 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/38741636/cmap_HighResolution_811382401_811641601_4FGL_J1648.0+2221_daily_bin2207.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='6.90e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='8.80e-08', time_completed='2026-09-21 14:21:59.203692', job_id='38741636', GAL2='0.99', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.97', EG='1.00', time_epoch_completed='1790025719.2', return_code2='0', ts='0.01', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='0.98', dlogl='1.89e-01', ts2='0.41', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.64' WHERE bin_id='2207' AND source_name='4FGL J1648.0+2221' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Mon Sep 21 14:21:59 PDT 2026