********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 6367.839 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 702 CALLS 3721 TOTAL EDM= .85E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .0000 2.6755 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .37159E-05 17.491 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .99620E-06 21.368 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 Prefactor 6.9708 12.265 .37929E-03 -1.5655 5 norm .54899 26.100 .11332E-01 -1.5693 6 Prefactor .96922E-07 59.564 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor 11.085 7.7836 .30138E-03 -1.5641 8 norm .13656E-06 9.3925 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor .94769E-06 66.440 .16670E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 10 Prefactor .16653E-09 3.7548 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 11 Prefactor 22.801 24.678 .21052E-03 -1.5612 12 Prefactor .55511E-10 2.1044 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 13 Prefactor .67865 1.5958 .62403E-03 -1.5691 14 norm .23703E-07 7.9814 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .0000 .47427E-01 .84248E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 norm .40357E-07 5.3733 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor 11.066 13.811 .30033E-03 -1.5641 18 Prefactor .59352E-01 1.6626 .85937E-02 -1.5703 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 19 Prefactor 2.6086 3.3374 .63145E-03 -1.5676 20 norm .95640E-06 14.673 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 21 Prefactor .37286 2.2277 .92808E-03 -1.5696 22 Prefactor 4.1568 2.3306 .49394E-03 -1.5667 23 Prefactor 4.9483 2.9427 .45188E-03 -1.5663 24 Prefactor .0000 2.0745 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 25 Prefactor 8.0614 8.6346 .35299E-03 -1.5651 26 norm 9.0648 2.5877 .33272E-03 -1.5648 27 norm .0000 .45400 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 28 Prefactor .11102E-09 4.8812 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 29 norm .0000 .32963 .24519E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 30 Normalizat 1.0427 .17786 .41100E-01 -.91612 31 Prefactor .77235 .16607 .43353E-01 -1.0076 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.4914e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 4.36413e-06 2 0.016124 3 0.00922764 4 12.2646 5 7.57075 6 0.00480549 7 7.78365 8 0.00226501 9 0.0158704 10 4.70258e-05 11 24.6784 12 2.42386e-05 13 1.59584 14 0.000869733 15 8.16225e-08 16 0.000931655 17 13.8109 18 0.628259 19 3.33741 20 0.00749223 21 1.82277 22 2.33062 23 2.94268 24 1.25186e-05 25 8.63465 26 2.58768 27 5.19942e-07 28 4.44899e-05 29 1.99277e-06 30 0.177966 31 0.16618 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 6367.839 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 702 CALLS 3721 TOTAL EDM= .85E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .0000 2.6755 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .37159E-05 17.491 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .99620E-06 21.368 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 Prefactor 6.9708 12.265 .37929E-03 -1.5655 5 norm .54899 26.100 .11332E-01 -1.5693 6 Prefactor .96922E-07 59.564 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor 11.085 7.7836 .30138E-03 -1.5641 8 norm .13656E-06 9.3925 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor .94769E-06 66.440 .16670E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 10 Prefactor .16653E-09 3.7548 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 11 Prefactor 22.801 24.678 .21052E-03 -1.5612 12 Prefactor .55511E-10 2.1044 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 13 Prefactor .67865 1.5958 .62403E-03 -1.5691 14 norm .23703E-07 7.9814 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .0000 .47427E-01 .84248E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 norm .40357E-07 5.3733 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor 11.066 13.811 .30033E-03 -1.5641 18 Prefactor .59352E-01 1.6626 .85937E-02 -1.5703 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 19 Prefactor 2.6086 3.3374 .63145E-03 -1.5676 20 norm .95640E-06 14.673 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 21 Prefactor .37286 2.2277 .92808E-03 -1.5696 22 Prefactor 4.1568 2.3306 .49394E-03 -1.5667 23 Prefactor 4.9483 2.9427 .45188E-03 -1.5663 24 Prefactor .0000 2.0745 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 25 Prefactor 8.0614 8.6346 .35299E-03 -1.5651 26 norm 9.0648 2.5877 .33272E-03 -1.5648 27 norm .0000 .45400 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 28 Prefactor .11102E-09 4.8812 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 29 norm .0000 .32963 .24519E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 30 Normalizat 1.0427 .17786 .41100E-01 -.91612 31 Prefactor .77235 .16607 .43353E-01 -1.0076 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.4914e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 4.36413e-06 2 0.016124 3 0.00922764 4 12.2646 5 7.57075 6 0.00480549 7 7.78365 8 0.00226501 9 0.0158704 10 4.70258e-05 11 24.6784 12 2.42386e-05 13 1.59584 14 0.000869733 15 8.16225e-08 16 0.000931655 17 13.8109 18 0.628259 19 3.33741 20 0.00749223 21 1.82277 22 2.33062 23 2.94268 24 1.25186e-05 25 8.63465 26 2.58768 27 5.19942e-07 28 4.44899e-05 29 1.99277e-06 30 0.177966 31 0.16618 /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/pyfits/__init__.py:22: PyFITSDeprecationWarning: PyFITS is deprecated, please use astropy.io.fits PyFITSDeprecationWarning) # noqa Likelihood Analysis Tool Support Contact: Daniel Kocevski (daniel.kocevski@nasa.gov) Importing modules... This is make3FGLxml version 01r0. The default diffuse model files and names are for pass 8 and assume you have v10r00p05 of the Fermi Science Tools or higher. This is make4FGLDR3xml version 01r09. The default diffuse model files and names are for P8R3, 4FGL DRs, and the default fermitools directory locations. WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/matplotlib/cbook/deprecation.py:106: MatplotlibDeprecationWarning: The mpl_toolkits.axes_grid module was deprecated in version 2.1. Use mpl_toolkits.axes_grid1 and mpl_toolkits.axisartist provies the same functionality instead. warnings.warn(message, mplDeprecation, stacklevel=1) WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). _V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/39828466/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits.....................! real 23.55 user 21.95 sys 1.14 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/39828466/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/39828466/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/39828466/expmap_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/39828466/ltcube_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/39828466/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1615.6+4712' 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 1.421e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39828466/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39828466/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/39828466/expmap_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/39828466/ltcube_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/39828466/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 6368.02754747 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 6367.84014163 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .10920E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .85167E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' .18108E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' 6.9872 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' 1.6589 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .16452E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' 11.032 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .11955E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' .26005E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' .13394E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' 22.576 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' .23095E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' .67932 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .50822E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' .16653E-09 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'norm ' .11992E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' 11.109 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' .95210E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' 2.6077 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' .52411E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .37198 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' 4.1598 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' 4.9483 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' .29784E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Prefactor ' 8.0568 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 26 'norm ' 9.0609 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 27 'norm ' .47218E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 28 'Prefactor ' .10414E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 29 'norm ' .17973E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 30 'Normalizat' 1.0424 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 31 'Prefactor ' .77209 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 6367.839 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 195 CALLS 3019 TOTAL EDM= .16E-08 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= .8% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .0000 2.6888 .12532E-06** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .37159E-05 5.9745 .45143E-07** at limit ** 3 Prefactor .99620E-06 17.643 -.98477E-07** at limit ** 4 Prefactor 6.9708 7.6781 -.21386E-07 -.67549E-01 5 norm .54899 11.223 -.22886E-06 -.45764E-02 6 Prefactor .96922E-07 57.756 -.51411E-06** at limit ** 7 Prefactor 11.085 7.6711 .21300E-08 .11021E-01 8 norm .13656E-06 6.7066 .23766E-06** at limit ** 9 Prefactor .94769E-06 1.9283 .47605E-07** at limit ** 10 Prefactor .16653E-09 3.7487 .10848E-06** at limit ** 11 Prefactor 22.801 3.9653 .12352E-07 .68899E-01 12 Prefactor .55511E-10 2.1064 .78621E-07** at limit ** 13 Prefactor .67865 1.5698 -.17282E-06 -.68743E-02 14 norm .23703E-07 7.2693 .17183E-06** at limit ** 15 norm .0000 .66009E-01 .33690E-08** at limit ** 16 norm .40357E-07 4.9499 .89334E-07** at limit ** 17 Prefactor 11.066 1.1044 .23281E-09 .10409E-01 18 Prefactor .59352E-01 4.1462 -.22849E-07** at limit ** 19 Prefactor 2.6086 3.3217 -.16036E-07 -.82575E-03 20 norm .95640E-06 11.929 .19674E-06** at limit ** 21 Prefactor .37286 1.5885 .20954E-07 .22489E-02 22 Prefactor 4.1568 1.9905 .18376E-07 .62447E-02 23 Prefactor 4.9483 2.8813 .62390E-07 .35539E-02 24 Prefactor .0000 2.1063 -.38799E-08** at limit ** 25 Prefactor 8.0614 1.7354 -.89432E-08 .64865E-01 26 norm 9.0648 2.5932 -.11367E-07 -.74385E-03 27 norm .0000 .46350 -.44796E-08** at limit ** 28 Prefactor .11102E-09 4.8259 .11757E-06** at limit ** 29 norm .0000 1.9437 -.48240E-07** at limit ** 30 Normalizat 1.0427 .20535 -.14960E-05 -.60149E-04 31 Prefactor .77235 .19603 .13454E-05 -.18140E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0 Prefactor = 3.71586e-06 Prefactor = 9.96203e-07 Prefactor = 6.97076 norm = 0.548991 Prefactor = 9.69225e-08 Prefactor = 11.0849 norm = 1.36557e-07 Prefactor = 9.47686e-07 Prefactor = 1.66533e-10 Prefactor = 22.8008 Prefactor = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 0.678654 norm = 2.37033e-08 norm = 0 norm = 4.03566e-08 Prefactor = 11.0658 Prefactor = 0.0593523 Prefactor = 2.60856 norm = 9.56402e-07 Prefactor = 0.372857 Prefactor = 4.15683 Prefactor = 4.94827 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 8.06143 norm = 9.06484 norm = 0 Prefactor = 1.11022e-10 norm = 0 Normalizat = 1.04274 Prefactor = 0.772354 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 6367.83877859 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 1.665e-10 4.703e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.724e-01 1.662e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.043e+00 1.780e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 5.75044977337e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00437781445562 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/39828430/likelihoodResults_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 6367.83921628 delta logL = -0.000437684953795 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 6367.83877915 delta logL = -5.54384314455e-07 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .14006E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' .90345 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' 1.0427 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .77242 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 6367.839 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 28 CALLS 215 TOTAL EDM= .41E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.5% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 3.5774 -.38606E-07** at limit ** 2 Index 2.3474 2.5006 .41156E-05 .0000 3 Normalizat 1.0427 .19885 -.11860E-05 .58941E-04 4 Prefactor .77235 .19256 -.67301E-06 .29012E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 2.34741 Normalizat = 1.04274 Prefactor = 0.772354 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 6367.839 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 11 CALLS 226 TOTAL EDM= .41E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 3.6372 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index .61589 1.9962 .41156E-05 -.55921 3 Normalizat 1.0427 1.2145 -.11860E-05 -.91612 4 Prefactor .77235 1.1216 -.67301E-06 -1.0076 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 4.1478e-12 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.3296e-05 2 1.90934 3 1.24931 4 1.15748 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 6367.83877859 delta logL = 2.36468622461e-11 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 1.330e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.347e+00 1.909e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.724e-01 1.157e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.043e+00 1.249e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/39828430/cmap_HighResolution_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='4.38e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='5.75e-08', time_completed='2026-10-04 01:01:02.279234', job_id='39828430', GAL2='0.77', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='1.04', EG='1.04', time_epoch_completed='1791100862.28', return_code2='101', ts='-0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='0.77', dlogl='2.36e-11', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2211' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Sun Oct 4 01:01:02 PDT 2026 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 6367.83877859 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 1.665e-10 4.703e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.724e-01 1.662e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.043e+00 1.780e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 5.75044977337e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00437781445562 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/39828420/likelihoodResults_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 6367.83921628 delta logL = -0.000437684953795 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 6367.83877915 delta logL = -5.54384314455e-07 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .14006E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' .90345 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' 1.0427 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .77242 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 6367.839 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 28 CALLS 215 TOTAL EDM= .41E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.5% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 3.5774 -.38606E-07** at limit ** 2 Index 2.3474 2.5006 .41156E-05 .0000 3 Normalizat 1.0427 .19885 -.11860E-05 .58941E-04 4 Prefactor .77235 .19256 -.67301E-06 .29012E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 2.34741 Normalizat = 1.04274 Prefactor = 0.772354 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 6367.839 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 11 CALLS 226 TOTAL EDM= .41E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 3.6372 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index .61589 1.9962 .41156E-05 -.55921 3 Normalizat 1.0427 1.2145 -.11860E-05 -.91612 4 Prefactor .77235 1.1216 -.67301E-06 -1.0076 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 4.1478e-12 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.3296e-05 2 1.90934 3 1.24931 4 1.15748 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 6367.83877859 delta logL = 2.36468622461e-11 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 1.330e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.347e+00 1.909e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.724e-01 1.157e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.043e+00 1.249e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/39828420/cmap_HighResolution_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='4.38e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='5.75e-08', time_completed='2026-10-04 01:01:05.084227', job_id='39828420', GAL2='0.77', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='1.04', EG='1.04', time_epoch_completed='1791100865.08', return_code2='101', ts='-0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='0.77', dlogl='2.36e-11', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2211' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Sun Oct 4 01:01:05 PDT 2026 number of points = 7683 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211 RA = 243.922, Dec = 47.2028 tmin = 812419201, tmax = 812678401 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='39828651', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2026-10-04 01:00:31.865572', time_epoch_executed='1791100831.87' WHERE source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' and cadence='daily' and bin_id='2211' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/39828651 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/39828651/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=812419201.0 && nMetStart<812678401.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=812419201.0 && nMetStart<812678401.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 47 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft1_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=812419201.0 && nMetStart<812678401.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 47 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft1_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits ra=243.922 dec=47.2028 rad=12.0 tmin=812419201.0 tmax=812678401.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 2.80 user 2.28 sys 0.21 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 0.68 user 0.20 sys 0.11 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 577 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits sctable="SC_DATA" ou ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 6367.839 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 702 CALLS 3721 TOTAL EDM= .85E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .0000 2.6755 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .37159E-05 17.491 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .99620E-06 21.368 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 Prefactor 6.9708 12.265 .37929E-03 -1.5655 5 norm .54899 26.100 .11332E-01 -1.5693 6 Prefactor .96922E-07 59.564 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor 11.085 7.7836 .30138E-03 -1.5641 8 norm .13656E-06 9.3925 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor .94769E-06 66.440 .16670E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 10 Prefactor .16653E-09 3.7548 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 11 Prefactor 22.801 24.678 .21052E-03 -1.5612 12 Prefactor .55511E-10 2.1044 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 13 Prefactor .67865 1.5958 .62403E-03 -1.5691 14 norm .23703E-07 7.9814 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .0000 .47427E-01 .84248E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 norm .40357E-07 5.3733 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor 11.066 13.811 .30033E-03 -1.5641 18 Prefactor .59352E-01 1.6626 .85937E-02 -1.5703 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 19 Prefactor 2.6086 3.3374 .63145E-03 -1.5676 20 norm .95640E-06 14.673 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 21 Prefactor .37286 2.2277 .92808E-03 -1.5696 22 Prefactor 4.1568 2.3306 .49394E-03 -1.5667 23 Prefactor 4.9483 2.9427 .45188E-03 -1.5663 24 Prefactor .0000 2.0745 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 25 Prefactor 8.0614 8.6346 .35299E-03 -1.5651 26 norm 9.0648 2.5877 .33272E-03 -1.5648 27 norm .0000 .45400 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 28 Prefactor .11102E-09 4.8812 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 29 norm .0000 .32963 .24519E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 30 Normalizat 1.0427 .17786 .41100E-01 -.91612 31 Prefactor .77235 .16607 .43353E-01 -1.0076 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.4914e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 4.36413e-06 2 0.016124 3 0.00922764 4 12.2646 5 7.57075 6 0.00480549 7 7.78365 8 0.00226501 9 0.0158704 10 4.70258e-05 11 24.6784 12 2.42386e-05 13 1.59584 14 0.000869733 15 8.16225e-08 16 0.000931655 17 13.8109 18 0.628259 19 3.33741 20 0.00749223 21 1.82277 22 2.33062 23 2.94268 24 1.25186e-05 25 8.63465 26 2.58768 27 5.19942e-07 28 4.44899e-05 29 1.99277e-06 30 0.177966 31 0.16618 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 6367.83877859 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 1.665e-10 4.703e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.724e-01 1.662e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.043e+00 1.780e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 5.75044977337e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00437781445562 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/39828466/likelihoodResults_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 6367.83921628 delta logL = -0.000437684953795 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 6367.83877915 delta logL = -5.54384314455e-07 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .14006E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' .90345 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' 1.0427 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .77242 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 6367.839 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 28 CALLS 215 TOTAL EDM= .41E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.5% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 3.5774 -.38606E-07** at limit ** 2 Index 2.3474 2.5006 .41156E-05 .0000 3 Normalizat 1.0427 .19885 -.11860E-05 .58941E-04 4 Prefactor .77235 .19256 -.67301E-06 .29012E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 2.34741 Normalizat = 1.04274 Prefactor = 0.772354 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 6367.839 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 11 CALLS 226 TOTAL EDM= .41E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 3.6372 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index .61589 1.9962 .41156E-05 -.55921 3 Normalizat 1.0427 1.2145 -.11860E-05 -.91612 4 Prefactor .77235 1.1216 -.67301E-06 -1.0076 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 4.1478e-12 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.3296e-05 2 1.90934 3 1.24931 4 1.15748 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 6367.83877859 delta logL = 2.36468622461e-11 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 1.330e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.347e+00 1.909e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.724e-01 1.157e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.043e+00 1.249e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/39828466/cmap_HighResolution_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='4.38e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='5.75e-08', time_completed='2026-10-04 01:02:05.179588', job_id='39828466', GAL2='0.77', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='1.04', EG='1.04', time_epoch_completed='1791100925.18', return_code2='101', ts='-0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='0.77', dlogl='2.36e-11', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2211' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Sun Oct 4 01:02:05 PDT 2026 _V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/39828539/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits.....................! real 21.70 user 20.10 sys 1.01 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/39828539/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/39828539/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/39828539/expmap_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/39828539/ltcube_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/39828539/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1615.6+4712' 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 1.421e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39828539/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39828539/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/39828539/expmap_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/39828539/ltcube_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/39828539/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 6368.02754747 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 6367.84014163 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .10920E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .85167E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' .18108E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' 6.9872 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' 1.6589 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .16452E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' 11.032 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .11955E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' .26005E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' .13394E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' 22.576 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' .23095E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' .67932 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .50822E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' .16653E-09 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'norm ' .11992E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' 11.109 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' .95210E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' 2.6077 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' .52411E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .37198 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' 4.1598 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' 4.9483 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' .29784E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Prefactor ' 8.0568 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 26 'norm ' 9.0609 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 27 'norm ' .47218E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 28 'Prefactor ' .10414E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 29 'norm ' .17973E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 30 'Normalizat' 1.0424 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 31 'Prefactor ' .77209 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 6367.839 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 195 CALLS 3019 TOTAL EDM= .16E-08 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= .8% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .0000 2.6888 .12532E-06** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .37159E-05 5.9745 .45143E-07** at limit ** 3 Prefactor .99620E-06 17.643 -.98477E-07** at limit ** 4 Prefactor 6.9708 7.6781 -.21386E-07 -.67549E-01 5 norm .54899 11.223 -.22886E-06 -.45764E-02 6 Prefactor .96922E-07 57.756 -.51411E-06** at limit ** 7 Prefactor 11.085 7.6711 .21300E-08 .11021E-01 8 norm .13656E-06 6.7066 .23766E-06** at limit ** 9 Prefactor .94769E-06 1.9283 .47605E-07** at limit ** 10 Prefactor .16653E-09 3.7487 .10848E-06** at limit ** 11 Prefactor 22.801 3.9653 .12352E-07 .68899E-01 12 Prefactor .55511E-10 2.1064 .78621E-07** at limit ** 13 Prefactor .67865 1.5698 -.17282E-06 -.68743E-02 14 norm .23703E-07 7.2693 .17183E-06** at limit ** 15 norm .0000 .66009E-01 .33690E-08** at limit ** 16 norm .40357E-07 4.9499 .89334E-07** at limit ** 17 Prefactor 11.066 1.1044 .23281E-09 .10409E-01 18 Prefactor .59352E-01 4.1462 -.22849E-07** at limit ** 19 Prefactor 2.6086 3.3217 -.16036E-07 -.82575E-03 20 norm .95640E-06 11.929 .19674E-06** at limit ** 21 Prefactor .37286 1.5885 .20954E-07 .22489E-02 22 Prefactor 4.1568 1.9905 .18376E-07 .62447E-02 23 Prefactor 4.9483 2.8813 .62390E-07 .35539E-02 24 Prefactor .0000 2.1063 -.38799E-08** at limit ** 25 Prefactor 8.0614 1.7354 -.89432E-08 .64865E-01 26 norm 9.0648 2.5932 -.11367E-07 -.74385E-03 27 norm .0000 .46350 -.44796E-08** at limit ** 28 Prefactor .11102E-09 4.8259 .11757E-06** at limit ** 29 norm .0000 1.9437 -.48240E-07** at limit ** 30 Normalizat 1.0427 .20535 -.14960E-05 -.60149E-04 31 Prefactor .77235 .19603 .13454E-05 -.18140E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0 Prefactor = 3.71586e-06 Prefactor = 9.96203e-07 Prefactor = 6.97076 norm = 0.548991 Prefactor = 9.69225e-08 Prefactor = 11.0849 norm = 1.36557e-07 Prefactor = 9.47686e-07 Prefactor = 1.66533e-10 Prefactor = 22.8008 Prefactor = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 0.678654 norm = 2.37033e-08 norm = 0 norm = 4.03566e-08 Prefactor = 11.0658 Prefactor = 0.0593523 Prefactor = 2.60856 norm = 9.56402e-07 Prefactor = 0.372857 Prefactor = 4.15683 Prefactor = 4.94827 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 8.06143 norm = 9.06484 norm = 0 Prefactor = 1.11022e-10 norm = 0 Normalizat = 1.04274 Prefactor = 0.772354 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 6367.839 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 702 CALLS 3721 TOTAL EDM= .85E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .0000 2.6755 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .37159E-05 17.491 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .99620E-06 21.368 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 Prefactor 6.9708 12.265 .37929E-03 -1.5655 5 norm .54899 26.100 .11332E-01 -1.5693 6 Prefactor .96922E-07 59.564 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor 11.085 7.7836 .30138E-03 -1.5641 8 norm .13656E-06 9.3925 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor .94769E-06 66.440 .16670E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 10 Prefactor .16653E-09 3.7548 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 11 Prefactor 22.801 24.678 .21052E-03 -1.5612 12 Prefactor .55511E-10 2.1044 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 13 Prefactor .67865 1.5958 .62403E-03 -1.5691 14 norm .23703E-07 7.9814 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .0000 .47427E-01 .84248E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 norm .40357E-07 5.3733 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor 11.066 13.811 .30033E-03 -1.5641 18 Prefactor .59352E-01 1.6626 .85937E-02 -1.5703 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 19 Prefactor 2.6086 3.3374 .63145E-03 -1.5676 20 norm .95640E-06 14.673 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 21 Prefactor .37286 2.2277 .92808E-03 -1.5696 22 Prefactor 4.1568 2.3306 .49394E-03 -1.5667 23 Prefactor 4.9483 2.9427 .45188E-03 -1.5663 24 Prefactor .0000 2.0745 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 25 Prefactor 8.0614 8.6346 .35299E-03 -1.5651 26 norm 9.0648 2.5877 .33272E-03 -1.5648 27 norm .0000 .45400 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 28 Prefactor .11102E-09 4.8812 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 29 norm .0000 .32963 .24519E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 30 Normalizat 1.0427 .17786 .41100E-01 -.91612 31 Prefactor .77235 .16607 .43353E-01 -1.0076 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.4914e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 4.36413e-06 2 0.016124 3 0.00922764 4 12.2646 5 7.57075 6 0.00480549 7 7.78365 8 0.00226501 9 0.0158704 10 4.70258e-05 11 24.6784 12 2.42386e-05 13 1.59584 14 0.000869733 15 8.16225e-08 16 0.000931655 17 13.8109 18 0.628259 19 3.33741 20 0.00749223 21 1.82277 22 2.33062 23 2.94268 24 1.25186e-05 25 8.63465 26 2.58768 27 5.19942e-07 28 4.44899e-05 29 1.99277e-06 30 0.177966 31 0.16618 tfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ltcube_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits .....................! real 9.32 user 8.65 sys 0.24 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ltcube_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/expmap_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ltcube_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits .....................! real 75.43 user 70.06 sys 4.27 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 211 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J1615.6+4712 @ 243.922 47.2028 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/cmap_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=243.922 yref=47.2028 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.76 user 0.24 sys 0.13 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/cmap_HighResolution_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=243.922 yref=47.2028 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.72 user 0.23 sys 0.12 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding source GALDone. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 6367.83877859 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 1.665e-10 4.703e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.724e-01 1.662e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.043e+00 1.780e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 5.75044977337e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00437781445562 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/39828539/likelihoodResults_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 6367.83921628 delta logL = -0.000437684953795 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 6367.83877915 delta logL = -5.54384314455e-07 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .14006E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' .90345 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' 1.0427 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .77242 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 6367.839 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 28 CALLS 215 TOTAL EDM= .41E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.5% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 3.5774 -.38606E-07** at limit ** 2 Index 2.3474 2.5006 .41156E-05 .0000 3 Normalizat 1.0427 .19885 -.11860E-05 .58941E-04 4 Prefactor .77235 .19256 -.67301E-06 .29012E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 2.34741 Normalizat = 1.04274 Prefactor = 0.772354 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 6367.839 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 11 CALLS 226 TOTAL EDM= .41E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 3.6372 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index .61589 1.9962 .41156E-05 -.55921 3 Normalizat 1.0427 1.2145 -.11860E-05 -.91612 4 Prefactor .77235 1.1216 -.67301E-06 -1.0076 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 4.1478e-12 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.3296e-05 2 1.90934 3 1.24931 4 1.15748 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 6367.83877859 delta logL = 2.36468622461e-11 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 1.330e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.347e+00 1.909e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.724e-01 1.157e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.043e+00 1.249e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/39828539/cmap_HighResolution_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='4.38e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='5.75e-08', time_completed='2026-10-04 01:03:31.323032', job_id='39828539', GAL2='0.77', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='1.04', EG='1.04', time_epoch_completed='1791101011.32', return_code2='101', ts='-0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='0.77', dlogl='2.36e-11', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2211' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Sun Oct 4 01:03:31 PDT 2026 _V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits.....................! real 23.28 user 21.59 sys 0.96 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/expmap_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ltcube_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/39828651/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1615.6+4712' 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 1.421e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/39828651/expmap_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/39828651/ltcube_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/39828651/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 6368.02754747 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 6367.84014163 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .10920E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .85167E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' .18108E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' 6.9872 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' 1.6589 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .16452E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' 11.032 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .11955E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' .26005E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' .13394E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' 22.576 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' .23095E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' .67932 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .50822E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' .16653E-09 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'norm ' .11992E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' 11.109 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' .95210E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' 2.6077 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' .52411E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .37198 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' 4.1598 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' 4.9483 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' .29784E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Prefactor ' 8.0568 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 26 'norm ' 9.0609 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 27 'norm ' .47218E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 28 'Prefactor ' .10414E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 29 'norm ' .17973E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 30 'Normalizat' 1.0424 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 31 'Prefactor ' .77209 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 6367.839 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 195 CALLS 3019 TOTAL EDM= .16E-08 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= .8% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .0000 2.6888 .12532E-06** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .37159E-05 5.9745 .45143E-07** at limit ** 3 Prefactor .99620E-06 17.643 -.98477E-07** at limit ** 4 Prefactor 6.9708 7.6781 -.21386E-07 -.67549E-01 5 norm .54899 11.223 -.22886E-06 -.45764E-02 6 Prefactor .96922E-07 57.756 -.51411E-06** at limit ** 7 Prefactor 11.085 7.6711 .21300E-08 .11021E-01 8 norm .13656E-06 6.7066 .23766E-06** at limit ** 9 Prefactor .94769E-06 1.9283 .47605E-07** at limit ** 10 Prefactor .16653E-09 3.7487 .10848E-06** at limit ** 11 Prefactor 22.801 3.9653 .12352E-07 .68899E-01 12 Prefactor .55511E-10 2.1064 .78621E-07** at limit ** 13 Prefactor .67865 1.5698 -.17282E-06 -.68743E-02 14 norm .23703E-07 7.2693 .17183E-06** at limit ** 15 norm .0000 .66009E-01 .33690E-08** at limit ** 16 norm .40357E-07 4.9499 .89334E-07** at limit ** 17 Prefactor 11.066 1.1044 .23281E-09 .10409E-01 18 Prefactor .59352E-01 4.1462 -.22849E-07** at limit ** 19 Prefactor 2.6086 3.3217 -.16036E-07 -.82575E-03 20 norm .95640E-06 11.929 .19674E-06** at limit ** 21 Prefactor .37286 1.5885 .20954E-07 .22489E-02 22 Prefactor 4.1568 1.9905 .18376E-07 .62447E-02 23 Prefactor 4.9483 2.8813 .62390E-07 .35539E-02 24 Prefactor .0000 2.1063 -.38799E-08** at limit ** 25 Prefactor 8.0614 1.7354 -.89432E-08 .64865E-01 26 norm 9.0648 2.5932 -.11367E-07 -.74385E-03 27 norm .0000 .46350 -.44796E-08** at limit ** 28 Prefactor .11102E-09 4.8259 .11757E-06** at limit ** 29 norm .0000 1.9437 -.48240E-07** at limit ** 30 Normalizat 1.0427 .20535 -.14960E-05 -.60149E-04 31 Prefactor .77235 .19603 .13454E-05 -.18140E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0 Prefactor = 3.71586e-06 Prefactor = 9.96203e-07 Prefactor = 6.97076 norm = 0.548991 Prefactor = 9.69225e-08 Prefactor = 11.0849 norm = 1.36557e-07 Prefactor = 9.47686e-07 Prefactor = 1.66533e-10 Prefactor = 22.8008 Prefactor = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 0.678654 norm = 2.37033e-08 norm = 0 norm = 4.03566e-08 Prefactor = 11.0658 Prefactor = 0.0593523 Prefactor = 2.60856 norm = 9.56402e-07 Prefactor = 0.372857 Prefactor = 4.15683 Prefactor = 4.94827 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 8.06143 norm = 9.06484 norm = 0 Prefactor = 1.11022e-10 norm = 0 Normalizat = 1.04274 Prefactor = 0.772354 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 6367.839 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 702 CALLS 3721 TOTAL EDM= .85E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .0000 2.6755 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .37159E-05 17.491 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .99620E-06 21.368 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 Prefactor 6.9708 12.265 .37929E-03 -1.5655 5 norm .54899 26.100 .11332E-01 -1.5693 6 Prefactor .96922E-07 59.564 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor 11.085 7.7836 .30138E-03 -1.5641 8 norm .13656E-06 9.3925 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor .94769E-06 66.440 .16670E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 10 Prefactor .16653E-09 3.7548 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 11 Prefactor 22.801 24.678 .21052E-03 -1.5612 12 Prefactor .55511E-10 2.1044 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 13 Prefactor .67865 1.5958 .62403E-03 -1.5691 14 norm .23703E-07 7.9814 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .0000 .47427E-01 .84248E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 norm .40357E-07 5.3733 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor 11.066 13.811 .30033E-03 -1.5641 18 Prefactor .59352E-01 1.6626 .85937E-02 -1.5703 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 19 Prefactor 2.6086 3.3374 .63145E-03 -1.5676 20 norm .95640E-06 14.673 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 21 Prefactor .37286 2.2277 .92808E-03 -1.5696 22 Prefactor 4.1568 2.3306 .49394E-03 -1.5667 23 Prefactor 4.9483 2.9427 .45188E-03 -1.5663 24 Prefactor .0000 2.0745 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 25 Prefactor 8.0614 8.6346 .35299E-03 -1.5651 26 norm 9.0648 2.5877 .33272E-03 -1.5648 27 norm .0000 .45400 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 28 Prefactor .11102E-09 4.8812 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 29 norm .0000 .32963 .24519E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 30 Normalizat 1.0427 .17786 .41100E-01 -.91612 31 Prefactor .77235 .16607 .43353E-01 -1.0076 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.4914e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 4.36413e-06 2 0.016124 3 0.00922764 4 12.2646 5 7.57075 6 0.00480549 7 7.78365 8 0.00226501 9 0.0158704 10 4.70258e-05 11 24.6784 12 2.42386e-05 13 1.59584 14 0.000869733 15 8.16225e-08 16 0.000931655 17 13.8109 18 0.628259 19 3.33741 20 0.00749223 21 1.82277 22 2.33062 23 2.94268 24 1.25186e-05 25 8.63465 26 2.58768 27 5.19942e-07 28 4.44899e-05 29 1.99277e-06 30 0.177966 31 0.16618 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 6367.83877859 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 1.665e-10 4.703e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.724e-01 1.662e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.043e+00 1.780e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 5.75044977337e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00437781445562 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/39828651/likelihoodResults_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 6367.83921628 delta logL = -0.000437684953795 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 6367.83877915 delta logL = -5.54384314455e-07 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .14006E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' .90345 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' 1.0427 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .77242 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 6367.839 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 28 CALLS 215 TOTAL EDM= .41E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.5% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 3.5774 -.38606E-07** at limit ** 2 Index 2.3474 2.5006 .41156E-05 .0000 3 Normalizat 1.0427 .19885 -.11860E-05 .58941E-04 4 Prefactor .77235 .19256 -.67301E-06 .29012E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 2.34741 Normalizat = 1.04274 Prefactor = 0.772354 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 6367.839 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 11 CALLS 226 TOTAL EDM= .41E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 3.6372 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index .61589 1.9962 .41156E-05 -.55921 3 Normalizat 1.0427 1.2145 -.11860E-05 -.91612 4 Prefactor .77235 1.1216 -.67301E-06 -1.0076 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 4.1478e-12 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.3296e-05 2 1.90934 3 1.24931 4 1.15748 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 6367.83877859 delta logL = 2.36468622461e-11 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 1.330e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.347e+00 1.909e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.724e-01 1.157e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.043e+00 1.249e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/39828651/cmap_HighResolution_812419201_812678401_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2211.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='4.38e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='5.75e-08', time_completed='2026-10-04 01:07:08.470514', job_id='39828651', GAL2='0.77', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='1.04', EG='1.04', time_epoch_completed='1791101228.47', return_code2='101', ts='-0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='0.77', dlogl='2.36e-11', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2211' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Sun Oct 4 01:07:08 PDT 2026