00 .10000E+07 28 'Prefactor ' .52826 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 29 'norm ' .70797 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 30 'Normalizat' .94446 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 31 'Prefactor ' 1.0529 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 8224.384 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 217 CALLS 3366 TOTAL EDM= .18E-08 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .11974E-06 9.2694 .13033E-06** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .46629E-08 3.5741 .97624E-08** at limit ** 3 Prefactor 29.024 8.1606 -.44587E-07 -.49889E-01 4 Prefactor .40523E-08 18.457 .21265E-06** at limit ** 5 norm .97145E-08 6.5081 .99621E-07** at limit ** 6 Prefactor .33723E-06 5.2270 -.19193E-06** at limit ** 7 Prefactor .11657E-08 2.4205 -.24129E-07** at limit ** 8 norm .0000 1.9293 -.11328E-08** at limit ** 9 Prefactor 122.36 10.561 -.33870E-07 -.43952 10 Prefactor 5.4924 5.6502 -.37319E-07 .23341E-02 11 Prefactor .97700E-08 13.718 -.27484E-06** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 5.1452 6.6338 .17736E-06 .32114E-02 13 Prefactor .0000 1.7672 -.55323E-08** at limit ** 14 norm .33307E-09 5.7219 -.14210E-06** at limit ** 15 norm .14208E-01 .85141E-01 .66584E-08** at limit ** 16 norm 4.6832 2.8950 .48310E-08 .67136E-02 17 Prefactor .93259E-08 3.6473 -.23271E-07** at limit ** 18 Prefactor 3.6150 3.8176 .29948E-07 .17866E-02 19 Prefactor .0000 2.1998 -.37119E-07** at limit ** 20 norm .48933E-04 380.17 .26990E-05** at limit ** 21 Prefactor .64466 1.2454 -.10101E-07 -.10231E-01 22 Prefactor .64311 1.2504 -.45860E-07 -.11562E-01 23 Prefactor 6.9889 3.4139 .14837E-08 -.51063E-02 24 Prefactor 1.1744 1.5702 -.33555E-07 -.39174E-02 25 Prefactor 2.9035 6.1896 .86478E-07 .52377E-01 26 norm 3.0904 1.5746 .12085E-08 -.32298E-02 27 norm .77981 .63406 -.12032E-08 -.22420E-02 28 Prefactor .52521 3.8576 -.12573E-06 .59017E-02 29 norm .70721 .56758 -.23870E-08 -.36298E-02 30 Normalizat .94467 .19176 .10687E-05 -.16026E-03 31 Prefactor 1.0533 .18540 -.22640E-05 -.26781E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 1.19738e-07 Prefactor = 4.66294e-09 Prefactor = 29.0237 Prefactor = 4.05231e-09 norm = 9.71445e-09 Prefactor = 3.3723e-07 Prefactor = 1.16573e-09 norm = 0 Prefactor = 122.364 Prefactor = 5.49241 Prefactor = 9.76996e-09 Prefactor = 5.14521 Prefactor = 0 norm = 3.33067e-10 norm = 0.0142082 norm = 4.68321 Prefactor = 9.32587e-09 Prefactor = 3.61501 Prefactor = 0 norm = 4.8933e-05 Prefactor = 0.64466 Prefactor = 0.643111 Prefactor = 6.98886 Prefactor = 1.17443 Prefactor = 2.9035 norm = 3.09037 norm = 0.779811 Prefactor = 0.52521 norm = 0.707208 Normalizat = 0.944666 Prefactor = 1.05328 /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/pyfits/__init__.py:22: PyFITSDeprecationWarning: PyFITS is deprecated, please use astropy.io.fits PyFITSDeprecationWarning) # noqa Likelihood Analysis Tool Support Contact: Daniel Kocevski (daniel.kocevski@nasa.gov) Importing modules... This is make3FGLxml version 01r0. The default diffuse model files and names are for pass 8 and assume you have v10r00p05 of the Fermi Science Tools or higher. This is make4FGLDR3xml version 01r09. The default diffuse model files and names are for P8R3, 4FGL DRs, and the default fermitools directory locations. WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/matplotlib/cbook/deprecation.py:106: MatplotlibDeprecationWarning: The mpl_toolkits.axes_grid module was deprecated in version 2.1. Use mpl_toolkits.axes_grid1 and mpl_toolkits.axisartist provies the same functionality instead. warnings.warn(message, mplDeprecation, stacklevel=1) WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). _V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/39004523/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits.....................! real 27.11 user 25.46 sys 0.84 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/39004523/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/39004523/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/39004523/expmap_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/39004523/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/39004523/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1615.6+4712' 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 1.421e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39004523/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39004523/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/39004523/expmap_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/39004523/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/39004523/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38659265 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38875339 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .45293E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .61519E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' 28.851 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' .47024E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .17685E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .34385 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' .57939E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .31759E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 122.01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' 5.6075 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .82678E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 5.1658 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' .12104E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .13797E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' .14336E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'norm ' 4.6530 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' .89045E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 3.6004 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' .14577E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' .68847 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .64017 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' .64496 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' 6.9953 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 1.1728 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Prefactor ' 2.8987 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 26 'norm ' 3.0908 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 27 'norm ' .78036 1.0000 .00 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8224.384 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 702 CALLS 4068 TOTAL EDM= .15E-04 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .11974E-06 2.1170 .42118E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .46629E-08 3.7872 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor 29.024 20.699 .18620E-03 -1.5600 4 Prefactor .40523E-08 21.061 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 norm .97145E-08 6.5405 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .33723E-06 77.618 .96304E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor .11657E-08 2.4195 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 norm .0000 1.9296 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor 122.36 98.446 .90537E-04 -1.5487 10 Prefactor 5.4924 5.7535 .42400E-03 -1.5661 11 Prefactor .97700E-08 14.968 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 5.1452 7.2249 .44207E-03 -1.5663 13 Prefactor .0000 1.7547 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 14 norm .33307E-09 5.7515 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .14208E-01 .53075E-01 .72541E-03 -1.5706 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 norm 4.6832 8.2757 .46632E-03 -1.5665 17 Prefactor .93259E-08 3.8248 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 18 Prefactor 3.6150 3.8451 .53228E-03 -1.5670 19 Prefactor .0000 2.1984 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 norm .48933E-04 26.339 .12900E-01 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 21 Prefactor .64466 1.2625 .65704E-03 -1.5692 22 Prefactor .64311 1.2601 .65294E-03 -1.5692 23 Prefactor 6.9889 3.4524 .37907E-03 -1.5655 24 Prefactor 1.1744 1.6163 .10583E-02 -1.5686 25 Prefactor 2.9035 7.2646 .59659E-03 -1.5674 26 norm 3.0904 1.5825 .57661E-03 -1.5673 27 norm .77981 .64551 .54410E-03 -1.5690 28 Prefactor .52521 2.7971 .75916E-02 -1.5693 29 norm .70721 .58124 .60064E-03 -1.5691 30 Normalizat .94467 .16618 .45467E-01 -.94908 31 Prefactor 1.0533 .15863 .39745E-01 -.90974 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.54612e-05 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00100703 2 0.000265108 3 20.6987 4 0.000582309 5 0.000503739 6 0.0102326 7 0.00010515 8 6.75877e-06 9 98.4472 10 5.7535 11 0.000765702 12 7.22495 13 9.79356e-06 14 9.05571e-05 15 0.0530745 16 8.27574 17 0.000377905 18 3.84515 19 4.12478e-07 20 0.0718014 21 1.2625 22 1.26009 23 3.4524 24 1.61629 25 7.26466 26 1.58249 27 0.645513 28 2.42412 29 0.581241 30 0.166271 31 0.158701 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38427673 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.492e+00 5.753e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.053e+00 1.587e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 9.447e-01 1.663e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.19 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.47e-08 +/- 2.58e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.13e-05 +/- 1.18e-05 TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 8.48287910659e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.006458011502 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/39004440/likelihoodResults_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 8223.55105438 delta logL = 0.833222349054 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509828 delta logL = 0.859178449497 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .66750 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 3.6055 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .86437 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1063 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 8223.525 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 262 TOTAL EDM= .82E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .66692 5.0585 .63387E-03 .13241E-01 2 Index 3.6062 1.7698 .10435 .23336E-03 3 Normalizat .86419 .40047E-01 .44445E-01 .22397E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .39013E-01 .53704E-01 .66112E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0.666921 Index = 3.60618 Normalizat = 0.864194 Prefactor = 1.10654 00 .10000E+07 28 'Prefactor ' .52826 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 29 'norm ' .70797 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 30 'Normalizat' .94446 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 31 'Prefactor ' 1.0529 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 8224.384 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 217 CALLS 3366 TOTAL EDM= .18E-08 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .11974E-06 9.2694 .13033E-06** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .46629E-08 3.5741 .97624E-08** at limit ** 3 Prefactor 29.024 8.1606 -.44587E-07 -.49889E-01 4 Prefactor .40523E-08 18.457 .21265E-06** at limit ** 5 norm .97145E-08 6.5081 .99621E-07** at limit ** 6 Prefactor .33723E-06 5.2270 -.19193E-06** at limit ** 7 Prefactor .11657E-08 2.4205 -.24129E-07** at limit ** 8 norm .0000 1.9293 -.11328E-08** at limit ** 9 Prefactor 122.36 10.561 -.33870E-07 -.43952 10 Prefactor 5.4924 5.6502 -.37319E-07 .23341E-02 11 Prefactor .97700E-08 13.718 -.27484E-06** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 5.1452 6.6338 .17736E-06 .32114E-02 13 Prefactor .0000 1.7672 -.55323E-08** at limit ** 14 norm .33307E-09 5.7219 -.14210E-06** at limit ** 15 norm .14208E-01 .85141E-01 .66584E-08** at limit ** 16 norm 4.6832 2.8950 .48310E-08 .67136E-02 17 Prefactor .93259E-08 3.6473 -.23271E-07** at limit ** 18 Prefactor 3.6150 3.8176 .29948E-07 .17866E-02 19 Prefactor .0000 2.1998 -.37119E-07** at limit ** 20 norm .48933E-04 380.17 .26990E-05** at limit ** 21 Prefactor .64466 1.2454 -.10101E-07 -.10231E-01 22 Prefactor .64311 1.2504 -.45860E-07 -.11562E-01 23 Prefactor 6.9889 3.4139 .14837E-08 -.51063E-02 24 Prefactor 1.1744 1.5702 -.33555E-07 -.39174E-02 25 Prefactor 2.9035 6.1896 .86478E-07 .52377E-01 26 norm 3.0904 1.5746 .12085E-08 -.32298E-02 27 norm .77981 .63406 -.12032E-08 -.22420E-02 28 Prefactor .52521 3.8576 -.12573E-06 .59017E-02 29 norm .70721 .56758 -.23870E-08 -.36298E-02 30 Normalizat .94467 .19176 .10687E-05 -.16026E-03 31 Prefactor 1.0533 .18540 -.22640E-05 -.26781E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 1.19738e-07 Prefactor = 4.66294e-09 Prefactor = 29.0237 Prefactor = 4.05231e-09 norm = 9.71445e-09 Prefactor = 3.3723e-07 Prefactor = 1.16573e-09 norm = 0 Prefactor = 122.364 Prefactor = 5.49241 Prefactor = 9.76996e-09 Prefactor = 5.14521 Prefactor = 0 norm = 3.33067e-10 norm = 0.0142082 norm = 4.68321 Prefactor = 9.32587e-09 Prefactor = 3.61501 Prefactor = 0 norm = 4.8933e-05 Prefactor = 0.64466 Prefactor = 0.643111 Prefactor = 6.98886 Prefactor = 1.17443 Prefactor = 2.9035 norm = 3.09037 norm = 0.779811 Prefactor = 0.52521 norm = 0.707208 Normalizat = 0.944666 Prefactor = 1.05328 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8223.525 FROM HESSE STATUS=NOT POSDEF 33 CALLS 295 TOTAL EDM= .76E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .66692 11.616 .43259E-05 -1.5692 2 Index 3.6062 3.2744 .36264E-02 -.28251 3 Normalizat .86419 .18910 .26663E-03 -.97730 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .17792 .23744E-03 -.89258 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 2 estimated distance: 7.61749e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 5.56673 2 3.60308 3 0.189243 4 0.178011 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509731 delta logL = 0.859179422505 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 6.669e-01 5.567e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 3.606e+00 3.603e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.107e+00 1.780e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 8.642e-01 1.892e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.62 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Free Index): 3.61 +/- 3.60 Photon Flux (Free Index): 7.98e-08 +/- 7.00e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.29e-05 +/- 8.47e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/39004440/cmap_HighResolution_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='6.46e-03', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.47e-08', energy_flux2='1.29e-05', photon_flux_error='2.58e-08', dlogl='8.59e-01', energy_flux='1.13e-05', photon_flux2='7.98e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-09-24 13:08:41.877757', photon_index_error2='3.60', photon_index2='3.61', ts='1.71', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.05', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='8.48e-08', energy_flux_error2='8.47e-06', EG='0.94', time_epoch_completed='1790280521.88', return_code='0', job_id='39004440', GAL2='1.11', EG2='0.86', return_code2='102', energy_flux_error='1.18e-05', photon_flux_error2='7.00e-08', ts2='3.62', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2208' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Thu Sep 24 13:08:42 PDT 2026 number of points = 7621 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208 RA = 243.922, Dec = 47.2028 tmin = 811641601, tmax = 811900801 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='39004881', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2026-09-24 13:08:04.005114', time_epoch_executed='1790280484.01' WHERE source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' and cadence='daily' and bin_id='2208' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/39004881 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/39004881/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=811641601.0 && nMetStart<811900801.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=811641601.0 && nMetStart<811900801.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 48 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft1_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=811641601.0 && nMetStart<811900801.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 48 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft1_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits ra=243.922 dec=47.2028 rad=12.0 tmin=811641601.0 tmax=811900801.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 3.12 user 2.37 sys 0.17 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 0.49 user 0.18 sys 0.13 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 762 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits sctable="SC_DATA" ou ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8224.384 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 702 CALLS 4068 TOTAL EDM= .15E-04 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .11974E-06 2.1170 .42118E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .46629E-08 3.7872 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor 29.024 20.699 .18620E-03 -1.5600 4 Prefactor .40523E-08 21.061 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 norm .97145E-08 6.5405 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .33723E-06 77.618 .96304E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor .11657E-08 2.4195 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 norm .0000 1.9296 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor 122.36 98.446 .90537E-04 -1.5487 10 Prefactor 5.4924 5.7535 .42400E-03 -1.5661 11 Prefactor .97700E-08 14.968 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 5.1452 7.2249 .44207E-03 -1.5663 13 Prefactor .0000 1.7547 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 14 norm .33307E-09 5.7515 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .14208E-01 .53075E-01 .72541E-03 -1.5706 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 norm 4.6832 8.2757 .46632E-03 -1.5665 17 Prefactor .93259E-08 3.8248 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 18 Prefactor 3.6150 3.8451 .53228E-03 -1.5670 19 Prefactor .0000 2.1984 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 norm .48933E-04 26.339 .12900E-01 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 21 Prefactor .64466 1.2625 .65704E-03 -1.5692 22 Prefactor .64311 1.2601 .65294E-03 -1.5692 23 Prefactor 6.9889 3.4524 .37907E-03 -1.5655 24 Prefactor 1.1744 1.6163 .10583E-02 -1.5686 25 Prefactor 2.9035 7.2646 .59659E-03 -1.5674 26 norm 3.0904 1.5825 .57661E-03 -1.5673 27 norm .77981 .64551 .54410E-03 -1.5690 28 Prefactor .52521 2.7971 .75916E-02 -1.5693 29 norm .70721 .58124 .60064E-03 -1.5691 30 Normalizat .94467 .16618 .45467E-01 -.94908 31 Prefactor 1.0533 .15863 .39745E-01 -.90974 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.54612e-05 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00100703 2 0.000265108 3 20.6987 4 0.000582309 5 0.000503739 6 0.0102326 7 0.00010515 8 6.75877e-06 9 98.4472 10 5.7535 11 0.000765702 12 7.22495 13 9.79356e-06 14 9.05571e-05 15 0.0530745 16 8.27574 17 0.000377905 18 3.84515 19 4.12478e-07 20 0.0718014 21 1.2625 22 1.26009 23 3.4524 24 1.61629 25 7.26466 26 1.58249 27 0.645513 28 2.42412 29 0.581241 30 0.166271 31 0.158701 _V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/39004563/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits.....................! real 26.33 user 24.47 sys 1.09 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/39004563/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/39004563/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/39004563/expmap_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/39004563/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/39004563/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1615.6+4712' 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 1.421e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39004563/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39004563/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/39004563/expmap_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/39004563/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/39004563/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38659265 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38875339 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .45293E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .61519E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' 28.851 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' .47024E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .17685E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .34385 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' .57939E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .31759E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 122.01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' 5.6075 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .82678E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 5.1658 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' .12104E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .13797E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' .14336E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'norm ' 4.6530 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' .89045E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 3.6004 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' .14577E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' .68847 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .64017 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' .64496 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' 6.9953 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 1.1728 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Prefactor ' 2.8987 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 26 'norm ' 3.0908 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 27 'norm ' .78036 1.0000 .00_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/39004555/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits.....................! real 27.06 user 25.16 sys 1.16 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/39004555/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/39004555/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/39004555/expmap_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/39004555/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/39004555/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1615.6+4712' 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 1.421e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39004555/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39004555/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/39004555/expmap_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/39004555/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/39004555/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38659265 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38875339 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .45293E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .61519E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' 28.851 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' .47024E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .17685E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .34385 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' .57939E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .31759E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 122.01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' 5.6075 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .82678E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 5.1658 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' .12104E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .13797E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' .14336E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'norm ' 4.6530 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' .89045E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 3.6004 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' .14577E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' .68847 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .64017 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' .64496 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' 6.9953 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 1.1728 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Prefactor ' 2.8987 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 26 'norm ' 3.0908 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 27 'norm ' .78036 1.0000 .00number of points = 7621 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208 RA = 243.922, Dec = 47.2028 tmin = 811641601, tmax = 811900801 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='39004896', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2026-09-24 13:08:21.508645', time_epoch_executed='1790280501.51' WHERE source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' and cadence='daily' and bin_id='2208' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/39004896 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/39004896/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=811641601.0 && nMetStart<811900801.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=811641601.0 && nMetStart<811900801.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 48 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft1_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=811641601.0 && nMetStart<811900801.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 48 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft1_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits ra=243.922 dec=47.2028 rad=12.0 tmin=811641601.0 tmax=811900801.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 2.90 user 2.42 sys 0.16 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 0.69 user 0.21 sys 0.13 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 762 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits sctable="SC_DATA" ou00 .10000E+07 28 'Prefactor ' .52826 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 29 'norm ' .70797 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 30 'Normalizat' .94446 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 31 'Prefactor ' 1.0529 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 8224.384 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 217 CALLS 3366 TOTAL EDM= .18E-08 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .11974E-06 9.2694 .13033E-06** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .46629E-08 3.5741 .97624E-08** at limit ** 3 Prefactor 29.024 8.1606 -.44587E-07 -.49889E-01 4 Prefactor .40523E-08 18.457 .21265E-06** at limit ** 5 norm .97145E-08 6.5081 .99621E-07** at limit ** 6 Prefactor .33723E-06 5.2270 -.19193E-06** at limit ** 7 Prefactor .11657E-08 2.4205 -.24129E-07** at limit ** 8 norm .0000 1.9293 -.11328E-08** at limit ** 9 Prefactor 122.36 10.561 -.33870E-07 -.43952 10 Prefactor 5.4924 5.6502 -.37319E-07 .23341E-02 11 Prefactor .97700E-08 13.718 -.27484E-06** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 5.1452 6.6338 .17736E-06 .32114E-02 13 Prefactor .0000 1.7672 -.55323E-08** at limit ** 14 norm .33307E-09 5.7219 -.14210E-06** at limit ** 15 norm .14208E-01 .85141E-01 .66584E-08** at limit ** 16 norm 4.6832 2.8950 .48310E-08 .67136E-02 17 Prefactor .93259E-08 3.6473 -.23271E-07** at limit ** 18 Prefactor 3.6150 3.8176 .29948E-07 .17866E-02 19 Prefactor .0000 2.1998 -.37119E-07** at limit ** 20 norm .48933E-04 380.17 .26990E-05** at limit ** 21 Prefactor .64466 1.2454 -.10101E-07 -.10231E-01 22 Prefactor .64311 1.2504 -.45860E-07 -.11562E-01 23 Prefactor 6.9889 3.4139 .14837E-08 -.51063E-02 24 Prefactor 1.1744 1.5702 -.33555E-07 -.39174E-02 25 Prefactor 2.9035 6.1896 .86478E-07 .52377E-01 26 norm 3.0904 1.5746 .12085E-08 -.32298E-02 27 norm .77981 .63406 -.12032E-08 -.22420E-02 28 Prefactor .52521 3.8576 -.12573E-06 .59017E-02 29 norm .70721 .56758 -.23870E-08 -.36298E-02 30 Normalizat .94467 .19176 .10687E-05 -.16026E-03 31 Prefactor 1.0533 .18540 -.22640E-05 -.26781E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 1.19738e-07 Prefactor = 4.66294e-09 Prefactor = 29.0237 Prefactor = 4.05231e-09 norm = 9.71445e-09 Prefactor = 3.3723e-07 Prefactor = 1.16573e-09 norm = 0 Prefactor = 122.364 Prefactor = 5.49241 Prefactor = 9.76996e-09 Prefactor = 5.14521 Prefactor = 0 norm = 3.33067e-10 norm = 0.0142082 norm = 4.68321 Prefactor = 9.32587e-09 Prefactor = 3.61501 Prefactor = 0 norm = 4.8933e-05 Prefactor = 0.64466 Prefactor = 0.643111 Prefactor = 6.98886 Prefactor = 1.17443 Prefactor = 2.9035 norm = 3.09037 norm = 0.779811 Prefactor = 0.52521 norm = 0.707208 Normalizat = 0.944666 Prefactor = 1.05328 00 .10000E+07 28 'Prefactor ' .52826 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 29 'norm ' .70797 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 30 'Normalizat' .94446 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 31 'Prefactor ' 1.0529 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 8224.384 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 217 CALLS 3366 TOTAL EDM= .18E-08 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .11974E-06 9.2694 .13033E-06** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .46629E-08 3.5741 .97624E-08** at limit ** 3 Prefactor 29.024 8.1606 -.44587E-07 -.49889E-01 4 Prefactor .40523E-08 18.457 .21265E-06** at limit ** 5 norm .97145E-08 6.5081 .99621E-07** at limit ** 6 Prefactor .33723E-06 5.2270 -.19193E-06** at limit ** 7 Prefactor .11657E-08 2.4205 -.24129E-07** at limit ** 8 norm .0000 1.9293 -.11328E-08** at limit ** 9 Prefactor 122.36 10.561 -.33870E-07 -.43952 10 Prefactor 5.4924 5.6502 -.37319E-07 .23341E-02 11 Prefactor .97700E-08 13.718 -.27484E-06** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 5.1452 6.6338 .17736E-06 .32114E-02 13 Prefactor .0000 1.7672 -.55323E-08** at limit ** 14 norm .33307E-09 5.7219 -.14210E-06** at limit ** 15 norm .14208E-01 .85141E-01 .66584E-08** at limit ** 16 norm 4.6832 2.8950 .48310E-08 .67136E-02 17 Prefactor .93259E-08 3.6473 -.23271E-07** at limit ** 18 Prefactor 3.6150 3.8176 .29948E-07 .17866E-02 19 Prefactor .0000 2.1998 -.37119E-07** at limit ** 20 norm .48933E-04 380.17 .26990E-05** at limit ** 21 Prefactor .64466 1.2454 -.10101E-07 -.10231E-01 22 Prefactor .64311 1.2504 -.45860E-07 -.11562E-01 23 Prefactor 6.9889 3.4139 .14837E-08 -.51063E-02 24 Prefactor 1.1744 1.5702 -.33555E-07 -.39174E-02 25 Prefactor 2.9035 6.1896 .86478E-07 .52377E-01 26 norm 3.0904 1.5746 .12085E-08 -.32298E-02 27 norm .77981 .63406 -.12032E-08 -.22420E-02 28 Prefactor .52521 3.8576 -.12573E-06 .59017E-02 29 norm .70721 .56758 -.23870E-08 -.36298E-02 30 Normalizat .94467 .19176 .10687E-05 -.16026E-03 31 Prefactor 1.0533 .18540 -.22640E-05 -.26781E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 1.19738e-07 Prefactor = 4.66294e-09 Prefactor = 29.0237 Prefactor = 4.05231e-09 norm = 9.71445e-09 Prefactor = 3.3723e-07 Prefactor = 1.16573e-09 norm = 0 Prefactor = 122.364 Prefactor = 5.49241 Prefactor = 9.76996e-09 Prefactor = 5.14521 Prefactor = 0 norm = 3.33067e-10 norm = 0.0142082 norm = 4.68321 Prefactor = 9.32587e-09 Prefactor = 3.61501 Prefactor = 0 norm = 4.8933e-05 Prefactor = 0.64466 Prefactor = 0.643111 Prefactor = 6.98886 Prefactor = 1.17443 Prefactor = 2.9035 norm = 3.09037 norm = 0.779811 Prefactor = 0.52521 norm = 0.707208 Normalizat = 0.944666 Prefactor = 1.05328 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8224.384 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 702 CALLS 4068 TOTAL EDM= .15E-04 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .11974E-06 2.1170 .42118E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .46629E-08 3.7872 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor 29.024 20.699 .18620E-03 -1.5600 4 Prefactor .40523E-08 21.061 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 norm .97145E-08 6.5405 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .33723E-06 77.618 .96304E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor .11657E-08 2.4195 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 norm .0000 1.9296 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor 122.36 98.446 .90537E-04 -1.5487 10 Prefactor 5.4924 5.7535 .42400E-03 -1.5661 11 Prefactor .97700E-08 14.968 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 5.1452 7.2249 .44207E-03 -1.5663 13 Prefactor .0000 1.7547 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 14 norm .33307E-09 5.7515 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .14208E-01 .53075E-01 .72541E-03 -1.5706 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 norm 4.6832 8.2757 .46632E-03 -1.5665 17 Prefactor .93259E-08 3.8248 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 18 Prefactor 3.6150 3.8451 .53228E-03 -1.5670 19 Prefactor .0000 2.1984 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 norm .48933E-04 26.339 .12900E-01 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 21 Prefactor .64466 1.2625 .65704E-03 -1.5692 22 Prefactor .64311 1.2601 .65294E-03 -1.5692 23 Prefactor 6.9889 3.4524 .37907E-03 -1.5655 24 Prefactor 1.1744 1.6163 .10583E-02 -1.5686 25 Prefactor 2.9035 7.2646 .59659E-03 -1.5674 26 norm 3.0904 1.5825 .57661E-03 -1.5673 27 norm .77981 .64551 .54410E-03 -1.5690 28 Prefactor .52521 2.7971 .75916E-02 -1.5693 29 norm .70721 .58124 .60064E-03 -1.5691 30 Normalizat .94467 .16618 .45467E-01 -.94908 31 Prefactor 1.0533 .15863 .39745E-01 -.90974 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.54612e-05 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00100703 2 0.000265108 3 20.6987 4 0.000582309 5 0.000503739 6 0.0102326 7 0.00010515 8 6.75877e-06 9 98.4472 10 5.7535 11 0.000765702 12 7.22495 13 9.79356e-06 14 9.05571e-05 15 0.0530745 16 8.27574 17 0.000377905 18 3.84515 19 4.12478e-07 20 0.0718014 21 1.2625 22 1.26009 23 3.4524 24 1.61629 25 7.26466 26 1.58249 27 0.645513 28 2.42412 29 0.581241 30 0.166271 31 0.158701 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38427673 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.492e+00 5.753e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.053e+00 1.587e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 9.447e-01 1.663e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.19 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.47e-08 +/- 2.58e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.13e-05 +/- 1.18e-05 TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 8.48287910659e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.006458011502 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/39004508/likelihoodResults_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 8223.55105438 delta logL = 0.833222349054 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509828 delta logL = 0.859178449497 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .66750 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 3.6055 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .86437 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1063 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 8223.525 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 262 TOTAL EDM= .82E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .66692 5.0585 .63387E-03 .13241E-01 2 Index 3.6062 1.7698 .10435 .23336E-03 3 Normalizat .86419 .40047E-01 .44445E-01 .22397E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .39013E-01 .53704E-01 .66112E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0.666921 Index = 3.60618 Normalizat = 0.864194 Prefactor = 1.10654 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8223.525 FROM HESSE STATUS=NOT POSDEF 33 CALLS 295 TOTAL EDM= .76E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .66692 11.616 .43259E-05 -1.5692 2 Index 3.6062 3.2744 .36264E-02 -.28251 3 Normalizat .86419 .18910 .26663E-03 -.97730 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .17792 .23744E-03 -.89258 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 2 estimated distance: 7.61749e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 5.56673 2 3.60308 3 0.189243 4 0.178011 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509731 delta logL = 0.859179422505 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 6.669e-01 5.567e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 3.606e+00 3.603e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.107e+00 1.780e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 8.642e-01 1.892e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.62 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Free Index): 3.61 +/- 3.60 Photon Flux (Free Index): 7.98e-08 +/- 7.00e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.29e-05 +/- 8.47e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/39004508/cmap_HighResolution_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='6.46e-03', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.47e-08', energy_flux2='1.29e-05', photon_flux_error='2.58e-08', dlogl='8.59e-01', energy_flux='1.13e-05', photon_flux2='7.98e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-09-24 13:09:39.479126', photon_index_error2='3.60', photon_index2='3.61', ts='1.71', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.05', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='8.48e-08', energy_flux_error2='8.47e-06', EG='0.94', time_epoch_completed='1790280579.48', return_code='0', job_id='39004508', GAL2='1.11', EG2='0.86', return_code2='102', energy_flux_error='1.18e-05', photon_flux_error2='7.00e-08', ts2='3.62', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2208' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Thu Sep 24 13:09:39 PDT 2026 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38427673 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.492e+00 5.753e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.053e+00 1.587e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 9.447e-01 1.663e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.19 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.47e-08 +/- 2.58e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.13e-05 +/- 1.18e-05 TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 8.48287910659e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.006458011502 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/39004500/likelihoodResults_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 8223.55105438 delta logL = 0.833222349054 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509828 delta logL = 0.859178449497 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .66750 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 3.6055 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .86437 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1063 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 8223.525 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 262 TOTAL EDM= .82E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .66692 5.0585 .63387E-03 .13241E-01 2 Index 3.6062 1.7698 .10435 .23336E-03 3 Normalizat .86419 .40047E-01 .44445E-01 .22397E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .39013E-01 .53704E-01 .66112E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0.666921 Index = 3.60618 Normalizat = 0.864194 Prefactor = 1.10654 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8224.384 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 702 CALLS 4068 TOTAL EDM= .15E-04 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .11974E-06 2.1170 .42118E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .46629E-08 3.7872 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor 29.024 20.699 .18620E-03 -1.5600 4 Prefactor .40523E-08 21.061 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 norm .97145E-08 6.5405 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .33723E-06 77.618 .96304E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor .11657E-08 2.4195 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 norm .0000 1.9296 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor 122.36 98.446 .90537E-04 -1.5487 10 Prefactor 5.4924 5.7535 .42400E-03 -1.5661 11 Prefactor .97700E-08 14.968 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 5.1452 7.2249 .44207E-03 -1.5663 13 Prefactor .0000 1.7547 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 14 norm .33307E-09 5.7515 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .14208E-01 .53075E-01 .72541E-03 -1.5706 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 norm 4.6832 8.2757 .46632E-03 -1.5665 17 Prefactor .93259E-08 3.8248 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 18 Prefactor 3.6150 3.8451 .53228E-03 -1.5670 19 Prefactor .0000 2.1984 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 norm .48933E-04 26.339 .12900E-01 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 21 Prefactor .64466 1.2625 .65704E-03 -1.5692 22 Prefactor .64311 1.2601 .65294E-03 -1.5692 23 Prefactor 6.9889 3.4524 .37907E-03 -1.5655 24 Prefactor 1.1744 1.6163 .10583E-02 -1.5686 25 Prefactor 2.9035 7.2646 .59659E-03 -1.5674 26 norm 3.0904 1.5825 .57661E-03 -1.5673 27 norm .77981 .64551 .54410E-03 -1.5690 28 Prefactor .52521 2.7971 .75916E-02 -1.5693 29 norm .70721 .58124 .60064E-03 -1.5691 30 Normalizat .94467 .16618 .45467E-01 -.94908 31 Prefactor 1.0533 .15863 .39745E-01 -.90974 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.54612e-05 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00100703 2 0.000265108 3 20.6987 4 0.000582309 5 0.000503739 6 0.0102326 7 0.00010515 8 6.75877e-06 9 98.4472 10 5.7535 11 0.000765702 12 7.22495 13 9.79356e-06 14 9.05571e-05 15 0.0530745 16 8.27574 17 0.000377905 18 3.84515 19 4.12478e-07 20 0.0718014 21 1.2625 22 1.26009 23 3.4524 24 1.61629 25 7.26466 26 1.58249 27 0.645513 28 2.42412 29 0.581241 30 0.166271 31 0.158701 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8223.525 FROM HESSE STATUS=NOT POSDEF 33 CALLS 295 TOTAL EDM= .76E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .66692 11.616 .43259E-05 -1.5692 2 Index 3.6062 3.2744 .36264E-02 -.28251 3 Normalizat .86419 .18910 .26663E-03 -.97730 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .17792 .23744E-03 -.89258 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 2 estimated distance: 7.61749e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 5.56673 2 3.60308 3 0.189243 4 0.178011 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509731 delta logL = 0.859179422505 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 6.669e-01 5.567e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 3.606e+00 3.603e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.107e+00 1.780e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 8.642e-01 1.892e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.62 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Free Index): 3.61 +/- 3.60 Photon Flux (Free Index): 7.98e-08 +/- 7.00e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.29e-05 +/- 8.47e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/39004500/cmap_HighResolution_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='6.46e-03', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.47e-08', energy_flux2='1.29e-05', photon_flux_error='2.58e-08', dlogl='8.59e-01', energy_flux='1.13e-05', photon_flux2='7.98e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-09-24 13:09:56.909734', photon_index_error2='3.60', photon_index2='3.61', ts='1.71', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.05', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='8.48e-08', energy_flux_error2='8.47e-06', EG='0.94', time_epoch_completed='1790280596.91', return_code='0', job_id='39004500', GAL2='1.11', EG2='0.86', return_code2='102', energy_flux_error='1.18e-05', photon_flux_error2='7.00e-08', ts2='3.62', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2208' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Thu Sep 24 13:09:56 PDT 2026 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8224.384 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 702 CALLS 4068 TOTAL EDM= .15E-04 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .11974E-06 2.1170 .42118E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .46629E-08 3.7872 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor 29.024 20.699 .18620E-03 -1.5600 4 Prefactor .40523E-08 21.061 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 norm .97145E-08 6.5405 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .33723E-06 77.618 .96304E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor .11657E-08 2.4195 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 norm .0000 1.9296 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor 122.36 98.446 .90537E-04 -1.5487 10 Prefactor 5.4924 5.7535 .42400E-03 -1.5661 11 Prefactor .97700E-08 14.968 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 5.1452 7.2249 .44207E-03 -1.5663 13 Prefactor .0000 1.7547 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 14 norm .33307E-09 5.7515 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .14208E-01 .53075E-01 .72541E-03 -1.5706 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 norm 4.6832 8.2757 .46632E-03 -1.5665 17 Prefactor .93259E-08 3.8248 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 18 Prefactor 3.6150 3.8451 .53228E-03 -1.5670 19 Prefactor .0000 2.1984 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 norm .48933E-04 26.339 .12900E-01 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 21 Prefactor .64466 1.2625 .65704E-03 -1.5692 22 Prefactor .64311 1.2601 .65294E-03 -1.5692 23 Prefactor 6.9889 3.4524 .37907E-03 -1.5655 24 Prefactor 1.1744 1.6163 .10583E-02 -1.5686 25 Prefactor 2.9035 7.2646 .59659E-03 -1.5674 26 norm 3.0904 1.5825 .57661E-03 -1.5673 27 norm .77981 .64551 .54410E-03 -1.5690 28 Prefactor .52521 2.7971 .75916E-02 -1.5693 29 norm .70721 .58124 .60064E-03 -1.5691 30 Normalizat .94467 .16618 .45467E-01 -.94908 31 Prefactor 1.0533 .15863 .39745E-01 -.90974 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.54612e-05 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00100703 2 0.000265108 3 20.6987 4 0.000582309 5 0.000503739 6 0.0102326 7 0.00010515 8 6.75877e-06 9 98.4472 10 5.7535 11 0.000765702 12 7.22495 13 9.79356e-06 14 9.05571e-05 15 0.0530745 16 8.27574 17 0.000377905 18 3.84515 19 4.12478e-07 20 0.0718014 21 1.2625 22 1.26009 23 3.4524 24 1.61629 25 7.26466 26 1.58249 27 0.645513 28 2.42412 29 0.581241 30 0.166271 31 0.158701 _V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/39004636/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits.....................! real 26.06 user 25.04 sys 0.59 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/39004636/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/39004636/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/39004636/expmap_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/39004636/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/39004636/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1615.6+4712' 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 1.421e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39004636/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39004636/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/39004636/expmap_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/39004636/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/39004636/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38659265 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38875339 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .45293E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .61519E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' 28.851 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' .47024E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .17685E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .34385 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' .57939E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .31759E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 122.01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' 5.6075 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .82678E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 5.1658 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' .12104E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .13797E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' .14336E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'norm ' 4.6530 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' .89045E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 3.6004 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' .14577E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' .68847 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .64017 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' .64496 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' 6.9953 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 1.1728 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Prefactor ' 2.8987 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 26 'norm ' 3.0908 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 27 'norm ' .78036 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 28 'Prefactor ' .52826 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 29 'norm ' .70797 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 30 'Normalizat' .94446 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 31 'Prefactor ' 1.0529 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 8224.384 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 217 CALLS 3366 TOTAL EDM= .18E-08 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .11974E-06 9.2694 .13033E-06** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .46629E-08 3.5741 .97624E-08** at limit ** 3 Prefactor 29.024 8.1606 -.44587E-07 -.49889E-01 4 Prefactor .40523E-08 18.457 .21265E-06** at limit ** 5 norm .97145E-08 6.5081 .99621E-07** at limit ** 6 Prefactor .33723E-06 5.2270 -.19193E-06** at limit ** 7 Prefactor .11657E-08 2.4205 -.24129E-07** at limit ** 8 norm .0000 1.9293 -.11328E-08** at limit ** 9 Prefactor 122.36 10.561 -.33870E-07 -.43952 10 Prefactor 5.4924 5.6502 -.37319E-07 .23341E-02 11 Prefactor .97700E-08 13.718 -.27484E-06** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 5.1452 6.6338 .17736E-06 .32114E-02 13 Prefactor .0000 1.7672 -.55323E-08** at limit ** 14 norm .33307E-09 5.7219 -.14210E-06** at limit ** 15 norm .14208E-01 .85141E-01 .66584E-08** at limit ** 16 norm 4.6832 2.8950 .48310E-08 .67136E-02 17 Prefactor .93259E-08 3.6473 -.23271E-07** at limit ** 18 Prefactor 3.6150 3.8176 .29948E-07 .17866E-02 19 Prefactor .0000 2.1998 -.37119E-07** at limit ** 20 norm .48933E-04 380.17 .26990E-05** at limit ** 21 Prefactor .64466 1.2454 -.10101E-07 -.10231E-01 22 Prefactor .64311 1.2504 -.45860E-07 -.11562E-01 23 Prefactor 6.9889 3.4139 .14837E-08 -.51063E-02 24 Prefactor 1.1744 1.5702 -.33555E-07 -.39174E-02 25 Prefactor 2.9035 6.1896 .86478E-07 .52377E-01 26 norm 3.0904 1.5746 .12085E-08 -.32298E-02 27 norm .77981 .63406 -.12032E-08 -.22420E-02 28 Prefactor .52521 3.8576 -.12573E-06 .59017E-02 29 norm .70721 .56758 -.23870E-08 -.36298E-02 30 Normalizat .94467 .19176 .10687E-05 -.16026E-03 31 Prefactor 1.0533 .18540 -.22640E-05 -.26781E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 1.19738e-07 Prefactor = 4.66294e-09 Prefactor = 29.0237 Prefactor = 4.05231e-09 norm = 9.71445e-09 Prefactor = 3.3723e-07 Prefactor = 1.16573e-09 norm = 0 Prefactor = 122.364 Prefactor = 5.49241 Prefactor = 9.76996e-09 Prefactor = 5.14521 Prefactor = 0 norm = 3.33067e-10 norm = 0.0142082 norm = 4.68321 Prefactor = 9.32587e-09 Prefactor = 3.61501 Prefactor = 0 norm = 4.8933e-05 Prefactor = 0.64466 Prefactor = 0.643111 Prefactor = 6.98886 Prefactor = 1.17443 Prefactor = 2.9035 norm = 3.09037 norm = 0.779811 Prefactor = 0.52521 norm = 0.707208 Normalizat = 0.944666 Prefactor = 1.05328 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38427673 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.492e+00 5.753e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.053e+00 1.587e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 9.447e-01 1.663e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.19 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.47e-08 +/- 2.58e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.13e-05 +/- 1.18e-05 TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 8.48287910659e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.006458011502 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/39004523/likelihoodResults_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 8223.55105438 delta logL = 0.833222349054 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509828 delta logL = 0.859178449497 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .66750 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 3.6055 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .86437 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1063 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 8223.525 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 262 TOTAL EDM= .82E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .66692 5.0585 .63387E-03 .13241E-01 2 Index 3.6062 1.7698 .10435 .23336E-03 3 Normalizat .86419 .40047E-01 .44445E-01 .22397E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .39013E-01 .53704E-01 .66112E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0.666921 Index = 3.60618 Normalizat = 0.864194 Prefactor = 1.10654 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8223.525 FROM HESSE STATUS=NOT POSDEF 33 CALLS 295 TOTAL EDM= .76E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .66692 11.616 .43259E-05 -1.5692 2 Index 3.6062 3.2744 .36264E-02 -.28251 3 Normalizat .86419 .18910 .26663E-03 -.97730 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .17792 .23744E-03 -.89258 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 2 estimated distance: 7.61749e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 5.56673 2 3.60308 3 0.189243 4 0.178011 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509731 delta logL = 0.859179422505 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 6.669e-01 5.567e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 3.606e+00 3.603e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.107e+00 1.780e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 8.642e-01 1.892e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.62 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Free Index): 3.61 +/- 3.60 Photon Flux (Free Index): 7.98e-08 +/- 7.00e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.29e-05 +/- 8.47e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/39004523/cmap_HighResolution_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='6.46e-03', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.47e-08', energy_flux2='1.29e-05', photon_flux_error='2.58e-08', dlogl='8.59e-01', energy_flux='1.13e-05', photon_flux2='7.98e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-09-24 13:10:29.324961', photon_index_error2='3.60', photon_index2='3.61', ts='1.71', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.05', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='8.48e-08', energy_flux_error2='8.47e-06', EG='0.94', time_epoch_completed='1790280629.32', return_code='0', job_id='39004523', GAL2='1.11', EG2='0.86', return_code2='102', energy_flux_error='1.18e-05', photon_flux_error2='7.00e-08', ts2='3.62', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2208' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Thu Sep 24 13:10:29 PDT 2026 tfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits .....................! real 8.69 user 8.15 sys 0.23 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/expmap_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits .....................! real 71.73 user 66.88 sys 4.15 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 211 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J1615.6+4712 @ 243.922 47.2028 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/cmap_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=243.922 yref=47.2028 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.62 user 0.23 sys 0.11 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/cmap_HighResolution_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=243.922 yref=47.2028 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.63 user 0.24 sys 0.11 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/39004658/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits.....................! real 25.94 user 24.40 sys 1.05 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/39004658/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/39004658/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/39004658/expmap_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/39004658/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/39004658/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1615.6+4712' 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 1.421e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39004658/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39004658/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/39004658/expmap_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/39004658/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/39004658/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38659265 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38875339 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .45293E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .61519E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' 28.851 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' .47024E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .17685E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .34385 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' .57939E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .31759E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 122.01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' 5.6075 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .82678E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 5.1658 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' .12104E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .13797E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' .14336E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'norm ' 4.6530 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' .89045E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 3.6004 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' .14577E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' .68847 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .64017 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' .64496 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' 6.9953 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 1.1728 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Prefactor ' 2.8987 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 26 'norm ' 3.0908 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 27 'norm ' .78036 1.0000 .00L_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/39004628/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits.....................! real 30.19 user 26.81 sys 1.01 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/39004628/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/39004628/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/39004628/expmap_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/39004628/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/39004628/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1615.6+4712' 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 1.421e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39004628/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39004628/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/39004628/expmap_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/39004628/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/39004628/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38659265 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38875339 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .45293E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .61519E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' 28.851 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' .47024E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .17685E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .34385 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' .57939E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .31759E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 122.01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' 5.6075 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .82678E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 5.1658 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' .12104E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .13797E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' .14336E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'norm ' 4.6530 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' .89045E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 3.6004 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' .14577E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' .68847 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .64017 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' .64496 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' 6.9953 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 1.1728 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Prefactor ' 2.8987 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 26 'norm ' 3.0908 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 27 'norm ' .78036 1.0000 .0tfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits .....................! real 8.84 user 8.12 sys 0.21 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/expmap_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits .....................! real 72.26 user 67.14 sys 4.20 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 211 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J1615.6+4712 @ 243.922 47.2028 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/cmap_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=243.922 yref=47.2028 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 1.06 user 0.23 sys 0.12 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/cmap_HighResolution_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=243.922 yref=47.2028 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.62 user 0.24 sys 0.14 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding source GALDone. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38427673 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.492e+00 5.753e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.053e+00 1.587e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 9.447e-01 1.663e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.19 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.47e-08 +/- 2.58e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.13e-05 +/- 1.18e-05 TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 8.48287910659e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.006458011502 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/39004563/likelihoodResults_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 8223.55105438 delta logL = 0.833222349054 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509828 delta logL = 0.859178449497 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .66750 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 3.6055 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .86437 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1063 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 8223.525 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 262 TOTAL EDM= .82E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .66692 5.0585 .63387E-03 .13241E-01 2 Index 3.6062 1.7698 .10435 .23336E-03 3 Normalizat .86419 .40047E-01 .44445E-01 .22397E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .39013E-01 .53704E-01 .66112E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0.666921 Index = 3.60618 Normalizat = 0.864194 Prefactor = 1.10654 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8223.525 FROM HESSE STATUS=NOT POSDEF 33 CALLS 295 TOTAL EDM= .76E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .66692 11.616 .43259E-05 -1.5692 2 Index 3.6062 3.2744 .36264E-02 -.28251 3 Normalizat .86419 .18910 .26663E-03 -.97730 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .17792 .23744E-03 -.89258 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 2 estimated distance: 7.61749e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 5.56673 2 3.60308 3 0.189243 4 0.178011 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509731 delta logL = 0.859179422505 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 6.669e-01 5.567e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 3.606e+00 3.603e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.107e+00 1.780e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 8.642e-01 1.892e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.62 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Free Index): 3.61 +/- 3.60 Photon Flux (Free Index): 7.98e-08 +/- 7.00e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.29e-05 +/- 8.47e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/39004563/cmap_HighResolution_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='6.46e-03', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.47e-08', energy_flux2='1.29e-05', photon_flux_error='2.58e-08', dlogl='8.59e-01', energy_flux='1.13e-05', photon_flux2='7.98e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-09-24 13:10:57.077974', photon_index_error2='3.60', photon_index2='3.61', ts='1.71', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.05', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='8.48e-08', energy_flux_error2='8.47e-06', EG='0.94', time_epoch_completed='1790280657.08', return_code='0', job_id='39004563', GAL2='1.11', EG2='0.86', return_code2='102', energy_flux_error='1.18e-05', photon_flux_error2='7.00e-08', ts2='3.62', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2208' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Thu Sep 24 13:10:57 PDT 2026 00 .10000E+07 28 'Prefactor ' .52826 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 29 'norm ' .70797 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 30 'Normalizat' .94446 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 31 'Prefactor ' 1.0529 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 8224.384 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 217 CALLS 3366 TOTAL EDM= .18E-08 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .11974E-06 9.2694 .13033E-06** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .46629E-08 3.5741 .97624E-08** at limit ** 3 Prefactor 29.024 8.1606 -.44587E-07 -.49889E-01 4 Prefactor .40523E-08 18.457 .21265E-06** at limit ** 5 norm .97145E-08 6.5081 .99621E-07** at limit ** 6 Prefactor .33723E-06 5.2270 -.19193E-06** at limit ** 7 Prefactor .11657E-08 2.4205 -.24129E-07** at limit ** 8 norm .0000 1.9293 -.11328E-08** at limit ** 9 Prefactor 122.36 10.561 -.33870E-07 -.43952 10 Prefactor 5.4924 5.6502 -.37319E-07 .23341E-02 11 Prefactor .97700E-08 13.718 -.27484E-06** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 5.1452 6.6338 .17736E-06 .32114E-02 13 Prefactor .0000 1.7672 -.55323E-08** at limit ** 14 norm .33307E-09 5.7219 -.14210E-06** at limit ** 15 norm .14208E-01 .85141E-01 .66584E-08** at limit ** 16 norm 4.6832 2.8950 .48310E-08 .67136E-02 17 Prefactor .93259E-08 3.6473 -.23271E-07** at limit ** 18 Prefactor 3.6150 3.8176 .29948E-07 .17866E-02 19 Prefactor .0000 2.1998 -.37119E-07** at limit ** 20 norm .48933E-04 380.17 .26990E-05** at limit ** 21 Prefactor .64466 1.2454 -.10101E-07 -.10231E-01 22 Prefactor .64311 1.2504 -.45860E-07 -.11562E-01 23 Prefactor 6.9889 3.4139 .14837E-08 -.51063E-02 24 Prefactor 1.1744 1.5702 -.33555E-07 -.39174E-02 25 Prefactor 2.9035 6.1896 .86478E-07 .52377E-01 26 norm 3.0904 1.5746 .12085E-08 -.32298E-02 27 norm .77981 .63406 -.12032E-08 -.22420E-02 28 Prefactor .52521 3.8576 -.12573E-06 .59017E-02 29 norm .70721 .56758 -.23870E-08 -.36298E-02 30 Normalizat .94467 .19176 .10687E-05 -.16026E-03 31 Prefactor 1.0533 .18540 -.22640E-05 -.26781E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 1.19738e-07 Prefactor = 4.66294e-09 Prefactor = 29.0237 Prefactor = 4.05231e-09 norm = 9.71445e-09 Prefactor = 3.3723e-07 Prefactor = 1.16573e-09 norm = 0 Prefactor = 122.364 Prefactor = 5.49241 Prefactor = 9.76996e-09 Prefactor = 5.14521 Prefactor = 0 norm = 3.33067e-10 norm = 0.0142082 norm = 4.68321 Prefactor = 9.32587e-09 Prefactor = 3.61501 Prefactor = 0 norm = 4.8933e-05 Prefactor = 0.64466 Prefactor = 0.643111 Prefactor = 6.98886 Prefactor = 1.17443 Prefactor = 2.9035 norm = 3.09037 norm = 0.779811 Prefactor = 0.52521 norm = 0.707208 Normalizat = 0.944666 Prefactor = 1.05328 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8224.384 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 702 CALLS 4068 TOTAL EDM= .15E-04 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .11974E-06 2.1170 .42118E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .46629E-08 3.7872 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor 29.024 20.699 .18620E-03 -1.5600 4 Prefactor .40523E-08 21.061 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 norm .97145E-08 6.5405 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .33723E-06 77.618 .96304E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor .11657E-08 2.4195 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 norm .0000 1.9296 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor 122.36 98.446 .90537E-04 -1.5487 10 Prefactor 5.4924 5.7535 .42400E-03 -1.5661 11 Prefactor .97700E-08 14.968 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 5.1452 7.2249 .44207E-03 -1.5663 13 Prefactor .0000 1.7547 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 14 norm .33307E-09 5.7515 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .14208E-01 .53075E-01 .72541E-03 -1.5706 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 norm 4.6832 8.2757 .46632E-03 -1.5665 17 Prefactor .93259E-08 3.8248 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 18 Prefactor 3.6150 3.8451 .53228E-03 -1.5670 19 Prefactor .0000 2.1984 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 norm .48933E-04 26.339 .12900E-01 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 21 Prefactor .64466 1.2625 .65704E-03 -1.5692 22 Prefactor .64311 1.2601 .65294E-03 -1.5692 23 Prefactor 6.9889 3.4524 .37907E-03 -1.5655 24 Prefactor 1.1744 1.6163 .10583E-02 -1.5686 25 Prefactor 2.9035 7.2646 .59659E-03 -1.5674 26 norm 3.0904 1.5825 .57661E-03 -1.5673 27 norm .77981 .64551 .54410E-03 -1.5690 28 Prefactor .52521 2.7971 .75916E-02 -1.5693 29 norm .70721 .58124 .60064E-03 -1.5691 30 Normalizat .94467 .16618 .45467E-01 -.94908 31 Prefactor 1.0533 .15863 .39745E-01 -.90974 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.54612e-05 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00100703 2 0.000265108 3 20.6987 4 0.000582309 5 0.000503739 6 0.0102326 7 0.00010515 8 6.75877e-06 9 98.4472 10 5.7535 11 0.000765702 12 7.22495 13 9.79356e-06 14 9.05571e-05 15 0.0530745 16 8.27574 17 0.000377905 18 3.84515 19 4.12478e-07 20 0.0718014 21 1.2625 22 1.26009 23 3.4524 24 1.61629 25 7.26466 26 1.58249 27 0.645513 28 2.42412 29 0.581241 30 0.166271 31 0.158701 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38427673 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.492e+00 5.753e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.053e+00 1.587e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 9.447e-01 1.663e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.19 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.47e-08 +/- 2.58e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.13e-05 +/- 1.18e-05 TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 8.48287910659e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.006458011502 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/39004555/likelihoodResults_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 8223.55105438 delta logL = 0.833222349054 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509828 delta logL = 0.859178449497 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .66750 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 3.6055 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .86437 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1063 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 8223.525 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 262 TOTAL EDM= .82E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .66692 5.0585 .63387E-03 .13241E-01 2 Index 3.6062 1.7698 .10435 .23336E-03 3 Normalizat .86419 .40047E-01 .44445E-01 .22397E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .39013E-01 .53704E-01 .66112E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0.666921 Index = 3.60618 Normalizat = 0.864194 Prefactor = 1.10654 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8223.525 FROM HESSE STATUS=NOT POSDEF 33 CALLS 295 TOTAL EDM= .76E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .66692 11.616 .43259E-05 -1.5692 2 Index 3.6062 3.2744 .36264E-02 -.28251 3 Normalizat .86419 .18910 .26663E-03 -.97730 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .17792 .23744E-03 -.89258 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 2 estimated distance: 7.61749e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 5.56673 2 3.60308 3 0.189243 4 0.178011 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory 000 .10000E+07 28 'Prefactor ' .52826 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 29 'norm ' .70797 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 30 'Normalizat' .94446 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 31 'Prefactor ' 1.0529 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 8224.384 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 217 CALLS 3366 TOTAL EDM= .18E-08 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .11974E-06 9.2694 .13033E-06** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .46629E-08 3.5741 .97624E-08** at limit ** 3 Prefactor 29.024 8.1606 -.44587E-07 -.49889E-01 4 Prefactor .40523E-08 18.457 .21265E-06** at limit ** 5 norm .97145E-08 6.5081 .99621E-07** at limit ** 6 Prefactor .33723E-06 5.2270 -.19193E-06** at limit ** 7 Prefactor .11657E-08 2.4205 -.24129E-07** at limit ** 8 norm .0000 1.9293 -.11328E-08** at limit ** 9 Prefactor 122.36 10.561 -.33870E-07 -.43952 10 Prefactor 5.4924 5.6502 -.37319E-07 .23341E-02 11 Prefactor .97700E-08 13.718 -.27484E-06** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 5.1452 6.6338 .17736E-06 .32114E-02 13 Prefactor .0000 1.7672 -.55323E-08** at limit ** 14 norm .33307E-09 5.7219 -.14210E-06** at limit ** 15 norm .14208E-01 .85141E-01 .66584E-08** at limit ** 16 norm 4.6832 2.8950 .48310E-08 .67136E-02 17 Prefactor .93259E-08 3.6473 -.23271E-07** at limit ** 18 Prefactor 3.6150 3.8176 .29948E-07 .17866E-02 19 Prefactor .0000 2.1998 -.37119E-07** at limit ** 20 norm .48933E-04 380.17 .26990E-05** at limit ** 21 Prefactor .64466 1.2454 -.10101E-07 -.10231E-01 22 Prefactor .64311 1.2504 -.45860E-07 -.11562E-01 23 Prefactor 6.9889 3.4139 .14837E-08 -.51063E-02 24 Prefactor 1.1744 1.5702 -.33555E-07 -.39174E-02 25 Prefactor 2.9035 6.1896 .86478E-07 .52377E-01 26 norm 3.0904 1.5746 .12085E-08 -.32298E-02 27 norm .77981 .63406 -.12032E-08 -.22420E-02 28 Prefactor .52521 3.8576 -.12573E-06 .59017E-02 29 norm .70721 .56758 -.23870E-08 -.36298E-02 30 Normalizat .94467 .19176 .10687E-05 -.16026E-03 31 Prefactor 1.0533 .18540 -.22640E-05 -.26781E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 1.19738e-07 Prefactor = 4.66294e-09 Prefactor = 29.0237 Prefactor = 4.05231e-09 norm = 9.71445e-09 Prefactor = 3.3723e-07 Prefactor = 1.16573e-09 norm = 0 Prefactor = 122.364 Prefactor = 5.49241 Prefactor = 9.76996e-09 Prefactor = 5.14521 Prefactor = 0 norm = 3.33067e-10 norm = 0.0142082 norm = 4.68321 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509731 delta logL = 0.859179422505 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 6.669e-01 5.567e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 3.606e+00 3.603e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.107e+00 1.780e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 8.642e-01 1.892e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.62 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Free Index): 3.61 +/- 3.60 Photon Flux (Free Index): 7.98e-08 +/- 7.00e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.29e-05 +/- 8.47e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/39004555/cmap_HighResolution_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='6.46e-03', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.47e-08', energy_flux2='1.29e-05', photon_flux_error='2.58e-08', dlogl='8.59e-01', energy_flux='1.13e-05', photon_flux2='7.98e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-09-24 13:11:04.654277', photon_index_error2='3.60', photon_index2='3.61', ts='1.71', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.05', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='8.48e-08', energy_flux_error2='8.47e-06', EG='0.94', time_epoch_completed='1790280664.65', return_code='0', job_id='39004555', GAL2='1.11', EG2='0.86', return_code2='102', energy_flux_error='1.18e-05', photon_flux_error2='7.00e-08', ts2='3.62', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2208' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Thu Sep 24 13:11:04 PDT 2026 Prefactor = 9.32587e-09 Prefactor = 3.61501 Prefactor = 0 norm = 4.8933e-05 Prefactor = 0.64466 Prefactor = 0.643111 Prefactor = 6.98886 Prefactor = 1.17443 Prefactor = 2.9035 norm = 3.09037 norm = 0.779811 Prefactor = 0.52521 norm = 0.707208 Normalizat = 0.944666 Prefactor = 1.05328 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8224.384 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 702 CALLS 4068 TOTAL EDM= .15E-04 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .11974E-06 2.1170 .42118E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .46629E-08 3.7872 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor 29.024 20.699 .18620E-03 -1.5600 4 Prefactor .40523E-08 21.061 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 norm .97145E-08 6.5405 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .33723E-06 77.618 .96304E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor .11657E-08 2.4195 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 norm .0000 1.9296 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor 122.36 98.446 .90537E-04 -1.5487 10 Prefactor 5.4924 5.7535 .42400E-03 -1.5661 11 Prefactor .97700E-08 14.968 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 5.1452 7.2249 .44207E-03 -1.5663 13 Prefactor .0000 1.7547 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 14 norm .33307E-09 5.7515 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .14208E-01 .53075E-01 .72541E-03 -1.5706 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 norm 4.6832 8.2757 .46632E-03 -1.5665 17 Prefactor .93259E-08 3.8248 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 18 Prefactor 3.6150 3.8451 .53228E-03 -1.5670 19 Prefactor .0000 2.1984 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 norm .48933E-04 26.339 .12900E-01 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 21 Prefactor .64466 1.2625 .65704E-03 -1.5692 22 Prefactor .64311 1.2601 .65294E-03 -1.5692 23 Prefactor 6.9889 3.4524 .37907E-03 -1.5655 24 Prefactor 1.1744 1.6163 .10583E-02 -1.5686 25 Prefactor 2.9035 7.2646 .59659E-03 -1.5674 26 norm 3.0904 1.5825 .57661E-03 -1.5673 27 norm .77981 .64551 .54410E-03 -1.5690 28 Prefactor .52521 2.7971 .75916E-02 -1.5693 29 norm .70721 .58124 .60064E-03 -1.5691 30 Normalizat .94467 .16618 .45467E-01 -.94908 31 Prefactor 1.0533 .15863 .39745E-01 -.90974 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.54612e-05 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00100703 2 0.000265108 3 20.6987 4 0.000582309 5 0.000503739 6 0.0102326 7 0.00010515 8 6.75877e-06 9 98.4472 10 5.7535 11 0.000765702 12 7.22495 13 9.79356e-06 14 9.05571e-05 15 0.0530745 16 8.27574 17 0.000377905 18 3.84515 19 4.12478e-07 20 0.0718014 21 1.2625 22 1.26009 23 3.4524 24 1.61629 25 7.26466 26 1.58249 27 0.645513 28 2.42412 29 0.581241 30 0.166271 31 0.158701 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8224.384 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 702 CALLS 4068 TOTAL EDM= .15E-04 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .11974E-06 2.1170 .42118E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .46629E-08 3.7872 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor 29.024 20.699 .18620E-03 -1.5600 4 Prefactor .40523E-08 21.061 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 norm .97145E-08 6.5405 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .33723E-06 77.618 .96304E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor .11657E-08 2.4195 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 norm .0000 1.9296 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor 122.36 98.446 .90537E-04 -1.5487 10 Prefactor 5.4924 5.7535 .42400E-03 -1.5661 11 Prefactor .97700E-08 14.968 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 5.1452 7.2249 .44207E-03 -1.5663 13 Prefactor .0000 1.7547 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 14 norm .33307E-09 5.7515 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .14208E-01 .53075E-01 .72541E-03 -1.5706 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 norm 4.6832 8.2757 .46632E-03 -1.5665 17 Prefactor .93259E-08 3.8248 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 18 Prefactor 3.6150 3.8451 .53228E-03 -1.5670 19 Prefactor .0000 2.1984 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 norm .48933E-04 26.339 .12900E-01 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 21 Prefactor .64466 1.2625 .65704E-03 -1.5692 22 Prefactor .64311 1.2601 .65294E-03 -1.5692 23 Prefactor 6.9889 3.4524 .37907E-03 -1.5655 24 Prefactor 1.1744 1.6163 .10583E-02 -1.5686 25 Prefactor 2.9035 7.2646 .59659E-03 -1.5674 26 norm 3.0904 1.5825 .57661E-03 -1.5673 27 norm .77981 .64551 .54410E-03 -1.5690 28 Prefactor .52521 2.7971 .75916E-02 -1.5693 29 norm .70721 .58124 .60064E-03 -1.5691 30 Normalizat .94467 .16618 .45467E-01 -.94908 31 Prefactor 1.0533 .15863 .39745E-01 -.90974 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.54612e-05 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00100703 2 0.000265108 3 20.6987 4 0.000582309 5 0.000503739 6 0.0102326 7 0.00010515 8 6.75877e-06 9 98.4472 10 5.7535 11 0.000765702 12 7.22495 13 9.79356e-06 14 9.05571e-05 15 0.0530745 16 8.27574 17 0.000377905 18 3.84515 19 4.12478e-07 20 0.0718014 21 1.2625 22 1.26009 23 3.4524 24 1.61629 25 7.26466 26 1.58249 27 0.645513 28 2.42412 29 0.581241 30 0.166271 31 0.158701 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38427673 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.492e+00 5.753e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.053e+00 1.587e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 9.447e-01 1.663e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.19 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.47e-08 +/- 2.58e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.13e-05 +/- 1.18e-05 TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 8.48287910659e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.006458011502 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/39004636/likelihoodResults_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 8223.55105438 delta logL = 0.833222349054 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509828 delta logL = 0.859178449497 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .66750 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 3.6055 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .86437 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1063 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 8223.525 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 262 TOTAL EDM= .82E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .66692 5.0585 .63387E-03 .13241E-01 2 Index 3.6062 1.7698 .10435 .23336E-03 3 Normalizat .86419 .40047E-01 .44445E-01 .22397E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .39013E-01 .53704E-01 .66112E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0.666921 Index = 3.60618 Normalizat = 0.864194 Prefactor = 1.10654 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8223.525 FROM HESSE STATUS=NOT POSDEF 33 CALLS 295 TOTAL EDM= .76E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .66692 11.616 .43259E-05 -1.5692 2 Index 3.6062 3.2744 .36264E-02 -.28251 3 Normalizat .86419 .18910 .26663E-03 -.97730 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .17792 .23744E-03 -.89258 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 2 estimated distance: 7.61749e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 5.56673 2 3.60308 3 0.189243 4 0.178011 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509731 delta logL = 0.859179422505 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 6.669e-01 5.567e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 3.606e+00 3.603e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.107e+00 1.780e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 8.642e-01 1.892e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.62 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Free Index): 3.61 +/- 3.60 Photon Flux (Free Index): 7.98e-08 +/- 7.00e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.29e-05 +/- 8.47e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/39004636/cmap_HighResolution_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='6.46e-03', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.47e-08', energy_flux2='1.29e-05', photon_flux_error='2.58e-08', dlogl='8.59e-01', energy_flux='1.13e-05', photon_flux2='7.98e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-09-24 13:12:04.698443', photon_index_error2='3.60', photon_index2='3.61', ts='1.71', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.05', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='8.48e-08', energy_flux_error2='8.47e-06', EG='0.94', time_epoch_completed='1790280724.7', return_code='0', job_id='39004636', GAL2='1.11', EG2='0.86', return_code2='102', energy_flux_error='1.18e-05', photon_flux_error2='7.00e-08', ts2='3.62', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2208' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Thu Sep 24 13:12:04 PDT 2026 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38427673 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.492e+00 5.753e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.053e+00 1.587e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 9.447e-01 1.663e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.19 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.47e-08 +/- 2.58e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.13e-05 +/- 1.18e-05 TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 8.48287910659e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.006458011502 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/39004658/likelihoodResults_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 8223.55105438 delta logL = 0.833222349054 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509828 delta logL = 0.859178449497 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .66750 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 3.6055 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .86437 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1063 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 8223.525 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 262 TOTAL EDM= .82E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .66692 5.0585 .63387E-03 .13241E-01 2 Index 3.6062 1.7698 .10435 .23336E-03 3 Normalizat .86419 .40047E-01 .44445E-01 .22397E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .39013E-01 .53704E-01 .66112E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0.666921 Index = 3.60618 Normalizat = 0.864194 Prefactor = 1.10654 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8223.525 FROM HESSE STATUS=NOT POSDEF 33 CALLS 295 TOTAL EDM= .76E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .66692 11.616 .43259E-05 -1.5692 2 Index 3.6062 3.2744 .36264E-02 -.28251 3 Normalizat .86419 .18910 .26663E-03 -.97730 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .17792 .23744E-03 -.89258 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 2 estimated distance: 7.61749e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 5.56673 2 3.60308 3 0.189243 4 0.178011 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509731 delta logL = 0.859179422505 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 6.669e-01 5.567e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 3.606e+00 3.603e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.107e+00 1.780e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 8.642e-01 1.892e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.62 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Free Index): 3.61 +/- 3.60 Photon Flux (Free Index): 7.98e-08 +/- 7.00e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.29e-05 +/- 8.47e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/39004658/cmap_HighResolution_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='6.46e-03', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.47e-08', energy_flux2='1.29e-05', photon_flux_error='2.58e-08', dlogl='8.59e-01', energy_flux='1.13e-05', photon_flux2='7.98e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-09-24 13:12:40.884053', photon_index_error2='3.60', photon_index2='3.61', ts='1.71', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.05', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='8.48e-08', energy_flux_error2='8.47e-06', EG='0.94', time_epoch_completed='1790280760.88', return_code='0', job_id='39004658', GAL2='1.11', EG2='0.86', return_code2='102', energy_flux_error='1.18e-05', photon_flux_error2='7.00e-08', ts2='3.62', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2208' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Thu Sep 24 13:12:40 PDT 2026 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38427673 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.492e+00 5.753e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.053e+00 1.587e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 9.447e-01 1.663e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.19 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.47e-08 +/- 2.58e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.13e-05 +/- 1.18e-05 TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 8.48287910659e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.006458011502 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/39004628/likelihoodResults_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 8223.55105438 delta logL = 0.833222349054 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509828 delta logL = 0.859178449497 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .66750 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 3.6055 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .86437 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1063 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 8223.525 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 262 TOTAL EDM= .82E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .66692 5.0585 .63387E-03 .13241E-01 2 Index 3.6062 1.7698 .10435 .23336E-03 3 Normalizat .86419 .40047E-01 .44445E-01 .22397E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .39013E-01 .53704E-01 .66112E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0.666921 Index = 3.60618 Normalizat = 0.864194 Prefactor = 1.10654 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8223.525 FROM HESSE STATUS=NOT POSDEF 33 CALLS 295 TOTAL EDM= .76E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .66692 11.616 .43259E-05 -1.5692 2 Index 3.6062 3.2744 .36264E-02 -.28251 3 Normalizat .86419 .18910 .26663E-03 -.97730 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .17792 .23744E-03 -.89258 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 2 estimated distance: 7.61749e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 5.56673 2 3.60308 3 0.189243 4 0.178011 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509731 delta logL = 0.859179422505 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 6.669e-01 5.567e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 3.606e+00 3.603e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.107e+00 1.780e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 8.642e-01 1.892e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.62 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Free Index): 3.61 +/- 3.60 Photon Flux (Free Index): 7.98e-08 +/- 7.00e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.29e-05 +/- 8.47e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/39004628/cmap_HighResolution_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='6.46e-03', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.47e-08', energy_flux2='1.29e-05', photon_flux_error='2.58e-08', dlogl='8.59e-01', energy_flux='1.13e-05', photon_flux2='7.98e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-09-24 13:12:58.752390', photon_index_error2='3.60', photon_index2='3.61', ts='1.71', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.05', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='8.48e-08', energy_flux_error2='8.47e-06', EG='0.94', time_epoch_completed='1790280778.75', return_code='0', job_id='39004628', GAL2='1.11', EG2='0.86', return_code2='102', energy_flux_error='1.18e-05', photon_flux_error2='7.00e-08', ts2='3.62', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2208' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Thu Sep 24 13:12:58 PDT 2026 _V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits.....................! real 26.91 user 24.88 sys 1.21 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/expmap_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/39004881/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1615.6+4712' 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 1.421e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/39004881/expmap_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/39004881/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/39004881/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38659265 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38875339 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .45293E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .61519E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' 28.851 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' .47024E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .17685E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .34385 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' .57939E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .31759E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 122.01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' 5.6075 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .82678E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 5.1658 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' .12104E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .13797E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' .14336E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'norm ' 4.6530 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' .89045E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 3.6004 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' .14577E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' .68847 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .64017 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' .64496 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' 6.9953 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 1.1728 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Prefactor ' 2.8987 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 26 'norm ' 3.0908 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 27 'norm ' .78036 1.0000 .00_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits.....................! real 27.06 user 25.10 sys 1.09 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/expmap_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/39004896/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1615.6+4712' 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 1.421e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/39004896/expmap_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/39004896/ltcube_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/39004896/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38659265 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38875339 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .45293E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .61519E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' 28.851 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' .47024E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .17685E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .34385 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' .57939E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .31759E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 122.01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' 5.6075 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .82678E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 5.1658 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' .12104E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .13797E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' .14336E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'norm ' 4.6530 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' .89045E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 3.6004 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' .14577E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' .68847 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .64017 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' .64496 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' 6.9953 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 1.1728 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Prefactor ' 2.8987 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 26 'norm ' 3.0908 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 27 'norm ' .78036 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 28 'Prefactor ' .52826 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 29 'norm ' .70797 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 30 'Normalizat' .94446 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 31 'Prefactor ' 1.0529 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 8224.384 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 217 CALLS 3366 TOTAL EDM= .18E-08 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .11974E-06 9.2694 .13033E-06** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .46629E-08 3.5741 .97624E-08** at limit ** 3 Prefactor 29.024 8.1606 -.44587E-07 -.49889E-01 4 Prefactor .40523E-08 18.457 .21265E-06** at limit ** 5 norm .97145E-08 6.5081 .99621E-07** at limit ** 6 Prefactor .33723E-06 5.2270 -.19193E-06** at limit ** 7 Prefactor .11657E-08 2.4205 -.24129E-07** at limit ** 8 norm .0000 1.9293 -.11328E-08** at limit ** 9 Prefactor 122.36 10.561 -.33870E-07 -.43952 10 Prefactor 5.4924 5.6502 -.37319E-07 .23341E-02 11 Prefactor .97700E-08 13.718 -.27484E-06** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 5.1452 6.6338 .17736E-06 .32114E-02 13 Prefactor .0000 1.7672 -.55323E-08** at limit ** 14 norm .33307E-09 5.7219 -.14210E-06** at limit ** 15 norm .14208E-01 .85141E-01 .66584E-08** at limit ** 16 norm 4.6832 2.8950 .48310E-08 .67136E-02 17 Prefactor .93259E-08 3.6473 -.23271E-07** at limit ** 18 Prefactor 3.6150 3.8176 .29948E-07 .17866E-02 19 Prefactor .0000 2.1998 -.37119E-07** at limit ** 20 norm .48933E-04 380.17 .26990E-05** at limit ** 21 Prefactor .64466 1.2454 -.10101E-07 -.10231E-01 22 Prefactor .64311 1.2504 -.45860E-07 -.11562E-01 23 Prefactor 6.9889 3.4139 .14837E-08 -.51063E-02 24 Prefactor 1.1744 1.5702 -.33555E-07 -.39174E-02 25 Prefactor 2.9035 6.1896 .86478E-07 .52377E-01 26 norm 3.0904 1.5746 .12085E-08 -.32298E-02 27 norm .77981 .63406 -.12032E-08 -.22420E-02 28 Prefactor .52521 3.8576 -.12573E-06 .59017E-02 29 norm .70721 .56758 -.23870E-08 -.36298E-02 30 Normalizat .94467 .19176 .10687E-05 -.16026E-03 31 Prefactor 1.0533 .18540 -.22640E-05 -.26781E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 1.19738e-07 Prefactor = 4.66294e-09 Prefactor = 29.0237 Prefactor = 4.05231e-09 norm = 9.71445e-09 Prefactor = 3.3723e-07 Prefactor = 1.16573e-09 norm = 0 Prefactor = 122.364 Prefactor = 5.49241 Prefactor = 9.76996e-09 Prefactor = 5.14521 Prefactor = 0 norm = 3.33067e-10 norm = 0.0142082 norm = 4.68321 Prefactor = 9.32587e-09 Prefactor = 3.61501 Prefactor = 0 norm = 4.8933e-05 Prefactor = 0.64466 Prefactor = 0.643111 Prefactor = 6.98886 Prefactor = 1.17443 Prefactor = 2.9035 norm = 3.09037 norm = 0.779811 Prefactor = 0.52521 norm = 0.707208 Normalizat = 0.944666 Prefactor = 1.05328 00 .10000E+07 28 'Prefactor ' .52826 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 29 'norm ' .70797 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 30 'Normalizat' .94446 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 31 'Prefactor ' 1.0529 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 8224.384 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 217 CALLS 3366 TOTAL EDM= .18E-08 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .11974E-06 9.2694 .13033E-06** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .46629E-08 3.5741 .97624E-08** at limit ** 3 Prefactor 29.024 8.1606 -.44587E-07 -.49889E-01 4 Prefactor .40523E-08 18.457 .21265E-06** at limit ** 5 norm .97145E-08 6.5081 .99621E-07** at limit ** 6 Prefactor .33723E-06 5.2270 -.19193E-06** at limit ** 7 Prefactor .11657E-08 2.4205 -.24129E-07** at limit ** 8 norm .0000 1.9293 -.11328E-08** at limit ** 9 Prefactor 122.36 10.561 -.33870E-07 -.43952 10 Prefactor 5.4924 5.6502 -.37319E-07 .23341E-02 11 Prefactor .97700E-08 13.718 -.27484E-06** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 5.1452 6.6338 .17736E-06 .32114E-02 13 Prefactor .0000 1.7672 -.55323E-08** at limit ** 14 norm .33307E-09 5.7219 -.14210E-06** at limit ** 15 norm .14208E-01 .85141E-01 .66584E-08** at limit ** 16 norm 4.6832 2.8950 .48310E-08 .67136E-02 17 Prefactor .93259E-08 3.6473 -.23271E-07** at limit ** 18 Prefactor 3.6150 3.8176 .29948E-07 .17866E-02 19 Prefactor .0000 2.1998 -.37119E-07** at limit ** 20 norm .48933E-04 380.17 .26990E-05** at limit ** 21 Prefactor .64466 1.2454 -.10101E-07 -.10231E-01 22 Prefactor .64311 1.2504 -.45860E-07 -.11562E-01 23 Prefactor 6.9889 3.4139 .14837E-08 -.51063E-02 24 Prefactor 1.1744 1.5702 -.33555E-07 -.39174E-02 25 Prefactor 2.9035 6.1896 .86478E-07 .52377E-01 26 norm 3.0904 1.5746 .12085E-08 -.32298E-02 27 norm .77981 .63406 -.12032E-08 -.22420E-02 28 Prefactor .52521 3.8576 -.12573E-06 .59017E-02 29 norm .70721 .56758 -.23870E-08 -.36298E-02 30 Normalizat .94467 .19176 .10687E-05 -.16026E-03 31 Prefactor 1.0533 .18540 -.22640E-05 -.26781E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 1.19738e-07 Prefactor = 4.66294e-09 Prefactor = 29.0237 Prefactor = 4.05231e-09 norm = 9.71445e-09 Prefactor = 3.3723e-07 Prefactor = 1.16573e-09 norm = 0 Prefactor = 122.364 Prefactor = 5.49241 Prefactor = 9.76996e-09 Prefactor = 5.14521 Prefactor = 0 norm = 3.33067e-10 norm = 0.0142082 norm = 4.68321 Prefactor = 9.32587e-09 Prefactor = 3.61501 Prefactor = 0 norm = 4.8933e-05 Prefactor = 0.64466 Prefactor = 0.643111 Prefactor = 6.98886 Prefactor = 1.17443 Prefactor = 2.9035 norm = 3.09037 norm = 0.779811 Prefactor = 0.52521 norm = 0.707208 Normalizat = 0.944666 Prefactor = 1.05328 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8224.384 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 702 CALLS 4068 TOTAL EDM= .15E-04 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .11974E-06 2.1170 .42118E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .46629E-08 3.7872 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor 29.024 20.699 .18620E-03 -1.5600 4 Prefactor .40523E-08 21.061 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 norm .97145E-08 6.5405 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .33723E-06 77.618 .96304E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor .11657E-08 2.4195 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 norm .0000 1.9296 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor 122.36 98.446 .90537E-04 -1.5487 10 Prefactor 5.4924 5.7535 .42400E-03 -1.5661 11 Prefactor .97700E-08 14.968 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 5.1452 7.2249 .44207E-03 -1.5663 13 Prefactor .0000 1.7547 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 14 norm .33307E-09 5.7515 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .14208E-01 .53075E-01 .72541E-03 -1.5706 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 norm 4.6832 8.2757 .46632E-03 -1.5665 17 Prefactor .93259E-08 3.8248 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 18 Prefactor 3.6150 3.8451 .53228E-03 -1.5670 19 Prefactor .0000 2.1984 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 norm .48933E-04 26.339 .12900E-01 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 21 Prefactor .64466 1.2625 .65704E-03 -1.5692 22 Prefactor .64311 1.2601 .65294E-03 -1.5692 23 Prefactor 6.9889 3.4524 .37907E-03 -1.5655 24 Prefactor 1.1744 1.6163 .10583E-02 -1.5686 25 Prefactor 2.9035 7.2646 .59659E-03 -1.5674 26 norm 3.0904 1.5825 .57661E-03 -1.5673 27 norm .77981 .64551 .54410E-03 -1.5690 28 Prefactor .52521 2.7971 .75916E-02 -1.5693 29 norm .70721 .58124 .60064E-03 -1.5691 30 Normalizat .94467 .16618 .45467E-01 -.94908 31 Prefactor 1.0533 .15863 .39745E-01 -.90974 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.54612e-05 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00100703 2 0.000265108 3 20.6987 4 0.000582309 5 0.000503739 6 0.0102326 7 0.00010515 8 6.75877e-06 9 98.4472 10 5.7535 11 0.000765702 12 7.22495 13 9.79356e-06 14 9.05571e-05 15 0.0530745 16 8.27574 17 0.000377905 18 3.84515 19 4.12478e-07 20 0.0718014 21 1.2625 22 1.26009 23 3.4524 24 1.61629 25 7.26466 26 1.58249 27 0.645513 28 2.42412 29 0.581241 30 0.166271 31 0.158701 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8224.384 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 702 CALLS 4068 TOTAL EDM= .15E-04 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .11974E-06 2.1170 .42118E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .46629E-08 3.7872 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor 29.024 20.699 .18620E-03 -1.5600 4 Prefactor .40523E-08 21.061 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 norm .97145E-08 6.5405 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .33723E-06 77.618 .96304E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor .11657E-08 2.4195 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 norm .0000 1.9296 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor 122.36 98.446 .90537E-04 -1.5487 10 Prefactor 5.4924 5.7535 .42400E-03 -1.5661 11 Prefactor .97700E-08 14.968 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 5.1452 7.2249 .44207E-03 -1.5663 13 Prefactor .0000 1.7547 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 14 norm .33307E-09 5.7515 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .14208E-01 .53075E-01 .72541E-03 -1.5706 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 norm 4.6832 8.2757 .46632E-03 -1.5665 17 Prefactor .93259E-08 3.8248 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 18 Prefactor 3.6150 3.8451 .53228E-03 -1.5670 19 Prefactor .0000 2.1984 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 norm .48933E-04 26.339 .12900E-01 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 21 Prefactor .64466 1.2625 .65704E-03 -1.5692 22 Prefactor .64311 1.2601 .65294E-03 -1.5692 23 Prefactor 6.9889 3.4524 .37907E-03 -1.5655 24 Prefactor 1.1744 1.6163 .10583E-02 -1.5686 25 Prefactor 2.9035 7.2646 .59659E-03 -1.5674 26 norm 3.0904 1.5825 .57661E-03 -1.5673 27 norm .77981 .64551 .54410E-03 -1.5690 28 Prefactor .52521 2.7971 .75916E-02 -1.5693 29 norm .70721 .58124 .60064E-03 -1.5691 30 Normalizat .94467 .16618 .45467E-01 -.94908 31 Prefactor 1.0533 .15863 .39745E-01 -.90974 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.54612e-05 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.00100703 2 0.000265108 3 20.6987 4 0.000582309 5 0.000503739 6 0.0102326 7 0.00010515 8 6.75877e-06 9 98.4472 10 5.7535 11 0.000765702 12 7.22495 13 9.79356e-06 14 9.05571e-05 15 0.0530745 16 8.27574 17 0.000377905 18 3.84515 19 4.12478e-07 20 0.0718014 21 1.2625 22 1.26009 23 3.4524 24 1.61629 25 7.26466 26 1.58249 27 0.645513 28 2.42412 29 0.581241 30 0.166271 31 0.158701 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38427673 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.492e+00 5.753e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.053e+00 1.587e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 9.447e-01 1.663e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.19 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.47e-08 +/- 2.58e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.13e-05 +/- 1.18e-05 TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 8.48287910659e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.006458011502 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/39004881/likelihoodResults_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 8223.55105438 delta logL = 0.833222349054 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509828 delta logL = 0.859178449497 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .66750 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 3.6055 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .86437 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1063 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 8223.525 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 262 TOTAL EDM= .82E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .66692 5.0585 .63387E-03 .13241E-01 2 Index 3.6062 1.7698 .10435 .23336E-03 3 Normalizat .86419 .40047E-01 .44445E-01 .22397E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .39013E-01 .53704E-01 .66112E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0.666921 Index = 3.60618 Normalizat = 0.864194 Prefactor = 1.10654 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8223.525 FROM HESSE STATUS=NOT POSDEF 33 CALLS 295 TOTAL EDM= .76E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .66692 11.616 .43259E-05 -1.5692 2 Index 3.6062 3.2744 .36264E-02 -.28251 3 Normalizat .86419 .18910 .26663E-03 -.97730 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .17792 .23744E-03 -.89258 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 2 estimated distance: 7.61749e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 5.56673 2 3.60308 3 0.189243 4 0.178011 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509731 delta logL = 0.859179422505 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 6.669e-01 5.567e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 3.606e+00 3.603e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.107e+00 1.780e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 8.642e-01 1.892e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.62 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Free Index): 3.61 +/- 3.60 Photon Flux (Free Index): 7.98e-08 +/- 7.00e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.29e-05 +/- 8.47e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/39004881/cmap_HighResolution_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='6.46e-03', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.47e-08', energy_flux2='1.29e-05', photon_flux_error='2.58e-08', dlogl='8.59e-01', energy_flux='1.13e-05', photon_flux2='7.98e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-09-24 13:16:11.958112', photon_index_error2='3.60', photon_index2='3.61', ts='1.71', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.05', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='8.48e-08', energy_flux_error2='8.47e-06', EG='0.94', time_epoch_completed='1790280971.96', return_code='0', job_id='39004881', GAL2='1.11', EG2='0.86', return_code2='102', energy_flux_error='1.18e-05', photon_flux_error2='7.00e-08', ts2='3.62', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2208' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Thu Sep 24 13:16:12 PDT 2026 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8224.38427673 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.492e+00 5.753e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.053e+00 1.587e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 9.447e-01 1.663e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.19 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.47e-08 +/- 2.58e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.13e-05 +/- 1.18e-05 TS (Fixed Index): 1.71 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 8.48287910659e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.006458011502 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/39004896/likelihoodResults_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 8223.55105438 delta logL = 0.833222349054 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509828 delta logL = 0.859178449497 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .66750 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 3.6055 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .86437 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1063 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 8223.525 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 55 CALLS 262 TOTAL EDM= .82E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .66692 5.0585 .63387E-03 .13241E-01 2 Index 3.6062 1.7698 .10435 .23336E-03 3 Normalizat .86419 .40047E-01 .44445E-01 .22397E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .39013E-01 .53704E-01 .66112E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0.666921 Index = 3.60618 Normalizat = 0.864194 Prefactor = 1.10654 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8223.525 FROM HESSE STATUS=NOT POSDEF 33 CALLS 295 TOTAL EDM= .76E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .66692 11.616 .43259E-05 -1.5692 2 Index 3.6062 3.2744 .36264E-02 -.28251 3 Normalizat .86419 .18910 .26663E-03 -.97730 4 Prefactor 1.1065 .17792 .23744E-03 -.89258 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 2 estimated distance: 7.61749e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 5.56673 2 3.60308 3 0.189243 4 0.178011 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8223.52509731 delta logL = 0.859179422505 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 6.669e-01 5.567e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 3.606e+00 3.603e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 1.107e+00 1.780e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 8.642e-01 1.892e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 3.62 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Free Index): 3.61 +/- 3.60 Photon Flux (Free Index): 7.98e-08 +/- 7.00e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.29e-05 +/- 8.47e-06 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/39004896/cmap_HighResolution_811641601_811900801_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2208.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='6.46e-03', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.47e-08', energy_flux2='1.29e-05', photon_flux_error='2.58e-08', dlogl='8.59e-01', energy_flux='1.13e-05', photon_flux2='7.98e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-09-24 13:16:21.642834', photon_index_error2='3.60', photon_index2='3.61', ts='1.71', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.05', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='8.48e-08', energy_flux_error2='8.47e-06', EG='0.94', time_epoch_completed='1790280981.64', return_code='0', job_id='39004896', GAL2='1.11', EG2='0.86', return_code2='102', energy_flux_error='1.18e-05', photon_flux_error2='7.00e-08', ts2='3.62', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2208' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Thu Sep 24 13:16:21 PDT 2026