********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 11259.58 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 25 CALLS 290 TOTAL EDM= .39E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor 5.6619 5.5735 .67505E-06 -1.5660 2 Index 2.1509 .55326 .34294E-03 -.60629 3 Normalizat 1.2490 .16214 .46517E-04 -.85102 4 Prefactor .73493 .15438 .11254E-04 -1.0217 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 3.91977e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 5.57346 2 0.554951 3 0.16221 4 0.154474 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11259.5839884 delta logL = 0.00239133024297 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.662e+00 5.573e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.151e+00 5.550e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.349e-01 1.545e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.249e+00 1.622e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 2.48 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.15 +/- 0.55 Photon Flux (Free Index): 2.35e-08 +/- 2.35e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.16e-05 +/- 1.14e-05 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/31530329/cmap_HighResolution_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='5.22e-03', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.44e-08', energy_flux2='1.16e-05', photon_flux_error='2.22e-08', dlogl='2.39e-03', energy_flux='1.12e-05', photon_flux2='2.35e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-13 07:09:40.862612', photon_index_error2='0.55', photon_index2='2.15', ts='2.47', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='0.74', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.86e-08', energy_flux_error2='1.14e-05', EG='1.25', time_epoch_completed='1783951780.86', return_code='0', job_id='31530329', GAL2='0.73', EG2='1.25', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='1.02e-05', photon_flux_error2='2.35e-08', ts2='2.48', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2179' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Mon Jul 13 07:09:40 PDT 2026 /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/pyfits/__init__.py:22: PyFITSDeprecationWarning: PyFITS is deprecated, please use astropy.io.fits PyFITSDeprecationWarning) # noqa Likelihood Analysis Tool Support Contact: Daniel Kocevski (daniel.kocevski@nasa.gov) Importing modules... This is make3FGLxml version 01r0. The default diffuse model files and names are for pass 8 and assume you have v10r00p05 of the Fermi Science Tools or higher. This is make4FGLDR3xml version 01r09. The default diffuse model files and names are for P8R3, 4FGL DRs, and the default fermitools directory locations. WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/matplotlib/cbook/deprecation.py:106: MatplotlibDeprecationWarning: The mpl_toolkits.axes_grid module was deprecated in version 2.1. Use mpl_toolkits.axes_grid1 and mpl_toolkits.axisartist provies the same functionality instead. warnings.warn(message, mplDeprecation, stacklevel=1) WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11259.5863798 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.441e+00 4.939e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.356e-01 1.295e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.248e+00 1.410e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 2.47 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.19 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.44e-08 +/- 2.22e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.12e-05 +/- 1.02e-05 TS (Fixed Index): 2.47 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.85658221405e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00521991251394 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/31530271/likelihoodResults_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11259.5848571 delta logL = 0.00152269436694 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11259.5839885 delta logL = 0.0023912755114 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' 5.6623 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 2.1507 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' 1.2490 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .73494 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 11259.58 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 91 CALLS 265 TOTAL EDM= .45E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor 5.6619 5.8918 .16876E-04 .79571E-02 2 Index 2.1509 .58483 .85735E-02 .16132E-03 3 Normalizat 1.2490 .16213 .23258E-03 -.25848E-03 4 Prefactor .73493 .15432 .28136E-03 -.25577E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 5.6619 Index = 2.15087 Normalizat = 1.249 Prefactor = 0.734934 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 11259.59 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 704 CALLS 4907 TOTAL EDM= .18E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .11102E-09 1.2417 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .43576E-07 4.4190 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .55511E-09 18.784 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 Prefactor 20.254 12.223 .22198E-03 -1.5618 5 norm .30087E-07 6.6668 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .16820E-07 4.1810 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor .27351 3.8771 .61065E-02 -1.5698 8 norm 7.0207 5.6854 .37761E-03 -1.5655 9 Prefactor .33307E-09 32.768 .16955E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 10 Prefactor 5.4415 4.9394 .43029E-03 -1.5661 11 Prefactor 22.628 16.550 .21005E-03 -1.5613 12 Prefactor .11491E-06 5.9196 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 13 Prefactor 2.6293 1.9073 .62855E-03 -1.5676 14 norm .0000 2.9847 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .0000 .24209E-01 .77320E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 norm .55511E-10 3.0565 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor .16653E-09 69.193 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 18 Prefactor 3.4326 2.6155 .54569E-03 -1.5671 19 Prefactor 4.0017 3.8496 .50392E-03 -1.5668 20 norm 7.6811 12.985 .36149E-03 -1.5653 21 Prefactor .0000 .67715 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 22 Prefactor 1.8625 .81179 .76316E-03 -1.5681 23 Prefactor 1.4748 2.5119 .88323E-03 -1.5684 24 Prefactor 1.0600 1.0352 .11905E-02 -1.5687 25 Prefactor 33.772 10.222 .17207E-03 -1.5592 26 norm 1.9436 1.1182 .74428E-03 -1.5680 27 norm 1.2108 .76466 .10279E-02 -1.5686 28 Prefactor 4.6360 4.6832 .46685E-03 -1.5665 29 norm .45422E-01 .34929 .20659E-02 -1.5704 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 30 Normalizat 1.2478 .14099 .52624E-01 -.85138 31 Prefactor .73564 .12942 .63576E-01 -1.0215 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.79461e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 2.50696e-05 2 0.000877753 3 0.000204062 4 12.2233 5 0.000895636 6 0.000530466 7 2.05956 8 5.68543 9 0.000204499 10 4.93936 11 16.5496 12 0.00164938 13 1.90727 14 2.87146e-06 15 3.2426e-08 16 1.88754e-05 17 0.000211901 18 2.61547 19 3.84961 20 12.9853 21 6.85539e-06 22 0.811793 23 2.51193 24 1.03525 25 10.2223 26 1.11821 27 0.76466 28 4.68321 29 0.251916 30 0.141034 31 0.129471 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 11259.58 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 25 CALLS 290 TOTAL EDM= .39E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor 5.6619 5.5735 .67505E-06 -1.5660 2 Index 2.1509 .55326 .34294E-03 -.60629 3 Normalizat 1.2490 .16214 .46517E-04 -.85102 4 Prefactor .73493 .15438 .11254E-04 -1.0217 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 3.91977e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 5.57346 2 0.554951 3 0.16221 4 0.154474 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 11259.59 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 704 CALLS 4907 TOTAL EDM= .18E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .11102E-09 1.2417 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .43576E-07 4.4190 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .55511E-09 18.784 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 Prefactor 20.254 12.223 .22198E-03 -1.5618 5 norm .30087E-07 6.6668 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .16820E-07 4.1810 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor .27351 3.8771 .61065E-02 -1.5698 8 norm 7.0207 5.6854 .37761E-03 -1.5655 9 Prefactor .33307E-09 32.768 .16955E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 10 Prefactor 5.4415 4.9394 .43029E-03 -1.5661 11 Prefactor 22.628 16.550 .21005E-03 -1.5613 12 Prefactor .11491E-06 5.9196 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 13 Prefactor 2.6293 1.9073 .62855E-03 -1.5676 14 norm .0000 2.9847 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .0000 .24209E-01 .77320E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 norm .55511E-10 3.0565 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor .16653E-09 69.193 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 18 Prefactor 3.4326 2.6155 .54569E-03 -1.5671 19 Prefactor 4.0017 3.8496 .50392E-03 -1.5668 20 norm 7.6811 12.985 .36149E-03 -1.5653 21 Prefactor .0000 .67715 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 22 Prefactor 1.8625 .81179 .76316E-03 -1.5681 23 Prefactor 1.4748 2.5119 .88323E-03 -1.5684 24 Prefactor 1.0600 1.0352 .11905E-02 -1.5687 25 Prefactor 33.772 10.222 .17207E-03 -1.5592 26 norm 1.9436 1.1182 .74428E-03 -1.5680 27 norm 1.2108 .76466 .10279E-02 -1.5686 28 Prefactor 4.6360 4.6832 .46685E-03 -1.5665 29 norm .45422E-01 .34929 .20659E-02 -1.5704 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 30 Normalizat 1.2478 .14099 .52624E-01 -.85138 31 Prefactor .73564 .12942 .63576E-01 -1.0215 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.79461e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 2.50696e-05 2 0.000877753 3 0.000204062 4 12.2233 5 0.000895636 6 0.000530466 7 2.05956 8 5.68543 9 0.000204499 10 4.93936 11 16.5496 12 0.00164938 13 1.90727 14 2.87146e-06 15 3.2426e-08 16 1.88754e-05 17 0.000211901 18 2.61547 19 3.84961 20 12.9853 21 6.85539e-06 22 0.811793 23 2.51193 24 1.03525 25 10.2223 26 1.11821 27 0.76466 28 4.68321 29 0.251916 30 0.141034 31 0.129471 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11259.5839884 delta logL = 0.00239133024297 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.662e+00 5.573e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.151e+00 5.550e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.349e-01 1.545e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.249e+00 1.622e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 2.48 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.15 +/- 0.55 Photon Flux (Free Index): 2.35e-08 +/- 2.35e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.16e-05 +/- 1.14e-05 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/31530271/cmap_HighResolution_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='5.22e-03', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.44e-08', energy_flux2='1.16e-05', photon_flux_error='2.22e-08', dlogl='2.39e-03', energy_flux='1.12e-05', photon_flux2='2.35e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-13 07:10:08.788307', photon_index_error2='0.55', photon_index2='2.15', ts='2.47', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='0.74', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.86e-08', energy_flux_error2='1.14e-05', EG='1.25', time_epoch_completed='1783951808.79', return_code='0', job_id='31530271', GAL2='0.73', EG2='1.25', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='1.02e-05', photon_flux_error2='2.35e-08', ts2='2.48', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2179' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Mon Jul 13 07:10:08 PDT 2026 number of points = 7654 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179 RA = 243.922, Dec = 47.2028 tmin = 804124801, tmax = 804384001 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='31530722', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2026-07-13 07:09:45.369777', time_epoch_executed='1783951785.37' WHERE source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' and cadence='daily' and bin_id='2179' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/31530722 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/31530722/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=804124801.0 && nMetStart<804384001.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=804124801.0 && nMetStart<804384001.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 47 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft1_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=804124801.0 && nMetStart<804384001.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 47 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft1_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits ra=243.922 dec=47.2028 rad=12.0 tmin=804124801.0 tmax=804384001.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 1.65 user 1.33 sys 0.16 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 0.55 user 0.19 sys 0.16 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 1046 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits sctable="SC_DATA" oL_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/31530449/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits.....................! real 28.97 user 27.51 sys 1.14 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/31530449/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/31530449/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/31530449/expmap_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/31530449/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/31530449/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1615.6+4712' 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 1.421e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31530449/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31530449/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/31530449/expmap_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/31530449/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/31530449/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11259.5954251 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11259.5869216 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .36082E-08 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .90089E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' .54043E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' 20.307 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .24932E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .41570E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' .27901 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' 7.0488 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' .21267E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' 5.4474 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' 22.676 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' .19987E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 2.6299 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .34323E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' .63838E-08 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'norm ' .61696E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' .18400E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 3.4327 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' 4.0015 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' 7.6852 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .91593E-08 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' 1.8626 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' 1.4769 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 1.0599 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Prefactor ' 33.784 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 26 'norm ' 1.9437 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 27 'norm ' 1.2106 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 28 'Prefactor ' 4.6428 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 29 'norm ' .45562E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 30 'Normalizat' 1.2474 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 31 'Prefactor ' .73571 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 11259.59 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 193 CALLS 4203 TOTAL EDM= .14E-08 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .11102E-09 1.2455 .19785E-06** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .43576E-07 3.4665 -.29814E-05** at limit ** 3 Prefactor .55511E-09 18.659 .25720E-07** at limit ** 4 Prefactor 20.254 10.663 .13479E-05 -.36638E-01 5 norm .30087E-07 6.0945 .16458E-05** at limit ** 6 Prefactor .16820E-07 3.8974 .21053E-05** at limit ** 7 Prefactor .27351 1.1760 .52093E-06 .12774E-02 8 norm 7.0207 4.4996 .62217E-07 -.39908E-02 9 Prefactor .33307E-09 32.944 -.41880E-06** at limit ** 10 Prefactor 5.4415 4.3841 .12386E-06 -.15826E-02 11 Prefactor 22.628 1.3594 -.11893E-06 .11554E-01 12 Prefactor .11491E-06 3.5828 -.96846E-06** at limit ** 13 Prefactor 2.6293 1.8971 .17597E-08 -.56179E-02 14 norm .0000 2.9623 .60513E-06** at limit ** 15 norm .0000 .29311E-01 -.40583E-08** at limit ** 16 norm .55511E-10 3.0276 -.39560E-06** at limit ** 17 Prefactor .16653E-09 69.931 -.27422E-05** at limit ** 18 Prefactor 3.4326 2.6011 .75241E-07 .44894E-03 19 Prefactor 4.0017 3.8319 .13678E-06 .14215E-02 20 norm 7.6811 1.5350 .38134E-06 -.85217E-02 21 Prefactor .0000 .69032 .71006E-07** at limit ** 22 Prefactor 1.8625 .78945 -.36481E-07 .48991E-01 23 Prefactor 1.4748 2.3912 -.16559E-08 -.31681E-02 24 Prefactor 1.0600 1.0470 .14881E-07 .71064E-02 25 Prefactor 33.772 1.7653 -.87858E-07 -.58379E-02 26 norm 1.9436 1.1154 .37773E-07 -.10462E-01 27 norm 1.2108 .73604 .10966E-06 .18986E-01 28 Prefactor 4.6360 4.5903 .16103E-06 -.99080E-03 29 norm .45422E-01 1.4705 -.32736E-06** at limit ** 30 Normalizat 1.2478 .16996 -.75452E-06 .98750E-03 31 Prefactor .73564 .15592 -.27950E-05 .62039E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 1.11022e-10 Prefactor = 4.35763e-08 Prefactor = 5.55112e-10 Prefactor = 20.2537 norm = 3.0087e-08 Prefactor = 1.68199e-08 Prefactor = 0.273513 norm = 7.02067 Prefactor = 3.33067e-10 Prefactor = 5.44146 Prefactor = 22.6283 Prefactor = 1.14908e-07 Prefactor = 2.62932 norm = 0 norm = 0 norm = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 1.66533e-10 Prefactor = 3.4326 Prefactor = 4.00167 norm = 7.68109 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 1.86252 Prefactor = 1.4748 Prefactor = 1.06001 Prefactor = 33.7717 norm = 1.94358 norm = 1.21078 Prefactor = 4.63598 norm = 0.0454216 Normalizat = 1.24782 Prefactor = 0.735639 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11259.5863798 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.441e+00 4.939e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.356e-01 1.295e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.248e+00 1.410e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 2.47 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.19 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.44e-08 +/- 2.22e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.12e-05 +/- 1.02e-05 TS (Fixed Index): 2.47 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.85658221405e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00521991251394 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/31530355/likelihoodResults_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11259.5848571 delta logL = 0.00152269436694 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11259.5839885 delta logL = 0.0023912755114 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' 5.6623 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 2.1507 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' 1.2490 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .73494 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 11259.58 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 91 CALLS 265 TOTAL EDM= .45E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor 5.6619 5.8918 .16876E-04 .79571E-02 2 Index 2.1509 .58483 .85735E-02 .16132E-03 3 Normalizat 1.2490 .16213 .23258E-03 -.25848E-03 4 Prefactor .73493 .15432 .28136E-03 -.25577E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 5.6619 Index = 2.15087 Normalizat = 1.249 Prefactor = 0.734934 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 11259.58 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 25 CALLS 290 TOTAL EDM= .39E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor 5.6619 5.5735 .67505E-06 -1.5660 2 Index 2.1509 .55326 .34294E-03 -.60629 3 Normalizat 1.2490 .16214 .46517E-04 -.85102 4 Prefactor .73493 .15438 .11254E-04 -1.0217 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 3.91977e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 5.57346 2 0.554951 3 0.16221 4 0.154474 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11259.5839884 delta logL = 0.00239133024297 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.662e+00 5.573e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.151e+00 5.550e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.349e-01 1.545e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.249e+00 1.622e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 2.48 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.15 +/- 0.55 Photon Flux (Free Index): 2.35e-08 +/- 2.35e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.16e-05 +/- 1.14e-05 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/31530355/cmap_HighResolution_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='5.22e-03', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.44e-08', energy_flux2='1.16e-05', photon_flux_error='2.22e-08', dlogl='2.39e-03', energy_flux='1.12e-05', photon_flux2='2.35e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-13 07:11:31.842698', photon_index_error2='0.55', photon_index2='2.15', ts='2.47', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='0.74', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.86e-08', energy_flux_error2='1.14e-05', EG='1.25', time_epoch_completed='1783951891.84', return_code='0', job_id='31530355', GAL2='0.73', EG2='1.25', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='1.02e-05', photon_flux_error2='2.35e-08', ts2='2.48', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2179' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Mon Jul 13 07:11:31 PDT 2026 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11259.5863798 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.441e+00 4.939e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.356e-01 1.295e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.248e+00 1.410e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 2.47 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.19 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.44e-08 +/- 2.22e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.12e-05 +/- 1.02e-05 TS (Fixed Index): 2.47 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.85658221405e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00521991251394 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/31530316/likelihoodResults_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11259.5848571 delta logL = 0.00152269436694 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11259.5839885 delta logL = 0.0023912755114 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' 5.6623 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 2.1507 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' 1.2490 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .73494 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 11259.58 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 91 CALLS 265 TOTAL EDM= .45E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor 5.6619 5.8918 .16876E-04 .79571E-02 2 Index 2.1509 .58483 .85735E-02 .16132E-03 3 Normalizat 1.2490 .16213 .23258E-03 -.25848E-03 4 Prefactor .73493 .15432 .28136E-03 -.25577E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 5.6619 Index = 2.15087 Normalizat = 1.249 Prefactor = 0.734934 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 11259.58 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 25 CALLS 290 TOTAL EDM= .39E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor 5.6619 5.5735 .67505E-06 -1.5660 2 Index 2.1509 .55326 .34294E-03 -.60629 3 Normalizat 1.2490 .16214 .46517E-04 -.85102 4 Prefactor .73493 .15438 .11254E-04 -1.0217 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 3.91977e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 5.57346 2 0.554951 3 0.16221 4 0.154474 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11259.5839884 delta logL = 0.00239133024297 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.662e+00 5.573e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.151e+00 5.550e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.349e-01 1.545e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.249e+00 1.622e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 2.48 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.15 +/- 0.55 Photon Flux (Free Index): 2.35e-08 +/- 2.35e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.16e-05 +/- 1.14e-05 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/31530316/cmap_HighResolution_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='5.22e-03', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.44e-08', energy_flux2='1.16e-05', photon_flux_error='2.22e-08', dlogl='2.39e-03', energy_flux='1.12e-05', photon_flux2='2.35e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-13 07:11:39.199751', photon_index_error2='0.55', photon_index2='2.15', ts='2.47', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='0.74', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.86e-08', energy_flux_error2='1.14e-05', EG='1.25', time_epoch_completed='1783951899.2', return_code='0', job_id='31530316', GAL2='0.73', EG2='1.25', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='1.02e-05', photon_flux_error2='2.35e-08', ts2='2.48', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2179' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Mon Jul 13 07:11:39 PDT 2026 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 11259.59 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 704 CALLS 4907 TOTAL EDM= .18E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .11102E-09 1.2417 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .43576E-07 4.4190 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .55511E-09 18.784 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 Prefactor 20.254 12.223 .22198E-03 -1.5618 5 norm .30087E-07 6.6668 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .16820E-07 4.1810 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor .27351 3.8771 .61065E-02 -1.5698 8 norm 7.0207 5.6854 .37761E-03 -1.5655 9 Prefactor .33307E-09 32.768 .16955E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 10 Prefactor 5.4415 4.9394 .43029E-03 -1.5661 11 Prefactor 22.628 16.550 .21005E-03 -1.5613 12 Prefactor .11491E-06 5.9196 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 13 Prefactor 2.6293 1.9073 .62855E-03 -1.5676 14 norm .0000 2.9847 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .0000 .24209E-01 .77320E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 norm .55511E-10 3.0565 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor .16653E-09 69.193 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 18 Prefactor 3.4326 2.6155 .54569E-03 -1.5671 19 Prefactor 4.0017 3.8496 .50392E-03 -1.5668 20 norm 7.6811 12.985 .36149E-03 -1.5653 21 Prefactor .0000 .67715 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 22 Prefactor 1.8625 .81179 .76316E-03 -1.5681 23 Prefactor 1.4748 2.5119 .88323E-03 -1.5684 24 Prefactor 1.0600 1.0352 .11905E-02 -1.5687 25 Prefactor 33.772 10.222 .17207E-03 -1.5592 26 norm 1.9436 1.1182 .74428E-03 -1.5680 27 norm 1.2108 .76466 .10279E-02 -1.5686 28 Prefactor 4.6360 4.6832 .46685E-03 -1.5665 29 norm .45422E-01 .34929 .20659E-02 -1.5704 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 30 Normalizat 1.2478 .14099 .52624E-01 -.85138 31 Prefactor .73564 .12942 .63576E-01 -1.0215 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.79461e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 2.50696e-05 2 0.000877753 3 0.000204062 4 12.2233 5 0.000895636 6 0.000530466 7 2.05956 8 5.68543 9 0.000204499 10 4.93936 11 16.5496 12 0.00164938 13 1.90727 14 2.87146e-06 15 3.2426e-08 16 1.88754e-05 17 0.000211901 18 2.61547 19 3.84961 20 12.9853 21 6.85539e-06 22 0.811793 23 2.51193 24 1.03525 25 10.2223 26 1.11821 27 0.76466 28 4.68321 29 0.251916 30 0.141034 31 0.129471 utfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits .....................! real 8.64 user 8.17 sys 0.22 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/expmap_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits .....................! real 69.61 user 64.87 sys 4.14 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 211 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J1615.6+4712 @ 243.922 47.2028 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/cmap_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=243.922 yref=47.2028 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.63 user 0.24 sys 0.13 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/cmap_HighResolution_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=243.922 yref=47.2028 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.64 user 0.25 sys 0.13 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding source GADone. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11259.5863798 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.441e+00 4.939e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.356e-01 1.295e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.248e+00 1.410e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 2.47 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.19 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.44e-08 +/- 2.22e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.12e-05 +/- 1.02e-05 TS (Fixed Index): 2.47 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.85658221405e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00521991251394 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/31530449/likelihoodResults_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11259.5848571 delta logL = 0.00152269436694 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11259.5839885 delta logL = 0.0023912755114 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' 5.6623 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 2.1507 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' 1.2490 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .73494 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 11259.58 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 91 CALLS 265 TOTAL EDM= .45E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor 5.6619 5.8918 .16876E-04 .79571E-02 2 Index 2.1509 .58483 .85735E-02 .16132E-03 3 Normalizat 1.2490 .16213 .23258E-03 -.25848E-03 4 Prefactor .73493 .15432 .28136E-03 -.25577E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 5.6619 Index = 2.15087 Normalizat = 1.249 Prefactor = 0.734934 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 11259.58 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 25 CALLS 290 TOTAL EDM= .39E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor 5.6619 5.5735 .67505E-06 -1.5660 2 Index 2.1509 .55326 .34294E-03 -.60629 3 Normalizat 1.2490 .16214 .46517E-04 -.85102 4 Prefactor .73493 .15438 .11254E-04 -1.0217 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 3.91977e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 5.57346 2 0.554951 3 0.16221 4 0.154474 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11259.5839884 delta logL = 0.00239133024297 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.662e+00 5.573e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.151e+00 5.550e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.349e-01 1.545e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.249e+00 1.622e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 2.48 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.15 +/- 0.55 Photon Flux (Free Index): 2.35e-08 +/- 2.35e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.16e-05 +/- 1.14e-05 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/31530449/cmap_HighResolution_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='5.22e-03', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.44e-08', energy_flux2='1.16e-05', photon_flux_error='2.22e-08', dlogl='2.39e-03', energy_flux='1.12e-05', photon_flux2='2.35e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-13 07:13:20.812391', photon_index_error2='0.55', photon_index2='2.15', ts='2.47', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='0.74', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.86e-08', energy_flux_error2='1.14e-05', EG='1.25', time_epoch_completed='1783952000.81', return_code='0', job_id='31530449', GAL2='0.73', EG2='1.25', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='1.02e-05', photon_flux_error2='2.35e-08', ts2='2.48', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2179' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Mon Jul 13 07:13:20 PDT 2026 L_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits.....................! real 34.07 user 32.25 sys 1.19 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/expmap_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/31530722/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1615.6+4712' 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 1.421e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/31530722/expmap_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/31530722/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/31530722/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11259.5954251 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11259.5869216 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .36082E-08 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .90089E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' .54043E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' 20.307 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .24932E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .41570E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'Prefactor ' .27901 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' 7.0488 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' .21267E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' 5.4474 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' 22.676 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' .19987E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 2.6299 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .34323E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' .63838E-08 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'norm ' .61696E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' .18400E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 3.4327 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' 4.0015 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' 7.6852 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .91593E-08 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' 1.8626 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' 1.4769 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 1.0599 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Prefactor ' 33.784 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 26 'norm ' 1.9437 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 27 'norm ' 1.2106 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 28 'Prefactor ' 4.6428 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 29 'norm ' .45562E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 30 'Normalizat' 1.2474 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 31 'Prefactor ' .73571 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 11259.59 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 193 CALLS 4203 TOTAL EDM= .14E-08 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .11102E-09 1.2455 .19785E-06** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .43576E-07 3.4665 -.29814E-05** at limit ** 3 Prefactor .55511E-09 18.659 .25720E-07** at limit ** 4 Prefactor 20.254 10.663 .13479E-05 -.36638E-01 5 norm .30087E-07 6.0945 .16458E-05** at limit ** 6 Prefactor .16820E-07 3.8974 .21053E-05** at limit ** 7 Prefactor .27351 1.1760 .52093E-06 .12774E-02 8 norm 7.0207 4.4996 .62217E-07 -.39908E-02 9 Prefactor .33307E-09 32.944 -.41880E-06** at limit ** 10 Prefactor 5.4415 4.3841 .12386E-06 -.15826E-02 11 Prefactor 22.628 1.3594 -.11893E-06 .11554E-01 12 Prefactor .11491E-06 3.5828 -.96846E-06** at limit ** 13 Prefactor 2.6293 1.8971 .17597E-08 -.56179E-02 14 norm .0000 2.9623 .60513E-06** at limit ** 15 norm .0000 .29311E-01 -.40583E-08** at limit ** 16 norm .55511E-10 3.0276 -.39560E-06** at limit ** 17 Prefactor .16653E-09 69.931 -.27422E-05** at limit ** 18 Prefactor 3.4326 2.6011 .75241E-07 .44894E-03 19 Prefactor 4.0017 3.8319 .13678E-06 .14215E-02 20 norm 7.6811 1.5350 .38134E-06 -.85217E-02 21 Prefactor .0000 .69032 .71006E-07** at limit ** 22 Prefactor 1.8625 .78945 -.36481E-07 .48991E-01 23 Prefactor 1.4748 2.3912 -.16559E-08 -.31681E-02 24 Prefactor 1.0600 1.0470 .14881E-07 .71064E-02 25 Prefactor 33.772 1.7653 -.87858E-07 -.58379E-02 26 norm 1.9436 1.1154 .37773E-07 -.10462E-01 27 norm 1.2108 .73604 .10966E-06 .18986E-01 28 Prefactor 4.6360 4.5903 .16103E-06 -.99080E-03 29 norm .45422E-01 1.4705 -.32736E-06** at limit ** 30 Normalizat 1.2478 .16996 -.75452E-06 .98750E-03 31 Prefactor .73564 .15592 -.27950E-05 .62039E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 1.11022e-10 Prefactor = 4.35763e-08 Prefactor = 5.55112e-10 Prefactor = 20.2537 norm = 3.0087e-08 Prefactor = 1.68199e-08 Prefactor = 0.273513 norm = 7.02067 Prefactor = 3.33067e-10 Prefactor = 5.44146 Prefactor = 22.6283 Prefactor = 1.14908e-07 Prefactor = 2.62932 norm = 0 norm = 0 norm = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 1.66533e-10 Prefactor = 3.4326 Prefactor = 4.00167 norm = 7.68109 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 1.86252 Prefactor = 1.4748 Prefactor = 1.06001 Prefactor = 33.7717 norm = 1.94358 norm = 1.21078 Prefactor = 4.63598 norm = 0.0454216 Normalizat = 1.24782 Prefactor = 0.735639 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 11259.59 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 704 CALLS 4907 TOTAL EDM= .18E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .11102E-09 1.2417 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .43576E-07 4.4190 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .55511E-09 18.784 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 Prefactor 20.254 12.223 .22198E-03 -1.5618 5 norm .30087E-07 6.6668 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .16820E-07 4.1810 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 Prefactor .27351 3.8771 .61065E-02 -1.5698 8 norm 7.0207 5.6854 .37761E-03 -1.5655 9 Prefactor .33307E-09 32.768 .16955E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 10 Prefactor 5.4415 4.9394 .43029E-03 -1.5661 11 Prefactor 22.628 16.550 .21005E-03 -1.5613 12 Prefactor .11491E-06 5.9196 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 13 Prefactor 2.6293 1.9073 .62855E-03 -1.5676 14 norm .0000 2.9847 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm .0000 .24209E-01 .77320E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 16 norm .55511E-10 3.0565 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor .16653E-09 69.193 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 18 Prefactor 3.4326 2.6155 .54569E-03 -1.5671 19 Prefactor 4.0017 3.8496 .50392E-03 -1.5668 20 norm 7.6811 12.985 .36149E-03 -1.5653 21 Prefactor .0000 .67715 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 22 Prefactor 1.8625 .81179 .76316E-03 -1.5681 23 Prefactor 1.4748 2.5119 .88323E-03 -1.5684 24 Prefactor 1.0600 1.0352 .11905E-02 -1.5687 25 Prefactor 33.772 10.222 .17207E-03 -1.5592 26 norm 1.9436 1.1182 .74428E-03 -1.5680 27 norm 1.2108 .76466 .10279E-02 -1.5686 28 Prefactor 4.6360 4.6832 .46685E-03 -1.5665 29 norm .45422E-01 .34929 .20659E-02 -1.5704 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 30 Normalizat 1.2478 .14099 .52624E-01 -.85138 31 Prefactor .73564 .12942 .63576E-01 -1.0215 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.79461e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 2.50696e-05 2 0.000877753 3 0.000204062 4 12.2233 5 0.000895636 6 0.000530466 7 2.05956 8 5.68543 9 0.000204499 10 4.93936 11 16.5496 12 0.00164938 13 1.90727 14 2.87146e-06 15 3.2426e-08 16 1.88754e-05 17 0.000211901 18 2.61547 19 3.84961 20 12.9853 21 6.85539e-06 22 0.811793 23 2.51193 24 1.03525 25 10.2223 26 1.11821 27 0.76466 28 4.68321 29 0.251916 30 0.141034 31 0.129471 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 11259.5863798 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.441e+00 4.939e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.189e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.356e-01 1.295e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.248e+00 1.410e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 2.47 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.19 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 2.44e-08 +/- 2.22e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 1.12e-05 +/- 1.02e-05 TS (Fixed Index): 2.47 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.85658221405e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00521991251394 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/31530722/likelihoodResults_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11259.5848571 delta logL = 0.00152269436694 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11259.5839885 delta logL = 0.0023912755114 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' 5.6623 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 2.1507 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' 1.2490 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .73494 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6760E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 11259.58 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 91 CALLS 265 TOTAL EDM= .45E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor 5.6619 5.8918 .16876E-04 .79571E-02 2 Index 2.1509 .58483 .85735E-02 .16132E-03 3 Normalizat 1.2490 .16213 .23258E-03 -.25848E-03 4 Prefactor .73493 .15432 .28136E-03 -.25577E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 5.6619 Index = 2.15087 Normalizat = 1.249 Prefactor = 0.734934 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 11259.58 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 25 CALLS 290 TOTAL EDM= .39E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor 5.6619 5.5735 .67505E-06 -1.5660 2 Index 2.1509 .55326 .34294E-03 -.60629 3 Normalizat 1.2490 .16214 .46517E-04 -.85102 4 Prefactor .73493 .15438 .11254E-04 -1.0217 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 3.91977e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 5.57346 2 0.554951 3 0.16221 4 0.154474 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 11259.5839884 delta logL = 0.00239133024297 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+4712 Spectrum: PowerLaw 300 Prefactor: 5.662e+00 5.573e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 301 Index: 2.151e+00 5.550e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 302 Scale: 1.761e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 673 Prefactor: 7.349e-01 1.545e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 674 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 675 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 672 Normalization: 1.249e+00 1.622e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 2.48 Ra Dec: 243.922 47.203 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.15 +/- 0.55 Photon Flux (Free Index): 2.35e-08 +/- 2.35e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 1.16e-05 +/- 1.14e-05 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/31530722/cmap_HighResolution_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J1615.6+4712_daily_bin2179.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='5.22e-03', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='2.44e-08', energy_flux2='1.16e-05', photon_flux_error='2.22e-08', dlogl='2.39e-03', energy_flux='1.12e-05', photon_flux2='2.35e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-13 07:20:34.952404', photon_index_error2='0.55', photon_index2='2.15', ts='2.47', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='0.74', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.86e-08', energy_flux_error2='1.14e-05', EG='1.25', time_epoch_completed='1783952434.95', return_code='0', job_id='31530722', GAL2='0.73', EG2='1.25', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='1.02e-05', photon_flux_error2='2.35e-08', ts2='2.48', photon_index='2.19' WHERE bin_id='2179' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+4712' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Mon Jul 13 07:20:35 PDT 2026