/sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/pyfits/__init__.py:22: PyFITSDeprecationWarning: PyFITS is deprecated, please use astropy.io.fits PyFITSDeprecationWarning) # noqa Likelihood Analysis Tool Support Contact: Daniel Kocevski (daniel.kocevski@nasa.gov) Importing modules... This is make3FGLxml version 01r0. The default diffuse model files and names are for pass 8 and assume you have v10r00p05 of the Fermi Science Tools or higher. This is make4FGLDR3xml version 01r09. The default diffuse model files and names are for P8R3, 4FGL DRs, and the default fermitools directory locations. WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/matplotlib/cbook/deprecation.py:106: MatplotlibDeprecationWarning: The mpl_toolkits.axes_grid module was deprecated in version 2.1. Use mpl_toolkits.axes_grid1 and mpl_toolkits.axisartist provies the same functionality instead. warnings.warn(message, mplDeprecation, stacklevel=1) WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 31165.5081841 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+2130 Spectrum: PowerLaw 274 Prefactor: 4.441e-10 6.334e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 275 Index: 2.755e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 276 Scale: 4.684e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 570 Prefactor: 9.979e-01 5.350e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 571 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 572 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 569 Normalization: 9.399e-01 1.004e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 243.913 21.506 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 2.83460905234e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00223848553527 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/34175363/likelihoodResults_806889601_807494401_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 31164.7372238 delta logL = 0.770960299767 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 31164.7086318 delta logL = 0.799552258592 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .60315 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 1.2636 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .94151 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99613 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .5730E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 31164.71 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 54 CALLS 229 TOTAL EDM= .90E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .60298 .76231 .68946E-03 -.44442E-02 2 Index 1.2636 .30400 .33276 -.31852E-03 3 Normalizat .94148 .97506E-01 .75710E-01 .99665E-04 4 Prefactor .99615 .53075E-01 .46219E-01 .47313E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0.602983 Index = 1.26364 Normalizat = 0.941476 Prefactor = 0.996149 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 31164.71 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 33 CALLS 262 TOTAL EDM= .91E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .60298 1.1061 .16894E-04 -1.5692 2 Index 1.2636 .61329 .15770E-01 -.84395 3 Normalizat .94148 .11608 .33505E-03 -.95018 4 Prefactor .99615 .63290E-01 .17685E-03 -.92858 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 9.12495e-11 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.10614 2 0.616827 3 0.116106 4 0.0632944 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 31164.7086317 delta logL = 0.799552342771 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+2130 Spectrum: PowerLaw 274 Prefactor: 6.030e-01 1.106e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 275 Index: 1.264e+00 6.168e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 276 Scale: 4.684e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 570 Prefactor: 9.961e-01 6.329e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 571 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 572 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 569 Normalization: 9.415e-01 1.161e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 1.60 Ra Dec: 243.913 21.506 Photon Index (Free Index): 1.26 +/- 0.62 Photon Flux (Free Index): 1.35e-09 +/- 1.99e-09 Energy Flux (Free Index): 9.27e-06 +/- 1.58e-05 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/34175363/cmap_HighResolution_806889601_807494401_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.24e-03', comment='SUCCESS', energy_flux2='9.27e-06', dlogl='8.00e-01', photon_flux2='1.35e-09', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-08-04 13:47:05.843558', photon_index_error2='0.62', photon_index2='1.26', ts='-0.00', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='2.83e-08', energy_flux_error2='1.58e-05', EG='0.94', time_epoch_completed='1785876425.84', return_code='0', job_id='34175363', GAL2='1.00', EG2='0.94', return_code2='0', photon_flux_error2='1.99e-09', ts2='1.60', photon_index='2.76' WHERE bin_id='939' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+2130' AND cadence='weekly'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Aug 4 13:47:06 PDT 2026 number of points = 17478 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939 RA = 243.913, Dec = 21.5064 tmin = 806889601, tmax = 807494401 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='34176124', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2026-08-04 13:46:01.801092', time_epoch_executed='1785876361.8' WHERE source_name='4FGL J1615.6+2130' and cadence='weekly' and bin_id='939' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/34176124 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/34176124/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=806889601.0 && nMetStart<807494401.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=806889601.0 && nMetStart<807494401.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 108 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft1_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=806889601.0 && nMetStart<807494401.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 108 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft1_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits ra=243.913 dec=21.5064 rad=12.0 tmin=806889601.0 tmax=807494401.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 3.99 user 3.22 sys 0.22 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 0.91 user 0.19 sys 0.13 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 2923 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits sctable="SC_DATA" outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ltcube_806889601_807494401_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits .....................! real 16.97 user 16.15 sys 0.20 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ltcube_806889601_807494401_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/expmap_806889601_807494401_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ltcube_806889601_807494401_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits .....................! real 61.99 user 57.29 sys 3.63 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 175 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J1615.6+2130 @ 243.913 21.5064 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/cmap_806889601_807494401_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=243.913 yref=21.5064 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.89 user 0.22 sys 0.13 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/cmap_HighResolution_806889601_807494401_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=243.913 yref=21.5064 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 1.00 user 0.23 sys 0.12 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits.....................! real 72.09 user 69.95 sys 0.91 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/expmap_806889601_807494401_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ltcube_806889601_807494401_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/34176124/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1615.6+2130' 4FGL J1615.6+2130 Spectrum: PowerLaw 274 Prefactor: 3.532e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 275 Index: 2.755e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 276 Scale: 4.684e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ft2_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/34176124/expmap_806889601_807494401_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/34176124/ltcube_806889601_807494401_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/34176124/Model_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 31165.528808 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 31165.5096202 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .43854E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' 8.7622 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'norm ' 2.9129 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' 3.6872 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' 3.3921 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' 1.3048 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' 107.03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' .10869E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 25.323 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' 8.0152 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' 3.2287 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 6.9332 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 48.174 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'Normalizat' .94014 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 15 'Prefactor ' .99794 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .5730E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 31165.51 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 86 CALLS 812 TOTAL EDM= .13E-08 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 2.3% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 .36810 .90457E-08** at limit ** 2 Prefactor 9.0491 10.952 .15720E-05 -.72851E-01 3 norm 2.9105 1.4800 -.55393E-06 -.60652E-02 4 norm 3.6867 3.4199 -.29889E-06 -.59655E-02 5 norm 3.3916 .87340 .39186E-06 .83377E-02 6 Prefactor 1.3054 1.6839 -.42553E-07 .40064E-02 7 norm 107.17 8.7066 .22634E-05 .30903 8 Prefactor .44409E-09 2.4207 .33269E-06** at limit ** 9 Prefactor 25.729 16.012 -.10482E-04 .74056E-01 10 Prefactor 8.0579 6.4789 .40664E-06 -.23657E-02 11 Prefactor 3.2317 2.9383 .84774E-06 -.16759E-02 12 Prefactor 7.0040 3.7760 -.52554E-05 -.49630E-01 13 Prefactor 47.220 23.176 -.54618E-05 .14833E-01 14 Normalizat .93987 .11900 -.29811E-04 .15379E-03 15 Prefactor .99787 .63762E-01 .16130E-04 .16996E-03 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 9.04907 norm = 2.91054 norm = 3.68672 norm = 3.39163 Prefactor = 1.30538 norm = 107.17 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 Prefactor = 25.7291 Prefactor = 8.05786 Prefactor = 3.23165 Prefactor = 7.00397 Prefactor = 47.2198 Normalizat = 0.939865 Prefactor = 0.997869 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 31165.51 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 218 CALLS 1030 TOTAL EDM= .15E-05 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 .36492 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor 9.0491 13.574 .33838E-03 -1.5648 3 norm 2.9105 1.4870 .59503E-03 -1.5674 4 norm 3.6867 3.4411 .52573E-03 -1.5670 5 norm 3.3916 .87361 .54909E-03 -1.5671 6 Prefactor 1.3054 1.7061 .96606E-03 -1.5685 7 norm 107.17 12.724 .96668E-04 -1.5501 8 Prefactor .44409E-09 2.4050 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor 25.729 17.197 .19876E-03 -1.5607 10 Prefactor 8.0579 6.4770 .35391E-03 -1.5651 11 Prefactor 3.2317 3.0827 .56350E-03 -1.5672 12 Prefactor 7.0040 14.387 .38078E-03 -1.5655 13 Prefactor 47.220 23.253 .14409E-03 -1.5571 14 Normalizat .93987 .10037 .75774E-01 -.95073 15 Prefactor .99787 .53497E-01 .46241E-01 -.92801 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.51415e-06 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 2.27792e-06 2 13.5742 3 1.48704 4 3.44111 5 0.873608 6 1.70613 7 12.7242 8 6.33392e-05 9 17.1966 10 6.47696 11 3.08266 12 14.3873 13 23.2528 14 0.100393 15 0.0534994 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 31165.5081841 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+2130 Spectrum: PowerLaw 274 Prefactor: 4.441e-10 6.334e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 275 Index: 2.755e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 276 Scale: 4.684e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 570 Prefactor: 9.979e-01 5.350e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 571 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 572 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 569 Normalization: 9.399e-01 1.004e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 243.913 21.506 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 2.83460905234e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00223848553527 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/34176124/likelihoodResults_806889601_807494401_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 31164.7372238 delta logL = 0.770960299767 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 31164.7086318 delta logL = 0.799552258592 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .60315 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 1.2636 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .94151 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99613 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .5730E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 31164.71 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 54 CALLS 229 TOTAL EDM= .90E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .60298 .76231 .68946E-03 -.44442E-02 2 Index 1.2636 .30400 .33276 -.31852E-03 3 Normalizat .94148 .97506E-01 .75710E-01 .99665E-04 4 Prefactor .99615 .53075E-01 .46219E-01 .47313E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0.602983 Index = 1.26364 Normalizat = 0.941476 Prefactor = 0.996149 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 31164.71 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 33 CALLS 262 TOTAL EDM= .91E-10 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .60298 1.1061 .16894E-04 -1.5692 2 Index 1.2636 .61329 .15770E-01 -.84395 3 Normalizat .94148 .11608 .33505E-03 -.95018 4 Prefactor .99615 .63290E-01 .17685E-03 -.92858 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 9.12495e-11 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.10614 2 0.616827 3 0.116106 4 0.0632944 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 31164.7086317 delta logL = 0.799552342771 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1615.6+2130 Spectrum: PowerLaw 274 Prefactor: 6.030e-01 1.106e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-12) 275 Index: 1.264e+00 6.168e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 276 Scale: 4.684e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 570 Prefactor: 9.961e-01 6.329e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 571 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 572 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 569 Normalization: 9.415e-01 1.161e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 1.60 Ra Dec: 243.913 21.506 Photon Index (Free Index): 1.26 +/- 0.62 Photon Flux (Free Index): 1.35e-09 +/- 1.99e-09 Energy Flux (Free Index): 9.27e-06 +/- 1.58e-05 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/34176124/cmap_HighResolution_806889601_807494401_4FGL_J1615.6+2130_weekly_bin939.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.24e-03', comment='SUCCESS', energy_flux2='9.27e-06', dlogl='8.00e-01', photon_flux2='1.35e-09', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-08-04 13:59:06.248983', photon_index_error2='0.62', photon_index2='1.26', ts='-0.00', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='1.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='2.83e-08', energy_flux_error2='1.58e-05', EG='0.94', time_epoch_completed='1785877146.25', return_code='0', job_id='34176124', GAL2='1.00', EG2='0.94', return_code2='0', photon_flux_error2='1.99e-09', ts2='1.60', photon_index='2.76' WHERE bin_id='939' AND source_name='4FGL J1615.6+2130' AND cadence='weekly'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Aug 4 13:59:06 PDT 2026