********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 7846.708 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 288 CALLS 1619 TOTAL EDM= .11E-07 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .0000 1.4968 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 norm 4.3858 4.4361 .47784E-03 -1.5666 3 Prefactor 11.549 14.330 .29379E-03 -1.5640 4 Prefactor .0000 6.7689 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 Prefactor .0000 3.4427 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 norm .32744 .19301 .63618E-03 -1.5697 7 norm .0000 2.4102 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 norm .17298 26.867 .16426E-01 -1.5700 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor .0000 16.246 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 10 Prefactor .0000 3.3814 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 11 Prefactor 20.997 22.923 .21914E-03 -1.5616 12 Prefactor .0000 .78630 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 13 Prefactor 49.073 41.231 .14281E-03 -1.5568 14 norm 3.1825 2.9866 .56753E-03 -1.5672 15 norm 12.094 14.987 .28822E-03 -1.5638 16 Prefactor 11.228 11.239 .29869E-03 -1.5641 17 Normalizat 1.0940 .19115 .68382E-01 -.89946 18 Prefactor .94080 .12113 .45522E-01 -.94730 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.10027e-08 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 3.63551e-06 2 4.43612 3 14.3303 4 1.32264e-06 5 3.06735e-06 6 0.193007 7 6.19323e-07 8 4.31157 9 7.23527e-06 10 2.67247e-06 11 22.9228 12 1.19374e-06 13 41.2311 14 2.98657 15 14.9875 16 11.2385 17 0.191271 18 0.121167 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 7846.708 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 288 CALLS 1619 TOTAL EDM= .11E-07 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .0000 1.4968 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 norm 4.3858 4.4361 .47784E-03 -1.5666 3 Prefactor 11.549 14.330 .29379E-03 -1.5640 4 Prefactor .0000 6.7689 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 Prefactor .0000 3.4427 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 norm .32744 .19301 .63618E-03 -1.5697 7 norm .0000 2.4102 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 norm .17298 26.867 .16426E-01 -1.5700 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor .0000 16.246 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 10 Prefactor .0000 3.3814 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 11 Prefactor 20.997 22.923 .21914E-03 -1.5616 12 Prefactor .0000 .78630 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 13 Prefactor 49.073 41.231 .14281E-03 -1.5568 14 norm 3.1825 2.9866 .56753E-03 -1.5672 15 norm 12.094 14.987 .28822E-03 -1.5638 16 Prefactor 11.228 11.239 .29869E-03 -1.5641 17 Normalizat 1.0940 .19115 .68382E-01 -.89946 18 Prefactor .94080 .12113 .45522E-01 -.94730 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.10027e-08 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 3.63551e-06 2 4.43612 3 14.3303 4 1.32264e-06 5 3.06735e-06 6 0.193007 7 6.19323e-07 8 4.31157 9 7.23527e-06 10 2.67247e-06 11 22.9228 12 1.19374e-06 13 41.2311 14 2.98657 15 14.9875 16 11.2385 17 0.191271 18 0.121167 /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/pyfits/__init__.py:22: PyFITSDeprecationWarning: PyFITS is deprecated, please use astropy.io.fits PyFITSDeprecationWarning) # noqa Likelihood Analysis Tool Support Contact: Daniel Kocevski (daniel.kocevski@nasa.gov) Importing modules... This is make3FGLxml version 01r0. The default diffuse model files and names are for pass 8 and assume you have v10r00p05 of the Fermi Science Tools or higher. This is make4FGLDR3xml version 01r09. The default diffuse model files and names are for P8R3, 4FGL DRs, and the default fermitools directory locations. WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/matplotlib/cbook/deprecation.py:106: MatplotlibDeprecationWarning: The mpl_toolkits.axes_grid module was deprecated in version 2.1. Use mpl_toolkits.axes_grid1 and mpl_toolkits.axisartist provies the same functionality instead. warnings.warn(message, mplDeprecation, stacklevel=1) Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 7846.70803414 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.9+1934 Spectrum: PowerLaw 225 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 7.235e-06 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 226 Index: 2.580e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 227 Scale: 7.139e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 500 Prefactor: 9.408e-01 1.212e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 501 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 502 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 499 Normalization: 1.094e+00 1.913e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 0.00 Ra Dec: 229.244 19.581 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.71694946455e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00525038582475 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/31510429/likelihoodResults_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 7846.70809385 delta logL = -5.97109174123e-05 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 7846.70803427 delta logL = -1.25322003441e-07 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .35139E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 1.5032 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' 1.0941 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .94073 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .5030E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 7846.708 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 53 CALLS 252 TOTAL EDM= .68E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 .89099 .42118E-03** at limit ** 2 Index 5.1404 1.4662 .21847E-04 .0000 3 Normalizat 1.0940 1.1596 .28873E-06 -.37683E-04 4 Prefactor .94080 1.2835 .49573E-07 -.47898E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 5.1404 Normalizat = 1.09396 Prefactor = 0.940797 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 7846.708 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 9 CALLS 261 TOTAL EDM= .68E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 .89099 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index 2.6826 2.4516 .21847E-04 .28083E-01 3 Normalizat 1.0940 1.1596 .28873E-06 -.89946 4 Prefactor .94080 1.2835 .49573E-07 -.94730 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 6.84484e-12 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 3.4776e-06 2 1.48804 3 1.18836 4 1.32897 WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 7846.70803414 delta logL = -9.09494701773e-13 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.9+1934 Spectrum: PowerLaw 225 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 3.478e-06 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 226 Index: 5.140e+00 1.488e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 227 Scale: 7.139e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 500 Prefactor: 9.408e-01 1.329e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 501 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 502 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 499 Normalization: 1.094e+00 1.188e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 0.00 Ra Dec: 229.244 19.581 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/31510429/cmap_HighResolution_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='5.25e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.72e-08', time_completed='2026-07-12 23:39:16.846352', job_id='31510429', GAL2='0.94', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='1.09', EG='1.09', time_epoch_completed='1783924756.85', return_code2='101', ts='0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='0.94', dlogl='-9.09e-13', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.58' WHERE bin_id='2177' AND source_name='4FGL J1516.9+1934' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Sun Jul 12 23:39:17 PDT 2026 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 7846.70803414 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.9+1934 Spectrum: PowerLaw 225 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 7.235e-06 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 226 Index: 2.580e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 227 Scale: 7.139e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 500 Prefactor: 9.408e-01 1.212e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 501 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 502 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 499 Normalization: 1.094e+00 1.913e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 0.00 Ra Dec: 229.244 19.581 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.71694946455e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00525038582475 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/31510439/likelihoodResults_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 7846.70809385 delta logL = -5.97109174123e-05 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 7846.70803427 delta logL = -1.25322003441e-07 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .35139E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 1.5032 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' 1.0941 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .94073 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .5030E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 7846.708 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 53 CALLS 252 TOTAL EDM= .68E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 .89099 .42118E-03** at limit ** 2 Index 5.1404 1.4662 .21847E-04 .0000 3 Normalizat 1.0940 1.1596 .28873E-06 -.37683E-04 4 Prefactor .94080 1.2835 .49573E-07 -.47898E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 5.1404 Normalizat = 1.09396 Prefactor = 0.940797 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 7846.708 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 9 CALLS 261 TOTAL EDM= .68E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 .89099 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index 2.6826 2.4516 .21847E-04 .28083E-01 3 Normalizat 1.0940 1.1596 .28873E-06 -.89946 4 Prefactor .94080 1.2835 .49573E-07 -.94730 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 6.84484e-12 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 3.4776e-06 2 1.48804 3 1.18836 4 1.32897 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 7846.70803414 delta logL = -9.09494701773e-13 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.9+1934 Spectrum: PowerLaw 225 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 3.478e-06 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 226 Index: 5.140e+00 1.488e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 227 Scale: 7.139e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 500 Prefactor: 9.408e-01 1.329e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 501 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 502 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 499 Normalization: 1.094e+00 1.188e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 0.00 Ra Dec: 229.244 19.581 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/31510439/cmap_HighResolution_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='5.25e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.72e-08', time_completed='2026-07-12 23:39:21.864556', job_id='31510439', GAL2='0.94', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='1.09', EG='1.09', time_epoch_completed='1783924761.86', return_code2='101', ts='0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='0.94', dlogl='-9.09e-13', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.58' WHERE bin_id='2177' AND source_name='4FGL J1516.9+1934' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Sun Jul 12 23:39:22 PDT 2026 _V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/31510457/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits.....................! real 24.80 user 23.17 sys 0.93 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/31510457/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/31510457/ft2_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/31510457/expmap_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/31510457/ltcube_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/31510457/Model_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1516.9+1934' 4FGL J1516.9+1934 Spectrum: PowerLaw 225 Prefactor: 7.750e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 226 Index: 2.580e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 227 Scale: 7.139e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31510457/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31510457/ft2_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/31510457/expmap_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/31510457/ltcube_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/31510457/Model_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 7846.71189466 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 7846.70865892 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .26615E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'norm ' 4.4367 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' 11.607 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' .15401E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'Prefactor ' .66218E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'norm ' .32738 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' .71205E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .47683 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' .29730E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' .56740E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' 20.837 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' .23720E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 49.037 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' 3.1853 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' 12.059 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'Prefactor ' 11.232 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Normalizat' 1.0939 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 18 'Prefactor ' .94072 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .5030E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 7846.708 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 133 CALLS 1331 TOTAL EDM= .94E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.0% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .0000 1.5056 .10925E-06** at limit ** 2 norm 4.3858 4.4199 -.15653E-06 .70505E-03 3 Prefactor 11.549 6.0553 .51255E-07 .49086E-02 4 Prefactor .0000 6.7584 .27967E-07** at limit ** 5 Prefactor .0000 3.4374 -.11986E-06** at limit ** 6 norm .32744 .18794 .39772E-08 -.10279E-02 7 norm .0000 2.4086 -.44168E-07** at limit ** 8 norm .17298 1045.7 .24997E-05** at limit ** 9 Prefactor .0000 16.170 .27702E-06** at limit ** 10 Prefactor .0000 3.3718 -.11853E-06** at limit ** 11 Prefactor 20.997 22.712 -.74210E-07 -.17575E-03 12 Prefactor .0000 .78740 -.67121E-07** at limit ** 13 Prefactor 49.073 1.2171 -.44824E-08 .16855E-01 14 norm 3.1825 2.9609 .68201E-07 -.43645E-03 15 norm 12.094 13.663 .12298E-06 -.21315E-02 16 Prefactor 11.228 11.190 .16434E-07 .25495E-03 17 Normalizat 1.0940 .22678 .83263E-06 -.73095E-05 18 Prefactor .94080 .14507 -.56617E-06 -.96072E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0 norm = 4.38577 Prefactor = 11.5488 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 0 norm = 0.327443 norm = 0 norm = 0.172977 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 20.997 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 49.0731 norm = 3.18247 norm = 12.0937 Prefactor = 11.228 Normalizat = 1.09396 Prefactor = 0.940797 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 7846.708 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 288 CALLS 1619 TOTAL EDM= .11E-07 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .0000 1.4968 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 norm 4.3858 4.4361 .47784E-03 -1.5666 3 Prefactor 11.549 14.330 .29379E-03 -1.5640 4 Prefactor .0000 6.7689 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 Prefactor .0000 3.4427 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 norm .32744 .19301 .63618E-03 -1.5697 7 norm .0000 2.4102 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 norm .17298 26.867 .16426E-01 -1.5700 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor .0000 16.246 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 10 Prefactor .0000 3.3814 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 11 Prefactor 20.997 22.923 .21914E-03 -1.5616 12 Prefactor .0000 .78630 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 13 Prefactor 49.073 41.231 .14281E-03 -1.5568 14 norm 3.1825 2.9866 .56753E-03 -1.5672 15 norm 12.094 14.987 .28822E-03 -1.5638 16 Prefactor 11.228 11.239 .29869E-03 -1.5641 17 Normalizat 1.0940 .19115 .68382E-01 -.89946 18 Prefactor .94080 .12113 .45522E-01 -.94730 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.10027e-08 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 3.63551e-06 2 4.43612 3 14.3303 4 1.32264e-06 5 3.06735e-06 6 0.193007 7 6.19323e-07 8 4.31157 9 7.23527e-06 10 2.67247e-06 11 22.9228 12 1.19374e-06 13 41.2311 14 2.98657 15 14.9875 16 11.2385 17 0.191271 18 0.121167 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 7846.70803414 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.9+1934 Spectrum: PowerLaw 225 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 7.235e-06 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 226 Index: 2.580e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 227 Scale: 7.139e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 500 Prefactor: 9.408e-01 1.212e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 501 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 502 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 499 Normalization: 1.094e+00 1.913e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 0.00 Ra Dec: 229.244 19.581 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.71694946455e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00525038582475 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/31510457/likelihoodResults_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 7846.70809385 delta logL = -5.97109174123e-05 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 7846.70803427 delta logL = -1.25322003441e-07 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .35139E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 1.5032 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' 1.0941 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .94073 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .5030E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 7846.708 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 53 CALLS 252 TOTAL EDM= .68E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 .89099 .42118E-03** at limit ** 2 Index 5.1404 1.4662 .21847E-04 .0000 3 Normalizat 1.0940 1.1596 .28873E-06 -.37683E-04 4 Prefactor .94080 1.2835 .49573E-07 -.47898E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 5.1404 Normalizat = 1.09396 Prefactor = 0.940797 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 7846.708 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 9 CALLS 261 TOTAL EDM= .68E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 .89099 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index 2.6826 2.4516 .21847E-04 .28083E-01 3 Normalizat 1.0940 1.1596 .28873E-06 -.89946 4 Prefactor .94080 1.2835 .49573E-07 -.94730 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 6.84484e-12 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 3.4776e-06 2 1.48804 3 1.18836 4 1.32897 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 7846.70803414 delta logL = -9.09494701773e-13 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.9+1934 Spectrum: PowerLaw 225 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 3.478e-06 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 226 Index: 5.140e+00 1.488e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 227 Scale: 7.139e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 500 Prefactor: 9.408e-01 1.329e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 501 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 502 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 499 Normalization: 1.094e+00 1.188e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 0.00 Ra Dec: 229.244 19.581 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/31510457/cmap_HighResolution_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='5.25e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.72e-08', time_completed='2026-07-12 23:39:59.267790', job_id='31510457', GAL2='0.94', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='1.09', EG='1.09', time_epoch_completed='1783924799.27', return_code2='101', ts='0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='0.94', dlogl='-9.09e-13', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.58' WHERE bin_id='2177' AND source_name='4FGL J1516.9+1934' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Sun Jul 12 23:39:59 PDT 2026 number of points = 7650 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177 RA = 229.244, Dec = 19.5805 tmin = 803606401, tmax = 803865601 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='31510560', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2026-07-12 23:39:16.823625', time_epoch_executed='1783924756.82' WHERE source_name='4FGL J1516.9+1934' and cadence='daily' and bin_id='2177' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/31510560 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/31510560/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=803606401.0 && nMetStart<803865601.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=803606401.0 && nMetStart<803865601.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 47 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft1_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=803606401.0 && nMetStart<803865601.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 47 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft2_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft1_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits ra=229.244 dec=19.5805 rad=12.0 tmin=803606401.0 tmax=803865601.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 2.18 user 1.58 sys 0.16 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft2_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft2_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 0.68 user 0.20 sys 0.13 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 686 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft2_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits sctable="SC_DATA" outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ltcube_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft2_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits .....................! real 8.77 user 8.22 sys 0.25 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft2_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ltcube_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/expmap_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ltcube_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits .....................! real 69.47 user 64.52 sys 4.06 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 155 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J1516.9+1934 @ 229.244 19.5805 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft2_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/cmap_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=229.244 yref=19.5805 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.67 user 0.23 sys 0.13 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft2_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/cmap_HighResolution_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=229.244 yref=19.5805 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.62 user 0.23 sys 0.13 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft2_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/Model_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits.....................! real 24.48 user 23.00 sys 1.04 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft2_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/expmap_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ltcube_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/31510560/Model_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1516.9+1934' 4FGL J1516.9+1934 Spectrum: PowerLaw 225 Prefactor: 7.750e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 226 Index: 2.580e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 227 Scale: 7.139e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ft2_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/31510560/expmap_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/31510560/ltcube_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/31510560/Model_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 7846.71189466 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 7846.70865892 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .26615E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'norm ' 4.4367 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' 11.607 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' .15401E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'Prefactor ' .66218E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'norm ' .32738 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' .71205E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .47683 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' .29730E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' .56740E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' 20.837 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' .23720E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 49.037 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' 3.1853 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' 12.059 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'Prefactor ' 11.232 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Normalizat' 1.0939 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 18 'Prefactor ' .94072 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .5030E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 7846.708 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 133 CALLS 1331 TOTAL EDM= .94E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.0% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .0000 1.5056 .10925E-06** at limit ** 2 norm 4.3858 4.4199 -.15653E-06 .70505E-03 3 Prefactor 11.549 6.0553 .51255E-07 .49086E-02 4 Prefactor .0000 6.7584 .27967E-07** at limit ** 5 Prefactor .0000 3.4374 -.11986E-06** at limit ** 6 norm .32744 .18794 .39772E-08 -.10279E-02 7 norm .0000 2.4086 -.44168E-07** at limit ** 8 norm .17298 1045.7 .24997E-05** at limit ** 9 Prefactor .0000 16.170 .27702E-06** at limit ** 10 Prefactor .0000 3.3718 -.11853E-06** at limit ** 11 Prefactor 20.997 22.712 -.74210E-07 -.17575E-03 12 Prefactor .0000 .78740 -.67121E-07** at limit ** 13 Prefactor 49.073 1.2171 -.44824E-08 .16855E-01 14 norm 3.1825 2.9609 .68201E-07 -.43645E-03 15 norm 12.094 13.663 .12298E-06 -.21315E-02 16 Prefactor 11.228 11.190 .16434E-07 .25495E-03 17 Normalizat 1.0940 .22678 .83263E-06 -.73095E-05 18 Prefactor .94080 .14507 -.56617E-06 -.96072E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0 norm = 4.38577 Prefactor = 11.5488 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 0 norm = 0.327443 norm = 0 norm = 0.172977 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 20.997 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 49.0731 norm = 3.18247 norm = 12.0937 Prefactor = 11.228 Normalizat = 1.09396 Prefactor = 0.940797 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 7846.708 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 288 CALLS 1619 TOTAL EDM= .11E-07 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .0000 1.4968 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 norm 4.3858 4.4361 .47784E-03 -1.5666 3 Prefactor 11.549 14.330 .29379E-03 -1.5640 4 Prefactor .0000 6.7689 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 Prefactor .0000 3.4427 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 norm .32744 .19301 .63618E-03 -1.5697 7 norm .0000 2.4102 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 norm .17298 26.867 .16426E-01 -1.5700 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor .0000 16.246 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 10 Prefactor .0000 3.3814 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 11 Prefactor 20.997 22.923 .21914E-03 -1.5616 12 Prefactor .0000 .78630 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 13 Prefactor 49.073 41.231 .14281E-03 -1.5568 14 norm 3.1825 2.9866 .56753E-03 -1.5672 15 norm 12.094 14.987 .28822E-03 -1.5638 16 Prefactor 11.228 11.239 .29869E-03 -1.5641 17 Normalizat 1.0940 .19115 .68382E-01 -.89946 18 Prefactor .94080 .12113 .45522E-01 -.94730 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.10027e-08 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 3.63551e-06 2 4.43612 3 14.3303 4 1.32264e-06 5 3.06735e-06 6 0.193007 7 6.19323e-07 8 4.31157 9 7.23527e-06 10 2.67247e-06 11 22.9228 12 1.19374e-06 13 41.2311 14 2.98657 15 14.9875 16 11.2385 17 0.191271 18 0.121167 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 7846.70803414 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.9+1934 Spectrum: PowerLaw 225 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 7.235e-06 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 226 Index: 2.580e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 227 Scale: 7.139e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 500 Prefactor: 9.408e-01 1.212e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 501 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 502 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 499 Normalization: 1.094e+00 1.913e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 0.00 Ra Dec: 229.244 19.581 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 6.71694946455e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00525038582475 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/31510560/likelihoodResults_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 7846.70809385 delta logL = -5.97109174123e-05 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 7846.70803427 delta logL = -1.25322003441e-07 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .35139E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 1.5032 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' 1.0941 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .94073 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .5030E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 7846.708 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 53 CALLS 252 TOTAL EDM= .68E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 .89099 .42118E-03** at limit ** 2 Index 5.1404 1.4662 .21847E-04 .0000 3 Normalizat 1.0940 1.1596 .28873E-06 -.37683E-04 4 Prefactor .94080 1.2835 .49573E-07 -.47898E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 5.1404 Normalizat = 1.09396 Prefactor = 0.940797 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 7846.708 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 9 CALLS 261 TOTAL EDM= .68E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 .89099 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index 2.6826 2.4516 .21847E-04 .28083E-01 3 Normalizat 1.0940 1.1596 .28873E-06 -.89946 4 Prefactor .94080 1.2835 .49573E-07 -.94730 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 6.84484e-12 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 3.4776e-06 2 1.48804 3 1.18836 4 1.32897 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 7846.70803414 delta logL = -9.09494701773e-13 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.9+1934 Spectrum: PowerLaw 225 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 3.478e-06 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 226 Index: 5.140e+00 1.488e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 227 Scale: 7.139e+02 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 500 Prefactor: 9.408e-01 1.329e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 501 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 502 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 499 Normalization: 1.094e+00 1.188e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 0.00 Ra Dec: 229.244 19.581 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/31510560/cmap_HighResolution_803606401_803865601_4FGL_J1516.9+1934_daily_bin2177.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='5.25e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='6.72e-08', time_completed='2026-07-12 23:45:01.573297', job_id='31510560', GAL2='0.94', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='1.09', EG='1.09', time_epoch_completed='1783925101.57', return_code2='101', ts='0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='0.94', dlogl='-9.09e-13', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.58' WHERE bin_id='2177' AND source_name='4FGL J1516.9+1934' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Sun Jul 12 23:45:01 PDT 2026