********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 20582.99 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 534 CALLS 2842 TOTAL EDM= .13E-05 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 .47232 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor 17.422 9.9814 .23963E-03 -1.5624 3 Prefactor 20.512 11.718 .22120E-03 -1.5617 4 Prefactor .23315E-08 9.2291 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 norm .36497 4.1057 .90058E-02 -1.5696 6 Prefactor 3.4108 10.884 .54733E-03 -1.5671 7 norm 1.0917 3.1632 .11394E-02 -1.5687 8 Prefactor .16384 2.3633 .76481E-02 -1.5700 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 norm 6.6449 4.3375 .38887E-03 -1.5656 10 Prefactor 7.2936 7.7349 .37121E-03 -1.5654 11 norm 2.7062 .79347 .61892E-03 -1.5675 12 Prefactor 2.9539 4.1546 .59016E-03 -1.5674 13 Prefactor 3.5466 2.3524 .53642E-03 -1.5670 14 norm .0000 .37258 .27755E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm 1.6878 1.5673 .81181E-03 -1.5682 16 Prefactor .35118 2.7240 .66642E-02 -1.5696 17 Prefactor 7.5034 20.840 .36790E-03 -1.5653 18 Prefactor .16653E-09 20.136 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 19 Prefactor 11.002 6.8128 .30110E-03 -1.5642 20 norm .16653E-09 4.8739 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 21 Prefactor .0000 2.8094 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 22 Prefactor 25.251 28.524 .19842E-03 -1.5607 23 Prefactor .85901 2.8718 .47950E-03 -1.5689 24 Prefactor 9.1763 14.550 .33079E-03 -1.5647 25 Normalizat .88284 .92679E-01 .44680E-01 -.97066 26 Prefactor .97372 .95334E-01 .45937E-01 -.93611 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.33539e-06 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 2.06188e-06 2 9.98145 3 11.7179 4 0.000293985 5 2.44822 6 10.8837 7 3.16321 8 1.24451 9 4.33753 10 7.7349 11 0.793473 12 4.15462 13 2.35238 14 2.25496e-06 15 1.56731 16 1.95614 17 20.8398 18 0.000122111 19 6.81283 20 5.51182e-05 21 1.5784e-06 22 28.5238 23 2.87178 24 14.5502 25 0.092696 26 0.0953508 /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/pyfits/__init__.py:22: PyFITSDeprecationWarning: PyFITS is deprecated, please use astropy.io.fits PyFITSDeprecationWarning) # noqa Likelihood Analysis Tool Support Contact: Daniel Kocevski (daniel.kocevski@nasa.gov) Importing modules... This is make3FGLxml version 01r0. The default diffuse model files and names are for pass 8 and assume you have v10r00p05 of the Fermi Science Tools or higher. This is make4FGLDR3xml version 01r09. The default diffuse model files and names are for P8R3, 4FGL DRs, and the default fermitools directory locations. WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/matplotlib/cbook/deprecation.py:106: MatplotlibDeprecationWarning: The mpl_toolkits.axes_grid module was deprecated in version 2.1. Use mpl_toolkits.axes_grid1 and mpl_toolkits.axisartist provies the same functionality instead. warnings.warn(message, mplDeprecation, stacklevel=1) WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 20582.9922401 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 3.512e-01 1.956e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 9.737e-01 9.535e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 8.828e-01 9.270e-02 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 0.01 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 3.63348047034e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00281933907767 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/6958722/likelihoodResults_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 20582.9820892 delta logL = 0.0101509073938 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 20582.4083145 delta logL = 0.583925625913 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .11996E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 9.8901 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .85807 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99291 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD TERMINATED WITHOUT CONVERGENCE. FCN= 20608.12 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=FAILED 132 CALLS 538 TOTAL EDM= .17E+04 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .47198E-02 .12298 .0000 ** at limit ** 2 Index .27552 .93494E-02 .0000 10272. 3 Normalizat 1.5440 .23791E-02 .0000 -11.612 4 Prefactor .22033 .26486E-02 .0000 108.40 ERR DEF= .500 START SIMPLEX MINIMIZATION. CONVERGENCE WHEN EDM .LT. .20E-04 SIMPLEX MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 20582.53 FROM SIMPLEX STATUS=PROGRESS 502 CALLS 1040 TOTAL EDM= .12E-04 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .20392E-04 .12298 .17721E-06** at limit ** 2 Index 7.8605 .93494E-02 .40961E-02 10272. 3 Normalizat .84505 .23791E-02 .89430E-04 -11.612 4 Prefactor .98756 .26486E-02 .37146E-04 108.40 ERR DEF= .500 MIGRAD TERMINATED WITHOUT CONVERGENCE. FCN= 20582.53 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=FAILED 46 CALLS 1086 TOTAL EDM= .36E+06 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .20392E-04 .95156E-05 .0000 ** at limit ** 2 Index 7.8605 8.5140 .0000 -182.18 3 Normalizat .84505 .20936E-02 .0000 -20.069 4 Prefactor .98756 .22719E-02 .0000 19.535 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 2.0392e-05 Index = 7.86055 Normalizat = 0.845049 Prefactor = 0.987562 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 20582.53 FROM HESSE STATUS=NOT POSDEF 27 CALLS 1113 TOTAL EDM= .14E+07 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .20392E-04 .13536E-04 .13576E-02 -5694.1 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index 7.8605 5.6208 4.4158 -.92607E+07 3 Normalizat .84505 .29664E-02 .64392E-03 2700.8 4 Prefactor .98756 .32189E-02 .10135E-02 3736.3 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 2 estimated distance: 1.4469e+06 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.35365e-05 2 27.2145 3 0.00296639 4 0.00321886 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 1 logL (Free Index) = 20582.5321145 delta logL = 0.460125590274 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 2.039e-05 1.354e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 7.861e+00 2.721e+01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 9.876e-01 3.219e-03 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 8.450e-01 2.966e-03 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 1.29 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Photon Index (Free Index): 7.86 +/- 27.21 Photon Flux (Free Index): 2.13e-08 +/- 1.38e-06 Energy Flux (Free Index): 2.49e-06 +/- 1.60e-04 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/6958722/cmap_HighResolution_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.82e-03', comment='SUCCESS', energy_flux2='2.49e-06', dlogl='4.60e-01', photon_flux2='2.13e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2025-06-24 06:06:57.129032', photon_index_error2='27.21', photon_index2='7.86', ts='0.01', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='0.97', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='3.63e-08', energy_flux_error2='1.60e-04', EG='0.88', time_epoch_completed='1750770417.13', return_code='0', job_id='6958722', GAL2='0.99', EG2='0.85', return_code2='1', photon_flux_error2='1.38e-06', ts2='1.29', photon_index='2.46' WHERE bin_id='881' AND source_name='4FGL J1516.1+4351' AND cadence='weekly'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Jun 24 06:07:03 PDT 2025 number of points = 17400 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881 RA = 229.049, Dec = 43.8527 tmin = 771811201, tmax = 772416001 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='6958920', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2025-06-24 05:30:14.726413', time_epoch_executed='1750768214.73' WHERE source_name='4FGL J1516.1+4351' and cadence='weekly' and bin_id='881' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/6958920 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/6958920/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=771811201.0 && nMetStart<772416001.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=771811201.0 && nMetStart<772416001.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 107 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft1_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=771811201.0 && nMetStart<772416001.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 107 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft1_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits ra=229.049 dec=43.8527 rad=12.0 tmin=771811201.0 tmax=772416001.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 8.01 user 3.80 sys 0.21 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 3.37 user 0.23 sys 0.15 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 1870 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits sctable="SC_DATA" outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ltcube_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits .....................! real 20.22 user 16.11 sys 0.23 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ltcube_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/expmap_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ltcube_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits .....................! real 67.42 user 57.59 sys 3.60 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 195 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J1516.1+4351 @ 229.049 43.8527 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/cmap_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=229.049 yref=43.8527 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 4.03 user 0.25 sys 0.12 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/cmap_HighResolution_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=229.049 yref=43.8527 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 4.03 user 0.22 sys 0.12 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits.....................! real 50.38 user 45.75 sys 1.04 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/expmap_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ltcube_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/6958920/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1516.1+4351' 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 1.184e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/6958920/expmap_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/6958920/ltcube_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/6958920/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 20583.0017507 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 20582.9927865 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .34034E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' 17.430 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' 20.449 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' .15931E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .39509 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' 3.4130 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' 1.0948 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' .16164 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'norm ' 6.6509 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' 7.2915 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'norm ' 2.7063 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 2.9583 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 3.5472 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .38397E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' 1.6821 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'Prefactor ' .37196 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' 7.4223 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' .46344E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' 11.053 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' .17668E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .22769E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' 25.409 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' .86868 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 9.1665 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Normalizat' .88271 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 26 'Prefactor ' .97365 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 20582.99 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 153 CALLS 2308 TOTAL EDM= .29E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 2.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 .47250 -.32533E-07** at limit ** 2 Prefactor 17.422 1.8186 .10489E-06 -.85481E-02 3 Prefactor 20.512 4.9723 -.11696E-06 -.15272E-01 4 Prefactor .23315E-08 8.9112 -.27171E-06** at limit ** 5 norm .36497 12.879 -.12989E-05 .46082E-03 6 Prefactor 3.4108 2.6550 .45825E-06 -.83155E-02 7 norm 1.0917 3.1477 .15645E-06 .25758E-02 8 Prefactor .16384 17.395 .28684E-05** at limit ** 9 norm 6.6449 4.3282 -.16831E-07 -.29437E-02 10 Prefactor 7.2936 7.6661 -.27708E-06 -.22468E-02 11 norm 2.7062 .79129 -.15320E-07 -.10111E-01 12 Prefactor 2.9539 3.8505 .62610E-07 -.64626E-03 13 Prefactor 3.5466 2.3497 -.42711E-07 -.69807E-02 14 norm .0000 1.3733 .54328E-07** at limit ** 15 norm 1.6878 1.4849 .39577E-07 -.97767E-04 16 Prefactor .35118 4.2760 -.91138E-06 .30346E-02 17 Prefactor 7.5034 1.5333 -.33471E-07 .50308E-02 18 Prefactor .16653E-09 20.270 .22793E-06** at limit ** 19 Prefactor 11.002 5.3424 .22567E-06 -.17551E-02 20 norm .16653E-09 4.8237 -.10479E-06** at limit ** 21 Prefactor .0000 2.8142 .47338E-07** at limit ** 22 Prefactor 25.251 28.405 -.81346E-06 .20945E-02 23 Prefactor .85901 2.0126 .38892E-07 -.30013E-02 24 Prefactor 9.1763 1.8290 .24558E-07 -.48405E-03 25 Normalizat .88284 .10725 -.12430E-05 -.18960E-03 26 Prefactor .97372 .11359 .12110E-05 -.57490E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 17.4224 Prefactor = 20.5118 Prefactor = 2.33147e-09 norm = 0.36497 Prefactor = 3.41083 norm = 1.09174 Prefactor = 0.16384 norm = 6.64488 Prefactor = 7.29363 norm = 2.70624 Prefactor = 2.95389 Prefactor = 3.54663 norm = 0 norm = 1.68775 Prefactor = 0.351177 Prefactor = 7.50337 Prefactor = 1.66533e-10 Prefactor = 11.0021 norm = 1.66533e-10 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 25.2506 Prefactor = 0.859014 Prefactor = 9.17634 Normalizat = 0.882844 Prefactor = 0.973723 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 20582.99 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 534 CALLS 2842 TOTAL EDM= .13E-05 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 .47232 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor 17.422 9.9814 .23963E-03 -1.5624 3 Prefactor 20.512 11.718 .22120E-03 -1.5617 4 Prefactor .23315E-08 9.2291 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 norm .36497 4.1057 .90058E-02 -1.5696 6 Prefactor 3.4108 10.884 .54733E-03 -1.5671 7 norm 1.0917 3.1632 .11394E-02 -1.5687 8 Prefactor .16384 2.3633 .76481E-02 -1.5700 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 norm 6.6449 4.3375 .38887E-03 -1.5656 10 Prefactor 7.2936 7.7349 .37121E-03 -1.5654 11 norm 2.7062 .79347 .61892E-03 -1.5675 12 Prefactor 2.9539 4.1546 .59016E-03 -1.5674 13 Prefactor 3.5466 2.3524 .53642E-03 -1.5670 14 norm .0000 .37258 .27755E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm 1.6878 1.5673 .81181E-03 -1.5682 16 Prefactor .35118 2.7240 .66642E-02 -1.5696 17 Prefactor 7.5034 20.840 .36790E-03 -1.5653 18 Prefactor .16653E-09 20.136 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 19 Prefactor 11.002 6.8128 .30110E-03 -1.5642 20 norm .16653E-09 4.8739 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 21 Prefactor .0000 2.8094 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 22 Prefactor 25.251 28.524 .19842E-03 -1.5607 23 Prefactor .85901 2.8718 .47950E-03 -1.5689 24 Prefactor 9.1763 14.550 .33079E-03 -1.5647 25 Normalizat .88284 .92679E-01 .44680E-01 -.97066 26 Prefactor .97372 .95334E-01 .45937E-01 -.93611 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.33539e-06 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 2.06188e-06 2 9.98145 3 11.7179 4 0.000293985 5 2.44822 6 10.8837 7 3.16321 8 1.24451 9 4.33753 10 7.7349 11 0.793473 12 4.15462 13 2.35238 14 2.25496e-06 15 1.56731 16 1.95614 17 20.8398 18 0.000122111 19 6.81283 20 5.51182e-05 21 1.5784e-06 22 28.5238 23 2.87178 24 14.5502 25 0.092696 26 0.0953508 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 20582.9922401 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 3.512e-01 1.956e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 9.737e-01 9.535e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 8.828e-01 9.270e-02 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 0.01 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 3.63348047034e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00281933907767 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/6958920/likelihoodResults_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 20582.9820892 delta logL = 0.0101509073938 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 20582.4083145 delta logL = 0.583925625913 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .11996E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 9.8901 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .85807 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99291 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD TERMINATED WITHOUT CONVERGENCE. FCN= 20608.12 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=FAILED 132 CALLS 538 TOTAL EDM= .17E+04 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .47198E-02 .12298 .0000 ** at limit ** 2 Index .27552 .93494E-02 .0000 10272. 3 Normalizat 1.5440 .23791E-02 .0000 -11.612 4 Prefactor .22033 .26486E-02 .0000 108.40 ERR DEF= .500 START SIMPLEX MINIMIZATION. CONVERGENCE WHEN EDM .LT. .20E-04 SIMPLEX MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 20582.53 FROM SIMPLEX STATUS=PROGRESS 502 CALLS 1040 TOTAL EDM= .12E-04 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .20392E-04 .12298 .17721E-06** at limit ** 2 Index 7.8605 .93494E-02 .40961E-02 10272. 3 Normalizat .84505 .23791E-02 .89430E-04 -11.612 4 Prefactor .98756 .26486E-02 .37146E-04 108.40 ERR DEF= .500 MIGRAD TERMINATED WITHOUT CONVERGENCE. FCN= 20582.53 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=FAILED 46 CALLS 1086 TOTAL EDM= .36E+06 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .20392E-04 .95156E-05 .0000 ** at limit ** 2 Index 7.8605 8.5140 .0000 -182.18 3 Normalizat .84505 .20936E-02 .0000 -20.069 4 Prefactor .98756 .22719E-02 .0000 19.535 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 2.0392e-05 Index = 7.86055 Normalizat = 0.845049 Prefactor = 0.987562 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 20582.53 FROM HESSE STATUS=NOT POSDEF 27 CALLS 1113 TOTAL EDM= .14E+07 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .20392E-04 .13536E-04 .13576E-02 -5694.1 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index 7.8605 5.6208 4.4158 -.92607E+07 3 Normalizat .84505 .29664E-02 .64392E-03 2700.8 4 Prefactor .98756 .32189E-02 .10135E-02 3736.3 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 2 estimated distance: 1.4469e+06 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.35365e-05 2 27.2145 3 0.00296639 4 0.00321886 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 1 logL (Free Index) = 20582.5321145 delta logL = 0.460125590274 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 2.039e-05 1.354e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 7.861e+00 2.721e+01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 9.876e-01 3.219e-03 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 8.450e-01 2.966e-03 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 1.29 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Photon Index (Free Index): 7.86 +/- 27.21 Photon Flux (Free Index): 2.13e-08 +/- 1.38e-06 Energy Flux (Free Index): 2.49e-06 +/- 1.60e-04 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/6958920/cmap_HighResolution_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.82e-03', comment='SUCCESS', energy_flux2='2.49e-06', dlogl='4.60e-01', photon_flux2='2.13e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2025-06-24 06:36:06.937626', photon_index_error2='27.21', photon_index2='7.86', ts='0.01', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='0.97', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='3.63e-08', energy_flux_error2='1.60e-04', EG='0.88', time_epoch_completed='1750772166.94', return_code='0', job_id='6958920', GAL2='0.99', EG2='0.85', return_code2='1', photon_flux_error2='1.38e-06', ts2='1.29', photon_index='2.46' WHERE bin_id='881' AND source_name='4FGL J1516.1+4351' AND cadence='weekly'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Jun 24 06:36:15 PDT 2025 number of points = 17400 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881 RA = 229.049, Dec = 43.8527 tmin = 771811201, tmax = 772416001 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='6959274', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2025-06-24 06:04:27.891260', time_epoch_executed='1750770267.89' WHERE source_name='4FGL J1516.1+4351' and cadence='weekly' and bin_id='881' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/6959274 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/6959274/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=771811201.0 && nMetStart<772416001.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=771811201.0 && nMetStart<772416001.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 107 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft1_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=771811201.0 && nMetStart<772416001.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 107 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft1_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits ra=229.049 dec=43.8527 rad=12.0 tmin=771811201.0 tmax=772416001.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 6.79 user 4.00 sys 0.31 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 3.11 user 0.20 sys 0.14 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 1870 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits sctable="SC_DATA" outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ltcube_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits .....................! real 20.08 user 16.80 sys 0.32 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ltcube_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/expmap_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ltcube_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits .....................! real 66.16 user 59.46 sys 3.72 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 195 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J1516.1+4351 @ 229.049 43.8527 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/cmap_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=229.049 yref=43.8527 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 7.50 user 0.24 sys 0.16 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/cmap_HighResolution_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=229.049 yref=43.8527 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 6.06 user 0.23 sys 0.17 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits.....................! real 54.49 user 47.80 sys 0.90 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/expmap_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ltcube_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/6959274/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1516.1+4351' 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 1.184e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/6959274/expmap_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/6959274/ltcube_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/6959274/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 20583.0017507 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 20582.9927865 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .34034E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' 17.430 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' 20.449 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' .15931E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .39509 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' 3.4130 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' 1.0948 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' .16164 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'norm ' 6.6509 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' 7.2915 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'norm ' 2.7063 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 2.9583 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 3.5472 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .38397E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' 1.6821 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'Prefactor ' .37196 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' 7.4223 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' .46344E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' 11.053 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' .17668E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .22769E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' 25.409 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' .86868 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 9.1665 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Normalizat' .88271 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 26 'Prefactor ' .97365 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 20582.99 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 153 CALLS 2308 TOTAL EDM= .29E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 2.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 .47250 -.32533E-07** at limit ** 2 Prefactor 17.422 1.8186 .10489E-06 -.85481E-02 3 Prefactor 20.512 4.9723 -.11696E-06 -.15272E-01 4 Prefactor .23315E-08 8.9112 -.27171E-06** at limit ** 5 norm .36497 12.879 -.12989E-05 .46082E-03 6 Prefactor 3.4108 2.6550 .45825E-06 -.83155E-02 7 norm 1.0917 3.1477 .15645E-06 .25758E-02 8 Prefactor .16384 17.395 .28684E-05** at limit ** 9 norm 6.6449 4.3282 -.16831E-07 -.29437E-02 10 Prefactor 7.2936 7.6661 -.27708E-06 -.22468E-02 11 norm 2.7062 .79129 -.15320E-07 -.10111E-01 12 Prefactor 2.9539 3.8505 .62610E-07 -.64626E-03 13 Prefactor 3.5466 2.3497 -.42711E-07 -.69807E-02 14 norm .0000 1.3733 .54328E-07** at limit ** 15 norm 1.6878 1.4849 .39577E-07 -.97767E-04 16 Prefactor .35118 4.2760 -.91138E-06 .30346E-02 17 Prefactor 7.5034 1.5333 -.33471E-07 .50308E-02 18 Prefactor .16653E-09 20.270 .22793E-06** at limit ** 19 Prefactor 11.002 5.3424 .22567E-06 -.17551E-02 20 norm .16653E-09 4.8237 -.10479E-06** at limit ** 21 Prefactor .0000 2.8142 .47338E-07** at limit ** 22 Prefactor 25.251 28.405 -.81346E-06 .20945E-02 23 Prefactor .85901 2.0126 .38892E-07 -.30013E-02 24 Prefactor 9.1763 1.8290 .24558E-07 -.48405E-03 25 Normalizat .88284 .10725 -.12430E-05 -.18960E-03 26 Prefactor .97372 .11359 .12110E-05 -.57490E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 17.4224 Prefactor = 20.5118 Prefactor = 2.33147e-09 norm = 0.36497 Prefactor = 3.41083 norm = 1.09174 Prefactor = 0.16384 norm = 6.64488 Prefactor = 7.29363 norm = 2.70624 Prefactor = 2.95389 Prefactor = 3.54663 norm = 0 norm = 1.68775 Prefactor = 0.351177 Prefactor = 7.50337 Prefactor = 1.66533e-10 Prefactor = 11.0021 norm = 1.66533e-10 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 25.2506 Prefactor = 0.859014 Prefactor = 9.17634 Normalizat = 0.882844 Prefactor = 0.973723 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 20582.99 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 534 CALLS 2842 TOTAL EDM= .13E-05 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 .47232 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor 17.422 9.9814 .23963E-03 -1.5624 3 Prefactor 20.512 11.718 .22120E-03 -1.5617 4 Prefactor .23315E-08 9.2291 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 norm .36497 4.1057 .90058E-02 -1.5696 6 Prefactor 3.4108 10.884 .54733E-03 -1.5671 7 norm 1.0917 3.1632 .11394E-02 -1.5687 8 Prefactor .16384 2.3633 .76481E-02 -1.5700 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 norm 6.6449 4.3375 .38887E-03 -1.5656 10 Prefactor 7.2936 7.7349 .37121E-03 -1.5654 11 norm 2.7062 .79347 .61892E-03 -1.5675 12 Prefactor 2.9539 4.1546 .59016E-03 -1.5674 13 Prefactor 3.5466 2.3524 .53642E-03 -1.5670 14 norm .0000 .37258 .27755E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm 1.6878 1.5673 .81181E-03 -1.5682 16 Prefactor .35118 2.7240 .66642E-02 -1.5696 17 Prefactor 7.5034 20.840 .36790E-03 -1.5653 18 Prefactor .16653E-09 20.136 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 19 Prefactor 11.002 6.8128 .30110E-03 -1.5642 20 norm .16653E-09 4.8739 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 21 Prefactor .0000 2.8094 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 22 Prefactor 25.251 28.524 .19842E-03 -1.5607 23 Prefactor .85901 2.8718 .47950E-03 -1.5689 24 Prefactor 9.1763 14.550 .33079E-03 -1.5647 25 Normalizat .88284 .92679E-01 .44680E-01 -.97066 26 Prefactor .97372 .95334E-01 .45937E-01 -.93611 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.33539e-06 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 2.06188e-06 2 9.98145 3 11.7179 4 0.000293985 5 2.44822 6 10.8837 7 3.16321 8 1.24451 9 4.33753 10 7.7349 11 0.793473 12 4.15462 13 2.35238 14 2.25496e-06 15 1.56731 16 1.95614 17 20.8398 18 0.000122111 19 6.81283 20 5.51182e-05 21 1.5784e-06 22 28.5238 23 2.87178 24 14.5502 25 0.092696 26 0.0953508 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 20582.9922401 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 3.512e-01 1.956e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 9.737e-01 9.535e-02 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 8.828e-01 9.270e-02 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 0.01 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 3.63348047034e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00281933907767 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/6959274/likelihoodResults_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 20582.9820892 delta logL = 0.0101509073938 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 20582.4083145 delta logL = 0.583925625913 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .11996E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 9.8901 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .85807 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .99291 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD TERMINATED WITHOUT CONVERGENCE. FCN= 20608.12 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=FAILED 132 CALLS 538 TOTAL EDM= .17E+04 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .47198E-02 .12298 .0000 ** at limit ** 2 Index .27552 .93494E-02 .0000 10272. 3 Normalizat 1.5440 .23791E-02 .0000 -11.612 4 Prefactor .22033 .26486E-02 .0000 108.40 ERR DEF= .500 START SIMPLEX MINIMIZATION. CONVERGENCE WHEN EDM .LT. .20E-04 SIMPLEX MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 20582.53 FROM SIMPLEX STATUS=PROGRESS 502 CALLS 1040 TOTAL EDM= .12E-04 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .20392E-04 .12298 .17721E-06** at limit ** 2 Index 7.8605 .93494E-02 .40961E-02 10272. 3 Normalizat .84505 .23791E-02 .89430E-04 -11.612 4 Prefactor .98756 .26486E-02 .37146E-04 108.40 ERR DEF= .500 MIGRAD TERMINATED WITHOUT CONVERGENCE. FCN= 20582.53 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=FAILED 46 CALLS 1086 TOTAL EDM= .36E+06 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .20392E-04 .95156E-05 .0000 ** at limit ** 2 Index 7.8605 8.5140 .0000 -182.18 3 Normalizat .84505 .20936E-02 .0000 -20.069 4 Prefactor .98756 .22719E-02 .0000 19.535 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 2.0392e-05 Index = 7.86055 Normalizat = 0.845049 Prefactor = 0.987562 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 20582.53 FROM HESSE STATUS=NOT POSDEF 27 CALLS 1113 TOTAL EDM= .14E+07 STRATEGY= 1 ERR MATRIX NOT POS-DEF EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .20392E-04 .13536E-04 .13576E-02 -5694.1 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index 7.8605 5.6208 4.4158 -.92607E+07 3 Normalizat .84505 .29664E-02 .64392E-03 2700.8 4 Prefactor .98756 .32189E-02 .10135E-02 3736.3 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 2 estimated distance: 1.4469e+06 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.35365e-05 2 27.2145 3 0.00296639 4 0.00321886 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 1 logL (Free Index) = 20582.5321145 delta logL = 0.460125590274 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 2.039e-05 1.354e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 7.861e+00 2.721e+01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 9.876e-01 3.219e-03 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 8.450e-01 2.966e-03 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 1.29 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Photon Index (Free Index): 7.86 +/- 27.21 Photon Flux (Free Index): 2.13e-08 +/- 1.38e-06 Energy Flux (Free Index): 2.49e-06 +/- 1.60e-04 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/6959274/cmap_HighResolution_771811201_772416001_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_weekly_bin881.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='2.82e-03', comment='SUCCESS', energy_flux2='2.49e-06', dlogl='4.60e-01', photon_flux2='2.13e-08', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2025-06-24 06:58:57.058954', photon_index_error2='27.21', photon_index2='7.86', ts='0.01', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='0.97', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='3.63e-08', energy_flux_error2='1.60e-04', EG='0.88', time_epoch_completed='1750773537.06', return_code='0', job_id='6959274', GAL2='0.99', EG2='0.85', return_code2='1', photon_flux_error2='1.38e-06', ts2='1.29', photon_index='2.46' WHERE bin_id='881' AND source_name='4FGL J1516.1+4351' AND cadence='weekly'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Jun 24 06:59:00 PDT 2025