********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 5966.409 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 520 CALLS 2813 TOTAL EDM= .59E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .51045E-05 31.856 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .11464E-05 114.99 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .37081E-07 39.661 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 Prefactor 20.063 17.917 .22247E-03 -1.5618 5 norm .0000 32.087 .17159E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .25577E-05 21.346 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 norm 5.9674 8.0086 .41138E-03 -1.5659 8 Prefactor 14.889 14.592 .25969E-03 -1.5631 9 norm 7.0654 7.8517 .37788E-03 -1.5655 10 Prefactor .51675 12.037 .93728E-02 -1.5694 11 norm 3.5323 2.0622 .53733E-03 -1.5670 12 Prefactor 6.7873 6.6311 .38537E-03 -1.5656 13 Prefactor 10.451 6.8291 .30988E-03 -1.5643 14 norm .0000 .96658 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm 2.8305 2.7309 .60422E-03 -1.5674 16 Prefactor .55511E-10 3.5810 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor 44.475 62.225 .14777E-03 -1.5575 18 Prefactor 32.957 22.909 .17396E-03 -1.5593 19 Prefactor .44409E-09 5.3694 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 norm 10.892 12.770 .30308E-03 -1.5642 21 Prefactor .72164E-09 6.1465 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 22 Prefactor .14494E-06 19.310 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 23 Prefactor .0000 2.2513 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 24 Prefactor 8.9837 15.362 .32778E-03 -1.5648 25 Normalizat .73845 .17761 .42794E-01 -1.0239 26 Prefactor 1.1016 .18787 .37531E-01 -.89415 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 5.86123e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.025504 2 0.0229628 3 0.00242505 4 17.9171 5 2.11903e-05 6 0.0147781 7 8.00863 8 14.5922 9 7.85172 10 4.98803 11 2.06218 12 6.63108 13 6.82911 14 3.57242e-08 15 2.73088 16 3.44563e-05 17 62.2261 18 22.9091 19 9.79497e-05 20 12.7705 21 0.000130742 22 0.00334587 23 6.74997e-06 24 15.3621 25 0.177746 26 0.187981 V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/35815255/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits.....................! real 21.63 user 19.64 sys 1.03 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/35815255/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/35815255/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/35815255/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/35815255/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/35815255/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1516.1+4351' 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 1.184e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/35815255/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/35815255/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/35815255/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/35815255/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/35815255/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.50034773 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.41006608 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .34467E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .11005E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' .15057E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' 20.219 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .18182E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .13961E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' 5.9513 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' 14.845 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'norm ' 7.0387 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' .51609 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'norm ' 3.5358 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 6.7709 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 10.438 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .24869E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' 2.8304 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'Prefactor ' .53135E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' 45.801 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 33.055 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' .59611E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' 10.910 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .65733E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' .10156E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' .48525E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 9.3343 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Normalizat' .73791 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 26 'Prefactor ' 1.1015 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** _V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/35815269/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits.....................! real 22.63 user 20.98 sys 0.95 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/35815269/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/35815269/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/35815269/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/35815269/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/35815269/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1516.1+4351' 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 1.184e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/35815269/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/35815269/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/35815269/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/35815269/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/35815269/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.50034773 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.41006608 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .34467E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .11005E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' .15057E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' 20.219 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .18182E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .13961E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' 5.9513 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' 14.845 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'norm ' 7.0387 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' .51609 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'norm ' 3.5358 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 6.7709 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 10.438 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .24869E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' 2.8304 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'Prefactor ' .53135E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' 45.801 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 33.055 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' .59611E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' 10.910 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .65733E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' .10156E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' .48525E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 9.3343 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Normalizat' .73791 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 26 'Prefactor ' 1.1015 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5966.409 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 206 CALLS 2293 TOTAL EDM= .94E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 2.6% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .51045E-05 24.717 .15987E-05** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .11464E-05 115.25 .12046E-05** at limit ** 3 Prefactor .37081E-07 39.662 .20386E-05** at limit ** 4 Prefactor 20.063 17.690 .15123E-06 .21540E-01 5 norm .0000 33.596 .16274E-05** at limit ** 6 Prefactor .25577E-05 16.952 -.22054E-06** at limit ** 7 norm 5.9674 7.8797 .24886E-06 .13208E-02 8 Prefactor 14.889 11.535 .49876E-06 .12170 9 norm 7.0654 7.8060 -.24782E-06 .27814E-03 10 Prefactor .51675 .92374 .77511E-07 -.92044E-03 11 norm 3.5323 2.0513 -.25002E-06 -.31618E-02 12 Prefactor 6.7873 6.5336 .24904E-06 .11178E-02 13 Prefactor 10.451 6.8210 -.80518E-08 -.62473E-03 14 norm .0000 .98627 .21111E-06** at limit ** 15 norm 2.8305 2.7198 -.30975E-06 -.11879E-03 16 Prefactor .55511E-10 3.5834 .12850E-06** at limit ** 17 Prefactor 44.475 60.081 -.54679E-06 .19902E-01 18 Prefactor 32.957 3.1365 -.46670E-07 -.15785E-01 19 Prefactor .44409E-09 5.3706 .34749E-06** at limit ** 20 norm 10.892 12.762 .33954E-06 .59138E-02 21 Prefactor .72164E-09 6.1398 .51281E-06** at limit ** 22 Prefactor .14494E-06 18.918 .30752E-06** at limit ** 23 Prefactor .0000 2.2574 .50368E-07** at limit ** 24 Prefactor 8.9837 14.772 .17805E-06 .36523E-01 25 Normalizat .73845 .20195 -.11853E-04 -.18812E-04 26 Prefactor 1.1016 .21805 .94743E-05 -.21144E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 5.10453e-06 Prefactor = 1.14636e-06 Prefactor = 3.70814e-08 Prefactor = 20.0634 norm = 0 Prefactor = 2.55768e-06 norm = 5.96742 Prefactor = 14.889 norm = 7.06544 Prefactor = 0.516754 norm = 3.53226 Prefactor = 6.78729 Prefactor = 10.451 norm = 0 norm = 2.83055 Prefactor = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 44.4746 Prefactor = 32.9574 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 norm = 10.8916 Prefactor = 7.21645e-10 Prefactor = 1.4494e-07 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 8.98367 Normalizat = 0.738453 Prefactor = 1.10161 /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/pyfits/__init__.py:22: PyFITSDeprecationWarning: PyFITS is deprecated, please use astropy.io.fits PyFITSDeprecationWarning) # noqa Likelihood Analysis Tool Support Contact: Daniel Kocevski (daniel.kocevski@nasa.gov) Importing modules... This is make3FGLxml version 01r0. The default diffuse model files and names are for pass 8 and assume you have v10r00p05 of the Fermi Science Tools or higher. This is make4FGLDR3xml version 01r09. The default diffuse model files and names are for P8R3, 4FGL DRs, and the default fermitools directory locations. WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/matplotlib/cbook/deprecation.py:106: MatplotlibDeprecationWarning: The mpl_toolkits.axes_grid module was deprecated in version 2.1. Use mpl_toolkits.axes_grid1 and mpl_toolkits.axisartist provies the same functionality instead. warnings.warn(message, mplDeprecation, stacklevel=1) ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5966.409 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 206 CALLS 2293 TOTAL EDM= .94E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 2.6% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .51045E-05 24.717 .15987E-05** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .11464E-05 115.25 .12046E-05** at limit ** 3 Prefactor .37081E-07 39.662 .20386E-05** at limit ** 4 Prefactor 20.063 17.690 .15123E-06 .21540E-01 5 norm .0000 33.596 .16274E-05** at limit ** 6 Prefactor .25577E-05 16.952 -.22054E-06** at limit ** 7 norm 5.9674 7.8797 .24886E-06 .13208E-02 8 Prefactor 14.889 11.535 .49876E-06 .12170 9 norm 7.0654 7.8060 -.24782E-06 .27814E-03 10 Prefactor .51675 .92374 .77511E-07 -.92044E-03 11 norm 3.5323 2.0513 -.25002E-06 -.31618E-02 12 Prefactor 6.7873 6.5336 .24904E-06 .11178E-02 13 Prefactor 10.451 6.8210 -.80518E-08 -.62473E-03 14 norm .0000 .98627 .21111E-06** at limit ** 15 norm 2.8305 2.7198 -.30975E-06 -.11879E-03 16 Prefactor .55511E-10 3.5834 .12850E-06** at limit ** 17 Prefactor 44.475 60.081 -.54679E-06 .19902E-01 18 Prefactor 32.957 3.1365 -.46670E-07 -.15785E-01 19 Prefactor .44409E-09 5.3706 .34749E-06** at limit ** 20 norm 10.892 12.762 .33954E-06 .59138E-02 21 Prefactor .72164E-09 6.1398 .51281E-06** at limit ** 22 Prefactor .14494E-06 18.918 .30752E-06** at limit ** 23 Prefactor .0000 2.2574 .50368E-07** at limit ** 24 Prefactor 8.9837 14.772 .17805E-06 .36523E-01 25 Normalizat .73845 .20195 -.11853E-04 -.18812E-04 26 Prefactor 1.1016 .21805 .94743E-05 -.21144E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 5.10453e-06 Prefactor = 1.14636e-06 Prefactor = 3.70814e-08 Prefactor = 20.0634 norm = 0 Prefactor = 2.55768e-06 norm = 5.96742 Prefactor = 14.889 norm = 7.06544 Prefactor = 0.516754 norm = 3.53226 Prefactor = 6.78729 Prefactor = 10.451 norm = 0 norm = 2.83055 Prefactor = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 44.4746 Prefactor = 32.9574 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 norm = 10.8916 Prefactor = 7.21645e-10 Prefactor = 1.4494e-07 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 8.98367 Normalizat = 0.738453 Prefactor = 1.10161 _V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/35815256/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits.....................! real 24.42 user 21.26 sys 1.08 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/35815256/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/35815256/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/35815256/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/35815256/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/35815256/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1516.1+4351' 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 1.184e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/35815256/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/35815256/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/35815256/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/35815256/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/35815256/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.50034773 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.41006608 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .34467E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .11005E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' .15057E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' 20.219 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .18182E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .13961E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' 5.9513 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' 14.845 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'norm ' 7.0387 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' .51609 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'norm ' 3.5358 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 6.7709 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 10.438 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .24869E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' 2.8304 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'Prefactor ' .53135E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' 45.801 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 33.055 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' .59611E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' 10.910 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .65733E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' .10156E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' .48525E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 9.3343 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Normalizat' .73791 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 26 'Prefactor ' 1.1015 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). number of points = 7443 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198 RA = 229.049, Dec = 43.8527 tmin = 809049601, tmax = 809308801 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='35815792', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2026-08-25 11:58:12.049700', time_epoch_executed='1787684292.05' WHERE source_name='4FGL J1516.1+4351' and cadence='daily' and bin_id='2198' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/35815792 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/35815792/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=809049601.0 && nMetStart<809308801.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=809049601.0 && nMetStart<809308801.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 46 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft1_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=809049601.0 && nMetStart<809308801.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 46 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft1_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits ra=229.049 dec=43.8527 rad=12.0 tmin=809049601.0 tmax=809308801.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 2.74 user 2.15 sys 0.18 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 0.94 user 0.22 sys 0.12 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 532 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits sctable="SC_DATA" ou ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 5966.409 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 520 CALLS 2813 TOTAL EDM= .59E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .51045E-05 31.856 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .11464E-05 114.99 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .37081E-07 39.661 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 Prefactor 20.063 17.917 .22247E-03 -1.5618 5 norm .0000 32.087 .17159E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .25577E-05 21.346 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 norm 5.9674 8.0086 .41138E-03 -1.5659 8 Prefactor 14.889 14.592 .25969E-03 -1.5631 9 norm 7.0654 7.8517 .37788E-03 -1.5655 10 Prefactor .51675 12.037 .93728E-02 -1.5694 11 norm 3.5323 2.0622 .53733E-03 -1.5670 12 Prefactor 6.7873 6.6311 .38537E-03 -1.5656 13 Prefactor 10.451 6.8291 .30988E-03 -1.5643 14 norm .0000 .96658 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm 2.8305 2.7309 .60422E-03 -1.5674 16 Prefactor .55511E-10 3.5810 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor 44.475 62.225 .14777E-03 -1.5575 18 Prefactor 32.957 22.909 .17396E-03 -1.5593 19 Prefactor .44409E-09 5.3694 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 norm 10.892 12.770 .30308E-03 -1.5642 21 Prefactor .72164E-09 6.1465 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 22 Prefactor .14494E-06 19.310 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 23 Prefactor .0000 2.2513 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 24 Prefactor 8.9837 15.362 .32778E-03 -1.5648 25 Normalizat .73845 .17761 .42794E-01 -1.0239 26 Prefactor 1.1016 .18787 .37531E-01 -.89415 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 5.86123e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.025504 2 0.0229628 3 0.00242505 4 17.9171 5 2.11903e-05 6 0.0147781 7 8.00863 8 14.5922 9 7.85172 10 4.98803 11 2.06218 12 6.63108 13 6.82911 14 3.57242e-08 15 2.73088 16 3.44563e-05 17 62.2261 18 22.9091 19 9.79497e-05 20 12.7705 21 0.000130742 22 0.00334587 23 6.74997e-06 24 15.3621 25 0.177746 26 0.187981 tfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815637/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/35815637/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits .....................! real 9.14 user 8.28 sys 0.20 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815637/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815637/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/35815637/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815637/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/35815637/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits .....................! real 73.67 user 68.16 sys 4.30 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 195 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J1516.1+4351 @ 229.049 43.8527 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815637/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815637/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815637/cmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=229.049 yref=43.8527 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.57 user 0.24 sys 0.12 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815637/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815637/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815637/cmap_HighResolution_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=229.049 yref=43.8527 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.83 user 0.24 sys 0.12 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815637/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815637/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/35815637/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding source GALDone. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.40912995 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 5.551e-11 3.446e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 1.102e+00 1.880e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 7.385e-01 1.777e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 5.92442548002e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00459695996852 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/35815173/likelihoodResults_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40971792 delta logL = -0.000587969642766 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40912997 delta logL = -2.37578205997e-08 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .27756E-09 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 1.0095 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .73841 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1017 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5966.409 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 27 CALLS 231 TOTAL EDM= .13E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 5.0534 .29827E-06** at limit ** 2 Index 2.1245 2.2299 -.10312E-04 .0000 3 Normalizat .73845 .19545 -.21725E-06 -.29444E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1016 .21320 .17941E-06 -.34447E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 2.12449 Normalizat = 0.738453 Prefactor = 1.10161 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 5966.409 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 11 CALLS 242 TOTAL EDM= .13E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 5.0505 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index .49357 1.8975 -.10312E-04 -.61273 3 Normalizat .73845 1.0781 -.21725E-06 -1.0239 4 Prefactor 1.1016 1.1475 .17941E-06 -.89415 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 1.2754e-12 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.07529e-05 2 1.77529 3 1.11172 4 1.17484 ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5966.409 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 206 CALLS 2293 TOTAL EDM= .94E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 2.6% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .51045E-05 24.717 .15987E-05** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .11464E-05 115.25 .12046E-05** at limit ** 3 Prefactor .37081E-07 39.662 .20386E-05** at limit ** 4 Prefactor 20.063 17.690 .15123E-06 .21540E-01 5 norm .0000 33.596 .16274E-05** at limit ** 6 Prefactor .25577E-05 16.952 -.22054E-06** at limit ** 7 norm 5.9674 7.8797 .24886E-06 .13208E-02 8 Prefactor 14.889 11.535 .49876E-06 .12170 9 norm 7.0654 7.8060 -.24782E-06 .27814E-03 10 Prefactor .51675 .92374 .77511E-07 -.92044E-03 11 norm 3.5323 2.0513 -.25002E-06 -.31618E-02 12 Prefactor 6.7873 6.5336 .24904E-06 .11178E-02 13 Prefactor 10.451 6.8210 -.80518E-08 -.62473E-03 14 norm .0000 .98627 .21111E-06** at limit ** 15 norm 2.8305 2.7198 -.30975E-06 -.11879E-03 16 Prefactor .55511E-10 3.5834 .12850E-06** at limit ** 17 Prefactor 44.475 60.081 -.54679E-06 .19902E-01 18 Prefactor 32.957 3.1365 -.46670E-07 -.15785E-01 19 Prefactor .44409E-09 5.3706 .34749E-06** at limit ** 20 norm 10.892 12.762 .33954E-06 .59138E-02 21 Prefactor .72164E-09 6.1398 .51281E-06** at limit ** 22 Prefactor .14494E-06 18.918 .30752E-06** at limit ** 23 Prefactor .0000 2.2574 .50368E-07** at limit ** 24 Prefactor 8.9837 14.772 .17805E-06 .36523E-01 25 Normalizat .73845 .20195 -.11853E-04 -.18812E-04 26 Prefactor 1.1016 .21805 .94743E-05 -.21144E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 5.10453e-06 Prefactor = 1.14636e-06 Prefactor = 3.70814e-08 Prefactor = 20.0634 norm = 0 Prefactor = 2.55768e-06 norm = 5.96742 Prefactor = 14.889 norm = 7.06544 Prefactor = 0.516754 norm = 3.53226 Prefactor = 6.78729 Prefactor = 10.451 norm = 0 norm = 2.83055 Prefactor = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 44.4746 Prefactor = 32.9574 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 norm = 10.8916 Prefactor = 7.21645e-10 Prefactor = 1.4494e-07 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 8.98367 Normalizat = 0.738453 Prefactor = 1.10161 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40912995 delta logL = 8.18545231596e-12 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 1.075e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.124e+00 1.775e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 1.102e+00 1.175e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 7.385e-01 1.112e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/35815173/cmap_HighResolution_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='4.60e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='5.92e-08', time_completed='2026-08-25 11:59:01.702617', job_id='35815173', GAL2='1.10', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.74', EG='0.74', time_epoch_completed='1787684341.7', return_code2='101', ts='-0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='1.10', dlogl='8.19e-12', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.46' WHERE bin_id='2198' AND source_name='4FGL J1516.1+4351' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Aug 25 11:59:01 PDT 2026 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 5966.409 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 520 CALLS 2813 TOTAL EDM= .59E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .51045E-05 31.856 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .11464E-05 114.99 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .37081E-07 39.661 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 Prefactor 20.063 17.917 .22247E-03 -1.5618 5 norm .0000 32.087 .17159E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .25577E-05 21.346 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 norm 5.9674 8.0086 .41138E-03 -1.5659 8 Prefactor 14.889 14.592 .25969E-03 -1.5631 9 norm 7.0654 7.8517 .37788E-03 -1.5655 10 Prefactor .51675 12.037 .93728E-02 -1.5694 11 norm 3.5323 2.0622 .53733E-03 -1.5670 12 Prefactor 6.7873 6.6311 .38537E-03 -1.5656 13 Prefactor 10.451 6.8291 .30988E-03 -1.5643 14 norm .0000 .96658 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm 2.8305 2.7309 .60422E-03 -1.5674 16 Prefactor .55511E-10 3.5810 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor 44.475 62.225 .14777E-03 -1.5575 18 Prefactor 32.957 22.909 .17396E-03 -1.5593 19 Prefactor .44409E-09 5.3694 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 norm 10.892 12.770 .30308E-03 -1.5642 21 Prefactor .72164E-09 6.1465 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 22 Prefactor .14494E-06 19.310 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 23 Prefactor .0000 2.2513 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 24 Prefactor 8.9837 15.362 .32778E-03 -1.5648 25 Normalizat .73845 .17761 .42794E-01 -1.0239 26 Prefactor 1.1016 .18787 .37531E-01 -.89415 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 5.86123e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.025504 2 0.0229628 3 0.00242505 4 17.9171 5 2.11903e-05 6 0.0147781 7 8.00863 8 14.5922 9 7.85172 10 4.98803 11 2.06218 12 6.63108 13 6.82911 14 3.57242e-08 15 2.73088 16 3.44563e-05 17 62.2261 18 22.9091 19 9.79497e-05 20 12.7705 21 0.000130742 22 0.00334587 23 6.74997e-06 24 15.3621 25 0.177746 26 0.187981 number of points = 7443 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198 RA = 229.049, Dec = 43.8527 tmin = 809049601, tmax = 809308801 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='35815795', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2026-08-25 11:58:21.457562', time_epoch_executed='1787684301.46' WHERE source_name='4FGL J1516.1+4351' and cadence='daily' and bin_id='2198' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/35815795 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/35815795/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=809049601.0 && nMetStart<809308801.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=809049601.0 && nMetStart<809308801.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 46 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft1_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=809049601.0 && nMetStart<809308801.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 46 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft1_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits ra=229.049 dec=43.8527 rad=12.0 tmin=809049601.0 tmax=809308801.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 3.63 user 2.14 sys 0.20 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 0.73 user 0.21 sys 0.12 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 532 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits sctable="SC_DATA" ou ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 5966.409 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 520 CALLS 2813 TOTAL EDM= .59E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .51045E-05 31.856 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .11464E-05 114.99 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .37081E-07 39.661 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 Prefactor 20.063 17.917 .22247E-03 -1.5618 5 norm .0000 32.087 .17159E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .25577E-05 21.346 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 norm 5.9674 8.0086 .41138E-03 -1.5659 8 Prefactor 14.889 14.592 .25969E-03 -1.5631 9 norm 7.0654 7.8517 .37788E-03 -1.5655 10 Prefactor .51675 12.037 .93728E-02 -1.5694 11 norm 3.5323 2.0622 .53733E-03 -1.5670 12 Prefactor 6.7873 6.6311 .38537E-03 -1.5656 13 Prefactor 10.451 6.8291 .30988E-03 -1.5643 14 norm .0000 .96658 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm 2.8305 2.7309 .60422E-03 -1.5674 16 Prefactor .55511E-10 3.5810 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor 44.475 62.225 .14777E-03 -1.5575 18 Prefactor 32.957 22.909 .17396E-03 -1.5593 19 Prefactor .44409E-09 5.3694 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 norm 10.892 12.770 .30308E-03 -1.5642 21 Prefactor .72164E-09 6.1465 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 22 Prefactor .14494E-06 19.310 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 23 Prefactor .0000 2.2513 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 24 Prefactor 8.9837 15.362 .32778E-03 -1.5648 25 Normalizat .73845 .17761 .42794E-01 -1.0239 26 Prefactor 1.1016 .18787 .37531E-01 -.89415 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 5.86123e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.025504 2 0.0229628 3 0.00242505 4 17.9171 5 2.11903e-05 6 0.0147781 7 8.00863 8 14.5922 9 7.85172 10 4.98803 11 2.06218 12 6.63108 13 6.82911 14 3.57242e-08 15 2.73088 16 3.44563e-05 17 62.2261 18 22.9091 19 9.79497e-05 20 12.7705 21 0.000130742 22 0.00334587 23 6.74997e-06 24 15.3621 25 0.177746 26 0.187981 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.40912995 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 5.551e-11 3.446e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 1.102e+00 1.880e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 7.385e-01 1.777e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 5.92442548002e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00459695996852 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/35815255/likelihoodResults_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40971792 delta logL = -0.000587969642766 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40912997 delta logL = -2.37578205997e-08 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .27756E-09 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 1.0095 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .73841 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1017 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5966.409 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 27 CALLS 231 TOTAL EDM= .13E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 5.0534 .29827E-06** at limit ** 2 Index 2.1245 2.2299 -.10312E-04 .0000 3 Normalizat .73845 .19545 -.21725E-06 -.29444E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1016 .21320 .17941E-06 -.34447E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 2.12449 Normalizat = 0.738453 Prefactor = 1.10161 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 5966.409 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 11 CALLS 242 TOTAL EDM= .13E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 5.0505 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index .49357 1.8975 -.10312E-04 -.61273 3 Normalizat .73845 1.0781 -.21725E-06 -1.0239 4 Prefactor 1.1016 1.1475 .17941E-06 -.89415 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 1.2754e-12 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.07529e-05 2 1.77529 3 1.11172 4 1.17484 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40912995 delta logL = 8.18545231596e-12 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 1.075e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.124e+00 1.775e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 1.102e+00 1.175e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 7.385e-01 1.112e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/35815255/cmap_HighResolution_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='4.60e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='5.92e-08', time_completed='2026-08-25 11:59:28.229834', job_id='35815255', GAL2='1.10', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.74', EG='0.74', time_epoch_completed='1787684368.23', return_code2='101', ts='-0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='1.10', dlogl='8.19e-12', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.46' WHERE bin_id='2198' AND source_name='4FGL J1516.1+4351' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Aug 25 11:59:28 PDT 2026 L_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/35815427/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits.....................! real 23.48 user 21.17 sys 1.11 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/35815427/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/35815427/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/35815427/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/35815427/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/35815427/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1516.1+4351' 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 1.184e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/35815427/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/35815427/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/35815427/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/35815427/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/35815427/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.50034773 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.41006608 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .34467E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .11005E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' .15057E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' 20.219 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .18182E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .13961E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' 5.9513 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' 14.845 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'norm ' 7.0387 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' .51609 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'norm ' 3.5358 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 6.7709 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 10.438 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .24869E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' 2.8304 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'Prefactor ' .53135E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' 45.801 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 33.055 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' .59611E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' 10.910 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .65733E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' .10156E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' .48525E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 9.3343 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Normalizat' .73791 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 26 'Prefactor ' 1.1015 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 *********Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.40912995 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 5.551e-11 3.446e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 1.102e+00 1.880e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 7.385e-01 1.777e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 5.92442548002e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00459695996852 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/35815269/likelihoodResults_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40971792 delta logL = -0.000587969642766 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40912997 delta logL = -2.37578205997e-08 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .27756E-09 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 1.0095 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .73841 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1017 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5966.409 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 27 CALLS 231 TOTAL EDM= .13E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 5.0534 .29827E-06** at limit ** 2 Index 2.1245 2.2299 -.10312E-04 .0000 3 Normalizat .73845 .19545 -.21725E-06 -.29444E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1016 .21320 .17941E-06 -.34447E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 2.12449 Normalizat = 0.738453 Prefactor = 1.10161 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 5966.409 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 11 CALLS 242 TOTAL EDM= .13E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 5.0505 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index .49357 1.8975 -.10312E-04 -.61273 3 Normalizat .73845 1.0781 -.21725E-06 -1.0239 4 Prefactor 1.1016 1.1475 .17941E-06 -.89415 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 1.2754e-12 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.07529e-05 2 1.77529 3 1.11172 4 1.17484 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40912995 delta logL = 8.18545231596e-12 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 1.075e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.124e+00 1.775e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 1.102e+00 1.175e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 7.385e-01 1.112e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/35815269/cmap_HighResolution_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='4.60e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='5.92e-08', time_completed='2026-08-25 11:59:35.906724', job_id='35815269', GAL2='1.10', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.74', EG='0.74', time_epoch_completed='1787684375.91', return_code2='101', ts='-0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='1.10', dlogl='8.19e-12', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.46' WHERE bin_id='2198' AND source_name='4FGL J1516.1+4351' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Aug 25 11:59:36 PDT 2026 * ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5966.409 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 206 CALLS 2293 TOTAL EDM= .94E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 2.6% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .51045E-05 24.717 .15987E-05** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .11464E-05 115.25 .12046E-05** at limit ** 3 Prefactor .37081E-07 39.662 .20386E-05** at limit ** 4 Prefactor 20.063 17.690 .15123E-06 .21540E-01 5 norm .0000 33.596 .16274E-05** at limit ** 6 Prefactor .25577E-05 16.952 -.22054E-06** at limit ** 7 norm 5.9674 7.8797 .24886E-06 .13208E-02 8 Prefactor 14.889 11.535 .49876E-06 .12170 9 norm 7.0654 7.8060 -.24782E-06 .27814E-03 10 Prefactor .51675 .92374 .77511E-07 -.92044E-03 11 norm 3.5323 2.0513 -.25002E-06 -.31618E-02 12 Prefactor 6.7873 6.5336 .24904E-06 .11178E-02 13 Prefactor 10.451 6.8210 -.80518E-08 -.62473E-03 14 norm .0000 .98627 .21111E-06** at limit ** 15 norm 2.8305 2.7198 -.30975E-06 -.11879E-03 16 Prefactor .55511E-10 3.5834 .12850E-06** at limit ** 17 Prefactor 44.475 60.081 -.54679E-06 .19902E-01 18 Prefactor 32.957 3.1365 -.46670E-07 -.15785E-01 19 Prefactor .44409E-09 5.3706 .34749E-06** at limit ** 20 norm 10.892 12.762 .33954E-06 .59138E-02 21 Prefactor .72164E-09 6.1398 .51281E-06** at limit ** 22 Prefactor .14494E-06 18.918 .30752E-06** at limit ** 23 Prefactor .0000 2.2574 .50368E-07** at limit ** 24 Prefactor 8.9837 14.772 .17805E-06 .36523E-01 25 Normalizat .73845 .20195 -.11853E-04 -.18812E-04 26 Prefactor 1.1016 .21805 .94743E-05 -.21144E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 5.10453e-06 Prefactor = 1.14636e-06 Prefactor = 3.70814e-08 Prefactor = 20.0634 norm = 0 Prefactor = 2.55768e-06 norm = 5.96742 Prefactor = 14.889 norm = 7.06544 Prefactor = 0.516754 norm = 3.53226 Prefactor = 6.78729 Prefactor = 10.451 norm = 0 norm = 2.83055 Prefactor = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 44.4746 Prefactor = 32.9574 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 norm = 10.8916 Prefactor = 7.21645e-10 Prefactor = 1.4494e-07 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 8.98367 Normalizat = 0.738453 Prefactor = 1.10161 tfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815741/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/35815741/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits .....................! real 8.87 user 8.16 sys 0.23 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815741/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815741/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/35815741/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815741/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/35815741/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits .....................! real 72.89 user 67.51 sys 4.20 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 195 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J1516.1+4351 @ 229.049 43.8527 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815741/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815741/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815741/cmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=229.049 yref=43.8527 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.78 user 0.23 sys 0.12 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815741/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815741/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815741/cmap_HighResolution_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=229.049 yref=43.8527 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.78 user 0.24 sys 0.12 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815741/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815741/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/35815741/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding source GALnumber of points = 7443 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198 RA = 229.049, Dec = 43.8527 tmin = 809049601, tmax = 809308801 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='35815818', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2026-08-25 11:58:52.623098', time_epoch_executed='1787684332.62' WHERE source_name='4FGL J1516.1+4351' and cadence='daily' and bin_id='2198' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/35815818 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/35815818/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=809049601.0 && nMetStart<809308801.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=809049601.0 && nMetStart<809308801.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 46 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft1_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=809049601.0 && nMetStart<809308801.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 46 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft1_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits ra=229.049 dec=43.8527 rad=12.0 tmin=809049601.0 tmax=809308801.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 2.81 user 2.21 sys 0.17 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 0.93 user 0.20 sys 0.13 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 532 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits sctable="SC_DATA" ouDone. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.40912995 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 5.551e-11 3.446e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 1.102e+00 1.880e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 7.385e-01 1.777e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 5.92442548002e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00459695996852 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/35815256/likelihoodResults_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40971792 delta logL = -0.000587969642766 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40912997 delta logL = -2.37578205997e-08 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .27756E-09 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 1.0095 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .73841 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1017 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5966.409 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 27 CALLS 231 TOTAL EDM= .13E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 5.0534 .29827E-06** at limit ** 2 Index 2.1245 2.2299 -.10312E-04 .0000 3 Normalizat .73845 .19545 -.21725E-06 -.29444E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1016 .21320 .17941E-06 -.34447E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 2.12449 Normalizat = 0.738453 Prefactor = 1.10161 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 5966.409 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 11 CALLS 242 TOTAL EDM= .13E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 5.0505 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index .49357 1.8975 -.10312E-04 -.61273 3 Normalizat .73845 1.0781 -.21725E-06 -1.0239 4 Prefactor 1.1016 1.1475 .17941E-06 -.89415 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 1.2754e-12 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.07529e-05 2 1.77529 3 1.11172 4 1.17484 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40912995 delta logL = 8.18545231596e-12 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 1.075e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.124e+00 1.775e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 1.102e+00 1.175e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 7.385e-01 1.112e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/35815256/cmap_HighResolution_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='4.60e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='5.92e-08', time_completed='2026-08-25 11:59:53.065649', job_id='35815256', GAL2='1.10', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.74', EG='0.74', time_epoch_completed='1787684393.07', return_code2='101', ts='-0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='1.10', dlogl='8.19e-12', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.46' WHERE bin_id='2198' AND source_name='4FGL J1516.1+4351' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Aug 25 11:59:53 PDT 2026 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 5966.409 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 520 CALLS 2813 TOTAL EDM= .59E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .51045E-05 31.856 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .11464E-05 114.99 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .37081E-07 39.661 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 Prefactor 20.063 17.917 .22247E-03 -1.5618 5 norm .0000 32.087 .17159E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .25577E-05 21.346 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 norm 5.9674 8.0086 .41138E-03 -1.5659 8 Prefactor 14.889 14.592 .25969E-03 -1.5631 9 norm 7.0654 7.8517 .37788E-03 -1.5655 10 Prefactor .51675 12.037 .93728E-02 -1.5694 11 norm 3.5323 2.0622 .53733E-03 -1.5670 12 Prefactor 6.7873 6.6311 .38537E-03 -1.5656 13 Prefactor 10.451 6.8291 .30988E-03 -1.5643 14 norm .0000 .96658 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm 2.8305 2.7309 .60422E-03 -1.5674 16 Prefactor .55511E-10 3.5810 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor 44.475 62.225 .14777E-03 -1.5575 18 Prefactor 32.957 22.909 .17396E-03 -1.5593 19 Prefactor .44409E-09 5.3694 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 norm 10.892 12.770 .30308E-03 -1.5642 21 Prefactor .72164E-09 6.1465 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 22 Prefactor .14494E-06 19.310 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 23 Prefactor .0000 2.2513 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 24 Prefactor 8.9837 15.362 .32778E-03 -1.5648 25 Normalizat .73845 .17761 .42794E-01 -1.0239 26 Prefactor 1.1016 .18787 .37531E-01 -.89415 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 5.86123e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.025504 2 0.0229628 3 0.00242505 4 17.9171 5 2.11903e-05 6 0.0147781 7 8.00863 8 14.5922 9 7.85172 10 4.98803 11 2.06218 12 6.63108 13 6.82911 14 3.57242e-08 15 2.73088 16 3.44563e-05 17 62.2261 18 22.9091 19 9.79497e-05 20 12.7705 21 0.000130742 22 0.00334587 23 6.74997e-06 24 15.3621 25 0.177746 26 0.187981 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.40912995 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 5.551e-11 3.446e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 1.102e+00 1.880e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 7.385e-01 1.777e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 5.92442548002e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00459695996852 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/35815427/likelihoodResults_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40971792 delta logL = -0.000587969642766 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40912997 delta logL = -2.37578205997e-08 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .27756E-09 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 1.0095 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .73841 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1017 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5966.409 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 27 CALLS 231 TOTAL EDM= .13E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 5.0534 .29827E-06** at limit ** 2 Index 2.1245 2.2299 -.10312E-04 .0000 3 Normalizat .73845 .19545 -.21725E-06 -.29444E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1016 .21320 .17941E-06 -.34447E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 2.12449 Normalizat = 0.738453 Prefactor = 1.10161 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 5966.409 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 11 CALLS 242 TOTAL EDM= .13E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 5.0505 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index .49357 1.8975 -.10312E-04 -.61273 3 Normalizat .73845 1.0781 -.21725E-06 -1.0239 4 Prefactor 1.1016 1.1475 .17941E-06 -.89415 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 1.2754e-12 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.07529e-05 2 1.77529 3 1.11172 4 1.17484 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40912995 delta logL = 8.18545231596e-12 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 1.075e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.124e+00 1.775e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 1.102e+00 1.175e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 7.385e-01 1.112e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/35815427/cmap_HighResolution_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='4.60e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='5.92e-08', time_completed='2026-08-25 12:00:32.963600', job_id='35815427', GAL2='1.10', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.74', EG='0.74', time_epoch_completed='1787684432.96', return_code2='101', ts='-0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='1.10', dlogl='8.19e-12', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.46' WHERE bin_id='2198' AND source_name='4FGL J1516.1+4351' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Aug 25 12:00:33 PDT 2026 _V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/35815637/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits.....................! real 21.07 user 19.60 sys 0.89 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/35815637/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/35815637/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/35815637/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/35815637/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/35815637/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1516.1+4351' 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 1.184e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/35815637/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/35815637/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/35815637/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/35815637/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/35815637/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.50034773 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.41006608 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .34467E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .11005E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' .15057E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' 20.219 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .18182E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .13961E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' 5.9513 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' 14.845 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'norm ' 7.0387 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' .51609 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'norm ' 3.5358 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 6.7709 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 10.438 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .24869E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' 2.8304 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'Prefactor ' .53135E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' 45.801 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 33.055 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' .59611E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' 10.910 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .65733E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' .10156E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' .48525E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 9.3343 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Normalizat' .73791 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 26 'Prefactor ' 1.1015 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 **********tfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits .....................! real 9.08 user 8.26 sys 0.25 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits .....................! real 73.40 user 67.95 sys 4.17 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 195 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J1516.1+4351 @ 229.049 43.8527 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/cmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=229.049 yref=43.8527 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.77 user 0.22 sys 0.14 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/cmap_HighResolution_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=229.049 yref=43.8527 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.80 user 0.24 sys 0.12 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5966.409 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 206 CALLS 2293 TOTAL EDM= .94E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 2.6% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .51045E-05 24.717 .15987E-05** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .11464E-05 115.25 .12046E-05** at limit ** 3 Prefactor .37081E-07 39.662 .20386E-05** at limit ** 4 Prefactor 20.063 17.690 .15123E-06 .21540E-01 5 norm .0000 33.596 .16274E-05** at limit ** 6 Prefactor .25577E-05 16.952 -.22054E-06** at limit ** 7 norm 5.9674 7.8797 .24886E-06 .13208E-02 8 Prefactor 14.889 11.535 .49876E-06 .12170 9 norm 7.0654 7.8060 -.24782E-06 .27814E-03 10 Prefactor .51675 .92374 .77511E-07 -.92044E-03 11 norm 3.5323 2.0513 -.25002E-06 -.31618E-02 12 Prefactor 6.7873 6.5336 .24904E-06 .11178E-02 13 Prefactor 10.451 6.8210 -.80518E-08 -.62473E-03 14 norm .0000 .98627 .21111E-06** at limit ** 15 norm 2.8305 2.7198 -.30975E-06 -.11879E-03 16 Prefactor .55511E-10 3.5834 .12850E-06** at limit ** 17 Prefactor 44.475 60.081 -.54679E-06 .19902E-01 18 Prefactor 32.957 3.1365 -.46670E-07 -.15785E-01 19 Prefactor .44409E-09 5.3706 .34749E-06** at limit ** 20 norm 10.892 12.762 .33954E-06 .59138E-02 21 Prefactor .72164E-09 6.1398 .51281E-06** at limit ** 22 Prefactor .14494E-06 18.918 .30752E-06** at limit ** 23 Prefactor .0000 2.2574 .50368E-07** at limit ** 24 Prefactor 8.9837 14.772 .17805E-06 .36523E-01 25 Normalizat .73845 .20195 -.11853E-04 -.18812E-04 26 Prefactor 1.1016 .21805 .94743E-05 -.21144E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 5.10453e-06 Prefactor = 1.14636e-06 Prefactor = 3.70814e-08 Prefactor = 20.0634 norm = 0 Prefactor = 2.55768e-06 norm = 5.96742 Prefactor = 14.889 norm = 7.06544 Prefactor = 0.516754 norm = 3.53226 Prefactor = 6.78729 Prefactor = 10.451 norm = 0 norm = 2.83055 Prefactor = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 44.4746 Prefactor = 32.9574 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 norm = 10.8916 Prefactor = 7.21645e-10 Prefactor = 1.4494e-07 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 8.98367 Normalizat = 0.738453 Prefactor = 1.10161 tfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits .....................! real 8.94 user 8.23 sys 0.22 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits .....................! real 73.23 user 67.83 sys 4.22 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 195 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J1516.1+4351 @ 229.049 43.8527 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/cmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=229.049 yref=43.8527 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 1.56 user 0.23 sys 0.11 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/cmap_HighResolution_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=229.049 yref=43.8527 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.75 user 0.23 sys 0.13 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 5966.409 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 520 CALLS 2813 TOTAL EDM= .59E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .51045E-05 31.856 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .11464E-05 114.99 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .37081E-07 39.661 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 Prefactor 20.063 17.917 .22247E-03 -1.5618 5 norm .0000 32.087 .17159E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .25577E-05 21.346 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 norm 5.9674 8.0086 .41138E-03 -1.5659 8 Prefactor 14.889 14.592 .25969E-03 -1.5631 9 norm 7.0654 7.8517 .37788E-03 -1.5655 10 Prefactor .51675 12.037 .93728E-02 -1.5694 11 norm 3.5323 2.0622 .53733E-03 -1.5670 12 Prefactor 6.7873 6.6311 .38537E-03 -1.5656 13 Prefactor 10.451 6.8291 .30988E-03 -1.5643 14 norm .0000 .96658 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm 2.8305 2.7309 .60422E-03 -1.5674 16 Prefactor .55511E-10 3.5810 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor 44.475 62.225 .14777E-03 -1.5575 18 Prefactor 32.957 22.909 .17396E-03 -1.5593 19 Prefactor .44409E-09 5.3694 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 norm 10.892 12.770 .30308E-03 -1.5642 21 Prefactor .72164E-09 6.1465 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 22 Prefactor .14494E-06 19.310 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 23 Prefactor .0000 2.2513 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 24 Prefactor 8.9837 15.362 .32778E-03 -1.5648 25 Normalizat .73845 .17761 .42794E-01 -1.0239 26 Prefactor 1.1016 .18787 .37531E-01 -.89415 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 5.86123e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.025504 2 0.0229628 3 0.00242505 4 17.9171 5 2.11903e-05 6 0.0147781 7 8.00863 8 14.5922 9 7.85172 10 4.98803 11 2.06218 12 6.63108 13 6.82911 14 3.57242e-08 15 2.73088 16 3.44563e-05 17 62.2261 18 22.9091 19 9.79497e-05 20 12.7705 21 0.000130742 22 0.00334587 23 6.74997e-06 24 15.3621 25 0.177746 26 0.187981 _V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/35815741/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits.....................! real 21.73 user 19.60 sys 1.20 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/35815741/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/35815741/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/35815741/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/35815741/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/35815741/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1516.1+4351' 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 1.184e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/35815741/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/35815741/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/35815741/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/35815741/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/35815741/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.50034773 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.41006608 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .34467E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .11005E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' .15057E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' 20.219 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .18182E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .13961E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' 5.9513 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' 14.845 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'norm ' 7.0387 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' .51609 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'norm ' 3.5358 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 6.7709 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 10.438 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .24869E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' 2.8304 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'Prefactor ' .53135E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' 45.801 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 33.055 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' .59611E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' 10.910 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .65733E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' .10156E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' .48525E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 9.3343 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Normalizat' .73791 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 26 'Prefactor ' 1.1015 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 **********Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.40912995 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 5.551e-11 3.446e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 1.102e+00 1.880e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 7.385e-01 1.777e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 5.92442548002e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00459695996852 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/35815637/likelihoodResults_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40971792 delta logL = -0.000587969642766 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40912997 delta logL = -2.37578205997e-08 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .27756E-09 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 1.0095 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .73841 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1017 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5966.409 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 27 CALLS 231 TOTAL EDM= .13E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 5.0534 .29827E-06** at limit ** 2 Index 2.1245 2.2299 -.10312E-04 .0000 3 Normalizat .73845 .19545 -.21725E-06 -.29444E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1016 .21320 .17941E-06 -.34447E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 2.12449 Normalizat = 0.738453 Prefactor = 1.10161 ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5966.409 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 206 CALLS 2293 TOTAL EDM= .94E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 2.6% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .51045E-05 24.717 .15987E-05** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .11464E-05 115.25 .12046E-05** at limit ** 3 Prefactor .37081E-07 39.662 .20386E-05** at limit ** 4 Prefactor 20.063 17.690 .15123E-06 .21540E-01 5 norm .0000 33.596 .16274E-05** at limit ** 6 Prefactor .25577E-05 16.952 -.22054E-06** at limit ** 7 norm 5.9674 7.8797 .24886E-06 .13208E-02 8 Prefactor 14.889 11.535 .49876E-06 .12170 9 norm 7.0654 7.8060 -.24782E-06 .27814E-03 10 Prefactor .51675 .92374 .77511E-07 -.92044E-03 11 norm 3.5323 2.0513 -.25002E-06 -.31618E-02 12 Prefactor 6.7873 6.5336 .24904E-06 .11178E-02 13 Prefactor 10.451 6.8210 -.80518E-08 -.62473E-03 14 norm .0000 .98627 .21111E-06** at limit ** 15 norm 2.8305 2.7198 -.30975E-06 -.11879E-03 16 Prefactor .55511E-10 3.5834 .12850E-06** at limit ** 17 Prefactor 44.475 60.081 -.54679E-06 .19902E-01 18 Prefactor 32.957 3.1365 -.46670E-07 -.15785E-01 19 Prefactor .44409E-09 5.3706 .34749E-06** at limit ** 20 norm 10.892 12.762 .33954E-06 .59138E-02 21 Prefactor .72164E-09 6.1398 .51281E-06** at limit ** 22 Prefactor .14494E-06 18.918 .30752E-06** at limit ** 23 Prefactor .0000 2.2574 .50368E-07** at limit ** 24 Prefactor 8.9837 14.772 .17805E-06 .36523E-01 25 Normalizat .73845 .20195 -.11853E-04 -.18812E-04 26 Prefactor 1.1016 .21805 .94743E-05 -.21144E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 5.10453e-06 Prefactor = 1.14636e-06 Prefactor = 3.70814e-08 Prefactor = 20.0634 norm = 0 Prefactor = 2.55768e-06 norm = 5.96742 Prefactor = 14.889 norm = 7.06544 Prefactor = 0.516754 norm = 3.53226 Prefactor = 6.78729 Prefactor = 10.451 norm = 0 norm = 2.83055 Prefactor = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 44.4746 Prefactor = 32.9574 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 norm = 10.8916 Prefactor = 7.21645e-10 Prefactor = 1.4494e-07 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 8.98367 Normalizat = 0.738453 Prefactor = 1.10161 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 5966.409 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 11 CALLS 242 TOTAL EDM= .13E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 5.0505 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index .49357 1.8975 -.10312E-04 -.61273 3 Normalizat .73845 1.0781 -.21725E-06 -1.0239 4 Prefactor 1.1016 1.1475 .17941E-06 -.89415 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 1.2754e-12 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.07529e-05 2 1.77529 3 1.11172 4 1.17484 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40912995 delta logL = 8.18545231596e-12 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 1.075e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.124e+00 1.775e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 1.102e+00 1.175e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 7.385e-01 1.112e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/35815637/cmap_HighResolution_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='4.60e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='5.92e-08', time_completed='2026-08-25 12:01:37.484215', job_id='35815637', GAL2='1.10', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.74', EG='0.74', time_epoch_completed='1787684497.48', return_code2='101', ts='-0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='1.10', dlogl='8.19e-12', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.46' WHERE bin_id='2198' AND source_name='4FGL J1516.1+4351' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Aug 25 12:01:37 PDT 2026 tfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits .....................! real 9.22 user 8.50 sys 0.24 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits .....................! real 76.24 user 70.16 sys 4.32 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 195 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J1516.1+4351 @ 229.049 43.8527 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/cmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=229.049 yref=43.8527 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.86 user 0.25 sys 0.11 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/cmap_HighResolution_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=229.049 yref=43.8527 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.86 user 0.24 sys 0.13 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 5966.409 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 520 CALLS 2813 TOTAL EDM= .59E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .51045E-05 31.856 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .11464E-05 114.99 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .37081E-07 39.661 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 Prefactor 20.063 17.917 .22247E-03 -1.5618 5 norm .0000 32.087 .17159E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .25577E-05 21.346 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 norm 5.9674 8.0086 .41138E-03 -1.5659 8 Prefactor 14.889 14.592 .25969E-03 -1.5631 9 norm 7.0654 7.8517 .37788E-03 -1.5655 10 Prefactor .51675 12.037 .93728E-02 -1.5694 11 norm 3.5323 2.0622 .53733E-03 -1.5670 12 Prefactor 6.7873 6.6311 .38537E-03 -1.5656 13 Prefactor 10.451 6.8291 .30988E-03 -1.5643 14 norm .0000 .96658 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm 2.8305 2.7309 .60422E-03 -1.5674 16 Prefactor .55511E-10 3.5810 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor 44.475 62.225 .14777E-03 -1.5575 18 Prefactor 32.957 22.909 .17396E-03 -1.5593 19 Prefactor .44409E-09 5.3694 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 norm 10.892 12.770 .30308E-03 -1.5642 21 Prefactor .72164E-09 6.1465 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 22 Prefactor .14494E-06 19.310 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 23 Prefactor .0000 2.2513 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 24 Prefactor 8.9837 15.362 .32778E-03 -1.5648 25 Normalizat .73845 .17761 .42794E-01 -1.0239 26 Prefactor 1.1016 .18787 .37531E-01 -.89415 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 5.86123e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.025504 2 0.0229628 3 0.00242505 4 17.9171 5 2.11903e-05 6 0.0147781 7 8.00863 8 14.5922 9 7.85172 10 4.98803 11 2.06218 12 6.63108 13 6.82911 14 3.57242e-08 15 2.73088 16 3.44563e-05 17 62.2261 18 22.9091 19 9.79497e-05 20 12.7705 21 0.000130742 22 0.00334587 23 6.74997e-06 24 15.3621 25 0.177746 26 0.187981 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.40912995 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 5.551e-11 3.446e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 1.102e+00 1.880e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 7.385e-01 1.777e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 5.92442548002e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00459695996852 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/35815741/likelihoodResults_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40971792 delta logL = -0.000587969642766 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40912997 delta logL = -2.37578205997e-08 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .27756E-09 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 1.0095 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .73841 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1017 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5966.409 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 27 CALLS 231 TOTAL EDM= .13E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 5.0534 .29827E-06** at limit ** 2 Index 2.1245 2.2299 -.10312E-04 .0000 3 Normalizat .73845 .19545 -.21725E-06 -.29444E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1016 .21320 .17941E-06 -.34447E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 2.12449 Normalizat = 0.738453 Prefactor = 1.10161 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 5966.409 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 11 CALLS 242 TOTAL EDM= .13E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 5.0505 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index .49357 1.8975 -.10312E-04 -.61273 3 Normalizat .73845 1.0781 -.21725E-06 -1.0239 4 Prefactor 1.1016 1.1475 .17941E-06 -.89415 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 1.2754e-12 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.07529e-05 2 1.77529 3 1.11172 4 1.17484 _V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits.....................! real 21.34 user 19.65 sys 0.90 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/35815792/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1516.1+4351' 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 1.184e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/35815792/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/35815792/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/35815792/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.50034773 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.41006608 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .34467E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .11005E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' .15057E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' 20.219 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .18182E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .13961E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' 5.9513 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' 14.845 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'norm ' 7.0387 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' .51609 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'norm ' 3.5358 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 6.7709 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 10.438 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .24869E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' 2.8304 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'Prefactor ' .53135E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' 45.801 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 33.055 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' .59611E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' 10.910 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .65733E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' .10156E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' .48525E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 9.3343 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Normalizat' .73791 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 26 'Prefactor ' 1.1015 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 **********shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40912995 delta logL = 8.18545231596e-12 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 1.075e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.124e+00 1.775e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 1.102e+00 1.175e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 7.385e-01 1.112e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/35815741/cmap_HighResolution_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='4.60e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='5.92e-08', time_completed='2026-08-25 12:02:23.428665', job_id='35815741', GAL2='1.10', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.74', EG='0.74', time_epoch_completed='1787684543.43', return_code2='101', ts='-0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='1.10', dlogl='8.19e-12', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.46' WHERE bin_id='2198' AND source_name='4FGL J1516.1+4351' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Aug 25 12:02:23 PDT 2026 ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5966.409 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 206 CALLS 2293 TOTAL EDM= .94E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 2.6% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .51045E-05 24.717 .15987E-05** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .11464E-05 115.25 .12046E-05** at limit ** 3 Prefactor .37081E-07 39.662 .20386E-05** at limit ** 4 Prefactor 20.063 17.690 .15123E-06 .21540E-01 5 norm .0000 33.596 .16274E-05** at limit ** 6 Prefactor .25577E-05 16.952 -.22054E-06** at limit ** 7 norm 5.9674 7.8797 .24886E-06 .13208E-02 8 Prefactor 14.889 11.535 .49876E-06 .12170 9 norm 7.0654 7.8060 -.24782E-06 .27814E-03 10 Prefactor .51675 .92374 .77511E-07 -.92044E-03 11 norm 3.5323 2.0513 -.25002E-06 -.31618E-02 12 Prefactor 6.7873 6.5336 .24904E-06 .11178E-02 13 Prefactor 10.451 6.8210 -.80518E-08 -.62473E-03 14 norm .0000 .98627 .21111E-06** at limit ** 15 norm 2.8305 2.7198 -.30975E-06 -.11879E-03 16 Prefactor .55511E-10 3.5834 .12850E-06** at limit ** 17 Prefactor 44.475 60.081 -.54679E-06 .19902E-01 18 Prefactor 32.957 3.1365 -.46670E-07 -.15785E-01 19 Prefactor .44409E-09 5.3706 .34749E-06** at limit ** 20 norm 10.892 12.762 .33954E-06 .59138E-02 21 Prefactor .72164E-09 6.1398 .51281E-06** at limit ** 22 Prefactor .14494E-06 18.918 .30752E-06** at limit ** 23 Prefactor .0000 2.2574 .50368E-07** at limit ** 24 Prefactor 8.9837 14.772 .17805E-06 .36523E-01 25 Normalizat .73845 .20195 -.11853E-04 -.18812E-04 26 Prefactor 1.1016 .21805 .94743E-05 -.21144E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 5.10453e-06 Prefactor = 1.14636e-06 Prefactor = 3.70814e-08 Prefactor = 20.0634 norm = 0 Prefactor = 2.55768e-06 norm = 5.96742 Prefactor = 14.889 norm = 7.06544 Prefactor = 0.516754 norm = 3.53226 Prefactor = 6.78729 Prefactor = 10.451 norm = 0 norm = 2.83055 Prefactor = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 44.4746 Prefactor = 32.9574 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 norm = 10.8916 Prefactor = 7.21645e-10 Prefactor = 1.4494e-07 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 8.98367 Normalizat = 0.738453 Prefactor = 1.10161 _V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits.....................! real 23.04 user 19.83 sys 1.03 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/35815795/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1516.1+4351' 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 1.184e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/35815795/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/35815795/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/35815795/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.50034773 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.41006608 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .34467E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .11005E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' .15057E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' 20.219 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .18182E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .13961E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' 5.9513 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' 14.845 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'norm ' 7.0387 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' .51609 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'norm ' 3.5358 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 6.7709 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 10.438 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .24869E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' 2.8304 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'Prefactor ' .53135E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' 45.801 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 33.055 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' .59611E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' 10.910 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .65733E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' .10156E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' .48525E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 9.3343 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Normalizat' .73791 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 26 'Prefactor ' 1.1015 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5966.409 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 206 CALLS 2293 TOTAL EDM= .94E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 2.6% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .51045E-05 24.717 .15987E-05** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .11464E-05 115.25 .12046E-05** at limit ** 3 Prefactor .37081E-07 39.662 .20386E-05** at limit ** 4 Prefactor 20.063 17.690 .15123E-06 .21540E-01 5 norm .0000 33.596 .16274E-05** at limit ** 6 Prefactor .25577E-05 16.952 -.22054E-06** at limit ** 7 norm 5.9674 7.8797 .24886E-06 .13208E-02 8 Prefactor 14.889 11.535 .49876E-06 .12170 9 norm 7.0654 7.8060 -.24782E-06 .27814E-03 10 Prefactor .51675 .92374 .77511E-07 -.92044E-03 11 norm 3.5323 2.0513 -.25002E-06 -.31618E-02 12 Prefactor 6.7873 6.5336 .24904E-06 .11178E-02 13 Prefactor 10.451 6.8210 -.80518E-08 -.62473E-03 14 norm .0000 .98627 .21111E-06** at limit ** 15 norm 2.8305 2.7198 -.30975E-06 -.11879E-03 16 Prefactor .55511E-10 3.5834 .12850E-06** at limit ** 17 Prefactor 44.475 60.081 -.54679E-06 .19902E-01 18 Prefactor 32.957 3.1365 -.46670E-07 -.15785E-01 19 Prefactor .44409E-09 5.3706 .34749E-06** at limit ** 20 norm 10.892 12.762 .33954E-06 .59138E-02 21 Prefactor .72164E-09 6.1398 .51281E-06** at limit ** 22 Prefactor .14494E-06 18.918 .30752E-06** at limit ** 23 Prefactor .0000 2.2574 .50368E-07** at limit ** 24 Prefactor 8.9837 14.772 .17805E-06 .36523E-01 25 Normalizat .73845 .20195 -.11853E-04 -.18812E-04 26 Prefactor 1.1016 .21805 .94743E-05 -.21144E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 5.10453e-06 Prefactor = 1.14636e-06 Prefactor = 3.70814e-08 Prefactor = 20.0634 norm = 0 Prefactor = 2.55768e-06 norm = 5.96742 Prefactor = 14.889 norm = 7.06544 Prefactor = 0.516754 norm = 3.53226 Prefactor = 6.78729 Prefactor = 10.451 norm = 0 norm = 2.83055 Prefactor = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 44.4746 Prefactor = 32.9574 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 norm = 10.8916 Prefactor = 7.21645e-10 Prefactor = 1.4494e-07 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 8.98367 Normalizat = 0.738453 Prefactor = 1.10161 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 5966.409 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 520 CALLS 2813 TOTAL EDM= .59E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .51045E-05 31.856 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .11464E-05 114.99 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .37081E-07 39.661 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 Prefactor 20.063 17.917 .22247E-03 -1.5618 5 norm .0000 32.087 .17159E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .25577E-05 21.346 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 norm 5.9674 8.0086 .41138E-03 -1.5659 8 Prefactor 14.889 14.592 .25969E-03 -1.5631 9 norm 7.0654 7.8517 .37788E-03 -1.5655 10 Prefactor .51675 12.037 .93728E-02 -1.5694 11 norm 3.5323 2.0622 .53733E-03 -1.5670 12 Prefactor 6.7873 6.6311 .38537E-03 -1.5656 13 Prefactor 10.451 6.8291 .30988E-03 -1.5643 14 norm .0000 .96658 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm 2.8305 2.7309 .60422E-03 -1.5674 16 Prefactor .55511E-10 3.5810 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor 44.475 62.225 .14777E-03 -1.5575 18 Prefactor 32.957 22.909 .17396E-03 -1.5593 19 Prefactor .44409E-09 5.3694 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 norm 10.892 12.770 .30308E-03 -1.5642 21 Prefactor .72164E-09 6.1465 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 22 Prefactor .14494E-06 19.310 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 23 Prefactor .0000 2.2513 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 24 Prefactor 8.9837 15.362 .32778E-03 -1.5648 25 Normalizat .73845 .17761 .42794E-01 -1.0239 26 Prefactor 1.1016 .18787 .37531E-01 -.89415 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 5.86123e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.025504 2 0.0229628 3 0.00242505 4 17.9171 5 2.11903e-05 6 0.0147781 7 8.00863 8 14.5922 9 7.85172 10 4.98803 11 2.06218 12 6.63108 13 6.82911 14 3.57242e-08 15 2.73088 16 3.44563e-05 17 62.2261 18 22.9091 19 9.79497e-05 20 12.7705 21 0.000130742 22 0.00334587 23 6.74997e-06 24 15.3621 25 0.177746 26 0.187981 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 5966.409 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 520 CALLS 2813 TOTAL EDM= .59E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .51045E-05 31.856 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .11464E-05 114.99 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .37081E-07 39.661 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 Prefactor 20.063 17.917 .22247E-03 -1.5618 5 norm .0000 32.087 .17159E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .25577E-05 21.346 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 norm 5.9674 8.0086 .41138E-03 -1.5659 8 Prefactor 14.889 14.592 .25969E-03 -1.5631 9 norm 7.0654 7.8517 .37788E-03 -1.5655 10 Prefactor .51675 12.037 .93728E-02 -1.5694 11 norm 3.5323 2.0622 .53733E-03 -1.5670 12 Prefactor 6.7873 6.6311 .38537E-03 -1.5656 13 Prefactor 10.451 6.8291 .30988E-03 -1.5643 14 norm .0000 .96658 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm 2.8305 2.7309 .60422E-03 -1.5674 16 Prefactor .55511E-10 3.5810 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor 44.475 62.225 .14777E-03 -1.5575 18 Prefactor 32.957 22.909 .17396E-03 -1.5593 19 Prefactor .44409E-09 5.3694 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 norm 10.892 12.770 .30308E-03 -1.5642 21 Prefactor .72164E-09 6.1465 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 22 Prefactor .14494E-06 19.310 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 23 Prefactor .0000 2.2513 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 24 Prefactor 8.9837 15.362 .32778E-03 -1.5648 25 Normalizat .73845 .17761 .42794E-01 -1.0239 26 Prefactor 1.1016 .18787 .37531E-01 -.89415 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 5.86123e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.025504 2 0.0229628 3 0.00242505 4 17.9171 5 2.11903e-05 6 0.0147781 7 8.00863 8 14.5922 9 7.85172 10 4.98803 11 2.06218 12 6.63108 13 6.82911 14 3.57242e-08 15 2.73088 16 3.44563e-05 17 62.2261 18 22.9091 19 9.79497e-05 20 12.7705 21 0.000130742 22 0.00334587 23 6.74997e-06 24 15.3621 25 0.177746 26 0.187981 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.40912995 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 5.551e-11 3.446e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 1.102e+00 1.880e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 7.385e-01 1.777e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 5.92442548002e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00459695996852 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/35815792/likelihoodResults_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40971792 delta logL = -0.000587969642766 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40912997 delta logL = -2.37578205997e-08 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .27756E-09 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 1.0095 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .73841 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1017 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5966.409 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 27 CALLS 231 TOTAL EDM= .13E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 5.0534 .29827E-06** at limit ** 2 Index 2.1245 2.2299 -.10312E-04 .0000 3 Normalizat .73845 .19545 -.21725E-06 -.29444E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1016 .21320 .17941E-06 -.34447E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 2.12449 Normalizat = 0.738453 Prefactor = 1.10161 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 5966.409 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 11 CALLS 242 TOTAL EDM= .13E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 5.0505 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index .49357 1.8975 -.10312E-04 -.61273 3 Normalizat .73845 1.0781 -.21725E-06 -1.0239 4 Prefactor 1.1016 1.1475 .17941E-06 -.89415 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 1.2754e-12 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.07529e-05 2 1.77529 3 1.11172 4 1.17484 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40912995 delta logL = 8.18545231596e-12 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 1.075e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.124e+00 1.775e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 1.102e+00 1.175e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 7.385e-01 1.112e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/35815792/cmap_HighResolution_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='4.60e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='5.92e-08', time_completed='2026-08-25 12:03:21.184336', job_id='35815792', GAL2='1.10', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.74', EG='0.74', time_epoch_completed='1787684601.18', return_code2='101', ts='-0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='1.10', dlogl='8.19e-12', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.46' WHERE bin_id='2198' AND source_name='4FGL J1516.1+4351' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Aug 25 12:03:21 PDT 2026 _V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits.....................! real 22.32 user 20.41 sys 1.08 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/35815818/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1516.1+4351' 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 1.184e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ft2_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/35815818/expmap_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/35815818/ltcube_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/35815818/Model_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.50034773 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.41006608 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .34467E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .11005E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' .15057E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'Prefactor ' 20.219 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'norm ' .18182E-01 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'Prefactor ' .13961E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' 5.9513 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' 14.845 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'norm ' 7.0387 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' .51609 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'norm ' 3.5358 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 6.7709 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 10.438 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'norm ' .24869E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'norm ' 2.8304 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'Prefactor ' .53135E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' 45.801 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 33.055 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' .59611E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'norm ' 10.910 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'Prefactor ' .65733E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' .10156E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' .48525E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' 9.3343 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'Normalizat' .73791 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 26 'Prefactor ' 1.1015 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 **********Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.40912995 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 5.551e-11 3.446e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 1.102e+00 1.880e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 7.385e-01 1.777e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 5.92442548002e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00459695996852 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/35815795/likelihoodResults_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40971792 delta logL = -0.000587969642766 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40912997 delta logL = -2.37578205997e-08 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .27756E-09 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 1.0095 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .73841 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1017 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5966.409 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 27 CALLS 231 TOTAL EDM= .13E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 5.0534 .29827E-06** at limit ** 2 Index 2.1245 2.2299 -.10312E-04 .0000 3 Normalizat .73845 .19545 -.21725E-06 -.29444E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1016 .21320 .17941E-06 -.34447E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 2.12449 Normalizat = 0.738453 Prefactor = 1.10161 ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5966.409 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 206 CALLS 2293 TOTAL EDM= .94E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 2.6% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .51045E-05 24.717 .15987E-05** at limit ** 2 Prefactor .11464E-05 115.25 .12046E-05** at limit ** 3 Prefactor .37081E-07 39.662 .20386E-05** at limit ** 4 Prefactor 20.063 17.690 .15123E-06 .21540E-01 5 norm .0000 33.596 .16274E-05** at limit ** 6 Prefactor .25577E-05 16.952 -.22054E-06** at limit ** 7 norm 5.9674 7.8797 .24886E-06 .13208E-02 8 Prefactor 14.889 11.535 .49876E-06 .12170 9 norm 7.0654 7.8060 -.24782E-06 .27814E-03 10 Prefactor .51675 .92374 .77511E-07 -.92044E-03 11 norm 3.5323 2.0513 -.25002E-06 -.31618E-02 12 Prefactor 6.7873 6.5336 .24904E-06 .11178E-02 13 Prefactor 10.451 6.8210 -.80518E-08 -.62473E-03 14 norm .0000 .98627 .21111E-06** at limit ** 15 norm 2.8305 2.7198 -.30975E-06 -.11879E-03 16 Prefactor .55511E-10 3.5834 .12850E-06** at limit ** 17 Prefactor 44.475 60.081 -.54679E-06 .19902E-01 18 Prefactor 32.957 3.1365 -.46670E-07 -.15785E-01 19 Prefactor .44409E-09 5.3706 .34749E-06** at limit ** 20 norm 10.892 12.762 .33954E-06 .59138E-02 21 Prefactor .72164E-09 6.1398 .51281E-06** at limit ** 22 Prefactor .14494E-06 18.918 .30752E-06** at limit ** 23 Prefactor .0000 2.2574 .50368E-07** at limit ** 24 Prefactor 8.9837 14.772 .17805E-06 .36523E-01 25 Normalizat .73845 .20195 -.11853E-04 -.18812E-04 26 Prefactor 1.1016 .21805 .94743E-05 -.21144E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 5.10453e-06 Prefactor = 1.14636e-06 Prefactor = 3.70814e-08 Prefactor = 20.0634 norm = 0 Prefactor = 2.55768e-06 norm = 5.96742 Prefactor = 14.889 norm = 7.06544 Prefactor = 0.516754 norm = 3.53226 Prefactor = 6.78729 Prefactor = 10.451 norm = 0 norm = 2.83055 Prefactor = 5.55112e-11 Prefactor = 44.4746 Prefactor = 32.9574 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 norm = 10.8916 Prefactor = 7.21645e-10 Prefactor = 1.4494e-07 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 8.98367 Normalizat = 0.738453 Prefactor = 1.10161 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 5966.409 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 11 CALLS 242 TOTAL EDM= .13E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 5.0505 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index .49357 1.8975 -.10312E-04 -.61273 3 Normalizat .73845 1.0781 -.21725E-06 -1.0239 4 Prefactor 1.1016 1.1475 .17941E-06 -.89415 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 1.2754e-12 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.07529e-05 2 1.77529 3 1.11172 4 1.17484 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40912995 delta logL = 8.18545231596e-12 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 1.075e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.124e+00 1.775e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 1.102e+00 1.175e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 7.385e-01 1.112e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/35815795/cmap_HighResolution_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='4.60e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='5.92e-08', time_completed='2026-08-25 12:03:35.546451', job_id='35815795', GAL2='1.10', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.74', EG='0.74', time_epoch_completed='1787684615.55', return_code2='101', ts='-0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='1.10', dlogl='8.19e-12', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.46' WHERE bin_id='2198' AND source_name='4FGL J1516.1+4351' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Aug 25 12:03:35 PDT 2026 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 5966.409 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 520 CALLS 2813 TOTAL EDM= .59E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .51045E-05 31.856 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor .11464E-05 114.99 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .37081E-07 39.661 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 Prefactor 20.063 17.917 .22247E-03 -1.5618 5 norm .0000 32.087 .17159E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 Prefactor .25577E-05 21.346 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 norm 5.9674 8.0086 .41138E-03 -1.5659 8 Prefactor 14.889 14.592 .25969E-03 -1.5631 9 norm 7.0654 7.8517 .37788E-03 -1.5655 10 Prefactor .51675 12.037 .93728E-02 -1.5694 11 norm 3.5323 2.0622 .53733E-03 -1.5670 12 Prefactor 6.7873 6.6311 .38537E-03 -1.5656 13 Prefactor 10.451 6.8291 .30988E-03 -1.5643 14 norm .0000 .96658 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 norm 2.8305 2.7309 .60422E-03 -1.5674 16 Prefactor .55511E-10 3.5810 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor 44.475 62.225 .14777E-03 -1.5575 18 Prefactor 32.957 22.909 .17396E-03 -1.5593 19 Prefactor .44409E-09 5.3694 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 norm 10.892 12.770 .30308E-03 -1.5642 21 Prefactor .72164E-09 6.1465 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 22 Prefactor .14494E-06 19.310 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 23 Prefactor .0000 2.2513 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 24 Prefactor 8.9837 15.362 .32778E-03 -1.5648 25 Normalizat .73845 .17761 .42794E-01 -1.0239 26 Prefactor 1.1016 .18787 .37531E-01 -.89415 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 5.86123e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 0.025504 2 0.0229628 3 0.00242505 4 17.9171 5 2.11903e-05 6 0.0147781 7 8.00863 8 14.5922 9 7.85172 10 4.98803 11 2.06218 12 6.63108 13 6.82911 14 3.57242e-08 15 2.73088 16 3.44563e-05 17 62.2261 18 22.9091 19 9.79497e-05 20 12.7705 21 0.000130742 22 0.00334587 23 6.74997e-06 24 15.3621 25 0.177746 26 0.187981 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5966.40912995 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 5.551e-11 3.446e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.463e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 1.102e+00 1.880e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 7.385e-01 1.777e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 5.92442548002e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00459695996852 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/35815818/likelihoodResults_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40971792 delta logL = -0.000587969642766 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40912997 delta logL = -2.37578205997e-08 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .27756E-09 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 1.0095 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .73841 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1017 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6270E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5966.409 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 27 CALLS 231 TOTAL EDM= .13E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.2% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 5.0534 .29827E-06** at limit ** 2 Index 2.1245 2.2299 -.10312E-04 .0000 3 Normalizat .73845 .19545 -.21725E-06 -.29444E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1016 .21320 .17941E-06 -.34447E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 2.12449 Normalizat = 0.738453 Prefactor = 1.10161 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 5966.409 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 11 CALLS 242 TOTAL EDM= .13E-11 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 5.0505 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index .49357 1.8975 -.10312E-04 -.61273 3 Normalizat .73845 1.0781 -.21725E-06 -1.0239 4 Prefactor 1.1016 1.1475 .17941E-06 -.89415 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 1.2754e-12 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 1.07529e-05 2 1.77529 3 1.11172 4 1.17484 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 5966.40912995 delta logL = 8.18545231596e-12 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1516.1+4351 Spectrum: PowerLaw 296 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 1.075e-05 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 297 Index: 2.124e+00 1.775e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 298 Scale: 1.335e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 624 Prefactor: 1.102e+00 1.175e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 625 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 626 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 623 Normalization: 7.385e-01 1.112e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): -0.00 Ra Dec: 229.049 43.853 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/35815818/cmap_HighResolution_809049601_809308801_4FGL_J1516.1+4351_daily_bin2198.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='4.60e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='5.92e-08', time_completed='2026-08-25 12:04:23.406952', job_id='35815818', GAL2='1.10', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.74', EG='0.74', time_epoch_completed='1787684663.41', return_code2='101', ts='-0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='1.10', dlogl='8.19e-12', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='2.46' WHERE bin_id='2198' AND source_name='4FGL J1516.1+4351' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Tue Aug 25 12:04:23 PDT 2026