********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 8995.482 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 9 CALLS 239 TOTAL EDM= .99E-12 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 1.4491 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index .22387 1.5376 -.10671E-05 -.76042 3 Normalizat .66691 1.0062 .56465E-05 -1.0521 4 Prefactor 1.1987 1.1034 -.62473E-05 -.86371 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 9.94614e-13 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 3.06021e-06 2 1.26387 3 1.03618 4 1.1258 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 8995.48222939 delta logL = 0.0 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1415.5+4830 Spectrum: PowerLaw 322 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 3.060e-06 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 323 Index: 1.554e+00 1.264e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 324 Scale: 2.185e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 650 Prefactor: 1.199e+00 1.126e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 651 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 652 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 649 Normalization: 6.669e-01 1.036e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 0.00 Ra Dec: 213.899 48.514 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/33914484/cmap_HighResolution_806976001_807235201_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='1.81e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='2.43e-08', time_completed='2026-08-01 14:27:28.808139', job_id='33914484', GAL2='1.20', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.67', EG='0.67', time_epoch_completed='1785619648.81', return_code2='101', ts='0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='1.20', dlogl='0.00e+00', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='1.94' WHERE bin_id='2190' AND source_name='4FGL J1415.5+4830' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Sat Aug 1 14:27:29 PDT 2026 _V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/33914585/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits.....................! real 25.84 user 24.17 sys 0.97 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/33914585/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/33914585/ft2_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/33914585/expmap_806976001_807235201_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/33914585/ltcube_806976001_807235201_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/33914585/Model_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1415.5+4830' 4FGL J1415.5+4830 Spectrum: PowerLaw 322 Prefactor: 1.339e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 323 Index: 1.944e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 324 Scale: 2.185e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/33914585/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/33914585/ft2_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/33914585/expmap_806976001_807235201_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/33914585/ltcube_806976001_807235201_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/33914585/Model_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8995.55183683 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8995.48314261 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .43535E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' 39.338 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' 22.424 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' .45473E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'Prefactor ' .80286E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'norm ' 3.2240 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' .32402 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .43578E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 24.652 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' 11.408 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .11293E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 7.3519 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 5.0646 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'Prefactor ' .54401E-08 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'Prefactor ' 30.600 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'norm ' .12074E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' 11.289 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 20.004 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' .75291E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'Prefactor ' .11380E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'norm ' .79702 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' .78976E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' 3.5012 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' .99862E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'norm ' .12493E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 26 'Prefactor ' .12885E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 27 'Normalizat' .66676 1.0000 .100/sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/pyfits/__init__.py:22: PyFITSDeprecationWarning: PyFITS is deprecated, please use astropy.io.fits PyFITSDeprecationWarning) # noqa Likelihood Analysis Tool Support Contact: Daniel Kocevski (daniel.kocevski@nasa.gov) Importing modules... This is make3FGLxml version 01r0. The default diffuse model files and names are for pass 8 and assume you have v10r00p05 of the Fermi Science Tools or higher. This is make4FGLDR3xml version 01r09. The default diffuse model files and names are for P8R3, 4FGL DRs, and the default fermitools directory locations. WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/matplotlib/cbook/deprecation.py:106: MatplotlibDeprecationWarning: The mpl_toolkits.axes_grid module was deprecated in version 2.1. Use mpl_toolkits.axes_grid1 and mpl_toolkits.axisartist provies the same functionality instead. warnings.warn(message, mplDeprecation, stacklevel=1) 00E-01 10.000 28 'Prefactor ' 1.1988 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6530E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 8995.482 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 204 CALLS 2020 TOTAL EDM= .85E-10 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.1% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .0000 .81884 -.34237E-07** at limit ** 2 Prefactor 38.690 20.599 -.15275E-06 -.22621E-01 3 Prefactor 22.646 17.603 .38409E-07 .25013E-01 4 norm .0000 1.2119 .41793E-07** at limit ** 5 Prefactor .0000 10.617 -.30766E-06** at limit ** 6 norm 3.2237 1.2901 .71085E-08 -.57034E-04 7 norm .35290 3.7195 -.10699E-06 .82705E-04 8 norm .55567E-07 282.13 -.93986E-06** at limit ** 9 Prefactor 24.976 15.148 .80755E-07 -.46026E-01 10 Prefactor 11.228 10.547 -.10725E-06 .11791E-01 11 Prefactor .0000 1.2221 .25773E-07** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 7.4199 12.212 -.51010E-07 -.23354E-02 13 Prefactor 5.0009 7.9834 -.21535E-07 .33178E-02 14 Prefactor .0000 .48752 .51381E-08** at limit ** 15 Prefactor 30.541 4.6500 -.92499E-08 -.15044E-01 16 norm .0000 15.770 .16128E-08** at limit ** 17 Prefactor 11.258 10.945 .32474E-07 .52396E-03 18 Prefactor 19.879 6.1005 -.44316E-07 -.13911E-01 19 Prefactor .34417E-08 75.183 .25537E-08** at limit ** 20 Prefactor .0000 3.1244 -.64668E-09** at limit ** 21 norm .79698 .65429 .91040E-09 -.38387E-04 22 Prefactor .0000 1.1543 .12473E-07** at limit ** 23 Prefactor 3.4889 3.3171 .12492E-07 -.16077E-03 24 Prefactor .0000 1.2687 .60645E-08** at limit ** 25 norm .0000 .77695 .21276E-07** at limit ** 26 Prefactor .0000 6.4751 .13190E-06** at limit ** 27 Normalizat .66691 .14687 -.39956E-06 .10272E-04 28 Prefactor 1.1987 .17699 .98311E-06 .87507E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0 Prefactor = 38.6905 Prefactor = 22.6462 norm = 0 Prefactor = 0 norm = 3.22371 norm = 0.352904 norm = 5.55667e-08 Prefactor = 24.9759 Prefactor = 11.2281 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 7.41993 Prefactor = 5.00087 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 30.5415 norm = 0 Prefactor = 11.2579 Prefactor = 19.8786 Prefactor = 3.44169e-09 Prefactor = 0 norm = 0.796976 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 3.48891 Prefactor = 0 norm = 0 Prefactor = 0 Normalizat = 0.666909 Prefactor = 1.19872 WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8995.482 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 587 CALLS 2607 TOTAL EDM= .11E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .0000 .82394 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor 38.690 24.125 .15945E-03 -1.5584 3 Prefactor 22.646 22.246 .21123E-03 -1.5613 4 norm .0000 1.2118 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 Prefactor .0000 10.643 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 norm 3.2237 1.2973 .56393E-03 -1.5672 7 norm .35290 1.8321 .39014E-02 -1.5696 8 norm .55567E-07 12.409 .72371E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor 24.976 27.665 .20145E-03 -1.5608 10 Prefactor 11.228 20.002 .29636E-03 -1.5641 11 Prefactor .0000 1.2242 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 7.4199 12.291 .36967E-03 -1.5653 13 Prefactor 5.0009 13.649 .44656E-03 -1.5663 14 Prefactor .0000 .48834 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 Prefactor 30.541 19.785 .18080E-03 -1.5597 16 norm .0000 15.772 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor 11.258 11.002 .29792E-03 -1.5641 18 Prefactor 19.879 21.406 .22365E-03 -1.5619 19 Prefactor .34417E-08 74.108 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 Prefactor .0000 3.1337 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 21 norm .79698 .65809 .53157E-03 -1.5690 22 Prefactor .0000 1.1588 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 23 Prefactor 3.4889 3.3236 .54009E-03 -1.5671 24 Prefactor .0000 1.2729 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 25 norm .0000 .77737 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 26 Prefactor .0000 6.4549 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 27 Normalizat .66691 .12565 .41845E-01 -1.0521 28 Prefactor 1.1987 .14858 .52251E-01 -.86371 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.13495e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 2.92828e-07 2 24.1251 3 22.2459 4 2.49142e-07 5 1.7481e-05 6 1.29725 7 1.60819 8 0.00166049 9 27.6655 10 20.0016 11 1.79588e-07 12 12.2908 13 13.6487 14 1.30154e-07 15 19.7853 16 2.3255e-05 17 11.0018 18 21.4064 19 0.00100973 20 1.11962e-06 21 0.658092 22 5.96778e-08 23 3.32359 24 1.4934e-07 25 1.46392e-07 26 3.61615e-06 27 0.125699 28 0.14863 number of points = 7432 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190 RA = 213.899, Dec = 48.5142 tmin = 806976001, tmax = 807235201 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='33914899', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2026-08-01 14:27:47.776909', time_epoch_executed='1785619667.78' WHERE source_name='4FGL J1415.5+4830' and cadence='daily' and bin_id='2190' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/33914899 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/33914899/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=806976001.0 && nMetStart<807235201.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=806976001.0 && nMetStart<807235201.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 46 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft1_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=806976001.0 && nMetStart<807235201.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 46 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft2_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft1_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits ra=213.899 dec=48.5142 rad=12.0 tmin=806976001.0 tmax=807235201.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 2.17 user 1.58 sys 0.16 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft2_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft2_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 0.77 user 0.19 sys 0.14 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 823 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft2_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits sctable="SC_DATA" ouDone. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8995.48222939 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1415.5+4830 Spectrum: PowerLaw 322 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 1.796e-07 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 323 Index: 1.944e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 324 Scale: 2.185e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 650 Prefactor: 1.199e+00 1.486e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 651 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 652 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 649 Normalization: 6.669e-01 1.257e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 0.00 Ra Dec: 213.899 48.514 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 2.42770237634e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00181221223963 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/33914585/likelihoodResults_806976001_807235201_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 8995.48236042 delta logL = -0.000131036089442 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8995.48223 delta logL = -6.18825652055e-07 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .24669E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 1.1894 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .66694 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1988 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6530E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 8995.482 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 34 CALLS 230 TOTAL EDM= .99E-12 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 1.4491 .42118E-03** at limit ** 2 Index 1.5539 1.2384 -.10671E-05 .0000 3 Normalizat .66691 1.0062 .56465E-05 .22435E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1987 1.1034 -.62473E-05 .27753E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 1.55387 Normalizat = 0.666909 Prefactor = 1.19872 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 8995.482 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 9 CALLS 239 TOTAL EDM= .99E-12 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 1.4491 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index .22387 1.5376 -.10671E-05 -.76042 3 Normalizat .66691 1.0062 .56465E-05 -1.0521 4 Prefactor 1.1987 1.1034 -.62473E-05 -.86371 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 9.94614e-13 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 3.06021e-06 2 1.26387 3 1.03618 4 1.1258 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 8995.48222939 delta logL = 0.0 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1415.5+4830 Spectrum: PowerLaw 322 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 3.060e-06 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 323 Index: 1.554e+00 1.264e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 324 Scale: 2.185e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 650 Prefactor: 1.199e+00 1.126e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 651 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 652 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 649 Normalization: 6.669e-01 1.036e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 0.00 Ra Dec: 213.899 48.514 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/33914585/cmap_HighResolution_806976001_807235201_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='1.81e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='2.43e-08', time_completed='2026-08-01 14:29:34.354066', job_id='33914585', GAL2='1.20', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.67', EG='0.67', time_epoch_completed='1785619774.35', return_code2='101', ts='0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='1.20', dlogl='0.00e+00', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='1.94' WHERE bin_id='2190' AND source_name='4FGL J1415.5+4830' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Sat Aug 1 14:29:34 PDT 2026 tfile=/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ltcube_806976001_807235201_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft2_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits .....................! real 8.63 user 7.84 sys 0.24 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft2_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ltcube_806976001_807235201_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/expmap_806976001_807235201_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ltcube_806976001_807235201_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits .....................! real 66.81 user 62.06 sys 3.86 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 205 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J1415.5+4830 @ 213.899 48.5142 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft2_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/cmap_806976001_807235201_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=213.899 yref=48.5142 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.76 user 0.22 sys 0.11 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft2_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/cmap_HighResolution_806976001_807235201_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=213.899 yref=48.5142 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.82 user 0.22 sys 0.12 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft2_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/Model_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding source GAL_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits.....................! real 26.31 user 24.65 sys 0.94 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft2_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/expmap_806976001_807235201_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ltcube_806976001_807235201_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/33914899/Model_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J1415.5+4830' 4FGL J1415.5+4830 Spectrum: PowerLaw 322 Prefactor: 1.339e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 323 Index: 1.944e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 324 Scale: 2.185e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ft2_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/33914899/expmap_806976001_807235201_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/33914899/ltcube_806976001_807235201_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/33914899/Model_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8995.55183683 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8995.48314261 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'norm ' .43535E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' 39.338 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' 22.424 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' .45473E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'Prefactor ' .80286E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'norm ' 3.2240 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' .32402 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'norm ' .43578E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 24.652 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' 11.408 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' .11293E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'Prefactor ' 7.3519 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' 5.0646 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'Prefactor ' .54401E-08 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'Prefactor ' 30.600 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 16 'norm ' .12074E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 17 'Prefactor ' 11.289 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 18 'Prefactor ' 20.004 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 19 'Prefactor ' .75291E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 20 'Prefactor ' .11380E-07 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 21 'norm ' .79702 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 22 'Prefactor ' .78976E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 23 'Prefactor ' 3.5012 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 24 'Prefactor ' .99862E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 25 'norm ' .12493E-04 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 26 'Prefactor ' .12885E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 27 'Normalizat' .66676 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 28 'Prefactor ' 1.1988 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6530E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 8995.482 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 204 CALLS 2020 TOTAL EDM= .85E-10 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= 1.1% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 norm .0000 .81884 -.34237E-07** at limit ** 2 Prefactor 38.690 20.599 -.15275E-06 -.22621E-01 3 Prefactor 22.646 17.603 .38409E-07 .25013E-01 4 norm .0000 1.2119 .41793E-07** at limit ** 5 Prefactor .0000 10.617 -.30766E-06** at limit ** 6 norm 3.2237 1.2901 .71085E-08 -.57034E-04 7 norm .35290 3.7195 -.10699E-06 .82705E-04 8 norm .55567E-07 282.13 -.93986E-06** at limit ** 9 Prefactor 24.976 15.148 .80755E-07 -.46026E-01 10 Prefactor 11.228 10.547 -.10725E-06 .11791E-01 11 Prefactor .0000 1.2221 .25773E-07** at limit ** 12 Prefactor 7.4199 12.212 -.51010E-07 -.23354E-02 13 Prefactor 5.0009 7.9834 -.21535E-07 .33178E-02 14 Prefactor .0000 .48752 .51381E-08** at limit ** 15 Prefactor 30.541 4.6500 -.92499E-08 -.15044E-01 16 norm .0000 15.770 .16128E-08** at limit ** 17 Prefactor 11.258 10.945 .32474E-07 .52396E-03 18 Prefactor 19.879 6.1005 -.44316E-07 -.13911E-01 19 Prefactor .34417E-08 75.183 .25537E-08** at limit ** 20 Prefactor .0000 3.1244 -.64668E-09** at limit ** 21 norm .79698 .65429 .91040E-09 -.38387E-04 22 Prefactor .0000 1.1543 .12473E-07** at limit ** 23 Prefactor 3.4889 3.3171 .12492E-07 -.16077E-03 24 Prefactor .0000 1.2687 .60645E-08** at limit ** 25 norm .0000 .77695 .21276E-07** at limit ** 26 Prefactor .0000 6.4751 .13190E-06** at limit ** 27 Normalizat .66691 .14687 -.39956E-06 .10272E-04 28 Prefactor 1.1987 .17699 .98311E-06 .87507E-05 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: norm = 0 Prefactor = 38.6905 Prefactor = 22.6462 norm = 0 Prefactor = 0 norm = 3.22371 norm = 0.352904 norm = 5.55667e-08 Prefactor = 24.9759 Prefactor = 11.2281 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 7.41993 Prefactor = 5.00087 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 30.5415 norm = 0 Prefactor = 11.2579 Prefactor = 19.8786 Prefactor = 3.44169e-09 Prefactor = 0 norm = 0.796976 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 3.48891 Prefactor = 0 norm = 0 Prefactor = 0 Normalizat = 0.666909 Prefactor = 1.19872 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 8995.482 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 587 CALLS 2607 TOTAL EDM= .11E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 norm .0000 .82394 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Prefactor 38.690 24.125 .15945E-03 -1.5584 3 Prefactor 22.646 22.246 .21123E-03 -1.5613 4 norm .0000 1.2118 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 5 Prefactor .0000 10.643 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 norm 3.2237 1.2973 .56393E-03 -1.5672 7 norm .35290 1.8321 .39014E-02 -1.5696 8 norm .55567E-07 12.409 .72371E-02 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor 24.976 27.665 .20145E-03 -1.5608 10 Prefactor 11.228 20.002 .29636E-03 -1.5641 11 Prefactor .0000 1.2242 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 12 Prefactor 7.4199 12.291 .36967E-03 -1.5653 13 Prefactor 5.0009 13.649 .44656E-03 -1.5663 14 Prefactor .0000 .48834 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 15 Prefactor 30.541 19.785 .18080E-03 -1.5597 16 norm .0000 15.772 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 17 Prefactor 11.258 11.002 .29792E-03 -1.5641 18 Prefactor 19.879 21.406 .22365E-03 -1.5619 19 Prefactor .34417E-08 74.108 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 20 Prefactor .0000 3.1337 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 21 norm .79698 .65809 .53157E-03 -1.5690 22 Prefactor .0000 1.1588 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 23 Prefactor 3.4889 3.3236 .54009E-03 -1.5671 24 Prefactor .0000 1.2729 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 25 norm .0000 .77737 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 26 Prefactor .0000 6.4549 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 27 Normalizat .66691 .12565 .41845E-01 -1.0521 28 Prefactor 1.1987 .14858 .52251E-01 -.86371 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 1.13495e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 2.92828e-07 2 24.1251 3 22.2459 4 2.49142e-07 5 1.7481e-05 6 1.29725 7 1.60819 8 0.00166049 9 27.6655 10 20.0016 11 1.79588e-07 12 12.2908 13 13.6487 14 1.30154e-07 15 19.7853 16 2.3255e-05 17 11.0018 18 21.4064 19 0.00100973 20 1.11962e-06 21 0.658092 22 5.96778e-08 23 3.32359 24 1.4934e-07 25 1.46392e-07 26 3.61615e-06 27 0.125699 28 0.14863 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 8995.48222939 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1415.5+4830 Spectrum: PowerLaw 322 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 1.796e-07 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 323 Index: 1.944e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 324 Scale: 2.185e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 650 Prefactor: 1.199e+00 1.486e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 651 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 652 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 649 Normalization: 6.669e-01 1.257e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 0.00 Ra Dec: 213.899 48.514 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 2.42770237634e-08 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.00181221223963 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/33914899/likelihoodResults_806976001_807235201_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 8995.48236042 delta logL = -0.000131036089442 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 102 logL (Free Index) = 8995.48223 delta logL = -6.18825652055e-07 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' .24669E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 1.1894 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' .66694 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' 1.1988 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .6530E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 8995.482 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 34 CALLS 230 TOTAL EDM= .99E-12 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor .0000 1.4491 .42118E-03** at limit ** 2 Index 1.5539 1.2384 -.10671E-05 .0000 3 Normalizat .66691 1.0062 .56465E-05 .22435E-04 4 Prefactor 1.1987 1.1034 -.62473E-05 .27753E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 0 Index = 1.55387 Normalizat = 0.666909 Prefactor = 1.19872 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** MNHESS FAILS AND WILL RETURN DIAGONAL MATRIX. FCN= 8995.482 FROM HESSE STATUS=FAILED 9 CALLS 239 TOTAL EDM= .99E-12 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY=100.0% EXT PARAMETER APPROXIMATE INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor .0000 1.4491 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 2 Index .22387 1.5376 -.10671E-05 -.76042 3 Normalizat .66691 1.0062 .56465E-05 -1.0521 4 Prefactor 1.1987 1.1034 -.62473E-05 -.86371 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 1 estimated distance: 9.94614e-13 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 3.06021e-06 2 1.26387 3 1.03618 4 1.1258 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 101 logL (Free Index) = 8995.48222939 delta logL = 0.0 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J1415.5+4830 Spectrum: PowerLaw 322 Prefactor: 0.000e+00 3.060e-06 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 323 Index: 1.554e+00 1.264e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 324 Scale: 2.185e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 650 Prefactor: 1.199e+00 1.126e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 651 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 652 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 649 Normalization: 6.669e-01 1.036e+00 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 0.00 Ra Dec: 213.899 48.514 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to -1.000e-01 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 1.110e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/33914899/cmap_HighResolution_806976001_807235201_4FGL_J1415.5+4830_daily_bin2190.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='1.81e-03', job_status='DONE', photon_flux_upper_limit='2.43e-08', time_completed='2026-08-01 14:35:19.191578', job_id='33914899', GAL2='1.20', fit_tolerance='1e-08', EG2='0.67', EG='0.67', time_epoch_completed='1785620119.19', return_code2='101', ts='0.00', comment='SUCCESS', return_code='0', GAL='1.20', dlogl='0.00e+00', ts2='0.00', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_index='1.94' WHERE bin_id='2190' AND source_name='4FGL J1415.5+4830' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Sat Aug 1 14:35:19 PDT 2026