********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 5484.762 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 25 CALLS 317 TOTAL EDM= .57E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor 29.167 33.779 .14807E-05 -1.5600 2 Index 2.7983 .66100 .19134E-03 -.45598 3 Normalizat 1.3468 .24652 .53405E-04 -.82180 4 Prefactor .71825 .15022 .87088E-05 -1.0282 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 5.74964e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 33.7797 2 0.663413 3 0.24674 4 0.150308 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 5484.76215874 delta logL = 0.181954117764 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J0438.4-1254 Spectrum: PowerLaw 249 Prefactor: 2.917e+01 3.378e+01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 250 Index: 2.798e+00 6.634e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 251 Scale: 1.026e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 493 Prefactor: 7.182e-01 1.503e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 494 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 495 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 492 Normalization: 1.347e+00 2.467e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 2.92 Ra Dec: 69.610 -12.905 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.80 +/- 0.66 Photon Flux (Free Index): 1.10e-07 +/- 7.65e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 2.46e-05 +/- 1.71e-05 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/31082923/cmap_HighResolution_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='1.61e-02', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='8.76e-08', energy_flux2='2.46e-05', photon_flux_error='6.22e-08', dlogl='1.82e-01', energy_flux='2.75e-05', photon_flux2='1.10e-07', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-08 22:38:28.373489', photon_index_error2='0.66', photon_index2='2.80', ts='2.57', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='0.71', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='2.08e-07', energy_flux_error2='1.71e-05', EG='1.37', time_epoch_completed='1783575508.37', return_code='0', job_id='31082923', GAL2='0.72', EG2='1.35', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='1.96e-05', photon_flux_error2='7.65e-08', ts2='2.92', photon_index='2.43' WHERE bin_id='2179' AND source_name='4FGL J0438.4-1254' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Wed Jul 8 22:38:28 PDT 2026 /sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/pyfits/__init__.py:22: PyFITSDeprecationWarning: PyFITS is deprecated, please use astropy.io.fits PyFITSDeprecationWarning) # noqa Likelihood Analysis Tool Support Contact: Daniel Kocevski (daniel.kocevski@nasa.gov) Importing modules... This is make3FGLxml version 01r0. The default diffuse model files and names are for pass 8 and assume you have v10r00p05 of the Fermi Science Tools or higher. This is make4FGLDR3xml version 01r09. The default diffuse model files and names are for P8R3, 4FGL DRs, and the default fermitools directory locations. WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31082939/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/31082939/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits .....................! real 10.27 user 8.94 sys 0.22 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31082939/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31082939/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/31082939/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31082939/expmap_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/31082939/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits .....................! real 73.25 user 67.28 sys 4.22 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 153 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J0438.4-1254 @ 69.6099 -12.9053 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31082939/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31082939/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31082939/cmap_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=69.6099 yref=-12.9053 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.78 user 0.24 sys 0.11 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31082939/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31082939/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31082939/cmap_HighResolution_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=69.6099 yref=-12.9053 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.97 user 0.24 sys 0.13 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31082939/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31082939/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/31082939/Model_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding sour/sdf/group/fermi/u/kocevski/software/conda/envs/fermitools_v1.0.5/lib/python2.7/site-packages/matplotlib/cbook/deprecation.py:106: MatplotlibDeprecationWarning: The mpl_toolkits.axes_grid module was deprecated in version 2.1. Use mpl_toolkits.axes_grid1 and mpl_toolkits.axisartist provies the same functionality instead. warnings.warn(message, mplDeprecation, stacklevel=1) WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). e GAL_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/31082929/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits.....................! real 34.68 user 32.94 sys 0.98 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/31082929/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/31082929/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/31082929/expmap_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/31082929/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/31082929/Model_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J0438.4-1254' 4FGL J0438.4-1254 Spectrum: PowerLaw 249 Prefactor: 2.972e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 250 Index: 2.433e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 251 Scale: 1.026e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31082929/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31082929/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/31082929/expmap_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/31082929/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/31082929/Model_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5484.94917348 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5484.94496056 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' 7.0861 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .74726E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' .36306E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' 14.205 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'Prefactor ' .18640E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'norm ' .59525E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' .96939E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' .43290E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 12.699 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' 43.607 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' 16.030 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'norm ' 1.1443 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' .24606E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'Prefactor ' 25.648 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'Normalizat' 1.3750 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 16 'Prefactor ' .70626 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .4960E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5484.944 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 105 CALLS 1143 TOTAL EDM= .69E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= .7% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor 6.7621 15.325 .14492E-06 -.51927E-01 2 Prefactor .0000 2.1707 -.50895E-07** at limit ** 3 Prefactor .55511E-10 4.9192 -.17510E-06** at limit ** 4 norm 14.240 4.0854 .69224E-07 .14776E-01 5 Prefactor .0000 4.1178 -.10463E-06** at limit ** 6 norm .0000 1.4447 .46008E-06** at limit ** 7 norm .11324E-07 18.057 -.36883E-06** at limit ** 8 Prefactor .0000 3.6325 -.12802E-06** at limit ** 9 Prefactor 12.685 12.308 -.22367E-06 -.91882E-01 10 Prefactor 43.512 9.7801 -.12021E-07 -.41802E-01 11 Prefactor 16.310 10.418 .25751E-07 .17193E-01 12 norm 1.1438 .27647 -.29803E-08 .30935E-03 13 Prefactor .44409E-09 10.010 .45551E-06** at limit ** 14 Prefactor 26.234 27.846 .21759E-06 -.67081E-01 15 Normalizat 1.3745 .24227 .28698E-05 .50897E-04 16 Prefactor .70627 .14866 .97707E-06 .67191E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 6.76213 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 5.55112e-11 norm = 14.2401 Prefactor = 0 norm = 0 norm = 1.13243e-08 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 12.6848 Prefactor = 43.5121 Prefactor = 16.3103 norm = 1.14385 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 Prefactor = 26.2344 Normalizat = 1.3745 Prefactor = 0.706266 number of points = 7654 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179 RA = 69.6099, Dec = -12.9053 tmin = 804124801, tmax = 804384001 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='31083050', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2026-07-08 22:37:56.310370', time_epoch_executed='1783575476.31' WHERE source_name='4FGL J0438.4-1254' and cadence='daily' and bin_id='2179' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/31083050 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/31083050/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=804124801.0 && nMetStart<804384001.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=804124801.0 && nMetStart<804384001.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 47 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft1_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=804124801.0 && nMetStart<804384001.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 47 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft1_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits ra=69.6099 dec=-12.9053 rad=12.0 tmin=804124801.0 tmax=804384001.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 2.43 user 1.53 sys 0.16 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 0.98 user 0.22 sys 0.14 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 491 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits sctable="SC_DATA" ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 5484.944 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 233 CALLS 1376 TOTAL EDM= .80E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor 6.7621 27.679 .37661E-03 -1.5656 2 Prefactor .0000 2.1614 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .55511E-10 4.9394 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 norm 14.240 16.165 .26549E-03 -1.5632 5 Prefactor .0000 4.0713 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 norm .0000 1.4446 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 norm .11324E-07 17.997 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 Prefactor .0000 3.6253 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor 12.685 14.559 .28084E-03 -1.5637 10 Prefactor 43.512 30.930 .15145E-03 -1.5576 11 Prefactor 16.310 31.575 .24989E-03 -1.5627 12 norm 1.1438 .27701 .41505E-03 -1.5687 13 Prefactor .44409E-09 10.009 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 14 Prefactor 26.234 35.761 .19750E-03 -1.5606 15 Normalizat 1.3745 .22042 .59877E-01 -.81369 16 Prefactor .70627 .12900 .42485E-01 -1.0328 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.00772e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 27.3624 2 1.28163e-06 3 3.00876e-05 4 16.1652 5 7.71486e-06 6 1.12701e-05 7 0.000902737 8 1.77127e-05 9 14.559 10 30.9304 11 31.5755 12 0.277014 13 0.00013219 14 35.7608 15 0.220571 16 0.129052 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5484.94411286 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J0438.4-1254 Spectrum: PowerLaw 249 Prefactor: 4.351e+01 3.093e+01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 250 Index: 2.433e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 251 Scale: 1.026e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 493 Prefactor: 7.063e-01 1.291e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 494 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 495 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 492 Normalization: 1.375e+00 2.206e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 2.57 Ra Dec: 69.610 -12.905 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.43 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 8.76e-08 +/- 6.22e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 2.75e-05 +/- 1.96e-05 TS (Fixed Index): 2.57 Ra Dec: 69.610 -12.905 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 2.07899815391e-07 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.0160999795459 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/31082929/likelihoodResults_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 5484.7753765 delta logL = 0.1687363609 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 5484.762178 delta logL = 0.181934858301 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' 29.201 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 2.7979 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' 1.3470 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .71764 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .4960E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 5484.762 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 88 CALLS 292 TOTAL EDM= .52E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor 29.167 38.564 .74034E-05 -.36526E-02 2 Index 2.7983 .75462 .47834E-02 -.20532E-03 3 Normalizat 1.3468 .24708 .26703E-03 .11327E-03 4 Prefactor .71825 .15074 .21772E-03 -.48614E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 29.1671 Index = 2.79831 Normalizat = 1.3468 Prefactor = 0.71825 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 5484.762 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 25 CALLS 317 TOTAL EDM= .57E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor 29.167 33.779 .14807E-05 -1.5600 2 Index 2.7983 .66100 .19134E-03 -.45598 3 Normalizat 1.3468 .24652 .53405E-04 -.82180 4 Prefactor .71825 .15022 .87088E-05 -1.0282 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 5.74964e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 33.7797 2 0.663413 3 0.24674 4 0.150308 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 5484.76215874 delta logL = 0.181954117764 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J0438.4-1254 Spectrum: PowerLaw 249 Prefactor: 2.917e+01 3.378e+01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 250 Index: 2.798e+00 6.634e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 251 Scale: 1.026e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 493 Prefactor: 7.182e-01 1.503e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 494 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 495 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 492 Normalization: 1.347e+00 2.467e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 2.92 Ra Dec: 69.610 -12.905 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.80 +/- 0.66 Photon Flux (Free Index): 1.10e-07 +/- 7.65e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 2.46e-05 +/- 1.71e-05 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/31082929/cmap_HighResolution_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='1.61e-02', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='8.76e-08', energy_flux2='2.46e-05', photon_flux_error='6.22e-08', dlogl='1.82e-01', energy_flux='2.75e-05', photon_flux2='1.10e-07', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-08 22:39:34.023967', photon_index_error2='0.66', photon_index2='2.80', ts='2.57', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='0.71', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='2.08e-07', energy_flux_error2='1.71e-05', EG='1.37', time_epoch_completed='1783575574.02', return_code='0', job_id='31082929', GAL2='0.72', EG2='1.35', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='1.96e-05', photon_flux_error2='7.65e-08', ts2='2.92', photon_index='2.43' WHERE bin_id='2179' AND source_name='4FGL J0438.4-1254' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Wed Jul 8 22:39:34 PDT 2026 ce GAL_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/31082939/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits.....................! real 35.12 user 32.97 sys 1.06 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/31082939/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/31082939/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/31082939/expmap_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/31082939/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/31082939/Model_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J0438.4-1254' 4FGL J0438.4-1254 Spectrum: PowerLaw 249 Prefactor: 2.972e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 250 Index: 2.433e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 251 Scale: 1.026e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31082939/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31082939/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/31082939/expmap_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/31082939/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/31082939/Model_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5484.94917348 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5484.94496056 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' 7.0861 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .74726E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' .36306E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' 14.205 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'Prefactor ' .18640E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'norm ' .59525E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' .96939E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' .43290E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 12.699 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' 43.607 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' 16.030 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'norm ' 1.1443 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' .24606E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'Prefactor ' 25.648 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'Normalizat' 1.3750 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 16 'Prefactor ' .70626 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .4960E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5484.944 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 105 CALLS 1143 TOTAL EDM= .69E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= .7% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor 6.7621 15.325 .14492E-06 -.51927E-01 2 Prefactor .0000 2.1707 -.50895E-07** at limit ** 3 Prefactor .55511E-10 4.9192 -.17510E-06** at limit ** 4 norm 14.240 4.0854 .69224E-07 .14776E-01 5 Prefactor .0000 4.1178 -.10463E-06** at limit ** 6 norm .0000 1.4447 .46008E-06** at limit ** 7 norm .11324E-07 18.057 -.36883E-06** at limit ** 8 Prefactor .0000 3.6325 -.12802E-06** at limit ** 9 Prefactor 12.685 12.308 -.22367E-06 -.91882E-01 10 Prefactor 43.512 9.7801 -.12021E-07 -.41802E-01 11 Prefactor 16.310 10.418 .25751E-07 .17193E-01 12 norm 1.1438 .27647 -.29803E-08 .30935E-03 13 Prefactor .44409E-09 10.010 .45551E-06** at limit ** 14 Prefactor 26.234 27.846 .21759E-06 -.67081E-01 15 Normalizat 1.3745 .24227 .28698E-05 .50897E-04 16 Prefactor .70627 .14866 .97707E-06 .67191E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 6.76213 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 5.55112e-11 norm = 14.2401 Prefactor = 0 norm = 0 norm = 1.13243e-08 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 12.6848 Prefactor = 43.5121 Prefactor = 16.3103 norm = 1.14385 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 Prefactor = 26.2344 Normalizat = 1.3745 Prefactor = 0.706266 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 5484.944 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 233 CALLS 1376 TOTAL EDM= .80E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor 6.7621 27.679 .37661E-03 -1.5656 2 Prefactor .0000 2.1614 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .55511E-10 4.9394 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 norm 14.240 16.165 .26549E-03 -1.5632 5 Prefactor .0000 4.0713 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 norm .0000 1.4446 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 norm .11324E-07 17.997 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 Prefactor .0000 3.6253 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor 12.685 14.559 .28084E-03 -1.5637 10 Prefactor 43.512 30.930 .15145E-03 -1.5576 11 Prefactor 16.310 31.575 .24989E-03 -1.5627 12 norm 1.1438 .27701 .41505E-03 -1.5687 13 Prefactor .44409E-09 10.009 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 14 Prefactor 26.234 35.761 .19750E-03 -1.5606 15 Normalizat 1.3745 .22042 .59877E-01 -.81369 16 Prefactor .70627 .12900 .42485E-01 -1.0328 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.00772e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 27.3624 2 1.28163e-06 3 3.00876e-05 4 16.1652 5 7.71486e-06 6 1.12701e-05 7 0.000902737 8 1.77127e-05 9 14.559 10 30.9304 11 31.5755 12 0.277014 13 0.00013219 14 35.7608 15 0.220571 16 0.129052 number of points = 7654 number of fields = 31 RA_SUN column already exists. File will not be modified. Done. Performing analysis on: 4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179 RA = 69.6099, Dec = -12.9053 tmin = 804124801, tmax = 804384001 emin = 100.0, emax = 100000.0 irfs = P8R3_SOURCE_V2 ROI = 12 zmax = 90 Fitting strategies: Fix sources to their catalog values = True Leave variable source normalizations free = True Perform pre-fit where ALL sources are frozen to catalog values = False Perform secondary fit with a free spectral index = True Remove all catalog sources = False Remove weak (TS < 2) catalog sources = False Freeze Galactic component = False Likelihood fit parameters: Statistic: UNBINNED Optimizer: MINUIT Catalog: 4FGL Repository job = True LAT data source: Data catalog Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET job_id='31083113', job_status='RUN', time_executed='2026-07-08 22:38:52.751805', time_epoch_executed='1783575532.75' WHERE source_name='4FGL J0438.4-1254' and cadence='daily' and bin_id='2179' Database successfully updated. Done. Creating custom output directory: /lscratch/kocevski/31083113 Creating custom pfile directory: /lscratch/kocevski/31083113/pfiles/ Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStop>=804124801.0 && nMetStart<804384001.0' /Data/Flight/Reprocess/P305 Issuing command: datacat find --group FT1 --filter 'nMetStart>564945418 && nMetStop>=804124801.0 && nMetStart<804384001.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 47 files... Done. Merging files... Checksum keywords updated successfully. Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft1_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits Retrieving the FT1 file... Issuing command: datacat find --group FT2 --filter 'nMetStop>=804124801.0 && nMetStart<804384001.0' /Data/Flight/Level1/LPA Retrieving 47 files... Done. Merging files... Merged file saved to: /lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits Selecting the photons: time -p gtselect infile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft1_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits ra=69.6099 dec=-12.9053 rad=12.0 tmin=804124801.0 tmax=804384001.0 emin=100.0 emax=100000.0 zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 evclass=128 evtype="INDEF" convtype=-1 phasemin=0.0 phasemax=1.0 evtable="EVENTS" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Done. real 2.06 user 1.39 sys 0.20 Adding sun position to ft2 file: /sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Repository/bin/sunpos /lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits Selecting the good time intervals: time -p gtmktime scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits sctable="SC_DATA" filter="IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2))" roicut=no evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft1_filteredMKT_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits evtable="EVENTS" outfile="/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits" apply_filter=yes overwrite=yes header_obstimes=yes tstart=0.0 tstop=0.0 gtifile="default" chatter=3 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtmktime version HEAD Applying GTI filter: IN_SAA!=T && LIVETIME>0 && gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nogrb.gti',(START+STOP)/2) && (angsep(RA_SUN,DEC_SUN,RA_ZENITH,DEC_ZENITH)>115 || gtifilter('/sdf/group/fermi/g/LCRepository/Likelihood/GTIs/nosolarflares.gti',(START+STOP)/2)) real 0.75 user 0.21 sys 0.15 Number of photons that the gtmktime cut: 491 Generating the livetime cube: time -p gtltcube evfile="/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits" evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits sctable="SC_DATA" Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5484.94411286 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J0438.4-1254 Spectrum: PowerLaw 249 Prefactor: 4.351e+01 3.093e+01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 250 Index: 2.433e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 251 Scale: 1.026e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 493 Prefactor: 7.063e-01 1.291e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 494 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 495 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 492 Normalization: 1.375e+00 2.206e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 2.57 Ra Dec: 69.610 -12.905 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.43 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 8.76e-08 +/- 6.22e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 2.75e-05 +/- 1.96e-05 TS (Fixed Index): 2.57 Ra Dec: 69.610 -12.905 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 2.07899815391e-07 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.0160999795459 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/31082939/likelihoodResults_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 5484.7753765 delta logL = 0.1687363609 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 5484.762178 delta logL = 0.181934858301 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' 29.201 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 2.7979 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' 1.3470 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .71764 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .4960E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 5484.762 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 88 CALLS 292 TOTAL EDM= .52E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor 29.167 38.564 .74034E-05 -.36526E-02 2 Index 2.7983 .75462 .47834E-02 -.20532E-03 3 Normalizat 1.3468 .24708 .26703E-03 .11327E-03 4 Prefactor .71825 .15074 .21772E-03 -.48614E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 29.1671 Index = 2.79831 Normalizat = 1.3468 Prefactor = 0.71825 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 5484.762 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 25 CALLS 317 TOTAL EDM= .57E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor 29.167 33.779 .14807E-05 -1.5600 2 Index 2.7983 .66100 .19134E-03 -.45598 3 Normalizat 1.3468 .24652 .53405E-04 -.82180 4 Prefactor .71825 .15022 .87088E-05 -1.0282 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 5.74964e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 33.7797 2 0.663413 3 0.24674 4 0.150308 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 5484.76215874 delta logL = 0.181954117764 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J0438.4-1254 Spectrum: PowerLaw 249 Prefactor: 2.917e+01 3.378e+01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 250 Index: 2.798e+00 6.634e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 251 Scale: 1.026e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 493 Prefactor: 7.182e-01 1.503e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 494 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 495 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 492 Normalization: 1.347e+00 2.467e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 2.92 Ra Dec: 69.610 -12.905 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.80 +/- 0.66 Photon Flux (Free Index): 1.10e-07 +/- 7.65e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 2.46e-05 +/- 1.71e-05 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/31082939/cmap_HighResolution_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='1.61e-02', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='8.76e-08', energy_flux2='2.46e-05', photon_flux_error='6.22e-08', dlogl='1.82e-01', energy_flux='2.75e-05', photon_flux2='1.10e-07', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-08 22:40:00.348516', photon_index_error2='0.66', photon_index2='2.80', ts='2.57', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='0.71', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='2.08e-07', energy_flux_error2='1.71e-05', EG='1.37', time_epoch_completed='1783575600.35', return_code='0', job_id='31082939', GAL2='0.72', EG2='1.35', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='1.96e-05', photon_flux_error2='7.65e-08', ts2='2.92', photon_index='2.43' WHERE bin_id='2179' AND source_name='4FGL J0438.4-1254' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Wed Jul 8 22:40:00 PDT 2026 outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits .....................! real 10.55 user 9.40 sys 0.26 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/expmap_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits .....................! real 80.87 user 74.44 sys 4.60 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 153 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J0438.4-1254 @ 69.6099 -12.9053 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/cmap_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=69.6099 yref=-12.9053 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 1.10 user 0.27 sys 0.11 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/cmap_HighResolution_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=69.6099 yref=-12.9053 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 1.91 user 0.26 sys 0.11 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/Model_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding souroutfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits dcostheta=0.025 binsz=1.0 phibins=0 tmin=0.0 tmax=0.0 file_version="1" zmin=0.0 zmax=90.0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). Working on file /lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits .....................! real 9.21 user 8.53 sys 0.25 Generating the exposure map: time -p gtexpmap evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits sctable="SC_DATA" expcube=/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/expmap_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evtype="INDEF" srcrad=30.0 nlong=88 nlat=88 nenergies=10 submap=no nlongmin=0 nlongmax=0 nlatmin=0 nlatmax=0 chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). The exposure maps generated by this tool are meant to be used for *unbinned* likelihood analysis only. Do not use them for binned analyses. Computing the ExposureMap using /lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits .....................! real 72.13 user 67.00 sys 4.28 Generating the xml model: radLim = 0.001 maxRad = 12 normsOnly = True freeVariableSources = True Fixing all sources to their catalog values, except variable sources Creating file and adding sources from 4FGL Added 153 point sources and 0 extended sources Setting source of interest to: 4FGL J0438.4-1254 @ 69.6099 -12.9053 Creating the counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/cmap_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=160 nypix=160 binsz=0.25 coordsys="CEL" xref=69.6099 yref=-12.9053 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 0.89 user 0.21 sys 0.13 Creating the high resolution counts map: time -p gtbin evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits outfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/cmap_HighResolution_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits algorithm="CMAP" ebinalg="LOG" emin=30.0 emax=200000.0 ebinfile=NONE tbinalg="LIN" tbinfile=NONE nxpix=500 nypix=500 binsz=0.1 coordsys="CEL" xref=69.6099 yref=-12.9053 axisrot=0.0 rafield="RA" decfield="DEC" proj="AIT" hpx_ordering_scheme="RING" hpx_order=3 hpx_ebin=yes hpx_region="" evtable="EVENTS" sctable="SC_DATA" efield="ENERGY" tfield="TIME" chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). This is gtbin version HEAD real 1.01 user 0.23 sys 0.13 Computing the diffuse response: time -p gtdiffrsp evfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits evtable="EVENTS" scfile=/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits sctable="SC_DATA" srcmdl=/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/Model_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.xml irfs="P8R3_SOURCE_V2" evclsmin=0 evclass="INDEF" evtype="INDEF" convert=yes chatter=2 clobber=yes debug=no gui=no mode="ql" WARNING: version mismatch between CFITSIO header (v3.43) and linked library (v3.41). adding source EG_v02 adding sourcce GAL_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits.....................! real 39.32 user 35.75 sys 0.69 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/expmap_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/31083050/Model_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J0438.4-1254' 4FGL J0438.4-1254 Spectrum: PowerLaw 249 Prefactor: 2.972e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 250 Index: 2.433e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 251 Scale: 1.026e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/31083050/expmap_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/31083050/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/31083050/Model_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5484.94917348 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5484.94496056 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' 7.0861 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .74726E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' .36306E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' 14.205 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'Prefactor ' .18640E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'norm ' .59525E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' .96939E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' .43290E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 12.699 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' 43.607 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' 16.030 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'norm ' 1.1443 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' .24606E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'Prefactor ' 25.648 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'Normalizat' 1.3750 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 16 'Prefactor ' .70626 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .4960E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5484.944 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 105 CALLS 1143 TOTAL EDM= .69E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= .7% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor 6.7621 15.325 .14492E-06 -.51927E-01 2 Prefactor .0000 2.1707 -.50895E-07** at limit ** 3 Prefactor .55511E-10 4.9192 -.17510E-06** at limit ** 4 norm 14.240 4.0854 .69224E-07 .14776E-01 5 Prefactor .0000 4.1178 -.10463E-06** at limit ** 6 norm .0000 1.4447 .46008E-06** at limit ** 7 norm .11324E-07 18.057 -.36883E-06** at limit ** 8 Prefactor .0000 3.6325 -.12802E-06** at limit ** 9 Prefactor 12.685 12.308 -.22367E-06 -.91882E-01 10 Prefactor 43.512 9.7801 -.12021E-07 -.41802E-01 11 Prefactor 16.310 10.418 .25751E-07 .17193E-01 12 norm 1.1438 .27647 -.29803E-08 .30935E-03 13 Prefactor .44409E-09 10.010 .45551E-06** at limit ** 14 Prefactor 26.234 27.846 .21759E-06 -.67081E-01 15 Normalizat 1.3745 .24227 .28698E-05 .50897E-04 16 Prefactor .70627 .14866 .97707E-06 .67191E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 6.76213 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 5.55112e-11 norm = 14.2401 Prefactor = 0 norm = 0 norm = 1.13243e-08 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 12.6848 Prefactor = 43.5121 Prefactor = 16.3103 norm = 1.14385 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 Prefactor = 26.2344 Normalizat = 1.3745 Prefactor = 0.706266 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 5484.944 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 233 CALLS 1376 TOTAL EDM= .80E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor 6.7621 27.679 .37661E-03 -1.5656 2 Prefactor .0000 2.1614 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .55511E-10 4.9394 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 norm 14.240 16.165 .26549E-03 -1.5632 5 Prefactor .0000 4.0713 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 norm .0000 1.4446 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 norm .11324E-07 17.997 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 Prefactor .0000 3.6253 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor 12.685 14.559 .28084E-03 -1.5637 10 Prefactor 43.512 30.930 .15145E-03 -1.5576 11 Prefactor 16.310 31.575 .24989E-03 -1.5627 12 norm 1.1438 .27701 .41505E-03 -1.5687 13 Prefactor .44409E-09 10.009 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 14 Prefactor 26.234 35.761 .19750E-03 -1.5606 15 Normalizat 1.3745 .22042 .59877E-01 -.81369 16 Prefactor .70627 .12900 .42485E-01 -1.0328 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.00772e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 27.3624 2 1.28163e-06 3 3.00876e-05 4 16.1652 5 7.71486e-06 6 1.12701e-05 7 0.000902737 8 1.77127e-05 9 14.559 10 30.9304 11 31.5755 12 0.277014 13 0.00013219 14 35.7608 15 0.220571 16 0.129052 e GAL_V02 Working on... /lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits.....................! real 35.30 user 33.01 sys 1.46 Creating the likelihood object... obs = UnbinnedObs('/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits', '/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits', expMap='/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/expmap_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits', expCube='/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits', irfs='P8R3_SOURCE_V2') like = UnbinnedAnalysis(obs, '/lscratch/kocevski/31083113/Model_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.xml', optimizer='MINUIT') Using source of interest name: '4FGL J0438.4-1254' 4FGL J0438.4-1254 Spectrum: PowerLaw 249 Prefactor: 2.972e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 250 Index: 2.433e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 251 Scale: 1.026e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed Likelihood Fit Parameters: Event file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft1_filtered_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits Spacecraft file(s): /lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ft2_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits Exposure map: /lscratch/kocevski/31083113/expmap_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits Exposure cube: /lscratch/kocevski/31083113/ltcube_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.fits IRFs: P8R3_SOURCE_V2 Source model file: /lscratch/kocevski/31083113/Model_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.xml Optimizer: MINUIT Statistic: UNBINNED Performing an iterative likelihood fit... Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5484.94917348 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5484.94496056 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' 7.0861 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Prefactor ' .74726E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 3 'Prefactor ' .36306E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 4 'norm ' 14.205 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 5 'Prefactor ' .18640E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 6 'norm ' .59525E-06 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 7 'norm ' .96939E-05 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 8 'Prefactor ' .43290E-03 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 9 'Prefactor ' 12.699 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 10 'Prefactor ' 43.607 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 11 'Prefactor ' 16.030 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 12 'norm ' 1.1443 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 13 'Prefactor ' .24606E-02 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 14 'Prefactor ' 25.648 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 15 'Normalizat' 1.3750 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 16 'Prefactor ' .70626 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .4960E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. FCN= 5484.944 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 105 CALLS 1143 TOTAL EDM= .69E-09 STRATEGY=1 ERROR MATRIX UNCERTAINTY= .7% EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor 6.7621 15.325 .14492E-06 -.51927E-01 2 Prefactor .0000 2.1707 -.50895E-07** at limit ** 3 Prefactor .55511E-10 4.9192 -.17510E-06** at limit ** 4 norm 14.240 4.0854 .69224E-07 .14776E-01 5 Prefactor .0000 4.1178 -.10463E-06** at limit ** 6 norm .0000 1.4447 .46008E-06** at limit ** 7 norm .11324E-07 18.057 -.36883E-06** at limit ** 8 Prefactor .0000 3.6325 -.12802E-06** at limit ** 9 Prefactor 12.685 12.308 -.22367E-06 -.91882E-01 10 Prefactor 43.512 9.7801 -.12021E-07 -.41802E-01 11 Prefactor 16.310 10.418 .25751E-07 .17193E-01 12 norm 1.1438 .27647 -.29803E-08 .30935E-03 13 Prefactor .44409E-09 10.010 .45551E-06** at limit ** 14 Prefactor 26.234 27.846 .21759E-06 -.67081E-01 15 Normalizat 1.3745 .24227 .28698E-05 .50897E-04 16 Prefactor .70627 .14866 .97707E-06 .67191E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 6.76213 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 5.55112e-11 norm = 14.2401 Prefactor = 0 norm = 0 norm = 1.13243e-08 Prefactor = 0 Prefactor = 12.6848 Prefactor = 43.5121 Prefactor = 16.3103 norm = 1.14385 Prefactor = 4.44089e-10 Prefactor = 26.2344 Normalizat = 1.3745 Prefactor = 0.706266 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5484.94411286 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J0438.4-1254 Spectrum: PowerLaw 249 Prefactor: 4.351e+01 3.093e+01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 250 Index: 2.433e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 251 Scale: 1.026e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 493 Prefactor: 7.063e-01 1.291e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 494 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 495 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 492 Normalization: 1.375e+00 2.206e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 2.57 Ra Dec: 69.610 -12.905 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.43 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 8.76e-08 +/- 6.22e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 2.75e-05 +/- 1.96e-05 TS (Fixed Index): 2.57 Ra Dec: 69.610 -12.905 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 2.07899815391e-07 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.0160999795459 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/31083050/likelihoodResults_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 5484.7753765 delta logL = 0.1687363609 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 5484.762178 delta logL = 0.181934858301 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' 29.201 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 2.7979 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' 1.3470 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .71764 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .4960E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 5484.762 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 88 CALLS 292 TOTAL EDM= .52E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor 29.167 38.564 .74034E-05 -.36526E-02 2 Index 2.7983 .75462 .47834E-02 -.20532E-03 3 Normalizat 1.3468 .24708 .26703E-03 .11327E-03 4 Prefactor .71825 .15074 .21772E-03 -.48614E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 29.1671 Index = 2.79831 Normalizat = 1.3468 Prefactor = 0.71825 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 5484.762 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 25 CALLS 317 TOTAL EDM= .57E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor 29.167 33.779 .14807E-05 -1.5600 2 Index 2.7983 .66100 .19134E-03 -.45598 3 Normalizat 1.3468 .24652 .53405E-04 -.82180 4 Prefactor .71825 .15022 .87088E-05 -1.0282 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 5.74964e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 33.7797 2 0.663413 3 0.24674 4 0.150308 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 5484.76215874 delta logL = 0.181954117764 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J0438.4-1254 Spectrum: PowerLaw 249 Prefactor: 2.917e+01 3.378e+01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 250 Index: 2.798e+00 6.634e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 251 Scale: 1.026e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 493 Prefactor: 7.182e-01 1.503e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 494 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 495 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 492 Normalization: 1.347e+00 2.467e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 2.92 Ra Dec: 69.610 -12.905 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.80 +/- 0.66 Photon Flux (Free Index): 1.10e-07 +/- 7.65e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 2.46e-05 +/- 1.71e-05 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/31083050/cmap_HighResolution_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='1.61e-02', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='8.76e-08', energy_flux2='2.46e-05', photon_flux_error='6.22e-08', dlogl='1.82e-01', energy_flux='2.75e-05', photon_flux2='1.10e-07', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-08 22:42:52.389511', photon_index_error2='0.66', photon_index2='2.80', ts='2.57', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='0.71', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='2.08e-07', energy_flux_error2='1.71e-05', EG='1.37', time_epoch_completed='1783575772.39', return_code='0', job_id='31083050', GAL2='0.72', EG2='1.35', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='1.96e-05', photon_flux_error2='7.65e-08', ts2='2.92', photon_index='2.43' WHERE bin_id='2179' AND source_name='4FGL J0438.4-1254' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Wed Jul 8 22:42:52 PDT 2026 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 5484.944 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 233 CALLS 1376 TOTAL EDM= .80E-06 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor 6.7621 27.679 .37661E-03 -1.5656 2 Prefactor .0000 2.1614 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 3 Prefactor .55511E-10 4.9394 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 4 norm 14.240 16.165 .26549E-03 -1.5632 5 Prefactor .0000 4.0713 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 6 norm .0000 1.4446 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 7 norm .11324E-07 17.997 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 8 Prefactor .0000 3.6253 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 9 Prefactor 12.685 14.559 .28084E-03 -1.5637 10 Prefactor 43.512 30.930 .15145E-03 -1.5576 11 Prefactor 16.310 31.575 .24989E-03 -1.5627 12 norm 1.1438 .27701 .41505E-03 -1.5687 13 Prefactor .44409E-09 10.009 .42118E-03 -1.5708 WARNING - - ABOVE PARAMETER IS AT LIMIT. 14 Prefactor 26.234 35.761 .19750E-03 -1.5606 15 Normalizat 1.3745 .22042 .59877E-01 -.81369 16 Prefactor .70627 .12900 .42485E-01 -1.0328 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 8.00772e-07 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 27.3624 2 1.28163e-06 3 3.00876e-05 4 16.1652 5 7.71486e-06 6 1.12701e-05 7 0.000902737 8 1.77127e-05 9 14.559 10 30.9304 11 31.5755 12 0.277014 13 0.00013219 14 35.7608 15 0.220571 16 0.129052 Done. MINUIT Return Code (Fixed Index): 0 logL (Fixed Index) = 5484.94411286 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J0438.4-1254 Spectrum: PowerLaw 249 Prefactor: 4.351e+01 3.093e+01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 250 Index: 2.433e+00 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) fixed 251 Scale: 1.026e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 493 Prefactor: 7.063e-01 1.291e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 494 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 495 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 492 Normalization: 1.375e+00 2.206e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Fixed Index): 2.57 Ra Dec: 69.610 -12.905 Photon Index (Fixed Index): 2.43 +/- 0.00 Photon Flux (Fixed Index): 8.76e-08 +/- 6.22e-08 Energy Flux (Fixed Index): 2.75e-05 +/- 1.96e-05 TS (Fixed Index): 2.57 Ra Dec: 69.610 -12.905 Photon Flux Upper Limit: 2.07899815391e-07 ph cm-2 s-1 Energy Flux Upper Limit: 0.0160999795459 MeV cm-2 s-1 Saving results to: /lscratch/kocevski/31083113/likelihoodResults_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.txt Performing a free index iterative likelihood fit... Freezing all point sources, except source of interest... Done. Freeing candidate source... Done. Fit tolerance = 1 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 5484.7753765 delta logL = 0.1687363609 Fit tolerance = 0.0001 Performing likelihood fit... Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 5484.762178 delta logL = 0.181934858301 Fit tolerance = 1e-08 Performing likelihood fit... ********** ** 14 **SET NOWARN ********** PARAMETER DEFINITIONS: NO. NAME VALUE STEP SIZE LIMITS 1 'Prefactor ' 29.201 1.0000 .0000 .10000E+07 2 'Index ' 2.7979 1.0000 .0000 10.000 3 'Normalizat' 1.3470 1.0000 .10000E-01 10.000 4 'Prefactor ' .71764 1.0000 .0000 10.000 ********** ** 15 **SET ERR .5000 ********** ********** ** 16 **SET GRAD 1.000 ********** ********** ** 17 **MINIMIZE .4960E+05 .2000E-04 ********** MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. MIGRAD MINIMIZATION HAS CONVERGED. MIGRAD WILL VERIFY CONVERGENCE AND ERROR MATRIX. FCN= 5484.762 FROM MIGRAD STATUS=CONVERGED 88 CALLS 292 TOTAL EDM= .52E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER STEP FIRST NO. NAME VALUE ERROR SIZE DERIVATIVE 1 Prefactor 29.167 38.564 .74034E-05 -.36526E-02 2 Index 2.7983 .75462 .47834E-02 -.20532E-03 3 Normalizat 1.3468 .24708 .26703E-03 .11327E-03 4 Prefactor .71825 .15074 .21772E-03 -.48614E-04 ERR DEF= .500 Final values: Prefactor = 29.1671 Index = 2.79831 Normalizat = 1.3468 Prefactor = 0.71825 ********** ** 18 **HESSE ********** FCN= 5484.762 FROM HESSE STATUS=OK 25 CALLS 317 TOTAL EDM= .57E-09 STRATEGY= 1 ERROR MATRIX ACCURATE EXT PARAMETER INTERNAL INTERNAL NO. NAME VALUE ERROR STEP SIZE VALUE 1 Prefactor 29.167 33.779 .14807E-05 -1.5600 2 Index 2.7983 .66100 .19134E-03 -.45598 3 Normalizat 1.3468 .24652 .53405E-04 -.82180 4 Prefactor .71825 .15022 .87088E-05 -1.0282 ERR DEF= .500 Minuit fit quality: 3 estimated distance: 5.74964e-10 Minuit parameter uncertainties: 1 33.7797 2 0.663413 3 0.24674 4 0.150308 shell-init: error retrieving current directory: getcwd: cannot access parent directories: No such file or directory Done. MINUIT Return Code (Free Index): 0 logL (Free Index) = 5484.76215874 delta logL = 0.181954117764 Extracting fit parameters... 4FGL J0438.4-1254 Spectrum: PowerLaw 249 Prefactor: 2.917e+01 3.378e+01 0.000e+00 1.000e+06 ( 1.000e-13) 250 Index: 2.798e+00 6.634e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 (-1.000e+00) 251 Scale: 1.026e+03 0.000e+00 3.000e+01 5.000e+05 ( 1.000e+00) fixed GAL_V02 Spectrum: PowerLaw 493 Prefactor: 7.182e-01 1.503e-01 0.000e+00 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) 494 Index: 0.000e+00 0.000e+00 -1.000e+00 1.000e+00 ( 1.000e+00) fixed 495 Scale: 1.000e+02 0.000e+00 5.000e+01 2.000e+02 ( 1.000e+00) fixed EG_v02 Spectrum: FileFunction 492 Normalization: 1.347e+00 2.467e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e+01 ( 1.000e+00) TS (Free Index): 2.92 Ra Dec: 69.610 -12.905 Photon Index (Free Index): 2.80 +/- 0.66 Photon Flux (Free Index): 1.10e-07 +/- 7.65e-08 Energy Flux (Free Index): 2.46e-05 +/- 1.71e-05 Creating a high resolution counts map... INFO: Auto-setting vmin to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] INFO: Auto-setting vmax to 0.000e+00 [aplpy.core] Saving /lscratch/kocevski/31083113/cmap_HighResolution_804124801_804384001_4FGL_J0438.4-1254_daily_bin2179.png Cleaning up... ** Nuclear option initiated! ** Updating database... UPDATE lightcurve_data_v2 SET energy_flux_upper_limit='1.61e-02', comment='SUCCESS', photon_flux='8.76e-08', energy_flux2='2.46e-05', photon_flux_error='6.22e-08', dlogl='1.82e-01', energy_flux='2.75e-05', photon_flux2='1.10e-07', job_status='DONE', time_completed='2026-07-08 22:43:10.032767', photon_index_error2='0.66', photon_index2='2.80', ts='2.57', fit_tolerance='1e-08', GAL='0.71', photon_index_error='0.00', photon_flux_upper_limit='2.08e-07', energy_flux_error2='1.71e-05', EG='1.37', time_epoch_completed='1783575790.03', return_code='0', job_id='31083113', GAL2='0.72', EG2='1.35', return_code2='0', energy_flux_error='1.96e-05', photon_flux_error2='7.65e-08', ts2='2.92', photon_index='2.43' WHERE bin_id='2179' AND source_name='4FGL J0438.4-1254' AND cadence='daily'; Database successfully updated. Analysis Complete. Wed Jul 8 22:43:10 PDT 2026